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Reviewing Chinese history with systems analysis
Vincent Yuanyi Chang
205 episodes
6 days ago

Understand the big picture for the sake of ourselves

email:vychang@alumni.ucdavis.edu

B.A. in History and Political Science, University of Claifornia, Davis, 2003
PMP, Project Management I institute, since2007
MBA, Fu-Jen Catholic University, 2008

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Understand the big picture for the sake of ourselves

email:vychang@alumni.ucdavis.edu

B.A. in History and Political Science, University of Claifornia, Davis, 2003
PMP, Project Management I institute, since2007
MBA, Fu-Jen Catholic University, 2008

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Social Sciences
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Episodes (20/205)
Reviewing Chinese history with systems analysis
Reflections on Mr. Bo Yang's Account of the Rebellion of the Thirteen Kings

This essay explores Mr. Bo Yang's unique approach to the "Rebellion of the Eight Kings" in his work Tongjian Jishi Benmo (通鑒紀事本末). Unlike most historians who write from imperial perspectives, Bo Yang reveals deeper truths about why the Western Jin Dynasty collapsed so quickly after its establishment.
Two Major Points of Bo Yang's Analysis:
1. The Problem of Official Historiography
Traditional court historians were obligated to write history from the emperor's standpoint, creating an inherent bias. For example, officials serving the seventh emperor faced an impossible dilemma when writing about previous rulers—how could they honestly criticize the fifth or sixth emperor without implying disloyalty? This constraint meant that official histories obscured the real causes of dynastic collapse, particularly during chaotic periods like the Rebellion of the Eight Kings.
2. The Commoner's Perspective
Bo Yang writes from the common people's viewpoint, applying modern principles of human rights, republicanism, and democracy. Instead of focusing solely on elite power struggles, he examines what drove ordinary people to rebellion.
The threshold for rebellion was extraordinarily high. Commoners were occupied with farming—essentially, one household's labor supported another household working in government or military service. People had no spare time and were naturally risk-averse. Even when suffering reached unbearable levels, organizing rebellion was difficult: commoners lacked weapons, training, and the ability to gather sufficient numbers against better-equipped local government guards.
The Western Jin Dynasty's Unique Failure:
The Western Jin Dynasty was remarkably short-lived compared to previous dynasties—lasting only about 51 years before collapsing into chaos again. This occurred despite the dynasty being established by a powerful family (Sima clan) who had carefully consolidated power over generations.
The root cause was systemic hypocrisy within Confucian governance. The principle of "tianxia wei gong" (天下為公—"the world belongs to everyone") was merely rhetoric. In reality, the elite class—officials and aristocrats—exploited common people for their own benefit. They lacked any concept of the nation-state; their only concern was personal gain and family interests.
The Military System's Fatal Flaw:
During the Western Jin period, there were no professional soldiers. Most guards were recruited from those who could read and write but didn't want to farm—essentially people seeking easy employment. Military service was looked down upon, so connections and family background determined appointments rather than merit. This created an army with no loyalty to the common people and no hesitation about harming them.
Conclusion:
Bo Yang's analysis reveals that the Western Jin's collapse was not merely about the Rebellion of the Eight Kings, but about a fundamentally flawed system. The transition from pure Confucianism to multiple belief systems (including Buddhism and Daoism) contributed to ideological instability, which, combined with exploitative governance, led to complete chaos just two or three decades after the dynasty's establishment.
We should appreciate living in an era with concepts of nation-states, republics, democracy, and human rights—governments genuinely accountable to the people, by the people, and for the people. This is the essential lesson history teaches us.
 



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6 days ago
30 minutes

Reviewing Chinese history with systems analysis
The Tragic Destiny of the Cao Family: Sentimentality and the Inevitable Fall of the Wei Dynasty

