Sabba and Charlie are back for a special Christmas episode. A 2-hour deep dive split into two parts.
In the first, the chaps dive into the $100M ARR frenzy across AI startups, break down the Claude Opus 4.5 release, and debate the escalating LLM wars between Google, OpenAI, and Anthropic. They also discuss Sergey Brin’s return to Google, the opportunity emerging around the ChatGPT App Store, and why prediction markets are starting to compete with traditional media.
In the second, they announce the 2025 awards, sharing their picks for the best product, the best trend, the best distribution startup, and the best comeback story, before closing off with their 2026 predictions.
00:00 Intro – Napkin Math Christmas Special
00:53 Why founders can hate Christmas
01:45 Sabba's baby announcement (and life update)
02:55 $100M ARR Frenzy in AI startups
07:56 Google AI Studio & Unfair Advantage
09:47 Are these AI startups actually profitable?
11:37 When will we see $1B ARR companies?
12:21 Replit’s long-term advantage & Opus 4.5
16:10 LLM Wars (Google vs. ChatGPT vs. Anthropic)
17:33 Google’s vertical AI advantage explained
19:47 Sergey Brin’s return to Google
21:19 Is AI a winner-take-all market?
31:09 ChatGPT App Store opportunity
39:58 What's the hype of Prediction Markets
42:47 Startup opportunities around prediction markets
50:25 2025 Napkin Math Awards (Best product, trend, distribution & comeback)
01:02:27 Why Google now leads AI
01:04:12 Bear case for Google
01:06:29 Comparing Google’s position to Nvidia’s rise
01:08:40 Honorable mention (AI Video’s breakout year)
01:09:30 Why models outpaced products in AI video
01:11:40 What to watch heading into 2026
After a mini hiatus the boys are back with a banger. 5 startup idea frameworks you can use to start the next unicorn or profitable bootstrapped business. Plus, they inadvertently start the Ben Tossell fan club, and talk about making the UK rich again.
After spending weeks in hospital with a broken leg, Charlie has had plenty of time to think about B2B SaaS lessons for the pod, and he delivers. The chaps also chat about VEED's new CTO hire, their Fabric 1.0 launch and brainstorm existing businesses that could inject AI to get to $100m quickly.
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Today Sabba and Charlie break down the Figma IPO and speculate on which company will be the next Figma. They question whether the chat interface for AI is outdated, and debate if DeepMind might be the greatest acquisition of all time, plus who’s most likely to win the AGI race. They also dig into the UK’s online safety act, why VPNs are booming, and wrap up with a very cheeky “recording blocker” startup idea.
Sabba talks about how he uses ChatGPT, Charlie talks use cases for Claude Code and the duo debate whether the UK is an impossible place to bootstrap. Sabba also share lessons on hiring top talent early, and dissect Duolingo’s $1billion freemium play (with a 15% churn rate) before comparing it to VEED’s freemium vs free trial approach.
The boys are back talking about Loveable's insane growth and $200m raise, the dangers of founder liquidity, plus more AI chat (of course). Charlie turns Sabba into BusinessGuruGPT prompting him with how he'd grow an eSIM business to $1m in a year. All this, and more, in this week's episode of NAPKIN MATH.
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Sabba and Charlie kick things off with some napkin math on how to make £26k per year in pure profit selling fans, then dive into a the real money maker; an AI automation consultancy. They talk about the rise of the “VEED (or Indie Beers) Mafia,” and discuss JB's Ahrefs-style tool for LLMs.
After a hiatus that included a weekend at Glastonbury and a failed recording, the boys are back, and they are on fire. They break down the business of the Glastonbury festival and some new startup ideas around it, they talk about the Figma S1 filing and the insane numbers behind the software platform and Charlie talks about the future of Ramen Space potentially becoming a nation state.
On this episode of Napkin Math, Sabba and Charlie explain why “small bets” are a terrible idea for most founders. They unpack how VEED ranks #1 for “AI video generator” (and other competitive keywords), explore Ben’s idea for a dream analysis app, the surprising business case for astrology, and how AI agents could thrive in markets like Nigeria. Sabba also shares why he believes the global adoption of stablecoins is inevitable.
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There’s been a major catfight on the internet this week: Trump vs. Elon. So, Charlie did what any good podcast host would do and distilled the best lessons SaaS founders can take from the drama. The guys also share feedback from listeners, chat about opportunities in TikTok Shop, discuss why companies need to reinvent themselves, and of course, Charlie gets Sabba into trouble.
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Fresh off the launch of VEEDs new AI, Sabba is excited about the company having built their own fully fledged AI model, so breaks down how much it cost to build it. Charlie, meanwhile has had some bad news about his SaaS app, Cosy, potentially being killed off by Slack's new restrictions. The chaps also fire off some "Loveable for X" business ideas, with the main opportunity in gaming.
The boys have made it to 10 episodes, somehow. They are still talking about AI, this time after the impressive Google Gemini launch they discuss the possibilities (including getting a new podcast co-host). Sabba talks about the pastries he had at 10 Downing Street and if they think Jony Ive's $6bn Open AI deal is worth it.
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Charlie is back from Dracula's castle and Sabba is back from running a marathon. They are both arriving inspired. They do some Napkin Math on the economics of the running industry and the opportunities there, and how long it will be before they can pump out daily Dracula movies.
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After 7 beautiful episodes, the MRR show is dead. But fear not, Napkin Math is born from its ashes. Sabba and Charlie discuss the performance of the show, dig into where Sabba invests his angel money, do a business breakdown (some actual napkin math) before going on a tirade on founders why founders aren't working hard enough...
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Sabba is tired after being at a trade show all week for VEED, but was it worth it? Sabba and Charlie discuss the cost and results. But there's nothing better than a pick me up recording with BBQ crisp-eating Charlie Ward, who finally has some MRR for his SaaS app. The chaps talk all things AI, opportunities, SaaS drama and more.
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Sabba went to Sri Lanka and came back with fire in his belly. He's ready to make money from the tariffs and so he discusses with Charlie how he'd do it. This got them thinking about the lack of energy in the US at the moment, and why they're bullish on the UK as a place to build. They wrap up talking about the biggest mega trend to make money with in 2025.
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B2B SaaS drama has got spicy recently, with both 11x and Deel making headlines. Sabba and Charlie give their take on why the companies got in hot water and if it's justified. Sabba also gives his thoughts on the future of VEED as they storm towards their $100m ARR goal and what happens next for the company.
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This week Sabba and Charlie still struggle to get their audio recorded properly* but the content is top notch. Dubbed the UK's answer to My First Million, the two kick off with debating if the UK is better than the US for building a startup. Sabba questions Charlie's sanity starting a coworking space in London, before explaining how much VEED spent on bright green advertising on the NYC subway.
*(salty Producer James writing this)
Charlie and Sabba are back three weeks later for their weekly podcast, bringing you some banger business ideas. The chaps dive into Exploding Topics and discuss opportunities in ADHD, creating a Third Space style martial arts gym and building a better dentist. They're also bullish on Project Europe.
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Charlie and Sabba are back, fighting through a challenging remote connection, bringing you a cracking set of business ideas. Charlie brings a few interesting product discoveries from Indie Beers in Lisbon and Sabba stumbled across a $5-10k MRR idea while in a Ford Fiesta.
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