In the last episode of 2025, Progressive's Gareth Evans and Jeremy McKeown discuss the significant events of the week, including volatile equities, what precious metals prices are telling us, and the ups and downs of oil prices, with the US Navy on patrol offshore of Venezuela.
There has been a data dump of macro numbers and rate decisions, and an important decision by Europe's leaders not to seize frozen Russian assets.
Overall, the critical question for investors in 2026 is whether central banks have done enough to tame inflation and pave the way for lower rates. Jeremy again highlights Japan as a source of risk to the bullish scenario.
Next week will be quiet, but always worth noting who might be sneaking out RNS's last thing on Christmas Eve.
Progressive's Jeremy McKeown and Gareth Evans discuss the main events of the last week in financial markets.
The primary focus is on the mixed messaging from the Federal Reserve with its interest rate decision described as a hawkish cut. Jeremy describes how we might interpret this move, which is now signalling only one further rate cut in 2026.
Kevin "The Real Asset" Hassett is widely expected to be announced as Jay Powell's successor in January. Further, this has also been widely interpreted as allowing inflation expectations to run wild, thereby impacting the prices of gold and silver.
However, the Fed decision makers are also looking at their responsibilities for employment and the functioning of financial markets. To this end, you might be mistaken that they have restarted QE. The move to inject liquidity into the short-term money markets might not be strictly QE, but it does expand the Fed's balance sheet, at least in the short term.
Jeremy points to Japan as the source of the market dysfunction that policymakers might be preempting via this (temporary) injection.
In US megacap land, news comes of a $1.5 trillion IPO for SpaceX, and a busy week for the Ellison family. Larry Ellison's Oracle highlighted the risks around the AI data centre build-out, but also his son and other high-profile backers were behind the $108bn hostile bid for Warner Bros.
Jeremy highlights the precedent for such giant hostile bids, and it is an interesting list! Surely nothing to see here.
Looking ahead, there will be further evidence next week of the weakening US jobs market.
The events in Venezuela and the Ukraine peace process will also be centre stage.
Cerillion CEO, Louis Hall and CFO, Andrew Dickson, present the company's results for the 12 months ended 30 September 2025, followed by Q&A.
Louis Hall, CEO
00:16 Introduction
00:32 About Cerillion
01:38 Product Delivery Model
03:04 BSS/OSS Market Size
04:07 FY2025 Highlights
11:20 Competitive Landscape
Andrew Dickson, CFO
12:45 2025 KPIs
17:13 2025 Financial Highlights
18:41 Cash Generation
20:10 Income Statement
20:56 Balance Sheet
Louis Hall, CEO
21:26 New Logo Sales Pipeline, New Orders and Back-Order
22:06 Summary & Outlook
22:30 Q&A
Cerillion has a 26-year track record in providing mission-critical software for billing, charging and customer relationship management ("CRM"), mainly to the telecommunications sector but also to other markets, including utilities and financial services. The Company has c.70 customer installations across c. 45 countries.
Headquartered in London, Cerillion also has operations in India and Bulgaria as well as a sales presence in the USA, Singapore and Australia.
The business was originally part of Logica plc before its management buyout, led by CEO, Louis Hall, in 1999. The Company joined AIM in March 2016.
www.cerillion.com
This week Progressive's Jeremy McKeown and Gareth Evans discuss mainly the apparent confusion of bitcoin falling while other “inflation hedge” or “real asset” measures like gold and silver are at or close to all-time highs. Jeremy has four or five reasons why this might be the case - all of which highlight the usefulness of bitcoin’s “always on” trading 24/7 as a barometer or investor opinion.
Macro markets have helped Rachel Reeves avoid short-term repercussions of the Budget.
Next week’s Fed rate decision may be overshadowed by gyrations around the potential seizure of Russian monies - and what that means for the value of the dollar in the eyes of anyone who might one day upset the West.
IG Design Group Interim Executive Chair, Stewart Gilliland and CFO, Rohan Cummings, present the group's results for the six months ended 30 September 2025, followed by Q&A.