My reflection on reading the Zizhi Tongjian (資治通鉴), which chronicles the Three Kingdoms era of ancient China, leads me to appreciate how fortunate we are today. We live in a republic with a democratic system, division of labor, and balance of power—things that simply didn't exist in ancient times. Today I want to discuss the inevitable collapse of the Wei (魏) dynasty, which traces back to its very foundation.
The Paradox of Cao Cao's Genius
Cao Cao (曹操) formally established the empire's foundation, enabling his son Cao Pi (曹丕) to force the emperor to abdicate. But here lies the tragedy: both father and sons were multi-talented geniuses, and therein lay their fatal flaw. Geniuses excel at multiple things simultaneously, which becomes extremely difficult to balance. Cao Cao was an excellent statesman, outstanding literary figure, skilled in martial arts, and possessed remarkable leadership. His son Cao Pi inherited these gifts—brilliant in politics and literature—while his other son Cao Zhi (曹植) was perhaps the most tragic figure, a literary genius trapped by political circumstance.
The Fatal Flaw: Sentimentality
The Cao family's greatest contradiction was being both rational statesmen and deeply sentimental artists. How could someone write such beautiful poetry without profound sentiment? Yet this very sentimentality proved fatal. Compare Cao Cao with Sima Yi (司馬懿), who later established his own dynasty and unified the nation. Sima Yi was educated but utterly unsentimental—historical records show no poetry from him. He could order massacres without hesitation, as when he eliminated Gongsun Yuan (公孫淵) in the northeast, killing thirty thousand people to create terror that would prevent future rebellions.
A sentimental person could never order such killings. But to maintain power in feudal times, ruthlessness toward everyone—including family members—was essential.
Cao Pi's Burden
After Cao Pi claimed the throne, he faced enormous tragedy. Drawn into political conflicts while still pursuing his writing, he became overburdened and died young, around his forties. Though he gave his brother Cao Zhi cruel tests (like the famous "seven-step poem"), he ultimately gave him opportunities—revealing his own sentimental nature despite his political acumen. This emotional side caused problems: he would get drunk before important events, sometimes not even showing up.
The Pattern of Decline
This contradictory characteristic—excelling at both rational politics and emotional literature—created an impossible tension. Even with intentions to unify the nation, at critical moments they couldn't stand firm and act decisively. This allowed the Sima family to gradually seize control. The Sima family understood that in those chaotic times, there was no right or wrong—only power. They would do anything to maintain control.
Meanwhile, though Cao Pi forced the emperor down and ruled for decades, and his son became emperor for thirty years, they couldn't capitalize on their strength. Perhaps there's truth in the Chinese saying: "Born in hardship, die in comfort" (生於憂患,死於安樂). Cao Cao wanted to unify the nation; his son probably wanted it less; his grandson perhaps didn't care at all. Despite being the largest and most powerful kingdom, they lacked the ruthless ambition of the Sima family.
The Inevitable Conclusion
Perhaps another tragedy was that successive generations no longer maintained the balance or remembered the ordinary people—abandoning Cao Cao's original plan. They became too sentimental compared to the Sima family's calculated ruthlessness. Even if later Cao descendants wanted to act, they lacked the talent and ability. Eventually, they were replaced by the Sima family.
In the end, as the saying goes: "The beginning determines the end" (始已註定終). The Cao family's fate was sealed from the very start—their greatest strength, their humanity and sentimentality, became the weakness that destroyed them.
 



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1 week ago
30 minutes

Reviewing Chinese history with systems analysis
Zhuge Liang and Liu Shan: Idealism Versus Pragmatism in the Shu Han Kingdom

This analysis examines two pivotal figures of the Shu Han kingdom: Zhuge Liang and Emperor Liu Shan (劉禪). Popular understanding of these figures has been heavily influenced by the novel Romance of the Three Kingdoms, which often distorts their true historical characters.
Zhuge Liang: The Uncompromising Idealist
Zhuge Liang was undeniably a remarkable figure with an admirable yet ultimately impractical vision: to revive the Han Empire. He devoted himself completely to this goal from a collectivist perspective, willing to sacrifice anything—lives, resources, and the welfare of his people—to achieve his dream of restoring an empire that had fallen eight hundred years prior. While his principles might have been acceptable by first-century standards, his approach was fundamentally flawed.
The Brutal Reality of Northern Campaigns
During the cold weapon era, numerical superiority was crucial. As Sun Tzu wrote, if your forces are ten times the enemy's, surround them; if five times, attack them. Zhuge Liang launched multiple northern expeditions against Wei, despite Shu Han's severe disadvantages:

  • Territory: Wei controlled six parts of the land, Wu controlled two parts, and Shu Han held only one part
  • Population: Wei had approximately 4.5 million people with 1.03 million households; Wu had 2.3 million people with 520,000 households; Shu Han had merely 940,000 people with 200,000 households
  • Military burden: Shu Han conducted eleven northern campaigns, imposing an enormous burden on its small population

