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Friday 19th December 2025
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Australia has managed to steer its own course through a turbulent 2025. Taylor Nugent explains how the RBA resisted the urge to slash rates early in the year, instead holding firm as inflation proved more stubborn than expected. That stance kept the economy balanced while other central banks lurched between easing and tightening. Compared with New Zealand’s harsher approach and the US’s tariff‑driven dilemmas, Australia’s policy mix looks measured – not perfect, but enough to avoid the extremes.
Rodrigo Catril adds that the Aussie dollar has been resilient, even if it hasn’t fully matched the US dollar’s swings. Its fortunes are now more tied to China and Asian sentiment than Wall Street, and with local rates set to rise while the Fed eases, he sees the currency heading towards 70 cents.
Ken Crompton rounds out the picture with bonds, noting strong demand for Australian debt and a widening yield gap with the US. Together, the NAB team sketch a story of a country that hasn’t soared, but hasn’t stumbled either – Australia has held its own.
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Friday19th December 2025
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Markets seem to be heading to the end of the year on a fairly steady note, with currencies little changed today and equities pushing higher . Bond yields are mixed, oil is nudging back above $60 a barrel, and silver’s up and down like a yo‑yo.
For our final morning edition of the year, NAB’s Gavin Friend joins us from London to unpack the latest central bank moves: the Bank of England’s razor‑thin vote to cut rates, the ECB holding firm, and the Bank of Japan poised to lift rates to their highest since 1995. We also touch on Norges Bank and the Riksbank staying put, US inflation data and jobless claims, and a surprisingly strong GDP print out of New Zealand.
Plenty to chew over before the Christmas break — from hawkish cuts to resilient economies, and what it all means for the Fed, fiscal policy, and the year ahead.
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Thursday 18th December 2025
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It’s a big Thursday, with markets bracing for the BoE and ECB after UK CPI surprised with outright deflation. German sentiment disappointed again, and Japan’s stronger exports added to the case for a BoJ hike tomorrow. All eyes are on the November U.S. CPI release later today. Equities remain under pressure with no Santa Claus rally in sight, oil prices edge higher amid Trump’s Russian tanker threats, and silver hits fresh highs. Meanwhile, New Zealand shows signs of recovery with improved confidence and GDP prospects. Ray Attrill joins for his final time in 2025.
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Wednesday 17th December 2025
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A new rate call from NAB: the RBA will move rates higher twice in the first half of next year. Phil talks to NAB’s Taylor Nugent before they dissect the latest non‑farm payrolls data from the US for October and November. Plus, the mixed picture in the latest global PMIs. The surprise outsider was the UK, the only place to show an improvement in services and manufacturing numbers. That’s not going to stop the Bank of England, though, which is expected to cut rates this week. We are a day away from the central bank deluge.
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Tuesday 16th December 2025
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China’s economy is still struggling to find momentum, with retail sales growth slipping to its weakest pace since 2022 and investment dropping sharply. Property prices are sliding too, adding to the lack of confidence, and oil markets are feeling the knock‑on effect. Japan, on the other hand, looks brighter: the Tankan survey beat expectations, strengthening the case for a rate hike later this week. Meanwhile, Europe’s industrial production is picking up and Canada surprised with outright deflation in November.
Today the focus is on the late running US jobs data for November – finally something up to date, although we’ll have to guess what happened in October.
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Monday 15th December 2025
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It’s a pivotal week for global markets as central banks take centre stage. The long‑awaited, up‑to‑date U.S. Non‑Farm Payrolls report finally lands, just days after the Fed’s decision — a timing mismatch that leaves investors scrambling. In the UK, GDP figures arrived with sharper precision, revealing an economy sliding into decline right before the Bank of England meets. And across the globe, the ECB, the Bank of Japan, and others are lining up with their own policy calls. NAB's Sally Auld talks us through the busy week ahead.
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Friday 12th December 2025
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NAB’s trading division, headed by Tim McCaughey, facilitates trades requested by a range of clients, from hedge funds, through to corporates and pension funds. So how does it work? Tim says it works like a grocery store - they buy the goods, add a margin and sell on. Except its not a grocery store, its trading rooms in Australia, London, New York and Asia. But just like a retailer, the secret is knowing what to buy, how to price it and how long to hang onto it.
Phil tries to pry into how Tim and his team balance the risk in all this buying and selling, how the liquidity is managed, and the role of AI and algorithms in today’s trading environment. And has President Trump been good or bad for traders? Tim talks us through how things went on Liberation Day.
A fascinating chat, even if Tim refuses to give away the contents of his secret sauce.
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Friday 12th December 2025
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Australian government bond yields have been surging to multi year highs as speculation mounts about a rate rise early in the new year. But yields fell a little yesterday and overnight after weaker jobs numbers. NAB’s Gavin Friend says yields have fallen more widely as a response to the FOMC meeting yesterday, with questions about whether we will only see one cut next year. The US trade deficit fell again - is this a sign President Trump’s policies are working? At zero percent, the Swiss Bank decided they can’t go any lower. And UK GDP is out today - will it be as gloomy as an English winter’s day?
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Thursday 11th December 2025
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The Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points, its third consecutive cut this year, but there were several dissenters. Sally Auld talks through the decision, the statement and the dot plot, which now forecasts just one cut next year. Will that even be necessary? The Bank of Canada left rates on hold, whilst Christine Lagarde suggested that growth forecasts in Europe might be revised up. Sally suggests all three central banks could be reaching the end of their easing cycle, if they are not there already. Today, Australia’s employment numbers will be a focus, with trade data for Canada and the US still hopelessly out of date.