Stewart Gilliland, Interim Executive Chair
00:16 Introduction
01:18 HY2026 Summary
Rohan Cummings, CFO
02:22 Group Revenue
03:18 Adjusted Operating Profit
04:27 Segmental Performance
07:27 Financial Summary
09:25 Cash Flow
Stewart Gilliland, Interim Executive Chair
10:51 The Group Today
12:42 Design Group Europe
14:05 Design Group UK
15:49 Design Group Australia
Rohan Cummings, CFO
16:59 Guidance
Stewart Gilliland, Interim Executive Chair
17:50 Long-term Growth Drivers
19:32 Case Study
20:13 ESG
21:16 Outlook
22:00 Q&A
IG Design Group plc is a leading designer, innovator and manufacturer across various celebration and creative categories.
For further information please visit www.thedesigngroup.com.
This week Progressive's Jeremy McKeown and Gareth Evans discuss mainly the apparent confusion of bitcoin falling while other “inflation hedge” or “real asset” measures like gold and silver are at or close to all-time highs. Jeremy has four or five reasons why this might be the case - all of which highlight the usefulness of bitcoin’s “always on” trading 24/7 as a barometer or investor opinion.
Macro markets have helped Rachel Reeves avoid short-term repercussions of the Budget.
Next week’s Fed rate decision may be overshadowed by gyrations around the potential seizure of Russian monies - and what that means for the value of the dollar in the eyes of anyone who might one day upset the West.
Progressive’s Jeremy McKeown visited Buenos Aires last November to understand the early impact of President Javier Milei’s election, guided in part by insights from Jeffrey Stout, a US-born businessman whose pro-Milei perspective stood out during Jeremy’s research. A year on, with midterms complete, Jeremy reconnects with Jeffrey to reflect on what has changed and how Argentina’s trajectory now looks.
Jeremy visited Buenos Aires in November last year, wanting to see firsthand what was going on under the newly elected President, Javier Milei. He met some fascinating people who shared their stories and perspectives on the Milei Revolution.
As he was researching an article about his visit, he read some early accounts of the rise of Milei and the stories told about him in 2022 and early 2023.
In the readers’ comments section under a rather scathing article about him in the Buenos Aires Times, there was a short but forthright comment that explained why the reader thought Milei was likely to win the Presidency. It was from a reader named Jeffrey Stout, who seemed to be a lone voice in the comments section, taking this counter view.
Jeffrey, a successful businessman and US citizen, knew what he was talking about, and he kindly spent a couple of hours helping understand a few fundamentals of how things worked, or most often didn’t work, in his adopted country.
12 months on, with the midterms out of the way, Jeremy reconnected with Jeffrey for an update on what had happened over the year since they met, and how he sees things shaping up.
On the 27th of November, Progressive's Jeremy McKeown had the good fortune to speak with Simon French, Head of Research at Panmure Liberum, and Thomas Moore, Senior Investment Director at Aberdeen, to discuss the UK Budget and its implications.
Simon, who writes a regular column in the Times, is a go-to person on the UK economy, and Thomas is steeped in experience and understanding of the value and income attractions of UK equities, with a long and successful track record of managing the Aberdeen Equity Income Trust.
They had a great chat and distinguished the essential differences between the UK economy and the UK market. But also at the risk of mansplaining, they also identified what more needs to be done for the UK economy to deliver growth and, importantly, to make UK assets more attractive to global capital.
Please enjoy Jeremy's conversation with Simon French and Thomas Moore.
Progressive's Ian Robertson and George O'Connor wish ChatGPT a Happy Birthday before cantering through recent UK small tech updates.
ActiveOps – going well, but could short-term brokers and metric-obsessed fund managers stop this little gem from reaching its full potential
Cerillion – a pause for breath, year, still well positioned, cash generative with excellent margins
GBG – it is going to be hard work, but the management looks to be up to the challenge
Then, looking to Autodesk, George considers changing charging / accounting models when faced with AI and difficult wider economics – doesn’t the market see right through this?
