The AI crash in the US is finally hitting home: the projected 80-point gap down for the Nifty this morning forces traders to decide instantly whether domestic DII strength can overcome the most significant tech liquidation we have seen in weeks
Good morning, I'm Prem, and this is News That Move Markets, your sharp, three-minute blast of actionable intelligence to dominate the Monday trading session.
The global handover is dominated by a major risk-off event, stemming almost entirely from the US technology sector. On Friday, the S&P 500 plunged 1.1% to 6827.41, and the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite dropped a significant 1.7% to 23195, recording its worst day in three weeks. This pain was concentrated in the AI infrastructure trade, where the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, our proxy for the chip supply chain, plummeted a massive 5.1%. This wipeout was triggered by corporate anxiety around colossal CapEx plans, specifically from Oracle, coupled with concerns about data center delays.
Asian markets this morning are showing weakness, reacting directly to Wall Street's tech fear. The Nikkei 225 is currently down 1.2% at 50226 points, ahead of the Bank of Japan meeting this week. Meanwhile, the Hang Seng Index is trading lower at 25734, representing a 242-point drop, reversing some of the previous session’s momentum.
Crucially, the Gift Nifty is signaling a significant gap down at the open. Compared to Friday’s closing figure of 26137, the current price hovering around 26050 indicates an approximate 80-point negative start for the domestic market. This confirms that the severe US tech shock is translating directly into opening weakness here.
However, remember the structural firewall underpinning our market: Domestic Institutional Investors, or DIIs. On Friday, FIIs sold assets worth ₹1114 Crores, but DIIs countered this aggressively, logging a formidable net buy figure of ₹3868 Crores into the cash market. This 3.5-times absorption rate ensures a powerful structural floor beneath any initial technical selling pressure.
The mandate for India Inc. is shifting rapidly. Geopolitical instability remains the single biggest future risk for nearly 50% of Indian CXOs. This fear is met by a powerful opportunity: new intelligence reveals an untapped export potential exceeding $35 billion in the Russian market alone, primarily in Pharmaceuticals and Engineering goods. This macro news provides a clear, fundamental counter-trade to the tech panic.
For traders, the action is defined by rotation. You must keep technology on a technical short or hedge radar immediately at the open, given the massive 5.1% Semiconductor Index collapse and its direct correlation to contracting US client sentiment. Conversely, look to accumulate strong domestic financials. HDFC Bank’s US ADR closed positively at +0.75%, and ICICI Bank also showed resilience, closing up +0.13%. This positive bias confirms global confidence in Indian banks as defensive, domestic growth plays.
In commodity space, Brent crude is holding steady at a comfortable low level of $61.38 per barrel, easing fiscal and inflationary stress. This stable energy environment minimizes risk for the broader economy. Bitcoin is showing strength in the $88025 to $90496 range, confirming that capital is rotating within the global risk complex, rather than exiting it entirely.
Today requires highly selective trading: short or hedge the IT sector as a tactical move, but deploy that capital immediately into the structural strength of domestic banking, engineering, and pharmaceutical exporters. The Nifty must hold the crucial psychological support near 26050. If DII conviction holds this line, infrastructure and banking stocks will lead the bounce back. Trade with conviction, this Prem signing off.
The provided text is an excerpt from a Weekly Market Master Brief targeting sophisticated Indian traders and investors, covering the period of 8–12 December 2025. This brief details the week's financial performance, noting that the Nifty 50 surrendered the 26,000 mark due to initial "Fed Jitters" and an operational crisis at IndiGo, though a Relief Rally occurred after the Federal Reserve delivered an anticipated rate cut. Crucially, the document highlights a "Money War" where Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) bought approximately ₹14,000 Crores, successfully absorbing significant foreign selling, which prevented a market crash. The report also summarises key Global Cues, such as the Dovish Fed commentary, cooling US bond yields, and crashing Brent Crude prices, which offered a macro tailwind for India. Finally, it outlines the Outlook for the Week Ahead, suggesting a neutral to slightly bearish trend with the market likely consolidating between 25,800 and 26,200.
Indian benchmarks delivered a strong session, closing decisively above the psychological 26,000 mark, reinforcing the narrative that India’s domestic structural resilience is successfully neutralizing foreign capital outflows.
The Nifty 50 advanced 0.57% to settle near 26,047, while the BSE Sensex closed 0.53% higher. This rally was an extension of the recovery sparked by the US Federal Reserve's rate cut, but the real story lies in the structural shift underpinning this move. Despite Foreign Institutional Investors offloading over 2,000 crore rupees worth of equities in the prior session, Domestic Institutional Investors provided a massive counter-force, buying shares worth nearly 3,800 crore rupees. This institutional divergence, supported by relentless mutual fund SIP inflows, has created a robust liquidity floor that is insulating the market from foreign sentiment, allowing the domestic growth story to shine.
The session was defined by a classic rotation of funds, favoring domestically oriented cyclical industries. The Metals, Real Estate, and Oil and Gas sectors led the market higher. Specifically, the Nifty Metal Index was the outstanding performer, confirming investor conviction in India's capital expenditure theme. On the flip side, we saw some mild defensive rotation, with the Nifty IT Index registering a marginal decline. This underperformance reflects cautious capital movement out of export-oriented IT stocks and into high-beta, infrastructure-linked names.
The stock of the day belonged to Tata Steel, which surged over 3.3 percent to become a top Nifty 50 gainer. This jump was fundamentally driven by the company’s decisive strategic blueprint for aggressive domestic capacity expansion. The board approved plans to add significant steel capacity in India by FY32 and sanctioned the acquisition of a 50 percent stake in Thriveni Pellets for 636 crore rupees. This proactive move is highly margin-accretive, ensuring feedstock security and signaling that the corporate sector is actively executing growth plans aligned with the national manufacturing thrust.
Looking ahead, the Nifty’s strong close above 26,000 places it firmly above its critical Classic Pivot point of 25,978. Moving averages across all major timeframes signal a "Strong Buy" outlook, suggesting bulls are in control. For the coming session, the immediate floor rests at 26,017, which must be defended to maintain momentum. The next major test lies at the Resistance 2 level of 26,076. A break above this level is crucial, as it could force the unwinding of heavy Call positions concentrated near the 26,000 strike, potentially confirming a broader breakout from consolidation. Conversely, a failure to hold would see the index test immediate support at 25,920.
