This week Progressive's Jeremy McKeown and Gareth Evans start by talking about the market changing its mind twice, and quite materially. The positive reaction to the US government's reopening was short-lived, as was the delight at NVIDIA's blowout earnings on Wednesday. In both cases, prices were boosted by good news, only to drift - in NVIDIA's case by 8% top-to-bottom in the course of just a day. Markets always move, but these are huge deltas on some very large amounts of capital. Lots of things are overlapping so discerning worries about AI from worries about the economic outlook is almost impossible.
Our traditional reminder to keep one eye on Japan, where 10-year bond yields are soaring and the currency dropping...beware the carry trade unwinding with a bump.
In the UK, we're all waiting to see which of the many-mooted taxes will be inflicted on us - the chances of a real surprise look pretty small. Progressive client Gear4Music delivered a strong H1 result, perhaps demonstrating the resilience and operational gearing that we've been discussing may be a feature of a large number of UK micro-caps. They have weathered Brexit, Covid, supply chain pressure and now consumer pain - with costs kept lean and strong operational efficiency, any recovery will flow straight to the bottom line - which is exactly what G4M has demonstrated.
Next week we have US retail sales and durable goods data, and FOMC members with a number of speeches in the diary. Confusion and contradiction remain, as the US economy sees Wall Street (mainly the Magnificent 7) whose AI and capex-fuelled world is growing rapidly, contrast sharply with Main Street where the average American is feeling real pain. Should interest rates be set to rein in tech-bro exuberance and gently deflate a potential bubble, or to give some cost-of-living relief to the down-trodden masses?
Progressive's George O'Connor and Ian Robertson catch up on the news and events affecting UK-listed tech companies.
Rightmove’s share price reaction to management’s decision to accelerate its investment in AI suggests that the market is not comfortable with AI and is in bear case hunt mode. Looking at Rightmove, Trainline, Autotrader et al. it is clear that AI is going to make a difference, but it is not changing that many business models.
We consider Kainos’ results and George talks us through how the business has evolved before contemplating whether there will be or, perhaps can be, a budget flush coming as those with IT budgets use it or lose it in the final months of the year.
We look forward to Sage’s forthcoming results by looking at Xero’s just gone and consider how business models and routes to market have evolved, then look to the potential float of Visma next year.
Brought to you by Progressive.
Progressive's Jeremy McKeown speaks with renowned global thematic investor Mark Farrington, exploring decades of Asian market shifts—from Japan’s boom and bust to China’s emerging challenges.
Two of Jeremy's guests this year from the world of global thematic investing, David Dredge and Marvin Barth, both cited Mark Farrington as someone they refer to for insight, particularly on developments in Asia.
Mark Farrington writes about global thematic investing in his Watchtower series on Substack: The Global Watchtower, The Dollar Watchtower, and the BoJ Watchtower. Mark is as prolific as he is insightful.
Jeremy caught up with Mark for a fascinating conversation about his experience and learnings from a long career following developments in Asia —from the rise of Japan in the 70s and 80s to its lost decade and the rise of China.
In particular, he was keen to ask Mark whether Japan can normalise its monetary policy without collapsing the global financial system. Will China follow Japan into a lost decade of debt deflation? And how poorly understood Asian markets might impact our economies and financial markets in a new world order marked by the reassertion of economic nationalism.
Mark delivered a masterclass on the hows and whys of global thematic investing. It is an episode that should have a long shelf life.
With that, please enjoy Jeremy's conversation with global thematic investor Mark Farrington.
Progressive's Jeremy McKeown and Gareth Evans discuss the week's events, with a greater focus on the UK, following the Reeves bombshell overnight that she has pivoted away from her previous indication that she would raise income tax for the first time in 50 years at the upcoming Budget on November 26th.
This suggestion across most front pages today has thrown the gilts and the value of the pound into some turmoil.
Meanwhile, in the US, the government is reopening, but to the realisation that continuing to borrow without spending has exacerbated tight dollar liquidity, as evidenced by the sharp fall in Bitcoin.