As Americans took a break to overindulge on Thanksgiving, we Brits were forced to listen to our government explain how they had overindulged recently and how we must now pay for it. This week, Progressive's three wise men mansplain the Budget and its implications.
Jeremy and Gareth are joined by Progressive building and construction analyst and Property Week columnist, Alastair Stewart, to offer his views on the likely impact on the UK housing and housebuilding markets following Rachel Reeves' second Budget. Spoiler alert, he's bullish.
Looking ahead, Jeremy expects an easing of financial conditions from the US as, among other things, the White House considers ways to improve the Republicans' chances in next year's Congressional midterms.
Progressive's George O'Connor and Ian Robertson catch up on the news and events affecting UK-listed tech companies.
George and Ian consider Sage’s recent full-year results and where it can go from here. Its cloud-based US acquisition Intacct, has shown what can be done, but is Sage condemned to a life in the slow lane by its parochial home market’s love of yield and misunderstanding of growth.
They also ponder the challenges that the new CEO faces at Tracsis. Not least of which, in a similar theme to Sage, is its technical debt. Although it’s worth remembering its customer base, which might be more suited to a legacy approach after all.
This week Progressive's Jeremy McKeown and Gareth Evans start by talking about the market changing its mind twice, and quite materially. The positive reaction to the US government's reopening was short-lived, as was the delight at NVIDIA's blowout earnings on Wednesday. In both cases, prices were boosted by good news, only to drift - in NVIDIA's case by 8% top-to-bottom in the course of just a day. Markets always move, but these are huge deltas on some very large amounts of capital. Lots of things are overlapping so discerning worries about AI from worries about the economic outlook is almost impossible.
Our traditional reminder to keep one eye on Japan, where 10-year bond yields are soaring and the currency dropping...beware the carry trade unwinding with a bump.
In the UK, we're all waiting to see which of the many-mooted taxes will be inflicted on us - the chances of a real surprise look pretty small. Progressive client Gear4Music delivered a strong H1 result, perhaps demonstrating the resilience and operational gearing that we've been discussing may be a feature of a large number of UK micro-caps. They have weathered Brexit, Covid, supply chain pressure and now consumer pain - with costs kept lean and strong operational efficiency, any recovery will flow straight to the bottom line - which is exactly what G4M has demonstrated.
Next week we have US retail sales and durable goods data, and FOMC members with a number of speeches in the diary. Confusion and contradiction remain, as the US economy sees Wall Street (mainly the Magnificent 7) whose AI and capex-fuelled world is growing rapidly, contrast sharply with Main Street where the average American is feeling real pain. Should interest rates be set to rein in tech-bro exuberance and gently deflate a potential bubble, or to give some cost-of-living relief to the down-trodden masses?
Progressive's George O'Connor and Ian Robertson catch up on the news and events affecting UK-listed tech companies.
Rightmove’s share price reaction to management’s decision to accelerate its investment in AI suggests that the market is not comfortable with AI and is in bear case hunt mode. Looking at Rightmove, Trainline, Autotrader et al. it is clear that AI is going to make a difference, but it is not changing that many business models.
We consider Kainos’ results and George talks us through how the business has evolved before contemplating whether there will be or, perhaps can be, a budget flush coming as those with IT budgets use it or lose it in the final months of the year.
We look forward to Sage’s forthcoming results by looking at Xero’s just gone and consider how business models and routes to market have evolved, then look to the potential float of Visma next year.
Brought to you by Progressive.
Progressive's Jeremy McKeown speaks with renowned global thematic investor Mark Farrington, exploring decades of Asian market shifts—from Japan’s boom and bust to China’s emerging challenges.
Two of Jeremy's guests this year from the world of global thematic investing, David Dredge and Marvin Barth, both cited Mark Farrington as someone they refer to for insight, particularly on developments in Asia.
Mark Farrington writes about global thematic investing in his Watchtower series on Substack: The Global Watchtower, The Dollar Watchtower, and the BoJ Watchtower. Mark is as prolific as he is insightful.
Jeremy caught up with Mark for a fascinating conversation about his experience and learnings from a long career following developments in Asia —from the rise of Japan in the 70s and 80s to its lost decade and the rise of China.