Globally, European markets were trading in constructive positive territory, with the DAX up over half a percent. However, US futures presented a mixed picture, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures showing slight declines. This continues to reflect a rotation out of expensive AI-linked technology stocks in the US following disappointing forecasts from companies like Oracle. Meanwhile, Bitcoin maintained its position, trading up near 92.5 thousand dollars, holding steady as global policy clarity settles in.
The structural resilience demonstrated today, coupled with the India VIX dropping sharply to a new one-month low of 10.07, indicates high institutional confidence and conviction in India's domestic growth trajectory. While traders should remain mindful of residual FII selling and weakness in global tech cues, the bias remains firmly with the domestic bulls, ready to defend the 26,000 base. The market has effectively shown that local muscle now outweighs foreign volatility.
The baton handover from the US was decidedly bullish, albeit selective. The US Federal Reserve delivered its third consecutive interest rate cut, lowering the key funds rate to a range of three-point-five to three-point-seven-five percent. Crucially, Fed Chair Jerome Powell provided distinctly dovish commentary, effectively ruling out any imminent rate hikes. This commitment to lower rates structurally favors risk assets globally, including Indian equities, by lowering the US ten-year Treasury yield to approximately four-point-one percent. The US Dollar Index also slipped, hitting its lowest level since October.
This dovish signal drove the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P five hundred to new closing records, surging one-point-three percent and zero-point-two percent respectively, showing a clear rotation into non-technology blue-chip companies. However, the Nasdaq Composite lagged, dropping zero-point-three percent. This split was triggered by Oracle, which plummeted nearly eleven percent after reporting higher capital spending but softer revenue than expected. This is critical: institutional money is demanding execution and efficiency, not just AI narrative, a trend that warrants scrutiny for our own IT pack.
Our market resilience remains anchored by Domestic Institutional Investors. On Thursday, FIIs booked profits, registering net selling two thousand Crore rupees. But DIIs aggressively stepped in, injecting a massive three thousand seven hundred Crore rupees. This continuous, structurally sticky DII inflow acts as the primary stabilizing force, absorbing foreign selling pressure and providing a strong technical floor for the Nifty.
Listen closely for actionable intelligence on two key sectors.
First, the Metal and Mining space needs your attention. Hindustan Zinc is a direct beneficiary of the unprecedented silver rally. Global spot silver has surged recently, crossing sixty three US dollars an ounce. The primary driver is silver's reclassification as a US critical mineral, elevating it to a strategic industrial commodity essential for solar and electronics. This structural re-rating fuelled strong buying in Hindustan Zinc, one of the world's largest integrated silver producers, whose shares jumped nearly five percent. This theme suggests long-term demand growth for select producers.
Second, Automobile and related exports face an immediate, sharp headwind. Mexico, a major export destination for India's manufactured goods and vehicles, has approved significant tariff hikes of up to fifty percent on certain Indian imports. This move directly impacts major Indian car exporters, dealing a serious blow to up to one billion dollars worth of shipments. Automobile export companies that rely heavily on Mexico, our third-largest car export market, must now re-evaluate strategies immediately.
On commodities, crude oil prices are still weakening, despite geopolitical noise, which is a big macro positive for India. WTI Crude is trading around fifty-seven point nine-six dollars per barrel, near multi-week lows, primarily due to global surplus expectations. This structural weakness is a massive tailwind for India's current account deficit and helps mitigate imported inflation. Meanwhile, Bitcoin, a proxy for global risk appetite, climbed toward ninety-four thousand dollars following the Fed cut, although it later handed back some gains. Standard Chartered still maintains a bullish outlook, projecting Bitcoin could reach one hundred thousand dollars by the year end.
Final thought for today: Leverage the domestic dominance. The market is enjoying a dual tailwind—global liquidity expansion and favorable crude prices. Use the expected Gift Nifty gap-up to focus on domestic cyclicals and financials, sectors positively anchored by the strong HDFC Bank ADR close. But hedge against the tactical risk presented by the Mexico tariff bombshell. Identify exporters facing those fifty percent duties and approach them with caution.
Welcome back to News That Move Markets. I am Prem, and today we unpack a dizzying session on Dalal Street where bulls delivered a decisive rebound, yet the currency market flashed a warning sign. After three brutal days of losses, the Indian equity market staged a significant, broad-based rally on Thursday, positioning the Nifty 50 firmly above the critical 25,850 mark. The key driver? Liquidity relief flowing directly from Washington, D.C.. But here is the critical dichotomy: India’s benchmarks surged even as the Indian Rupee plunged to a fresh all-time low of 90.48 against the US Dollar in intra-day trade. This market is telling us that structural growth and global monetary easing are overriding short-term currency turbulence.
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The turnaround was dramatic, successfully terminating a three-session streak of declines. The Nifty 50 finished strong at 25,898.55, climbing 0.55%, while the S&P BSE Sensex advanced 0.51% to settle at 84,818.13. This positive trajectory allowed Indian benchmarks to outperform most of their Asian peers.
The fuel for this reversal came from the US Federal Reserve, which enacted its third consecutive rate cut of 2025, lowering its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points. This move lowered the lending rate to a range of 3.50% to 3.75%. The significance here is that lower US rates diminish the appeal of holding dollar-denominated debt, encouraging Foreign Institutional Investors to consider emerging markets like India.
Accompanying this rally was a sharp contraction in expected market volatility. The India VIX, which tracks market anxiety, slipped a notable 4.69% to 10.40. This reading indicates exceptionally low perceived risk and signals a high degree of institutional comfort following the resolution of policy uncertainty.
The rally was fundamentally healthy, spreading risk appetite deep into the market structure. The Nifty Midcap 100 Index surged 1.00%, and the Nifty Smallcap 100 Index advanced 0.82%, both outperforming the frontline index.