We are entering a more volatile market phase amid the absence of official US government data on October's employment and inflation. Essentially, investors must fly blind through a period of stormy weather. What could go wrong?
In the UK equity market, despite the politics, things are looking incrementally better, with the IPO market showing signs of fully opening up.
Gareth highlights FDM and Jeremy 4imprint as examples of how to cope with difficult times and manage expectations. Both companies had inline or marginal upgrades, and their share prices responded strongly.
Looking ahead, with the US remaining quiet, it's about inflation data from the UK and Japan, both high and sticky, and increasingly problematic.
Investors in the UK will be on the latest developments from the rumour mill at No. 11. In the US, investors will be looking for unofficial signs that the authorities might be prepared to loosen conditions to ease the impact of the shutdown.
Brought to you by Progressive Equity.
As the world shifts away from net-zero absolutism, the UK faces a defining moment in its energy policy. In this episode, Progressive's Jeremy McKeown explores whether the government will save the North Sea industry—or sacrifice it on the altar of net-zero—with insights from Kathryn Porter and Martin Copeland.
As Keir Starmer and Ed Miliband return from COP30 in Brazil, Jeremy wanted to take a look at the UK’s energy policy amid a global backdrop suggesting the world is turning away from net-zero absolutism towards more human-centric policy options.
The Overton window on energy policy is being pushed aside by the likes of Tony Blair, Bill Gates, and, significantly, by the lobbying interests of big technology, and resource nationalism is being reasserted.
In the run-up to the next General Election, the UK’s energy policy will form a key battleground, and in particular, our sky-high energy prices and the future of our North Sea hydrocarbons industry will be critical factors in the debate.
Jeremy was joined by Kathryn Porter, Watt Logic energy consultant and Telegraph columnist, and Martin Copeland Chief Financial Officer of North Sea oil and gas operator, Serica Energy for a discussion about the UK’s energy policy and the future of the North Sea, for a hugely insightful conversation.
While they covered a lot of ground, the key question is whether the UK is prepared to sacrifice its North Sea oil and gas industry to the god of net-zero.
While it has already been severely damaged, it is not too late for government policy to save the jobs and energy reserves at stake, but action is needed in the upcoming Budget. This significant event could mark a turning point for an industry on the brink of destruction from the irrational pursuit of territorial net-zero at all costs.
This week, Progressive's Jeremy McKeown and Gareth Evans discuss a relatively calm week in the markets - China and the USA have reached a deal of sorts, the USD is slightly stronger but not so strong as to cause trouble elsewhere.
The Fed is confused (and will be careful, likely meaning rates staying higher) because America remains in a Federal shutdown, and data is scarce. Still, US equity markets remain robust, and Elon Musk is rejoicing at his trillion-dollar deal.
The UK, however, is still quaking at the impending budget, with so many possible taxes discussed that they can't all be needed...there may even be relief once the bad news is out. Trainline's results looked solid, but Tim Martin at Wetherspoon used a trading update as a platform to berate the government on everything from corporate regulation to nuclear power.
Next week - and perhaps many weeks to come - will see the US Supreme Court deliberate the legality of Trump's tariffs...so this week's lack of fireworks may be a postponement rather than a cancellation. What will happen when Liberation Day meets its own Judgement Day...?
Progressive's Jeremy McKeown and Gareth Evans discus the week's main market news, starting with the historic meeting between Trump and Xi, and praised Treasury Secretary Bessent for his role in positioning the market.
The Fed FOMC delivered a hawkish rate cut, which sent markets higher; however, things might get more uncertain as the US government shutdown starts to affect the collection of macroeconomic data for future releases.
They also discuss the improved prospects for Javier Milei to deliver his small-state solution in Argentina, following a surprisingly positive congressional midterm election result.
Meanwhile, the Mag Seven US mega tech companies continue their remarkable rise, with Nvidia still the clear winner. And the primary constraint on these tech titans' ambitions is reliable baseload energy, so it was unsurprising that Bill Gates and the UK government are signalling a retreat from specific net-zero policies and targets.
