Defence stocks soared across the globe yesterday after US President Trump called for a bigger military budget. Meanwhile, technology shares stumbled, oil rebounded sharply, and precious metals gained ground. In Asian trading, Fast Retailing impressed with strong earnings, while Rio Tinto slipped on merger talks with Glencore. We also discuss the narrowing US trade deficit, the Fed’s dovish signals, and Switzerland’s muted inflation backdrop. Joining our show today is Tim Gagie, Head of FX/PM PB Geneva, with an update on metals and currencies.
Investors should prepare themselves for 2026 to be a year that rewards those who adapt early to the resets and rebalancing which are shaping the new investment landscape. So, what are the key themes?
In this edition of Moving Markets - The View Beyond, Bernadette Anderko sits down with Christian Gattiker, Head of Research, and Mark Matthews, Head of Research Asia, to discuss Julius Baer's Market Outlook 2026 and why it’s important not to let a single country or theme dominate portfolios. Asian equities, artificial intelligence, defensives, and European cyclical stocks all have a role to play. The conversation also covers fixed income positioning, the appeal of Australian dollar bonds, prospects for further US dollar weakness, and whether gold's remarkable run can continue.
Global equity markets closed marginally lower yesterday as they weighed the US administration’s moves on Venezuela and the potential for escalation regarding Greenland. Nevertheless, there were some bright spots: the Nasdaq was boosted by Alphabet, and the Kospi saw gains this morning as Samsung announced impressive Q4 earnings guidance. Defence stocks rose in Europe, but fell in the US, for different reasons. Amidst the surge in precious metals prices, Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, explains why he believes that silver prices have moved too far, too fast of late, and why investors need to distinguish between flow-driven and fundamentals-driven price moves. Tune in to find out where he sees prices going from here.
Global equities surged with US, European, and Asian markets reaching new highs, brushing aside geopolitical concerns. Copper and precious metals spiked on supply concerns and strong demand, while bond markets priced in more rate cuts following softer European inflation data. Still, geopolitical risks and upcoming economic data remain in focus, creating the first challenges of the year in Asian trading this morning. On today’s show, Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, shares what these developments mean for the bond market, and Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, outlines his sector outlook for 2026.
Equity markets have kicked off the first full trading week of the year on a strong note, with major indices in the US and Europe reaching record highs despite persistent concerns over Venezuela and its potential geopolitical ripple effects. Gold and silver continued their breathtaking rally while government bond yields fell a little. Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research, shares his insights on the situation in Venezuela and the outlook for oil prices.
Global markets surged in 2025, fuelled by economic growth, AI optimism, and central bank rate cuts, though there were sharp swings in volatility at times. Commodities diverged: oil ended lower while precious metals soared, led by gold’s biggest annual gain in 46 years. 2026 started on a strong footing, driven by semiconductor stocks. Over the weekend, geopolitical tensions spiked with the arrest of Venezuela’s Nicolas Maduro, lifting gold as Brent held near USD 60 amid oil supply concerns. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis Research, expects the USD and related assets to remain in a bear market, while precious metals are likely to continue to shine.
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Excerpt from Beyond Markets Podcast, originally published on 25.09.2025.
This episode is part of a special two-week series featuring highlights from Julius Baer’s recent Beyond Markets podcasts. Our regular show that starts with daily market news returns on Monday 5th January.
When one thinks of safe-haven currencies, the Swiss franc, Japanese yen, and US dollar typically come to mind. But with capital flows diversifying away from the US dollar, interest in alternative safe havens is increasing. The Singapore dollar, one of Asia’s most stable and best-performing currencies, stands out as one such potential candidate. In this episode, we explore the unique characteristics of the Singapore dollar, its central role in Singapore’s monetary policy, and how investors can position themselves to benefit from the Singapore dollar’s strength.
Excerpt from Beyond Markets Podcast, originally published on 08.04.2025.
This episode is part of a special two-week series featuring highlights from Julius Baer’s recent Beyond Markets podcasts. Our regular show that starts with daily market news returns on Monday 5th January.
In this episode of Beyond Markets we take a closer look at water. With water scarcity and extreme weather events on the increase, what do listeners need to know about water-related challenges and opportunities from both a societal and investment perspective? We are joined by Carsten Menke and Maeve Timoney from Julius Baer’s Next Generation Research team to answer these questions and much more.
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Excerpt from Beyond Markets Podcast, originally published on 13.08.2025.
This episode is part of a special two-week series featuring highlights from Julius Baer’s recent Beyond Markets podcasts. Our regular show that starts with daily market news returns on Monday 5th January.
In this episode of Beyond Markets, Mark Matthews, Head of Research Asia at Julius Baer, speaks with General David H. Petraeus, Partner at KKR and former US Army General, about leadership lessons from his distinguished military career and how they translate to the corporate world. Their conversation explores recent conflicts, including the India–Pakistan skirmish, the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, and the Russia–Ukraine war, highlighting the critical role of deterrence. They also examine the future of US energy policy amid shifting dynamics in the Middle East and global oil markets, consider China’s growing influence in the Western Hemisphere and its implications, and explore regions with strong potential for development.
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Excerpt from Beyond Markets Podcast, originally published on 24.08.2025.
This episode is part of a special two-week series featuring highlights from Julius Baer’s recent Beyond Markets podcasts. Our regular show that starts with daily market news returns on Monday 5th January.
Investing in private markets has the potential to create long-term value in portfolios. But how can qualified and professional investors navigate the current marketplace? What does the private equity market look like today? Which factors are driving potential opportunities? And where might the risks lie?