Sectoral action was concentrated in cyclically exposed groups. Nifty Auto led the advance, surging 1.22%, with Nifty Metal right behind, gaining 1.06%. Metal stocks benefited from the softening US dollar, which is generally supportive of global commodity prices. Rate-sensitive financial heavyweights like Kotak Mahindra Bank gained over two per cent, helping the overall index. Leading the Nifty 50 gainers were Adani Enterprises, rising 2.65%, and Jio Financial Services, also up nearly 2.65%.
Sentiment was further bolstered by optimistic comments regarding the India-US Bilateral Trade Agreement talks, with the US stating they received the "best" offers ever from India. Adding to the long-term confidence was Microsoft’s commitment to a massive $17.5 billion infrastructure investment in India’s AI ecosystem, a powerful endorsement of the country’s technological trajectory.
However, investors must proceed with caution. The US Federal Reserve indicated a potential pause in future cuts and suggested only one further cut in 2026. Asian markets closed lower, reflecting weak sentiment as they digested this cautious forward guidance. Furthermore, US stock index futures suggested strong global market weakness carrying over into the subsequent session, with the NASDAQ 100 Futures showing a sharp drop. This outlook mandates a highly selective and cautious approach for the immediate future.
This is Prem, signing off from News That Move Markets. Good investing, and we’ll talk tomorrow.
Let’s get straight to the headline that matters. The US Federal Reserve has delivered exactly what the market ordered. In a decision announced late last night Indian time, the Federal Open Market Committee cut benchmark interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the target range down to 3.50 to 3.75 percent. This marks the third consecutive cut, signaling that the global cost of capital is coming down.
The reaction on Wall Street was immediate and decisive. We saw a return to risk-on positioning. The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped over 1.3 percent intraday, eventually closing more than 1 percent higher at roughly 48,057. The S&P 500 added nearly 0.7 percent, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite rose about 0.33 percent.
So, what does this mean for your portfolio in Mumbai this morning?
If you look at the GIFT Nifty, the derivative contract that acts as our crystal ball for the opening bell, it is trading at 25,966. That is up more than 130 points from previous levels. Mathematically, this implies the Nifty 50 is poised for a significant gap-up opening, potentially reclaiming the psychological 25,900 level right at the start.
This is a stark contrast to where we left things yesterday. On December 10, the Sensex dropped 275 points and the Nifty shed 81 points, marking their third straight day of losses. That selling was driven by nervousness ahead of the Fed event. Now that the event risk is resolved, that fear trade is unwinding rapidly.
We need to talk about the flow dynamics because they tell a fascinating story of who is holding the bag. Yesterday, Foreign Institutional Investors, or FIIs, were net sellers to the tune of 3,760 crore rupees. They were de-risking before the Fed announcement. However, Domestic Institutional Investors, the DIIs, stood like a firewall, buying a massive 6,224 crore rupees.
The foreign investors who sold yesterday are now caught on the wrong side of the trade. With global liquidity easing, we expect to see aggressive short-covering from FIIs today, which should add fuel to the morning rally.
Sector-wise, keep a close watch on Information Technology. The IT index dropped nearly 1 percent yesterday on recession fears. With the Fed easing and US markets stabilizing, IT should be the prime beneficiary of this rebound.
You should also look at Metals. Even in a falling market yesterday, the Metal sector was the top gainer, up 0.45 percent. This was driven by a surge in commodity prices. Silver has hit record highs above 60 dollars an ounce, and copper and zinc are firming up. Stocks like Hindustan Zinc and other metal majors are in a sweet spot right now.
However, it is not all smooth sailing. There are specific pockets of turbulence. If you hold aviation stocks, be careful. InterGlobe Aviation, which runs IndiGo, fell 3.3 percent yesterday. The government has mandated they cut 10 percent of their scheduled flights due to operational issues and pilot shortages. This is a regulatory headache that overrides the positive macro sentiment.
Also, keep an eye on crude oil. Brent Crude has quietly crept up to 62 dollars and 55 cents per barrel. While the equity market parties on cheap money, rising oil prices are a silent tax on the Indian economy, and that could cap the upside for oil-consuming sectors like paints and logistics.
On the primary market front, we saw a massive debut for Meesho yesterday, which surged 53 percent above its offer price. This proves that despite general market caution, there is still a huge appetite for high-growth, new-age internet stories.
To wrap up the strategy for this morning: The trend has shifted. The liquidity tap is open. We are expecting a gap-up opening driven by banking and IT. But, do not chase the market blindly in the first 15 minutes. Let the initial short-covering frenzy settle. The bias is bullish, but with crude oil inching up, stick to quality large-caps and defensive heavyweights that the DIIs are supporting.
A thirty-five billion dollar vote of confidence from Amazon gets drowned out by the silence of the Federal Reserve. Welcome to a market holding its breath.
I am Prem, and this is News That Move Markets. It was a day where the long-term narrative collided with short-term anxiety, and anxiety won. The Nifty 50 gave up the key 25,800 level, closing at 25,758, down about a third of a percent. The Sensex shed 275 points to settle at 84,391. This marks the third straight session of losses, but the real story wasn't the drop itself, it was the disconnect between massive corporate news and the market’s sour mood.
Let us unpack the why. We had a headline that in any other week might have triggered a rally. Amazon committed an additional 35 billion dollars to India by 2030, targeting AI, exports, and job creation. That brings their total commitment to a staggering levels. But the markets barely blinked. Why? Because everyone is looking past New Delhi and staring directly at Washington. We are hours away from the US Federal Reserve’s final rate decision of the year. While a rate cut is largely priced in, the fear lies in the unknown forward guidance for 2026. This uncertainty kept Foreign Institutional Investors on the selling side, effectively neutralizing domestic optimism. It is a classic case of immediate macro headwinds overpowering structural tailwinds.
When capital gets nervous, it rotates, and today that rotation was brutal for the Consumer Durables sector. The index dropped over 1.7 percent, making it the worst performer. We saw sharp profit booking in high-flying names like Dixon Technologies and Trent, as investors questioned valuations amidst a cautious spending environment. However, it wasn't all red. Smart money moved into global cyclicals, helping the Nifty Metal index close in the green. And a special mention goes to Eicher Motors in the auto space. On a day when the broader market fell, Eicher hit a record high, proving that strong company-specific fundamentals can still decouple from the broader market beta.