Finally, the backdrop and outlook for the UK's stock market is looking and feeling more positive than perhaps was feared only a few weeks ago, ahead of next month's Budget. A string of IPOs and anecdotal evidence, including the update from broker Cavendish, suggests we could have a better run into year-end after the Budget is out of the way.
This week, Progressive's Gareth Evans and Jeremy McKeown discuss the fragile peace in hot wars and trade wars.
There is a sense of finality about Trump's latest attempts to get Putin and Zelensky to agree on ceasefire terms. Trump is losing patience with both parties. The choice of Budapest as the location for Trump and Putin's meeting was no coincidence.
Meanwhile, Trump's on-and-off talks with Xi seem to be on again. The prospect of an emergent Grand Bargain remains on the table, giving equity markets hope.
Asset markets saw a significant rotation on Tuesday, with a dramatic collapse in precious metals prices and a spike in bond prices, leading to a decline in key sovereign yields. Helpful for both Rachel Reeves and Scott Bessent.
However, it remains unclear if this is just a short-term price correction in gold or a longer-term structural shift. Should investors, still fearful of the pending fiat collapse, buy the dip in precious metals?
Similarly, one needs to ask why bond yields are falling. Jeremy doesn't think there is any reassessment of governments' fiscal responsibility, but rather that it reflects worries about slowing economies or worsening credit quality in private markets.
Regarding the ongoing debate on the AI bubble, they discuss whether former UK deputy PM Nick Clegg can add any value to the issue. What do you think?
Looking ahead, Jeremy covers imminent US and Japanese inflation data and also notes the prospect for updates from the Mag Seven NASDAQ giants over the coming few weeks.
This week, Progressive's Jeremy McKeown and Gareth Evans consider Trump's quick switch from declaring peace in the Middle East to opening a (new) trade war with China, which has almost as quickly subsided, with the Trump/Xi meeting now "back on".
Jeremy highlights the ongoing strength of gold - FOMO bubble or long-term trend driven by debasement of currencies ? And the great rewards of being a gold miner - with unparalleled revenue per ounce, and costs of drilling and transport (often oil-based) in decline.
Bitcoin hasn't participated in the recent gold rally - although over a longer timeframe than the last few months, it has hugely outperformed. Perhaps both can be safe havens in a world of unaffordable government debt and spiralling-down currencies ?
Meanwhile equity markets have been relatively stable, although slightly spooked by the current pressure on US lenders, driven by greater-than-apparent losses flowing from a number of insolvencies that shouldn't have rippled the way they have.
Gareth talks about Gear4Music, Sanderson Design Group and Oxford Metrics, all of which this week have highlighted decent trading (or better) along with the benefit of much cost-control, in each case well received by investors.
Next week we have Chinese growth data and UK inflation which could exceed 4% for the first time in over a year. The end of the week will bring US inflation (they're still publishing despite the government shutdown) - anything much above 3.0% will both rattle markets and possibly cost someone at the Bureau of Labor and Statistics their job. Finally, don't forget Japan...Friday also brings their latest inflation print; as always we better hope there's nothing too surprising.
Progressive's Gareth Evans and Jeremy McKeown discuss the highlights of the last week in financial markets.
Gold (and other precious metals) move to all-time highs, representing a foot on the brake. What are they worried about? Well, there are emerging risks around credit conditions in private markets and increasing concerns that the AI capex cycle is turning into a fully fledged bubble, one that Jeff Bezos, no less, called a good bubble. Jeremy mentioned the under-reported British Bicycle Bubble of the 1890s. See link for details: https://www.historyhit.com/the-great-british-bicycle-bubble-of-1896/
Trump, the peacemaker, is making progress in the Middle East, but not in time to win this year's Nobel Peace Prize. However, the consequences for any deal could involve much lower oil prices and maybe a disruption to the ascent of precious metals prices.
Gareth discusses the UK car loan mis-selling update from the FCA, its impact on Vertu Motors and Secure Trust, and this week's results from Beeks Financial Cloud.
