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Wednesday 19th November 2025
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Markets are nervous ahead of NVIDIA earnings around this time tomorrow. The only real moves have been in equities. NAB’s Ray Attrill says, for once, the Aussie dollar hasn’t felt the brunt of the risk-off sentiment.
We’ve also been seeing the first splattering of jobs data. The non-farm payrolls data tomorrow will be for September. ADP’s numbers for September were up, but overnight we saw their weekly numbers showing weekly falls through October. Weekly jobless claims were quietly added to a Bureau of Labour research database showing recent claims had not moved significantly since before the shutdown.
The RBA minutes yesterday reaffirmed concerns over capacity constraints, with the wage price index released today along with UK CPI numbers.
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Tuesday 18th November 2025
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There have been no major market moves overnight as investors wait for the non-farm payrolls data on Thursday and NVIDIA earnings middle of the week. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril joins Phil to talk about how the potential reaction to each, as well as today’s fall in the Yen after Japan’s soft GDP read. Plus, Canada’s CPI, the better-than-expected NY Fed’s Empire State manufacturing index and an upgrade to the EU’s growth forecasts. It’s another relatively quiet session ahead before the big numbers start trickling in.
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Monday 17th November 2025
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President Trump announced a relaxing on beef tariffs, alongside other food produce, to tackle cost of living pressures for US shoppers. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says it’s not necessarily good news for Australian farmers because it potentially reduces our tariff advantage, which has seen a sizeable increase in Australia beef exports to the US this year.
Meanwhile, the US data drought officially finishes on Thursday when September’s non-farm payrolls data is released. Fed speakers have been continuing to sound hawkish, opening the potential for no cut in December.
Phil and Taylor also discuss how markets are reacting to the UK’s budget uncertainty, China’s activity data on Friday and what to look out for this week, including Australian wages data on Wednesday.
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Friday 14th November 2025
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Historically America’s big-tech firms have seemed like a safe bet for investors. They had strong revenue streams, and they were ploughing profits back into innovative ideas for future revenue growth. That’s changed since the pandemic with the rapid growth of AI, with firms embarking on debt-fuelled expansion in what Phil suggests is a good old-fashioned land-grab.
Lincoln Valentine is a senior analyst for international equities at JBWere. He agrees that there’s a land grab going on, and debts are rising, but he says their earnings continue to grow and their valuations reflect that. The question is, what happens next? When returns don’t match the level of investment made, or when one or two players start to cut their spending?
Phil asks where are the risks, who has the edge and how long will it all last? It’s a high stakes game, that nobody dares to ignore.
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Friday14th November 2025
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Sally suggested as much yesterday. Now the recovery in the unemployment rate in Australia yesterday has confirmed it. NAB is not expecting any further easing by the RBA in this cycle. Ken Crompton talks through the numbers that led to this decision – actually, the employment data probably had the least to do with NAB’s call.
Meanwhile, in the US, the Fed is still divided, although speakers are sounding increasing hawkish. Perhaps it’s the lack of data that’s getting to them. It remains uncertain what will be available and when, but CPI and the unemployment rate for October are already identified as casualties.
Ken and Phil also talk through data from New Zealand and the UK and prepare for a data dump from China.
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Thursday 13th November 2025
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It’s hard to imagine the RBA cutting rates anytime soon, after yesterday’s housing loan data showed a sharp rise, including a record for new investment loans. NAB’s Sally Auld says it’s a sign for the RBA that their policy is not as restrictive as they thought it was even a month ago. Today’s employment numbers are unlikely to shift that dial.
The good news from the US is that an end to the shutdown is likely to be voted for in the next few hours. The bad news is that some of the missed data that was expected to start coming out in the next week or so, could well not be published at all. Leaving the risk that the Fed will go to it’s next meeting still flying blind.