Our Stock of the Day, however, is on the other end of the spectrum. It is InterGlobe Aviation, the parent of IndiGo. It was the top loser on the Nifty 50, plummeting over 3 percent. This wasn't just vague market noise; it was a specific operational crisis. The Civil Aviation Minister has stepped in, reportedly asking the airline to cut its planned flights by 10 percent to manage a wave of cancellations and operational failures. For an airline that built its entire brand on being an on-time machine, a regulatory cap on capacity is a severe blow. The market immediately priced in the double negative of lost revenue and reputational damage, sending investors heading for the exits.
Looking at the technical setup for tomorrow, the Nifty closing below 25,800 is a sign of weakness, but there is a silver lining. The India VIX, our fear gauge, remains subdued around the 11 mark. It suggests that this selling is calculated de-risking rather than panic. Furthermore, Nifty futures are trading at a premium of nearly 100 points over the spot price. This indicates that traders are betting on a relief rally once the Fed event is out of the way. Watch the 25,700 zone closely tomorrow; if that holds, we might see a bounce.
Globally, the mood mirrors our own. Asian markets were mostly lower, though Hong Kong's Hang Seng managed a gain thanks to positive news regarding Nvidia chip exports. In the US, futures are flatlining as traders refuse to make a move before the Fed speaks. Meanwhile, in the crypto space, Bitcoin continues to hover near the 93,000 dollar mark, showing surprising resilience even as equities wobble.
So, the takeaway for tomorrow is simple. Ignore the noise until the Fed speaks. The long-term story, evidenced by Amazon's massive bet, is intact, but the short-term price action belongs to Jerome Powell. Stay calm, and let the dust settle.
The bond market is flashing a warning sign, and foreign investors are rushing for the exit. But amidst the sell-off, a massive deal between Tata and Intel might just be the game changer we needed.
Good morning, I'm Prem, and this is News That Move Markets.
Let's look at the global setup. Wall Street is treading water. The Dow dipped four-tenths of a percent, and the S&P 500 slipped marginally, while the Nasdaq managed to stay just barely in the green. The villain here is the US 10-year Treasury yield, which has climbed to 4.19 percent. That is the highest level in weeks, and it is putting serious pressure on equity valuations right before the Fed's big decision today.
In Asia, the nervousness is contagious. The Hang Seng is down over one percent, and the Nikkei is trading slightly negative. For us, the Gift Nifty is hovering around 25,904. That is a slight discount to our spot close yesterday, signaling a muted or slightly negative start. The sentiment is cautious, and nobody wants to make a big bet before Jerome Powell speaks tonight.
But while the index looks dull, the news flow is explosive. The biggest story of the morning is Tata Electronics. Reports suggest they have secured Intel as the first major client for their 14-billion dollar semiconductor plant in Dholera. This is not just a corporate win; it is a validation of India's chip ambitions. If confirmed, this is a massive re-rating trigger for the entire Tata group ecosystem.
On the flip side, the IndiGo crisis is getting worse. The airline is now planning to cut 400 to 500 flights. We are talking about shrinking capacity right in the middle of peak travel season. While this is a disaster for their stock, watch the other listed aviation players. Spiking airfares due to lower supply could be a short-term windfall for competitors.
We also have a US trade delegation in India today. With the Trump administration signaling tariff shifts, this meeting is critical for sectors like IT and Pharma. Keep an eye on any headlines regarding market access.
Now, look at the money war. It is getting intense. Foreign Institutional Investors dumped another 3,760 crores yesterday. They are relentlessly selling. But Domestic Institutions? They are acting as a fortress, buying a massive 6,224 crores in a single session. This is a classic transfer of ownership from weak global hands to strong domestic hands.
Quick check on the stress monitor. Brent Crude continues to be our best friend, trading low at 62 dollars. Silver is on a tear, up nearly 5 percent to cross 60 dollars, while Gold is holding steady around 4,210 dollars. Bitcoin has woken up again, climbing over 2 percent to trade above 92,600 dollars. And the Rupee? It is flat at 90 against the dollar.
So, here is your trade setup. The Gift Nifty suggests a quiet open, but the volatility will kick in later. Do not fight the FII selling in large-cap banks, but look for opportunities in the Tata group on the Intel news. The DII support at lower levels is rock solid, so deep dips are for buying, not panicking.
That is your intelligence for the day. I am Prem, and this is News That Move Markets. If you found this actionable, hit subscribe. Good luck, and trade safe.
The Nifty has surrendered the 26,000 mark, but don't let the red index fool you; the retail army is buying the dip while the institutions are rushing for the exit.
The scoreboard looks ugly at first glance. The Nifty 50 shed over 120 points to close at 25,840, while the Bank Nifty lost more than 300 points. But here is the data point that matters most. The India VIX actually dropped over one and a half percent to settle near 11. Usually, when the market falls, fear spikes. Today, fear cooled off. This tells us that the sell-off wasn't panic; it was a controlled, calculated correction. The Smart Money is de-risking ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting, leaving the heavyweights weak.
However, the market breadth tells a completely different story. While the giants stumbled, the Nifty SmallCap 100 surged over one percent. This is a classic divergence. Foreign investors and institutions are selling the index, but retail investors and HNIs are aggressively hunting for bargains in the broader market.
In terms of sectors, the pain was concentrated in interest-rate sensitive pockets. Nifty Realty crashed three percent and IT shed one percent. The trigger was the US 10-year bond yield spiking to 4.18 percent. When yields rise, high-beta sectors like Realty and high-valuation sectors like IT immediately feel the heat. Capital is rotating out of these rate-sensitive zones and finding shelter in individual stock stories.
The stock of the day is undoubtedly Kaynes Technology. After a brutal four-day losing streak, the stock roared back, surging nine percent. The catalyst was a double dose of confidence. Management clarified the accounting concerns raised by the Kotak report, and JPMorgan stepped in with a bullish note, calling it the cheapest stock in Asia Pacific. That combination triggered a massive short-covering rally. Also, a brief mention for IndiGo. After a relentless seven-day crash, it finally ended in the green, up a quarter percent. But be careful. With refunds piling up, this looks more like a dead cat bounce due to selling exhaustion rather than a fundamental turnaround.