Looking forward, the macro news includes trade and inflation data from China, as well as employment and GDP data from the UK.
With the US government shut down, there are question marks over what to expect from the US market or whether the inflation data on October 15th will even be released.
Brought to you by Progressive Equity.
Rory MacDonald, CEO of Made Tech Group, and Neil Elton, CFO, present the group's results for the year ended May 31, 2025, followed by a Q&A session.
Rory MacDonald, CEO
00:16 Introduction
01:02 FY25 Highlights
Neil Elton, CFO
03:54 FY25 Financial Highlights
08:24 Bookings and Revenue
10:04 Adjusted EBITDA
11:55 Balance Sheet
Rory MacDonald, CEO
13:55 Industries
17:22 Clients
19:03 Case Study: NHS England
20:16 Case Study: Home Office
21:23 Services
24:26 Software Products
26:01 Social Value
27:45 People
29:41 Outlook
31:51 Q&A
Made Tech is a provider of digital, data and technology services, which enable central government, healthcare, local government organisations and other regulated industries to digitally transform.
The Group operates from three locations across the UK - London, Manchester, and Bristol.
More information is available at https://investors.madetech.com/.
SDI Group CEO, Stephen Brown, CFO, Ami Sharma and Head of Corporate Development, James Dimitriou present the group's results for the year ended 30 April 2025, followed by a Q&A session.
Stephen Brown, CEO
01:20 Introduction
03:47 Strategic Progress
04:40 FY25 Key Growth Initiatives
05:34 Industrial and Scientific Products Highlights
06:53 Industrial and Scientific Sensors Highlights
07:25 Laboratory Equipment Highlights
08:34 Acquisitions - Inspecvision
09:38 Acquisitions - Collins Walker
10:08 Acquisitions - Severn Thermal Solutions
Ami Sharma, CFO
10:54 FY25 Financial Highlights
11:53 Income Statement
13:26 Divisional Performance - Industrial And Scientific Products
14:12 Divisional Performance - Industrial And Scientific Sensors
14:56 Divisional Performance - Laboratory Equipment
15:29 Cash Flow
16:38 Net Debt Bridge
17:04 Net Debt
Stephen Brown, CEO
17:41 Outlook
19:02 Q&A
SDI Group plc is a group of small to medium size companies with specialist industrial and scientific products in growth sector niches which help solve customers' key challenges.
It specialises in the acquisition and development of companies that design and manufacture specialist products for use in lab equipment, industrial & scientific sensors and industrial & scientific products.
Its portfolio of businesses supplies the life sciences, healthcare, plastics and packaging, manufacturing, precision optics and measurement instrumentation markets.
SDI aims to continue its growth through driving the organic growth of its portfolio companies and by the acquisition of complementary technology businesses with established reputations in global markets.
For more information, please see: www.SDIGroup.com
Progressive Analysts George O'Connor and Ian Robertson catch up on events in and around the UK small and mid-cap listed tech.
Big Beautiful Trade Prosperity deal – George tries to put in it some kind of context vs the scale of what is happening elsewhere. Has the UK sold its soul or did that really happen years ago? Look to the positive and question Germany’s and France’s position.
Then Oracle – the big jump. The whole world now knows what it’s like to be a UK small-cap fund manager. The big ego tech boss with a track record of missing results declares that he has HUGE committed revenues ahead of him with limited visibility on both the final customer and the funding, sounds all too familiar What does Larry Ellison understand by commitment anyway – probably depends on which of his six wives you ask.
Feels a bit like Jan 10th 2000 AOL – Time Warner. But it’s different this time – why? Because the internet needed funding and so the bankers and brokers had been seeing the big dollar signs for several years by that point. This time Wall Street has been restrained, and analysts have frequently asked tricky questions, but all that could change now.
Looking at UK company news, George highlights SThree’s concerning results, Tinybuild’s recovery, whilst Ian ponders Judges Scientific in the light of Spectris and asks why UK fund managers and analysts seem to be stuck in an analog world.