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Wednesday 12th November 2025
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It was reasonably constructive news from the latest NAB Business Survey according to Taylor Nugent. Confidence fell 2pts in October, but it remains above the long run average and echoes concerns from Andrew Hauser about rising capacity utilisation. Aussie consumer confidence jumped yesterday, despite expectations that the RBA will cut rates later, or not at all. Meanwhile, it looks like the US shutdown could end as soon as today, and we can expect a swag of delayed data as soon as next week. The UK Chancellor probably didn’t want to see the data that landed on her desk yesterday morning – unemployment grew faster than expected. But it has added to the expectation of a BoE cut in December.
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Tuesday 11th November 2025
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Equity markets have bounced back on the expectation that we are days away from an end to the US shutdown. Phil points out that Polymarket odds shifted from yesterday, when 56% saying it won’t be resolved by November 16th, to now 89% saying it will be! NAB’s Ray Attrill says markets are behaving like it’s a done deal, although it could be an interim fix that has to be revisited in annuary. Meanwhile the Aussie is strong, and bond yield are higher after a hawkish talk from the RBA’s Andrew Bauser yesterday, which has many questioning whether the central bank’s easing cycle has already finished.
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Monday 10th November 2025
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Signs of a weakening global economy are mounting—though with limited US data this week, the picture remains incomplete. Still, the sharp drop in the Michigan consumer sentiment survey and a contraction in China’s October exports suggest more than just a slowdown. Even Canada’s falling unemployment rate comes with caveats.
Closer to home, all eyes are on Australia’s labour market data and the NAB business survey. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril joins Phil to unpack what’s shifting, what’s stalling, and what’s next for tariffs and the US shutdown.
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Friday 7th November 2025
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Australia has for a long time being criticised for being a dig up and ship out economy, and the need to diversify has been talked about for decades. With that in mind, and fresh from the recognition during the COVID emergency of how fragile global supply chains can be, the Australian government established the National Reconstruction Fund. $15 billion was set aside for investment in businesses in growth areas, that will boost the economy, create jobs and drive innovation. Their new CEO is former NAB executive David Gall, who joins Phil to talk through the work of the Fund. What sorts of companies do they work with? How do they measure success? And, importantly, how do they ensure that they are not simply crowding out investment that could be made by commercial investors?
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Friday 7th November 2025
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Normally all eyes would be on the release of the non-farm payrolls data today, but the shutdown has put paid to that. The Fed’s Goolsbee says the lack of data makes it hard to advocate rate cuts; ‘when its foggy, let’s just be a little careful and slow down’. The job is made harder when available data conflicts with each other. Yesterday we were talking about the positive ADP jobs numbers, today NAB’s Taylor Nugent highlights the Challenger jobs survey that reported 153kjob layoffs in October, alongside very low hiring rates. Market sentiment has shifted, with US shares down, the dollar lower, and bond yields falling, with an increased expectation for a December rate cut.
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Thursday 6th November 2025
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Europe’s revised PMIs suggest a slow but steady recovery, while U.S. services data came in stronger than expected. There’s plenty to feel optimistic about — despite political turbulence. Donald Trump faces mounting challenges: New York has elected a young Muslim mayor in a historic shift, and the Supreme Court has begun reviewing his emergency tariff measures.
Meanwhile, markets are in a buoyant mood. Equities are climbing, treasuries are selling off, and sentiment is turning risk-on.
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Wwednesday 5th November 2025
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Those who believed we were on the final furlong in the race to stop inflation, will have to think again. Central banks are concerned, and cuts are being pushed back. NAB’s Ray Attrill points to yesterday’s RBA statement that there are uncertainties about whether their policy is too restrictive. In other words, could this mean we’ve already reached the end of the easing cycle? The Bank of Canada’s Tiff Macklem said they weren’t looking to cut soon; the real question was how long they will hold rates for.
Meanwhile, equities took a hit last night, not helped by the CEOs of Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley adding to concerns about debt fuelled growth by the Mag Seven. And the revision to European and US PMIs should be worth watching, because there were some sharp moves in the provisional data that might be washed out today.