Globally, the cues are mixed. European markets are split, with the UK's FTSE in the red and Germany's DAX slightly green. However, US Nasdaq futures are trading up nearly point two percent, attempting to stabilize after yesterday's pullback. Everyone is holding their breath for the Fed policy.
Technically, the setup for tomorrow is fragile. The Nifty has decisively closed below the psychological 26,000 level. That mark has now flipped from support to a tough resistance ceiling. The immediate support to watch is 25,700. If the bears manage to drag the index below that, the door opens for a slide down to 25,500.
My closing thought is this. We are witnessing a battle between institutional caution and retail optimism. With the VIX low and heavyweights weak, the index might remain dull, but the stock-specific action is heating up. Stick to the small-cap stories, but keep your index trades light until the Fed event is out of the way.
That is your post-market wrap. Stay disciplined, and I will catch you tomorrow morning.
The bears have tasted blood below 26,000, and the global handover suggests they are coming back for more. The Gift Nifty is signaling a near 100-point gap down at the open, so brace for impact.
Good morning, I'm Prem, and this is News That Move Markets.
The global mood has turned cautious. Wall Street pulled back last night, with the Dow dropping nearly half a percent and the Nasdaq slipping marginally. The primary trigger? Nervousness ahead of the critical Federal Reserve interest rate decision coming this Wednesday. Nobody wants to be a hero before the Fed speaks.
That caution has spilled over into Asia, where geopolitical tension is rising after Japan lodged a protest against Chinese military maneuvers. This uncertainty is weighing on sentiment. The result for us is painful. The Gift Nifty is trading at 25,956. That is a sentiment drop of 94 points compared to where we were yesterday afternoon. We are looking at a gap-down start that puts us firmly below the psychological 26,000 mark.
However, look closer at the institutional flows. There is a silver lining. FII selling moderated significantly yesterday. They sold 656 crores, which is a fraction of the panic selling we saw last week. On the other side, Domestic Institutions continued their buying spree, scooping up over 2,500 crores. The panic might be exhausting itself, but the bulls need to defend 25,900 aggressively today.
For stocks in focus, keeping your eyes glued to IndiGo. After the stock crashed 8 percent yesterday, the financial damage is now official. Late last night, the airline confirmed they have refunded 610 crore rupees to passengers. This 6-day disruption is no longer just an operational headline; it is a direct hit to their cash flow. Expect the stock to remain under severe pressure.
Quick check on the stress monitor. The best news for India is coming from the oil pits. Brent Crude has cracked another 2 percent, trading down at 62 dollars and 50 cents. This is a massive macro tailwind for our import bill. The Rupee remains weak at 90.11 against the dollar. Bitcoin is consolidating, trading flat at 90,400 dollars.
So, here is your trade setup. We are opening in the red. With the Gift Nifty below 26,000, the trend is weak, but do not chase shorts aggressively at the gap down. The DIIs are buying the dips. Watch the first 30 minutes. If 25,900 holds, we might see a dead cat bounce. If it breaks, the bears take full control.
That is your intelligence for the day. I am Prem, and this is News That Move Markets. If you found this actionable, hit subscribe. Good luck, and trade safe.
Fear is back on the street, and it brought the bears along for the ride. Despite the rate cut, the Nifty has surrendered the 26,000 mark, closing deep in the red.
The Scoreboard is messy. The Nifty 50 has cracked, shedding over 225 points to close at 25,960. The Bank Nifty took an even harder hit, with PSU banks plunging nearly three percent. But the real number you need to worry about is the India VIX. It spiked ten percent today, signaling that volatility is officially back. The breadth was brutal, with only 3 stocks advancing on the Nifty while 47 declined.
So, why the sell-off? It’s a classic case of sell on news. The market had already priced in the RBI rate cut, and now, profit booking at record highs has triggered a broad-based slide. The intense selling in mid-caps and small-caps suggests that retail panic is setting in, likely worsened by the lack of any support from Foreign Institutional Investors.
In terms of sector rotation, there was nowhere to hide. Every single sectoral index ended in the red. Nifty IT fell the least, acting as a defensive shelter, but even that was down a quarter of a percent. On the flip side, Nifty Realty crashed three and a half percent, and PSU Banks were right behind them. Money is not rotating; it is simply leaving the table.
The stock of the day is undoubtedly InterGlobe Aviation, or IndiGo. The stock crashed nearly eight percent to hit a seven-month low. The catalyst is an operational meltdown. We are talking about over one thousand cancelled flights due to pilot rostering issues and new regulatory norms. With the DGCA sending a show-cause notice and passengers demanding refunds, investors are pricing in a massive financial hit.
Quick global check. European markets are mixed, with the German DAX in the green but the UK FTSE slightly lower. However, US Futures are trading in the green, with the Nasdaq up nearly point two percent, which suggests that this panic might be isolated to India for now.
For tomorrow, the technical setup is precarious. The Nifty has broken the psychological 26,000 mark and failed to reclaim it. Resistance is now firm at 26,200. Support lies in the critical zone of 25,700 to 25,900. If we break that, we could see a much deeper correction.
My closing thought is simple. The easy money has been made. With the VIX rising and FIIs selling, capital preservation is now your primary job. Do not try to catch falling knives until the volatility settles.
That is your post-market wrap. Stay disciplined, and I will catch you tomorrow morning.
The FII are barely selling, but domestic funds are buying like there is no tomorrow, pouring over four thousand crores into a market that is already showing immense strength. If you were waiting for a signal that the bulls are still in charge, this is it.
Good morning, I'm Prem, and this is News That Move Markets. It is Monday, December 8th, 2025. Let's cut through the noise and get you ready for the opening bell.
We are starting the week with a strong handover from the West. Wall Street closed at fresh all-time highs on Friday. The Dow is knocking on the door of 48,000, and the Nasdaq added nearly half a percent. The narrative is clear, the soft landing is the base case, and yields are cooling off. That optimism is filtering through to us.
Looking at Asia this morning, it is a bit mixed. The Nikkei in Japan is seeing some profit-taking, down about one percent, but the Hang Seng is holding onto gains. However, the only number you need to care about right now is the Gift Nifty. It is trading at 26,335. That is up roughly 13 points from where we left off on Friday afternoon. It is not a massive gap-up, but it is steady, quiet accumulation, and that is exactly what sustainable rallies look like.