The Pebble Group CEO, Chris Lee and CFO, Claire Thomson, present the group's results for the six months ended 30 June 2025, followed by Q&A.
Chris Lee, CEO
00:16 Introduction
03:01 Investment case
04:24 HY25 Highlights
Claire Thomson, CFO
06:34 HY25 Financial Highlights
07:34 Revenue
08:13 Income Statement
09:12 Balance Sheet
09:43 Cash flow
10:19 Cash Utilisation Principles
Chris Lee, CEO
11:30 Facilisgroup Introduction
12:48 Facilisgroup Key Financial and Operational Metrics
14:35 Facilisgroup Strategy
Claire Thomson, CFO
17:14 Brand Addition Introduction
18:08 Brand Addition Key Financial and Operational Metrics
19:03 Brand Addition Revenue Bridge
20:56 Brand Addition Strategy
Chris Lee, CEO
21:49 ESG
23:01 Group Outlook
23:54 Q&A
The Pebble Group is a provider of technology, products, and related services to the global promotional products industry, comprising two differentiated businesses, Facilisgroup and Brand Addition, focused on specific areas of the promotional products market.
Facilisgroup: Providing an end-to-end order processing system, combined with a proprietary operating method, market network and community support to growth orientated promotional products distributors in North America.
Brand Addition: An end-to-end creative branded merchandise agency that helps global brands build culture, awareness and meaningful connections with their customers, employees and communities.
Progressive's Gareth Evans and Jeremy McKeown discuss the key factors that have impacted financial markets over the past week and take a look ahead to what lies ahead for investors.
Bond markets got the yips over talks of IMF visits for France and the UK. However, no one informed the FX market, and the value of the £ remained solid, helped in part by the weakening of the $. However, it's all relative, and the real value of things is reflected in gold and other real assets.
US labour markets showed more signs of weakness, but with persistent inflation.
US tech giants continue to dominate, but with little scrutiny of the returns that their substantial AI capital expenditures might yield. Oracle was in the spotlight this week, with some extraordinary results, launching its founder back into the top spot on the world's richest person leader board.
Despite our volatile politics, UK equities remain in demand, and risk assets more broadly remain in good fettle.
The long wait for the UK Budget might be because they are working on a cunning plan for growth, or they are simply waiting for things to improve. Of course, both could be true. Either way is a frustrating wait.
Meanwhile, the results and updates offer a mixed bag, indicating that the UK consumer remains active.
Jeremy offers a view on Treatt's fall from grace and its Board's disappointing acceptance of the modestly pitched PE offer the company received this week.
Looking ahead, the main focus will be on the Fed's rate decision, where the overwhelming expectation is for a 25 bps cut to 4.25%. But most people will be more interested in President Trump's second state visit to the UK, which begins on Tuesday. Shhh, nobody mention Jeffrey Epstein.
Brought to you by Progressive Equity.
DF Capital CEO, Carl D'Ammassa provides an overview of the company's results for the six months ended 30 June 2025.
00:00 Opener
00:16 Introduction
01:09 H1 2025 Review
03:25 Strategy Update
04:14 Looking ahead
DF Capital is a speciality lender providing flexible financing solutions that support the sales and growth of manufacturers, dealers and distributors operating in attractive underserved retail markets across the UK. As a bank, DF Capital's lending is underpinned by its award-winning savings products, straightforward digital platform, and exceptional customer service.
This week, Progressive's Jeremy McKeown and Gareth Evans debate Trump's ongoing attacks on the US Fed...perhaps Powell is rolling over, but the recently "sacked" board member Lisa Cook is not. The dollar fell and long bond yields rose, but not by much. France is showing renewed (and traditional) political risk, and the landscape across Europe feels pressured. The UK is once again facing an Autumn of Worry as the budget's tax-more-or-spend-less balancing act seems destined to repeat last year's wheel of fortune on which part of the economy will bear the brunt of new taxes.
