A big week looms here in New Zealand, with the main event set to be the Official Cash Rate (OCR) decision and Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) from the Reserve Bank on Wednesday afternoon. Markets see a cut of 0.25% as a certainty, while pricing implies about a 50/50 chance of an additional cut beyond that, making the MPS forecasts important.

Last month the NZX 50 index hit a fresh record high, finally surpassing the previous peak from January 2021. It was a long time coming. Other markets recovered from their post-COVID hangover much more quickly, but we’ve taken almost five years. At first glance, this would all suggest that our market has regained all its lost ground, surpassed the previous market peak and pushed on to bigger and better things. However, that’s not quite so.

There's a lot to watch this week, including a string of delayed US economic releases. However, these might all be overshadowed by the world's most important stock. Tech heavyweight and AI poster child NVIDIA is scheduled to release its latest quarterly earnings report on Wednesday in the US.

It was a “risk-off” week for global markets, with most indices slipping as investors became more nervous about extended valuations across parts of the US market. The local NZX 50 bucked the global trend with a small rise, while the NZ dollar continued to drift lower. It fell to US$0.56 against the greenback, the lowest since just after Liberation Day in April. The currency is also the weakest since 2015 against the British pound, the lowest since 2013 against the Australian dollar and at levels we haven’t seen since 2009 against the euro!

Labour's targeted capital gains tax (CGT) announcement last week was interesting. We're yet to see the detail, but has it got some merit? Taxes, property and politics are three topics that lead to robust debate amongst many New Zealanders, so let's talk roll those into one and talk about this latest proposal!

A busy week looms in New Zealand, with the highlight set to be the September quarter labour force report, due Wednesday. Unemployment is expected to rise to 5.3%, the highest since 2016. The latest Financial Stability Report from the RBNZ will be of interest too. Last but not least, it’s another big week of earnings releases with more than 130 S&P 500 companies scheduled to report results.

Lower interest rates have been a cause for celebration for many people in recent months. However, conservative savers with money on term deposit won’t be quite so enthusiastic. They were sitting pretty 18 months ago, with the six-month term deposit rate offering a yield of six per cent, the highest since 2008. Since then, rates have slumped more than 40 per cent to under 3.5 per cent. That’s a hefty pay cut, if your term deposit nest egg is a key source of income.

US credit markets have delivered strong returns this year. Companies have been issuing record amounts of debt, borrowing costs have remained manageable and bond investors have pocketed solid gains. However, in recent weeks cracks have appeared beneath the surface, and the pace at which the problems have emerged is worth paying attention to.

Investors will be watching US economic releases ahead of next week’s Federal Reserve meeting, with the September consumer price index (CPI) report a likely highlight. Inflation will be front and centre here in New Zealand too. The latest CPI report is due on Monday, with the headline measure likely to hit 3.0% (the highest in more than 12 months).

In recent weeks and months, the NZ dollar has weakened against most trading partners. It's down six per cent against the US dollar since the beginning of July, while it’s at a three year low against the Australian dollar. We’re under 0.50 against the euro, something we haven’t seen since late 2009, more than 15 years ago. It’s doing exactly what you’d expect it to against a challenging economic backdrop, and whether this is good or bad depends on your perspective.

The government shutdown is now into its 12th day and there aren't any signs of a compromise yet. At least we can count on the private sector to remain open, and a slew of corporate earnings releases to fill the gap this week. More than 30 S&P 500 companies are set to announce results, including some of the US banking heavyweights. Here in New Zealand, we should get a fresh housing market report from the Real Estate Institute, while RBNZ Chief Economist Paul Conway is giving a speech on Wednesday in Sydney.

It’s been a fantastic run for the US sharemarket. The S&P 500 index is up 18 per cent in the past 12 months, and 83 per cent over three years. Even Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has commented on this, noting that “equity prices are fairly highly valued” during a recent speech. Are US stocks in a bubble, and how worried should investors be about where valuations have got to?

A big week looms here in New Zealand, with the latest Official Cash Rate decision from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) the clear highlight on Wednesday. Another cut is assured, but will it be another 0.25% or will the RBNZ opt for a larger 0.50% move?

The first three quarters of the calendar year are behind us, and investors have again been well rewarded for ignoring the noise and staying the course. If the global economy remains resilient and corporate earnings continue to grow solidly, share prices are likely to remain buoyant. We have seasonality on our side too, with this home stretch typically a positive period for global markets.

The New Zealand economy has contracted (on a per capita basis) for nine of the last 12 quarters, making for a deep and lengthy recession. This has inevitably weighed on the performance of local investments. Other countries have had a much better time of it, and there have been some excellent opportunities for strong investment returns of late. They just haven't been here in Aotearoa. This really highlights the need to ensure your investments are globally diversified.

What a week! The S&P 500 index rose 1.2% to fresh highs last week, buoyed by solid economic indicators and the first rate cut from the Federal Reserve since last year. The Russell 2000 (a US small-cap index) was up for a seventh straight week, while credit spreads tightened to levels last seen in 1998. Here in New Zealand, we saw a very weak GDP report, that's got people talking about a 50-basis point OCR cut in October.

Gold continues to be a hot topic of conversation across financial markets, with the precious metal rising almost 40 per cent so far in 2025 and hitting fresh record highs. Here's what you need to know if you're thinking about adding the shiny stuff to your portfolio.

The Federal Reserve will be the clear highlight this week, with markets expecting a resumption of the easing cycle that has been on hold all year. Here in New Zealand, the key release will be the GDP report for the June quarter.

There's hope emerging that our economy is turning a corner. Is that possible with so much bad news still around? As always, whether your glass is half-full or half-empty depends on where you're looking, and what you're paying most attention to. We should expect more negative headlines in the months ahead, starting with the upcoming GDP report. However, keep in mind that some indicators tell us more about what’s in the rear view mirror than what’s ahead.

France will be in the spotlight early in the week, with a confidence vote being held on Monday in the National Assembly. The key event of the economic calendar will be the US CPI report for August, due Thursday, ahead of the Federal Reserve decision next week. The central banking highlight will be the ECB interest rate decision, where markets expect a hold.