Here is the big macro picture you missed over the weekend. The geopolitical radar was silent. No escalation in the Middle East or Europe means we have a risk-on environment for the open. But the real story is the money flow. On Friday, FIIs sold a negligible 439 crores. Compare that to the DIIs, who bought a massive 4,189 crores. Domestic money is effectively putting a concrete floor under this market.
So, where is the action today? I am tracking two specific pockets. First, Information Technology. With the Nasdaq pushing higher and the Infosys ADR closing strong at 18 dollars and 23 cents, IT stocks are primed to lead the opening move. Second, look at Paints and Oil Marketing Companies. Brent Crude is sitting benign at 63 dollars and 75 cents. It is trading well below the 70 dollar danger mark. Cheap oil means margin expansion for these guys, so keep them on your radar.
A quick check on the stress monitor. The Rupee is the only slight worry, hovering right near the psychological 90 mark against the dollar. Keep an eye out for RBI intervention if we tick any higher. Meanwhile, Bitcoin is consolidating near record highs, confirming that risk appetite across the globe is still very much alive.
Here is the trade setup. The Nifty has major support at 26,300. With DIIs buying aggressively and oil prices stable, the texture of this market is a clear buy on dips. Don't chase the open, but look for entries in Banking and IT if we see any intraday cooling. I'm Prem, that's your morning update. Good luck, and trade safe.
RBI’s unexpected twenty five basis point rate cut to five point two five percent drove a strong risk‑on rally in stock market India, with Sensex, Nifty fifty and BankNifty all closing firmly higher.
Banking and financials led today’s market trends India, as Shriram Finance, State Bank of India, Bajaj Finserv and Adani Enterprises rallied on expectations of cheaper funding and better credit growth.
Defensives and select consumption names underperformed in the market updates, with Hindustan Unilever sliding on its ice‑cream business demerger record date, and weakness seen in InterGlobe Aviation, Trent and Sun Pharma.
Midcaps saw selective strength while smallcaps lagged, with M&M Finance, Patanjali Foods and SBI Cards outperforming, but Nifty Smallcap names like Kaynes Technology tumbling on governance and accounting concerns.
Key technical market catalysts included Nifty fifty breaking out above a consolidation band; resistance is now seen around twenty six thousand three hundred to twenty six thousand four hundred forty, with strong support near twenty six thousand sixty to twenty six thousand.
BankNifty held important support near fifty nine thousand and rebounded toward intraday highs around fifty nine thousand seven hundred seventy seven, keeping the short term bias positive as part of the broader daily market preview.
SEBI’s latest F&O reforms went live, tightening intraday surveillance on market wide position limits and imposing strict hard caps on index derivatives exposure, which is set to reshape derivatives trading behavior and expiry‑day volatility.
The Meesho IPO closed with over thirty three times subscription and a sharply positive grey market premium, signaling strong investor appetite for new‑age digital and e‑commerce themes in stock market India.
The rupee remained weak near record lows against the US dollar, underscoring ongoing foreign outflows and becoming an important macro risk to watch alongside domestic market trends India.
Actionable takeaway from today’s daily market preview: traders may look to buy on dips in quality financials and autos, as long as Nifty holds above the key twenty six thousand support zone and the broader uptrend structure remains intact.
US Markets Close Mixed Ahead of Fed Decision – Dow down 0.1% to 47,850, S&P 500 up 0.11% to 6,857, Nasdaq up 0.22% to 23,505; profit-taking evident despite expectations of December 10 rate cut; Intel tumbles 8% on divestiture reversal
Indian ADRs Show Strength Overnight – Infosys ADR surges 3.6%, HDFC Bank rises 0.25%, ICICI Bank flat, Reliance declines 0.69%; positive momentum in IT sector sets constructive tone for domestic market
Asian Markets Present Mixed Signals – Nikkei down 1.46%, Hang Seng down 0.32%, Shanghai marginally lower; weakness and profit-taking evident across region
Gift Nifty Consolidates Ahead of RBI Decision – Trading at 26,183, down 0.02% from previous close; investors positioning cautiously before major policy announcement
Global Commodities Snapshot – Brent crude at $63.24/barrel, up 0.91% on Ukrainian-Russian geopolitical tensions; gold remains stable; energy stocks supported by supply concerns
RBI Monetary Policy: The Day's Main Market Catalyst – Decision announced at 10 AM today; market divided on whether to cut repo rate by 25 basis points or maintain at 5.5%; inflation at benign 2.6% supports cut case, but robust 8.2% GDP growth supports pause argument
Technical Levels for Daily Market Preview – Nifty 50 resistance: 26,100-26,200; support: 25,900-25,950; critical break below 25,900 opens way to 25,750; Bank Nifty resistance: 59,800; support: 59,000
Key Market Trends India: RBI Forward Guidance Matters – Outcome hinges not just on rate decision but on tone and forward guidance; dovish signals could push Nifty toward 26,500, while hawkish stance risks dip toward 25,900
Trading Strategy for Today's Market Updates – Maintain flexible positioning until after 10 AM announcement; avoid aggressive directional bets pre-policy; trade technicals post-announcement with heightened volatility expected; monitor FII flows as currency weakness persists
Medium-Term Outlook – Domestic fundamentals remain strong supporting bull run potential; dovish pivot could reignite rally beyond 26,500; currency headwinds remain key constraint on foreign flows despite policy support
Nifty fifty, Sensex and Bank Nifty all closed mildly higher, snapping a four-day losing streak and signalling a cautiously positive but still fragile mood in stock market india.
Persistent rupee weakness, with the currency hovering near record lows against the dollar, remained a major overhang, acting as both a tailwind for exporters and a headwind via import inflation and debt-servicing risks in the broader market trends india.
IT led the upside, with names like Tech Mahindra, TCS, Infosys, HDFC Life and Bharat Electronics gaining, while heavyweights such as Reliance, Hindalco and Maruti Suzuki softened, showing a clear sectoral rotation in today’s market updates.
IndiGo’s parent InterGlobe Aviation came under pressure after widespread operational disruptions and flight cancellations across cities, with weather, tech issues and new rostering rules blamed for the hit.