In the absence of much small-cap news, the pair consider the misfortunes of Drax, the former coal-fired power generation group, now reinvented doing the "green thing" of burning wood pellets to produce electricity. This week saw news that the FCA is investigating the veracity of some of the their historic claims around the source of these pellets (Drax claims they're mainly "off-cuts" of wood that's already being logged). Whether or not there's an issue, it is possible that the attention might focus minds on the genuine green credentials of shipping wood across the Atlantic to burn it, and then claiming that by capturing the carbon released and then burying it, the whole process is "carbon negative". More broadly, some governments are actively against the renewables agenda, and others actively can't afford it.
Next week we get the excitement of US jobs data - Trump wants data weak enough to prompt a big interest rate cut, but not weak enough to look like a recession. Whoever's in charge of "deciding" the number better tread a careful line, or they might join the jobless stats for the following months.
This week, Progressive's Jeremy McKeown talks to The Brawl Street Journal, a source that posts on “second-order thinking on Europe’s markets, energy, and the collision between regulation and reality.”
The man behind this blog holds a PhD in international economic law, with a background in World Trade Organisation (remember them?) dispute settlements, and has worked with an international law firm.
He also advised banking clients on sanctions law following Russia’s invasion of Crimea.
He then worked in various economic and regulatory roles within Germany’s civil service, giving him a front-row seat on how subsidies, regulations, and political priorities work in practice.
The Brawl Street Journal was launched last year to help investors question the consensus, which its creator believes has been infiltrated by propaganda, as defined by the French sociologist Jacques Ellul, who wrote a book of that name in the 1960s.
The pair discuss how propaganda is often an emergent phenomenon of well-intentioned people, rather than the simplistic, malign, authoritarian means of control we usually envision.
They also discuss how net zero has become one of several propaganda myths of the established European consensus that have weakened the EU and wider European economies.
They also talk about the potential for a net-zero-induced crisis, similar to the global financial crisis and what the prospects might be for Europe to avoid this outcome.
With that, please enjoy Jeremy's conversation with the maverick behind The Brawl Street Journal.
This week has been relatively quiet. Progressive's Gareth Evans and Jeremy McKeown discuss the prospects for peace in Europe, the not quite so bad news, but still not good news, about the UK economy and our public finances.
UK inflation and the long end of the gilt market both look like they might be getting out of control. UK inflation has now been above target for 49 out of the last 51 reports. Not conventionally a scenario in which to cut rates, unless, of course, it is transitory.
Jeremy talks about the significance of Jay Powell's speech at Jackson Hole and asks whether he is prepared to die on the hill of inflation and central bank independence.
Gareth then highlights the dramatic warning and share price reaction from WHSmith this week and its potential implications.
Progressive's Jeremy McKeown recently spoke to Charlie Morris, an investor, entrepreneur, and advocate for hard assets.
Charlie has 27 years of experience in fund management, with a reputation for actively managing multi-asset portfolios.
Charlie was previously the Head of Absolute Return at HSBC Global Asset Management, where he managed $3bn of assets.
He writes research for private clients, providing actionable model portfolios that cover equities, bonds, commodities, and other alternative assets.
Having discovered gold in the early 2000s, Charlie was an early entrant into the Bitcoin rabbit hole. In 2013, Charlie founded ByteTree, which he initially intended to be the “Bloomberg for Bitcoin”.
However, he was unable to find a workable revenue model. With start-ups, being early is just another way of being wrong.
In 2022, he launched a Bitcoin and gold ETF (BOLD SW). A fund that remains unauthorised in the UK, albeit available to sophisticated investors on other European exchanges.
As Charlie says, he developed BOLD as a new take on the traditional 60:40 portfolio.
He identified a valuable low level of correlation between its constituents, Bitcoin and gold, which he has exploited to deliver impressive results.
Towards the end of this chat, Jeremy and Charlie trade thoughts on the latest UK microcap craze for Bitcoin treasury companies, which Charlie believes is unsustainable and just the result of regulatory arbitrage.
With that, please enjoy Jeremy's conversation with the maverick, Charlie Morris.