Last week brought significant market shifts — from concerns about bursting investment bubbles to potential peace talks in Ukraine, and a major milestone for Eli Lilly. The S&P 500 posted its second decline in three weeks, while the Nasdaq recorded a third consecutive weekly drop. However, on Friday, US markets stabilised after dovish remarks from a prominent Federal Reserve official, with most stocks closing higher. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, explains why this is a positive signal and why last Thursday’s sharp intraday reversal, though counterintuitive, is technically a bullish indicator.
Stock markets swung sharply as NVIDIA’s post-earnings rally reversed into losses, triggering a sell-off on Wall Street. Robust US employment data and hawkish signals from US Federal Reserve officials dampened hopes of interest rate cuts, while defensive sectors held firm and oil prices slipped amid Ukraine peace talks. Japan unveiled a new stimulus package—the largest since the Covid crisis. Tim Gagie, Head of FX Advisory in Geneva, discusses how investors are navigating tough choices amid persistent volatility in precious metals, mixed economic indicators, and shifting currency flows, including notable Swiss franc selling this week.
NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang shrugged off concerns about an AI bubble on Wednesday, as the company surprised Wall Street with accelerating growth after several quarters of slowing sales growth. Technology-heavy indices in Asia are trading significantly higher this morning. Defence companies came under selling pressure after news of a potential US peace plan for Ukraine. Oil also fell on the news. Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research, shares his latest view on the black gold and dives deeper into the topic of data centres and related energy demand.
Investors grew increasingly cautious ahead of today’s highly anticipated NVIDIA earnings release, scheduled after market close in New York. The uncertainty weighed on equities, pushing stock indices lower and widening credit yield spreads. Notably, the equal-weighted S&P 500 held up relatively well, indicating that the downturn was not broad-based. Joining us today is Dario Messi, who shares his insights on navigating fixed income markets amid the current macroeconomic backdrop.
Equity markets saw another sharp decline yesterday as investors awaited Wednesday’s earnings report from artificial intelligence leader Nvidia and a closely watched US jobs report later this week. Sentiment was already fragile, and news that a prominent hedge fund had sold its Nvidia stake added further pressure. Our Chief Economist, David Kohl, shares his outlook on the upcoming wave of US economic data following the end of the government shutdown and explains what these developments could mean for the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy trajectory.
Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
After a rollercoaster session US equities rebounded by Friday’s close, with technology even ending the day in positive territory. Europe had earlier closed lower, mirroring Thursday’s US tech selloff. Overnight, Korean technology stocks drove the Kospi higher but China and Japan’s geopolitical tensions over Taiwan weighed on the broader market. Japan’s travel and tourism sectors took a hit today after China warned its citizens not to travel there. When it comes to the week ahead, watch out for the Fed minutes, a raft of US data being unleashed after the shutdown, and Nvidia’s all-important results on Wednesday. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical analysis covers likely trajectories for gold and the US dollar in today’s podcast, as well as revealing what the charts say about a year-end rally.
Markets turned risk-off after early optimism. European stocks reversed gains, with the STOXX 600 down 0.6%. In the US, hawkish Federal Reserve comments erased the relief rally: the Nasdaq dropped 2.3%, Bitcoin fell back below USD 100,000, and gold eased slightly. Odds of a December rate cut slipped to 50% following remarks by several Fed members, lifting US Treasury yields. US president Trump plans tariff cuts on food imports to tackle inflation. Brent crude rebounded from midweek losses. The dollar softened, the Swiss franc strengthened, the yen hit a record low against the euro, and sterling remains volatile. Weak Chinese data weighed on Asian equities, led by technology losses.
Tim Gagie, Head of FX Advisory Geneva, highlights that precious metals are trading with equity-like dynamics, the CHF goes from strength to strength, while the Japanese yen is under pressure.
We need to exclude tech stocks though. Whilst the S&P 500 rose, and the Dow Jones closed above 48,000 for the first time ever, the Nasdaq Composite closed lower yesterday, with investors further rotating out of technology and into industrials, financials and healthcare stocks. News of the end of the US government’s longest ever shutdown also provided a muted boost to Asia’s stock markets.European stocks closed broadly higher, continuing their upward trend this week. Even gold saw a relief rally. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research joins the podcast today to try to make sense of just what is driving the current rebound in the precious metal markets.
Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
European equities hit fresh highs, led by Swiss stocks on tariff hopes. In the US, the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished Tuesday’s session also at record levels while the Nasdaq Composite faced pressure after SoftBank exited its Nvidia stake and investors moved money away from technology stocks into other parts of the market. Joining the show today are Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, who discusses the potential end of the US shutdown from a bond perspective, and Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research, who shares his view on the final inning of the Q3 earnings season and why he thinks healthcare is in a good place.
Markets staged a broad-based rebound yesterday, driven by optimism that the US government shutdown may soon be resolved. Equities rallied, led by tech, while both Bitcoin and gold also moved higher. In Asia, early gains faded after China signalled potential restrictions on rare earth exports, and Japan’s bond auction underwhelmed. We also cover Fed Governor Miran’s dovish comments, ongoing delays in US economic data, and what to watch during today’s Veterans Day trading session. Joining us is Manuel Villegas from Next Generation Research, who shares his thoughts on Bitcoin’s Q4 performance so far, which has been overshadowed by broader economic uncertainty.