In commodities, crude oil firmed up on expectations of lower US inventories and ongoing tensions in the Red Sea and Ukraine, while MCX gold and silver futures eased on profit-taking after recent strength.
Geopolitical developments, including President Putin’s visit to India and continued conflict-related risks around Russian energy infrastructure, added to the list of global market catalysts influencing sentiment and crude prices.
Technically, Nifty fifty needs a strong close above the twenty-six thousand sixty zone to extend the up-move, while support near twenty-five thousand nine hundred remains the key line in the sand for this daily market preview.
The RBI policy decision tomorrow is the primary event to watch, with rates expected to stay on hold but any commentary on the rupee and growth outlook likely to drive short-term market catalysts for stock market india.
The suggested stance is to stay constructive on export-oriented and IT stocks in the near term, but wait for price confirmation around key Nifty support before adding aggressive long positions, keeping a close eye on evolving market trends india.
Today’s daily market preview highlights a strong Wall Street rally, with the Dow Jones up 0.86%, S&P 500 up 0.6%, and Nasdaq up 0.17%, driven by hopes for a Fed rate cut and softer jobs data.
Indian ADRs showed mixed performance: Infosys ADR gained 1.44%, ICICI Bank ADR rose 0.36%, HDFC Bank ADR edged up 0.08%, while Reliance Industries GDR fell 3%, reflecting global energy sector concerns and signaling key market trends India should watch.
Asian markets opened mixed: Nikkei up 1.4%, Hang Seng flat, Shanghai Composite down 0.16%, with Gift Nifty at 26,082, suggesting a cautious opening for stock market India as investors await the RBI policy decision.
Market catalysts today include high Fed rate cut expectations (87-90% chance for a cut on December 10th), ongoing US-India trade tensions, and a weaker rupee at 90 per dollar, all influencing market updates and sentiment.
Domestically, FII outflows have accelerated, with over ₹4,200 crore pulled out in early December, while domestic institutions bought ₹4,700 crore worth of shares; RBI policy uncertainty remains the top market catalyst for tomorrow.
Technical levels: Nifty support at 25,850 and 25,700, resistance at 26,100 and 26,250; Bank Nifty support near 58,900, with traders advised to play the range amid market trends India and event risk ahead of RBI decision.
Commodity moves: Crude oil at $59/barrel, gold at $4,218/oz, silver at $58.49/oz, supporting equities and reflecting global safe-haven demand.
Today’s tactical advice: Consolidation is expected, so traders should be cautious with long positions, respect support/resistance levels, and await RBI clarity for clearer market catalysts.
Show Notes: "What Moved the Market" - December 3, 2025
Market Close Summary
Nifty 50: 25,986 (-46 points, -0.18%)
Sensex: 85,138 (-31 points, flat)
Bank Nifty: 59,273 (-407 points, -0.68%)
USD/INR: 89.88 (rupee hit all-time low of 90.14 intraday)
Overall stock market india sentiment weak ahead of RBI policy decision
Winners: IT sector (+0.45%) - Wipro (+1.93%), TCS (+1.44%), Infosys (+1.24%)
Losers: FMCG (-0.61%), PSU Banks (-0.35%), Auto (-0.22%)
Profit-booking across most sectors; defensive names under pressure
Gainers: Wipro, TCS, Infosys, ICICI Bank, Hindalco
Losers: Max Healthcare (-2.91%), Tata Consumer Products (-2.25%), Adani Enterprises (-2.14%), Bharat Electronics (-2.03%), Shriram Finance (-1.83%)
Nifty 50: Support at 26,000 and 25,855; Resistance at 26,135 and 26,314
Bank Nifty: Support at 58,750 and 58,175; Resistance at 59,528 and 60,114 (all-time high)
Intraday low: 25,891 before recovery
RBI MPC Meeting: 3-day meeting (Dec 3-5); decision Friday on repo rate (expected hold at 5.50% vs potential 25 bps cut)
CPI Data: Record-low inflation at 0.25% (October)
GDP Growth: Strong 8.2% (Q2)
SEBI F&O Reforms: Hard position limits effective Dec 6; pre-open session starts Dec 8
Crude Oil: Brent $62.36/barrel, WTI $58.97/barrel (down on Russia-Ukraine peace talks)
MCX Gold: ₹1,30,769/10g (+0.78%)
MCX Silver: ₹1,84,727/kg (+1.72%) - Fresh all-time high
Russia-Ukraine peace negotiations stalled; no breakthrough
Uncertainty supporting safe-haven demand for gold/silver
Weak rupee elevating import costs and commodity prices in INR terms
Consolidation expected between 25,850-26,200 for Nifty 50
RBI decision Friday remains major volatility trigger
Actionable Takeaway: IT stocks attractive on dips; avoid large leveraged F&O bets; watch 26,000 support zone for buy signals
Conservative investors should accumulate quality stocks on weakness
Wall Street closed in green on Tuesday, with the Dow Jones up 0.39%, S&P 500 up 0.25%, and Nasdaq Composite up 0.59%, driven by stabilizing yields and Bitcoin rebounding above $91,000 after a sharp dip. Top movers included Boeing, MongoDB, and Credo, while market sentiment remains cautious ahead of the Fed's next move and ongoing tariff concerns.
Indian ADRs showed mixed performance overnight: Infosys ADR dipped 0.23%, ICICI Bank edged up 0.05%, HDFC Bank gained 1.13%, and Reliance Industries declined 0.66%. HDFC Bank’s strength offers positive cues for Indian investors, but overall positioning remains cautious ahead of the domestic session.
Asian markets opened with the Nikkei up 1%, Hang Seng down 1%, and Shanghai Composite slightly down. Gift Nifty traded flat at 26,191, indicating a steady opening for the Indian market, with investors awaiting clearer directional signals from global cues.
Major market catalysts today include the Bank of Japan’s rate hike hint, which has tightened global financial conditions, and ongoing Trump tariff pressures affecting India’s manufacturing sector and rupee. Crude oil is steady around $63 per barrel, while gold and silver have eased after recent volatility.