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Wednesday 10th December 2025
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The RBA’s worry about rising capacity utilisation has increased the possibility of a rate hike as soon as February. We dig into what the NAB business survey revealed and how traders are pricing the odds. Overseas the focus is on the Fed early tomorrow morning (expected to cut) and the Bank of Canada overnight (expected to hold). Polus, what are the latest JOLTs numbers telling us about the US labour market?
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Tuesday 9th December 2025
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The RBA meets today — no big moves expected, but markets are watching closely for hints about when rates might rise. Over in Europe, bond yields climbed after an ECB policymaker signalled that the era of easing is over and the next direction is up. Meanwhile in the U.S., policy rates are still falling — though the debate is how far they’ll go. Even Kevin Hassett, tipped as Trump’s likely pick for the Fed, is cautioning against too many cuts next year. And don’t forget today’s NAB business survey: it could reveal fresh insights on capacity utilization, the very metric that rattled the RBA last time.
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Monday 8th December 2025
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It’s the RBA and the Fed this week. We know what to expect- the Fed is likely to cut rates, the RBA its likely to be on hold. We’re also expecting hawkish commentary, particularly from the RBA. NAB’s Ken Crompton talks through the impact on bond yields, with Aussies10 year yields up 1.37% over the last week. Bond yields in Japan have continued to rise on the expectation of a rate hike from the Bank of Japan, and in Canada after a sharp fall in the unemployment rate on Friday.
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Friday 5th December 2025
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Australia has managed what many other economies haven’t. We have brought down inflation without driving the economy into recession. NAB’s Sally Auld says it’s a direct contrast to the RBNZ approach, which was to hit the economy hard, and slower demand would mean there was lots of spare capacity, making it easier for the economy to re-establish itself. The RBA approach has been much more softly-softly, which means jobs have been maintained and growth has continued. The problem is, there’s much less spare capacity. If we see too much growth, then prices could rise, forcing the RBA to lift rates to slow things down. Is that where we are now? Can you slow the economy with just one rate rise? Sally talks to Phil about what could happen next.
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Friday 5th December 2025
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Bond yields rose in Australia and Japan yesterday and overnight. In Japan 10-year JGBs reached 1.94%, the highest level since 2007. NAB’s Skye Masters says it relates to the continued expectation of a rate hike by the BoJ, and the higher yields have created a buying opportunity for investors. Yields have risen in Australia as household spending for October came in higher than expecting, suggesting the RBA might set a hawkish tone to their next meeting, indicating a rate hike is coming sooner than many have been expecting.
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Thursday 4th December 2025
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US Treasury yields fell after the ADP jobs number came in weaker than expected. Normally, perhaps, people wouldn’t pay too much attention — they’re often wrong — but when it’s all you’ve got, it matters. It’s another reason for a rate cut by the Fed next week.
Meanwhile, Aussie GDP also came in weaker than expected… though maybe strong in the right places. NAB’s Ken Crompton joins Phil to look at the implications of that, and they decipher the latest global services PMIs and look ahead to the release of Australia’s trade balance this morning.
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Wednesday 3rd December 2025
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Markets have a tiny bit more risk appetite today, which has helped push US equities higher and helped Bitcoin resume its rise to new horizons (perhaps). The Yen lost a large chunk of yesterday’s gains, but JGB yields remain high, alongside expectations for a BoJ rate hike. At home, NAB’s Taylor Nugent says the latest GDP partials will do little to change the expectation for a 2.2% rise, year on year, a little higher than the RBA is forecasting. And Michelle Bullock fronts up to the senate economics committee.
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Monday 2nd December 2025
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Japan’s bond yields pushed much higher, to levels not seen since the GFC after Gov Ueda signalled that a rate hike for December really was on the cards. After many months with inflation above their target range Phil asks NAB’s Rodrigo Catril what’s changed? And how much global contagion have we seen from Japan’s bond sell off.
Cryptocurrencies took a particularly big hit overnight, and US equities ended their rally, with a weaker than expected ISM manufacturing read. Today GDP partials for Australia and NZ’s terms of trade are amongst the highlights.
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Monday 1st December 2025
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For all the volatility that we saw in November we actually finished the month with the Australian dollar and US equities back where they started from. There have been movements in precious metals however, with gold bouncing back and silver hitting an all-time high on Friday. NAB's Ray Attrill actual joins Phil to talk through the latest market moves and the latest data including German inflation, Canada's GDP, Tokyo CPI and China's PMIs. They also look ahead to Australia's inflation numbers this week.
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Friday 28th November 2025
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Australia is the third biggest exporter of cotton and has a reputation for quality. But Adam Key, CEO of Cotton Australia, says the differential might be changing as other producers lift their game. We do have the advantage, though, that we produce some of the highest yields in the world, but that is being challenged. Liz Stott is Chair of Cotton Australia and is a farmer from Leeton in the Riverina. She says there are years when there just isn’t enough water and production has to be cut back. It’s also has higher input costs than many other agricultural products which makes it harder to make a profit. But for the communities where cotton is grown the success of these farms is vital for local employment and supporting industries.
This week Phil talks to Liz and Adam about the challenges for Australia’s cotton industry, and how Trump’s America is adding to the problem. But the answer rests with Australia’s sustainability credentials.
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Friday 28th November 2025
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Thanksgiving might be a US celebration, but it seems Australia and New Zealand both have a lot to be thankful for, unless you were hoping for lower interest rates. NZ’s retail sales yesterday were higher than expected, and business confidence was also strong. In Australia private new capital expenditure was high – reminiscent of the mining boom early this century, says NAB’s Sally Auld. Meanwhile, equity and bond markets in the US were closed for Thanksgiving, and with an early close today it might be another quiet session to end the week.
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