After a volatile week in equity markets – driven by valuation concerns surrounding tech and AI-related companies – stocks are climbing this morning on news that the US government shutdown may soon come to an end. Gold is also on the rise, potentially signalling the conclusion of its brief consolidation phase. Today, we’re joined by Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, who shares his insights on why he believes the year-end rally is gaining momentum.
Outplacement firm Challenger reported over 150,000 job cuts in October – the highest for the month of October in more than 20 years. US Treasury yields fell sharply, raising expectations of a December Fed rate cut, although some officials remain cautious. AI-related stocks dragged markets lower, but the selling was selective. In Europe, German industrial output beat forecasts but remains weak; while the Euro Stoxx 50 fell on disappointing earnings. In Asia, China’s exports unexpectedly declined for the first time in eight months. Richard Tang, Head of Research in Hong Kong, discusses the lack of short-term catalysts for China’s equity markets and our outlook on the AI investment theme, which is key to markets in Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan.
US, European and Asian markets have all reacted positively to news in the US yesterday. Private payrolls and ISM data revealed that the economy is more resilient than had been feared. Advanced Micro Devices’ Q3 earnings beat expectations, and their tide lifted other AI boats globally. And the Supreme Court hinted that it may well place limits on President Trump’s tariffs, although we’ll have to wait a while for any decision there. Our Head of Next Generation Research, Carsten Menke, provides insights into the rollercoaster ride that copper has been on recently, sharing his thoughts on what might come next.
Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
Global markets retreated yesterday as investors took a closer look at lofty AI valuations. The US dollar climbed to a three-month high, supported by persistent inflation concerns and the ongoing government shutdown. Commodities came under pressure, with both gold and oil slipping, while crypto markets saw sharp declines amid broader risk-off sentiment. In Asia, tech-led losses weighed on indices, and minutes from the Bank of Japan revealed a growing internal debate over potential rate hikes. Joining the show today are Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, who discusses the US public debt dynamics, and Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research, who shares insights on Q3 hyperscaler earnings, the AI bubble, and emerging market equities.
Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
Stock markets edged higher during the European and US trading sessions, buoyed by earnings and renewed investor enthusiasm around AI-driven deals and ahead of Palantir's highly anticipated earnings release after the close. Although the company surpassed earnings expectations, its share price tumbled post-market as concerns emerged over its current valuation. In today’s discussion, we’re joined by Manuel Villegas from Next Generation Research, who provides insight into the evolving opportunities and risks within the AI ecosystem.
Markets were buoyed by solid tech earnings, a positive Trump–Xi meeting, and a wave of AI-related deals last week. Nvidia single-handedly created an entire country’s economy in five days. Outside the tech sector, however, equity performance was more muted. European markets lagged, weighed down by persistent inflation and cautious central bank messaging. Meanwhile, emerging market equities posted their strongest year-to-date rally since the dawn of the internet era.
Joining the show is Markus Wachter from our Technical Analysis team. He shares insights on what seasonality suggests for the remainder of the year, what US equity market internals are signalling, and why copper may be on the verge of a secular breakout.
US Markets closed slightly lower on Thursday after hyperscaler earnings raised concerns about increasing AI spending, but Apple and Amazon results after the close provided a boost to futures. The mood was further elevated by an agreement between China and the US that seemingly delays the trade war by a year. To date, October 2025 is bucking the historical trend, with the big three US indices all in positive territory. Our Chief Economist, David Kohl, assesses this week’s central bank action and what to expect policy-wise going forwards. And Tim Gagie, Head of FX Advisory Geneva, provides a round up of what he is seeing with the Japanese yen, the US dollar and the euro, as well as the latest on silver and gold.
The US Federal Reserve delivered a widely anticipated rate cut, but growing divisions among policymakers spooked markets. Strong AI-driven spending fuelled big-tech earnings, but the outlooks dented the bullish mood. Eurozone markets gained on robust banking performance, while the main indices in the UK and Spain hit another all-time high. The Bank of Japan opted to leave rates unchanged at its meeting today. The meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi ended and has eased some global trade concerns – but underlying tensions persist. Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research, talks about rare earths as well as oil in light of the latest sanctions.
As European markets experience some profit-taking ahead of key central bank meetings, all major US stock indices closed at record highs. However, market breadth remains narrow, driven primarily by gains in just a few mega-cap technology stocks. Today, we welcome Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, who shares his outlook on upcoming interest rate decisions from the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank – and what these developments could mean for fixed income investors.
Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
Global equity markets rallied as optimism around US-China trade negotiations lifted investor sentiment. European trade-sensitive sectors led early gains, while Wall Street closed at new record highs, driven by strong performances in chip stocks. Gold sold off sharply and oil prices dipped. In tech, Qualcomm surged on its AI pivot, while AMD partnered with the US government on supercomputing. Argentina’s markets soared following political developments, and Japan signed new trade deals with the US. Joining the show today are Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research, who shares insights on the unfolding earnings season, and Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research, who covers the latest developments in crypto assets.