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Tuesday 4th November 2025
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The Australian housing sector is certainly picking up, with prices rising and a sharp increase in dwelling approvals last month, particularly for units. An interesting backdrop for today’s RBA meeting. NAB’s Sally Auld says house prices are not targeted by RBA policy, but the wealth effect does increase consumer spending, something which the central bank will be cognisant of. Does that mean the RBA’s next move could be up? That’s a question Phil puts to Sally and one that Michele Bullock is likely to face during the press conference this afternoon. We also look at the latest PMI and ISM manufacturing numbers for the US, showing the wide divide in the two-speed economy.
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Monday 3rd November 2025
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Markets didn’t have a lot to respond to on Friday, with no big data releases and no major surprises in what reports there were. Earnings probably had the biggest influence at the end of the week, with Amazon reporting 20% growth in AWS, providing further evidence of the growth in demand for cloud and AI services. NAB’s Taylor Nugent joins Phil to pick through the bones from the rest of Friday’s news, including Euro area inflation, Tokyo CPI, China PMIs, Canada’s GDP and another output increase from OPEC+. Plus, a look ahead to this week’s central banks, including the RBA, BoE,, Norges bank and Riksbank.
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Friday 31st October 2025
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There are clear differences between the Australian and New Zealand economies right now, and Phil explores them with BNZ’s Doug Steele and NAB’s Gareth Spence. Doug talks of New Zealand’s rolling recession, with three years of slow GDP per capita growth, weak domestic demand and rising unemployment. Gareth paints a rosier picture for Australia, where headline GDP has been driven by strong population growth which has helped to lift business confidence. But there are similarities - inflation risks, rising unemployment and no clear answer to stalled productivity. How much of the difference between the two economies can be blamed on the comparative approach by each central bank, and how much room do they have to manoeuvre if things turn south?
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Friday 31st October 2025
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Donald Trump and President Xi have done a deal that staves off the 100% tariff hike, and actually sees existing tariffs fall a little. Phil asks NAB’s Gavin Friend why markets aren’t more excited after what Trump called a ‘truly great’ meeting. Meanwhile uncertainty has kept rates on hold for the ECB and the Bank of Japan. The Yen was the outlier in currency moves overnight. Today’s Tokyo CPI might indicate whether they made the right call. There was a mixed picture from yesterday’s tech earnings (it’s not good news all the time), with Apple and Amazon reporting shortly.
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Thursday 30th October 2025
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The FOMC cut rates, but the Fed was very divided, with one dissenter wanting a 50bpcut, the other wanting to keep rates on hold. NAB’s Sally Auld gives her take on the mood of Powell’s press conference, that pushed bond yields and the dollar higher.
At home yields and the Aussie dollar pushed higher after a surprise upside for the latest CPI read. NAB is still not expecting a ratee cut before May, and that may not happen if unemployment rises too quickly.
The BoJ and ECB meet today, and shortly earnings for Microsoft, Alphabet and Meta on the day that NVIDIA became a $5 trillion company!
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Wednesday 29th October 2025
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The S&P hit a new intraday high as markets prepare for the Fed’s assumed cut tomorrow, alongside a swag of tech earnings. NAB’s Ken Crompton talks through how, despite all that hope, consumer confidence slid in the latest Conference Board survey. Today’s CPE data for Australia will be uber-important in setting the direction and tone for the RBA, whilst the Bank of Canada makes their call overnight tonight.
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Tueday 28th October 2025
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The market shift we highlighted yesterday morning continued through the session yesterday and overnight, with gold losing ground, US equities rising and the Aussie dollar the main beneficiary in currency markets. NAB’s Ray Attrill says the ussie was also helped by the PBoC fixing the Renminbi at his highest level since October. Tay says the Aussie was also influenced a little by the RBA’s Michelle Bullock’s Fireside Chat yesterday.
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