In this episode of the Beyond Markets podcast, Fiona Kenyon, Head of Private Markets Specialists at Julius Baer talks to Jack Weingart, Chief Financial Officer at the global alternatives firm TPG, to discuss these questions as they evaluate the current landscape and reflect on the potential risks and rewards.
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Excerpt from Beyond Markets Podcast, originally published on 12.09.2025.
This episode is part of a special two-week series featuring highlights from Julius Baer’s recent Beyond Markets podcasts. Our regular show that starts with daily market news returns on Monday 5th January.
In this episode of Beyond Markets, we take a closer look at agentic AI, which is no longer just a concept. AI agents are actively reshaping how tasks get done, decisions are made, and content is created. These autonomous systems mark a shift from passive AI models to active agents that can reason, act, and self-improve. We are joined by Manuel Villegas from Julius Baer’s Next Generation Research team to answer these questions and much more.
Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
Excerpt from Beyond Markets Podcast, originally published on 01.10.2025.
This episode is part of a special two-week series featuring highlights from Julius Baer’s recent Beyond Markets podcasts. Our regular show that starts with daily market news returns on Monday 5th January.
Structured products can provide investors with capital protection, enhanced yield, or targeted exposure to specific market scenarios. While they may appear complex to those less familiar with them, this episode of the Beyond Markets podcast aims to demystify these instruments. Helen Freer is joined by two Julius Baer experts, Conrad Bruggisser and Raffaele Perroncello, to explain how structured products work and how they can add value to a portfolio. They also discuss the key risks to consider, why market volatility is relevant and how the products can be tailored to suit different investor profiles.
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In trading yesterday, lower inflation led the way, technology earnings brightened the day. A UK cut, the ECB’s soft tone, sent markets climbing, risk well-known. Across the seas, Japan stood tall, rates are the highest since the mid-2006 call. And to close the year with rhythmic cheer, Tim Gagie, Head of FX Advisory Geneva, penned a verse sincere.
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Markets showed little festive spirit yesterday with almost all equity markets globally declining as investors continued to rotate out of key artificial intelligence names. The sell-off was triggered by concerns around financing issues of a data centre project in the US. In contrast, energy and financial sectors outperformed, supported by rising oil prices and dovish remarks from a Federal Reserve member ahead of today’s key events: interest rate decisions by the ECB and BoE, as well as the release of US inflation data. On today’s show, Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research, provides deeper insights into the oil market, while Nicolas Jordan, CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis, discusses asset allocation strategies for the coming year.
Markets digested a mix of headlines yesterday. In the US, the latest jobs report pointed to a resilient but cooling labour market. US equities were mostly subdued, though Tesla stole the spotlight with a record-breaking rally on robotaxi optimism. Oil prices swung sharply, first falling on hopes of a Russia-Ukraine peace deal before rebounding on renewed geopolitical tensions, while gold edged higher as uncertainty lingered. In Europe, defence stocks slipped as peace talks gained traction, and the EU made waves by reversing its planned ban on combustion-engine cars. Asian markets were broadly higher, buoyed by strong export data from Japan. We’re joined by Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, for an update on bond markets and central banks, and Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research, who shares insights on their recent upgrade of Swiss equities and their views on the financials sector.
European equities rallied after industrial production data came in stronger than expected, while Wall Street traded cautiously ahead of a packed schedule of key labour‑market and inflation releases between today and Thursday. The US dollar, oil, gold, and bitcoin all slipped as investors absorbed a noisy flow of macro headlines. On today’s show, Dr. Damien Ng from Next Generation Research joins us to discuss the latest developments in biotech - and why he believes the outlook for the sector is finally brightening after years of underperformance.
The story that started with Oracle in the middle of last week continued with Broadcom on Friday. Despite its earnings and guidance actually breezing past expectations, the company's stock had lost 11% by the end of the day, and this filtered through to other tech names in both the US and Europe. Asia is also lower this morning with China in particular delivering some disappointing growth data. Nevertheless, gold and silver continue to climb and on today’s podcast our Head of Technical Analysis, Mensur Pocinci, weighs in with the technical view on whether the rally can continue. He also explains why he believes that most investors are underestimating how weak the US dollar is as we head towards year end.
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Equities rallied broadly following the Federal Reserve’s post-rate-cut communication, though big tech underperformed amid concerns over valuations and leverage. At the same time, precious and industrial metals regained investor attention as the US dollar weakened and expectations for Chinese stimulus grew. Today, we’re joined by Tim Gagie, Head of FX Advisory in Geneva, who shares his insights on the recent dynamics in currency and metal markets.
The US Federal Reserve cuts rates to 3.5%–3.75% but three dissenting members signal deepening divisions. It surprises with a new bond buying programme to start in the coming days. US small caps moved to an all-time high, US Treasury yields dipped, and the USD fell. Yet, Oracle’s outlook and additional financing needs are unsettling investors. Nasdaq futures and Asian technology stocks are lower. In Japan, strong demand at a 20-year bond auction eases yield pressures. With a record high in silver and gold close to its recent highs, Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, delivers our outlook on the two metals following the Fed decision.
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We’ll finally get the last monetary policy decision of the year from the US central bank today and a 25 basis point cut is firmly priced in. Almost more important will be the dot plot, economic projections, and comments from Jerome Powell after the main event. Global equity markets have been relatively muted in the last 24 hours aside from some company specific news that you can catch up on in today’s podcast. Strong earnings growth and an accommodative Fed are a strong backdrop going forwards, as detailed by Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research, who also provides more clarity on his recent downgrade of Industrials to Neutral. He even provides a sneak peek at his preferred sectors for 2026.