In particular, he was keen to ask Mark whether Japan can normalise its monetary policy without collapsing the global financial system. Will China follow Japan into a lost decade of debt deflation? And how poorly understood Asian markets might impact our economies and financial markets in a new world order marked by the reassertion of economic nationalism.
Mark delivered a masterclass on the hows and whys of global thematic investing. It is an episode that should have a long shelf life.
With that, please enjoy Jeremy's conversation with global thematic investor Mark Farrington.
Progressive's Jeremy McKeown and Gareth Evans discuss the week's events, with a greater focus on the UK, following the Reeves bombshell overnight that she has pivoted away from her previous indication that she would raise income tax for the first time in 50 years at the upcoming Budget on November 26th.
This suggestion across most front pages today has thrown the gilts and the value of the pound into some turmoil.
Meanwhile, in the US, the government is reopening, but to the realisation that continuing to borrow without spending has exacerbated tight dollar liquidity, as evidenced by the sharp fall in Bitcoin.
We are entering a more volatile market phase amid the absence of official US government data on October's employment and inflation. Essentially, investors must fly blind through a period of stormy weather. What could go wrong?
In the UK equity market, despite the politics, things are looking incrementally better, with the IPO market showing signs of fully opening up.
Gareth highlights FDM and Jeremy 4imprint as examples of how to cope with difficult times and manage expectations. Both companies had inline or marginal upgrades, and their share prices responded strongly.
Looking ahead, with the US remaining quiet, it's about inflation data from the UK and Japan, both high and sticky, and increasingly problematic.
Investors in the UK will be on the latest developments from the rumour mill at No. 11. In the US, investors will be looking for unofficial signs that the authorities might be prepared to loosen conditions to ease the impact of the shutdown.
Brought to you by Progressive Equity.
As the world shifts away from net-zero absolutism, the UK faces a defining moment in its energy policy. In this episode, Progressive's Jeremy McKeown explores whether the government will save the North Sea industry—or sacrifice it on the altar of net-zero—with insights from Kathryn Porter and Martin Copeland.
As Keir Starmer and Ed Miliband return from COP30 in Brazil, Jeremy wanted to take a look at the UK’s energy policy amid a global backdrop suggesting the world is turning away from net-zero absolutism towards more human-centric policy options.
The Overton window on energy policy is being pushed aside by the likes of Tony Blair, Bill Gates, and, significantly, by the lobbying interests of big technology, and resource nationalism is being reasserted.
In the run-up to the next General Election, the UK’s energy policy will form a key battleground, and in particular, our sky-high energy prices and the future of our North Sea hydrocarbons industry will be critical factors in the debate.
Jeremy was joined by Kathryn Porter, Watt Logic energy consultant and Telegraph columnist, and Martin Copeland Chief Financial Officer of North Sea oil and gas operator, Serica Energy for a discussion about the UK’s energy policy and the future of the North Sea, for a hugely insightful conversation.
While they covered a lot of ground, the key question is whether the UK is prepared to sacrifice its North Sea oil and gas industry to the god of net-zero.
While it has already been severely damaged, it is not too late for government policy to save the jobs and energy reserves at stake, but action is needed in the upcoming Budget. This significant event could mark a turning point for an industry on the brink of destruction from the irrational pursuit of territorial net-zero at all costs.
This week, Progressive's Jeremy McKeown and Gareth Evans discuss a relatively calm week in the markets - China and the USA have reached a deal of sorts, the USD is slightly stronger but not so strong as to cause trouble elsewhere.
The Fed is confused (and will be careful, likely meaning rates staying higher) because America remains in a Federal shutdown, and data is scarce. Still, US equity markets remain robust, and Elon Musk is rejoicing at his trillion-dollar deal.
The UK, however, is still quaking at the impending budget, with so many possible taxes discussed that they can't all be needed...there may even be relief once the bad news is out. Trainline's results looked solid, but Tim Martin at Wetherspoon used a trading update as a platform to berate the government on everything from corporate regulation to nuclear power.