Domestic market trends in India are shaped by the RBI’s monetary policy meeting starting today, with expectations of a status quo or possible rate cut amid record-low CPI inflation and robust GDP growth. FII outflows continue, but DIIs remain net buyers, supporting sentiment. The rupee hit a fresh low near 89.95 per dollar.
Technical levels for Nifty50 point to support at 26,000 and resistance at 26,200–26,325, while Bank Nifty support is at 58,300–58,600 and resistance at 59,600–59,800. The overall technical structure remains bullish, but near-term consolidation is expected ahead of the RBI decision.
Commodity market updates show crude oil at $63 per barrel, gold around $4,223 per ounce, and silver at $57.4 per ounce, with recent pullbacks after volatility spikes. These levels could influence equity valuations and the rupee.
Today’s tactical theme for traders is to stay selective and focus on quality large-cap names with strong fundamentals, given the backdrop of FII selling, rupee weakness, and the upcoming RBI policy. Dips toward support could offer tactical opportunities, but conviction remains limited until clearer global cues emerge.
For today’s daily market preview, watch for any new market catalysts, especially from the RBI meeting, and stay updated on evolving market trends in India. The stock market India outlook remains cautiously optimistic, with a focus on technical setups and sectoral rotation.
Overall market trends india were negative, with Nifty Fifty, Sensex, and Bank Nifty all closing lower for a second straight session amid profit-booking after record highs.
The rupee weakened to around eighty-nine point nine two against the US dollar, and this currency pressure, along with foreign outflows, acted as key market catalysts for the risk-off mood.
Heavyweight stocks like HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, Axis Bank, Reliance Industries, and L and T fell more than one percent, and their synchronized decline was the main driver of the recent weakness in Nifty.
Selling by Foreign Institutional Investors in financials and energy, plus a lack of fresh domestic triggers at stretched valuations, dominated today’s market updates.
On the positive side, Asian Paints and Infosys were among the top gainers, helped by defensive buying in IT and lower input costs for paint makers.
Mother Nutri Foods had a volatile stock market india listing and finally settled close to its issue price, reflecting cautious sentiment in the primary market.
Key technical levels highlighted: Nifty Fifty repeatedly tested support near twenty-six thousand, with a downside watch toward twenty-five thousand eight hundred if that level breaks.
Bank Nifty support around fifty-nine thousand three hundred remained crucial, with resistance near sixty thousand, shaping the near-term daily market preview for traders.
Sector performance was mixed: Banking and Financial Services, plus Media and Metals, were weak, while IT showed relative strength and Pharma was flat to slightly positive.
A new SEBI Informal Guidance Scheme two thousand twenty-five came into effect, aiming to give quicker, clearer regulatory guidance to market participants and reduce compliance uncertainty.
No major RBI policy action was announced intraday, but the central bank is seen as closely tracking rupee depreciation and its impact on stock market india flows.
In commodities, MCX gold stayed near historic highs around one lakh thirty thousand three hundred rupees per ten grams, and silver hovered near one lakh eighty-two thousand rupees per kilogram, both important market catalysts for sentiment.
Crude oil edged up, adding to concerns on input costs and contributing to the cautious tone in broader market trends india.
Global and geopolitical backdrop remained uncertain, with worries around trade and energy supply chains reinforcing a risk-off bias in domestic equities.
The forward view in this daily market preview stays cautious: Nifty looks weak below twenty-six thousand two hundred, with twenty-six thousand as immediate support and a sell-on-rise bias unless FII selling eases.
For Bank Nifty, price action around fifty-nine thousand three hundred will guide traders, with volatility expected to persist in the next session.
Actionable takeaway: keep a close watch on private banking leaders like HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank near today’s lows, as their moves are likely to dictate short-term direction for stock market india.
Wall Street ended lower on December 1st, with the Dow down zero point nine percent, S&P five hundred down zero point fifty three percent, and Nasdaq down zero point thirty eight percent, reflecting caution ahead of the Fed's rate decision and broader macroeconomic uncertainty.
Technology and crypto stocks were among the biggest losers, with Bitcoin dropping six point four percent, impacting Coinbase, Robinhood, and MicroStrategy.
Indian ADRs showed mixed performance overnight: HDFC Bank down three point seven five percent, ICICI Bank down two point zero eight percent, Infosys down zero point one seven percent, and Reliance Industries down zero point thirty three percent, signaling caution among global investors regarding India’s financial sector and rupee weakness.
Asian markets opened selectively higher: Nikkei up zero point four percent, Hang Seng up zero point thirty five percent, and Shanghai Composite up zero point sixty five percent, with optimism over potential Fed rate cuts supporting sentiment.
Gift Nifty was trading around the twenty six thousand three hundred zone, indicating a muted to cautiously positive opening for Indian equities, with market trends India closely tied to global cues and RBI policy expectations.
India’s manufacturing PMI slipped to a nine-month low of fifty six point six in November, while the rupee hit a fresh record low, adding pressure on equities and commodities.
The RBI is expected to keep rates unchanged at five point five percent on December fifth, but market catalysts will center on any forward guidance and the potential for synchronized global rate cuts.
Foreign investors continued net selling Indian equities, driven by elevated valuations, a strengthening dollar, and stricter FPI taxation rules, affecting the daily market preview.
Nifty fifty faces immediate resistance at twenty six thousand three hundred to twenty six thousand four hundred twenty, with support at twenty six thousand one hundred to twenty six thousand, and a critical structural base at twenty five thousand eight hundred fifty.
Bank Nifty surged past sixty thousand, with resistance at sixty thousand one hundred and support at fifty nine thousand four hundred to fifty nine thousand, making it a key driver of market trends India.
Crude oil traded near fifty nine dollars per barrel, gold at four thousand two hundred sixty dollars per ounce, and silver at fifty eight dollars per ounce, with commodity moves impacting market updates and inflation expectations.
The daily market preview suggests a range-bound, cautious start, with traders advised to monitor resistance levels and watch for any hawkish Fed commentary as a potential market catalyst.
Market updates highlight the importance of SEBI’s new index options position limits, effective December sixth, for derivatives traders.
Overall, the stock market India remains influenced by strong GDP growth, but profit booking and sector rotation are evident, especially in banking and IT, with broader market trends India pointing to consolidation near record highs.