The campaigns devastated agricultural production. Men were conscripted as soldiers, women were forced into military service and support roles, and the brutal practice of burning enemy fields after victories meant no crop production for years. This created a vicious cycle of resource depletion that Shu Han could not sustain.
Liu Shan: The Pragmatic Ruler
In contrast, Emperor Liu Shan demonstrated greater wisdom and practicality. He understood the impossible odds and showed remarkable courage in his decisions. When faced with inevitable defeat, he surrendered without resistance to save his people's lives—a decision requiring tremendous courage despite damaging his own reputation.
Liu Shan also maintained a delicate balance of power between Zhuge Liang's faction and local interest groups, preventing internal conflicts that could have destroyed the kingdom even sooner. He tolerated criticisms and kept a low profile, showing political acumen that is often underestimated.
Conclusion: The Struggle Between Idealism and Reality
From both geographical and strategic perspectives, Zhuge Liang's vision was impractical and idealistic, while Liu Shan was pragmatic and realistic. The fall of Shu Han was inevitable given the resource disparity and the changing nature of loyalty after nearly two hundred years of chaos. The kingdom's story exemplifies the eternal struggle between noble ideals and harsh reality—and serves as a reminder that even the most admirable goals cannot overcome insurmountable practical obstacles.



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2 weeks ago
29 minutes

Reviewing Chinese history with systems analysis
The Fall of Guan Yu and the Breakdown of the Sun-Liu Alliance

Summary
This reflection examines a critical period in Three Kingdoms history following the Battle of Red Cliffs (208 CE). The analysis focuses on how Cao Pi's ascension to power in 220 CE—after forcing Emperor Xian to abdicate—destabilized the regional balance of power and ultimately led to the collapse of the alliance between Liu Bei's Shu Han and Sun Quan's Eastern Wu (Dongwu).
Key Events:
Strategic Maneuvering: Cao Pi's advisers suggested granting Sun Quan an official title to legitimize his territory, aiming to prevent him from supporting Liu Bei. Despite initial humiliation, Sun Quan's acceptance of this title demonstrated pragmatic leadership—he recognized the strategic value of nominal recognition from the north.
The Jingzhou Problem: The root of conflict lay in longstanding territorial disputes over Jingzhou. Liu Bei had promised to return this region to Sun Quan years earlier but never honored this agreement. Instead, he appointed Guan Yu as governor, creating an unstable situation with competing claims.
Guan Yu's Weaknesses: While Guan Yu excelled as a warrior in one-on-one combat, he proved inadequate as a regional administrator. His arrogance, poor treatment of subordinates, and lack of political acumen made him vulnerable. His decision to attack the north while leaving Jingzhou poorly defended was a critical tactical error.
Sun Quan's Calculated Strike: Eastern Wu forces, led by Lü Meng, recaptured Jingzhou with minimal casualties while Guan Yu was engaged in the north. When Guan Yu rushed back exhausted, he was captured and faced execution. Sun Quan's dilemma—whether to kill Liu Bei's sworn brother—was resolved when Guan Yu died, though the exact circumstances remain historically ambiguous.
Liu Bei's Response: Liu Bei's subsequent attack on Eastern Wu appeared to be revenge for Guan Yu's death, but the analysis suggests deeper motivations. Liu Bei may have allowed Guan Yu's fall deliberately, as Guan Yu's insubordination had become problematic. The campaign served to maintain Liu Bei's reputation for loyalty while eliminating a troublesome subordinate.
Historical Reassessment: The analysis challenges traditional portrayals (particularly from Romance of the Three Kingdoms) that depict Sun Quan as weak or incompetent. Instead, it argues that Sun Quan demonstrated exceptional wisdom and leadership by knowing when to yield and when to strike—qualities that enabled him to rule for the longest period of any Three Kingdoms emperor.
Conclusion
This episode illustrates how personal relationships, territorial disputes, and political pragmatism intersected during the Three Kingdoms period. Sun Quan's recapture of Jingzhou not only eliminated a powerful general and reclaimed ancestral territory but also exposed the limitations of Liu Bei's brotherhood rhetoric, revealing the harsh political realities beneath idealistic appeals to loyalty.
 



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3 weeks ago
39 minutes

Reviewing Chinese history with systems analysis
The Transformation of Chinese Society During the Three Kingdoms Period (220-280 CE)