Next week - and perhaps many weeks to come - will see the US Supreme Court deliberate the legality of Trump's tariffs...so this week's lack of fireworks may be a postponement rather than a cancellation. What will happen when Liberation Day meets its own Judgement Day...?
Progressive's Jeremy McKeown and Gareth Evans discus the week's main market news, starting with the historic meeting between Trump and Xi, and praised Treasury Secretary Bessent for his role in positioning the market.
The Fed FOMC delivered a hawkish rate cut, which sent markets higher; however, things might get more uncertain as the US government shutdown starts to affect the collection of macroeconomic data for future releases.
They also discuss the improved prospects for Javier Milei to deliver his small-state solution in Argentina, following a surprisingly positive congressional midterm election result.
Meanwhile, the Mag Seven US mega tech companies continue their remarkable rise, with Nvidia still the clear winner. And the primary constraint on these tech titans' ambitions is reliable baseload energy, so it was unsurprising that Bill Gates and the UK government are signalling a retreat from specific net-zero policies and targets.
Finally, the backdrop and outlook for the UK's stock market is looking and feeling more positive than perhaps was feared only a few weeks ago, ahead of next month's Budget. A string of IPOs and anecdotal evidence, including the update from broker Cavendish, suggests we could have a better run into year-end after the Budget is out of the way.
This week, Progressive's Gareth Evans and Jeremy McKeown discuss the fragile peace in hot wars and trade wars.
There is a sense of finality about Trump's latest attempts to get Putin and Zelensky to agree on ceasefire terms. Trump is losing patience with both parties. The choice of Budapest as the location for Trump and Putin's meeting was no coincidence.
Meanwhile, Trump's on-and-off talks with Xi seem to be on again. The prospect of an emergent Grand Bargain remains on the table, giving equity markets hope.
Asset markets saw a significant rotation on Tuesday, with a dramatic collapse in precious metals prices and a spike in bond prices, leading to a decline in key sovereign yields. Helpful for both Rachel Reeves and Scott Bessent.
However, it remains unclear if this is just a short-term price correction in gold or a longer-term structural shift. Should investors, still fearful of the pending fiat collapse, buy the dip in precious metals?
Similarly, one needs to ask why bond yields are falling. Jeremy doesn't think there is any reassessment of governments' fiscal responsibility, but rather that it reflects worries about slowing economies or worsening credit quality in private markets.
Regarding the ongoing debate on the AI bubble, they discuss whether former UK deputy PM Nick Clegg can add any value to the issue. What do you think?
Looking ahead, Jeremy covers imminent US and Japanese inflation data and also notes the prospect for updates from the Mag Seven NASDAQ giants over the coming few weeks.
This week, Progressive's Jeremy McKeown and Gareth Evans consider Trump's quick switch from declaring peace in the Middle East to opening a (new) trade war with China, which has almost as quickly subsided, with the Trump/Xi meeting now "back on".
Jeremy highlights the ongoing strength of gold - FOMO bubble or long-term trend driven by debasement of currencies ? And the great rewards of being a gold miner - with unparalleled revenue per ounce, and costs of drilling and transport (often oil-based) in decline.
Bitcoin hasn't participated in the recent gold rally - although over a longer timeframe than the last few months, it has hugely outperformed. Perhaps both can be safe havens in a world of unaffordable government debt and spiralling-down currencies ?
Meanwhile equity markets have been relatively stable, although slightly spooked by the current pressure on US lenders, driven by greater-than-apparent losses flowing from a number of insolvencies that shouldn't have rippled the way they have.
Gareth talks about Gear4Music, Sanderson Design Group and Oxford Metrics, all of which this week have highlighted decent trading (or better) along with the benefit of much cost-control, in each case well received by investors.
Next week we have Chinese growth data and UK inflation which could exceed 4% for the first time in over a year. The end of the week will bring US inflation (they're still publishing despite the government shutdown) - anything much above 3.0% will both rattle markets and possibly cost someone at the Bureau of Labor and Statistics their job. Finally, don't forget Japan...Friday also brings their latest inflation print; as always we better hope there's nothing too surprising.