This reflection examines the Three Kingdoms era as a pivotal transitional period in Chinese history, marking approximately 400 years of profound change from the late Han Dynasty through the early Jin Dynasty.
Three Major Shifts:
First, the decline of Confucianism's monopoly on governance and education. While Confucian learning had been the sole pathway to government positions since the first century BCE, this exclusivity began eroding during the Three Kingdoms period. Liu Bei's defeat in 221 CE symbolized a turning point—despite the Han Dynasty formally ending nearly 200 years earlier, many still supported restoration. However, by the late third century (270s-280s CE), people no longer believed one family could rule perpetually. The competition among multiple leaders demonstrated that family lineage alone couldn't guarantee the imperial mandate.
Second, the rise of pragmatism over idealism in leadership. The contrast between Zhuge Liang and Sima Yi illustrates this shift perfectly. Zhuge Liang pursued the noble but impractical goal of restoring the Han Empire, despite Shu Han being significantly weaker than its rivals—facing opponents six to seven times larger in territory and five times greater in population. Sima Yi, conversely, prioritized his family's survival and was willing to compromise principles for practical success. This pragmatic approach ultimately prevailed, with the Sima family establishing the Jin Dynasty, though internal rivalries quickly undermined it.
Third, the troubling transformation of intellectual culture. The elite classes, particularly those in government during the Northern and Southern Dynasties era, became absorbed in abstract philosophical debates rather than practical governance. This intellectual indulgence produced no tangible contributions to society and may have stagnated China's development for centuries, contributing to weakness that allowed northern invasions by the mid-ninth century (850s CE).
Paradoxically, this chaotic era also represented the last time ancient Chinese society experimented with diverse political systems, producing remarkably educated individuals across different regions who freely expressed varied perspectives. This intellectual diversity, despite its flaws, marked the end of an era of political pluralism in Chinese history.



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4 weeks ago
27 minutes

Reviewing Chinese history with systems analysis
Why the North Always Wins: Climate, Psychology, and the Pattern of Power

This reflection, inspired by reading Mr. Baoyan's "Comprehensive Mirror for Aid in Government," explores a striking historical pattern: northern states consistently defeat southern states in territorial conflicts, driven by geographical and psychological factors.
The Chinese Historical Pattern
The author begins with the Three Kingdoms era, noting how the Battle of Red Cliffs established territorial divisions along natural boundaries like the Yangtze River. The political intrigue—Liu Bei borrowing Jingzhou from Sun Quan but refusing to return it—illustrates the territorial tensions of the period. More significantly, examining Chinese history from the Three Kingdoms until today reveals that virtually no southern state has successfully defeated a northern power and unified the territory. This pattern began with Liu Bang (northern) defeating Xiang Yu (southeastern) after the Qin Dynasty's collapse and continued through subsequent dynasties.
The Sui Emperor Yang Jian had northern connections, Song Dynasty founder Zhao Kuangyin was a northern military leader, and even when the Song fled south, they were eventually destroyed by the Mongols—another northern power. The Ming Dynasty provides a particularly interesting case: Emperor Zhu Yuanzhang, aware of the Mongols' continued strength in Central and West Asia, moved the capital to Beijing for better defense and prohibited ocean-going ships, fearing Mongol return by sea. This explains why he sent Zheng He on maritime reconnaissance missions despite the general prohibition.
The Geographical-Psychological Explanation
The author attributes this pattern to how climate and geography shape human psychology. The harsh, resource-poor north creates populations willing to risk everything for gain—scarcity breeds aggression and ambition. Conversely, the warm, fertile south provides abundance, making people less willing to gamble their comfortable lives on military ventures. This was evident in the Three Kingdoms' Wu Kingdom, where the four great families of Jiangdong preferred maintaining their prosperity over risky territorial expansion. When you're starving, you'll do anything for more; when you have plenty, why risk losing it?
Western Historical Examples
This pattern appears in Western history too, though with exceptions. The Dutch became a naval power despite their northern location and Spain's overwhelming numerical and resource advantages. However, the British (Anglo-Saxons who fled to the islands after defeat by the French) eventually defeated the Spanish, exemplifying the tougher northern mentality overcoming southern abundance.
The American Civil War provides the clearest modern example. The North's victory was predictable because southern soldiers preferred staying home tending farms rather than fighting, while the industrialized North had populations already adapted to regimented factory work similar to military service. Southern reliance on slave labor for fieldwork created psychological conditions ill-suited for sustained combat, whereas northerners were psychologically prepared for organized, physical labor.
Modern Relevance
The author concludes that modern society, with its advanced technology and weakened connection to nature, may underestimate how geography and climate continue shaping human psychology and historical outcomes. By examining historical power shifts—from Chinese dynasties to the American Civil War—we see that environmental factors remain powerful forces influencing human motivation, behavior, and the rise and fall of nations, even in our technologically advanced age.
 



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1 month ago
28 minutes

Reviewing Chinese history with systems analysis
Three Political Systems, One Era: Power Structures in the Three Kingdoms Period

This discussion focuses on the eighth book of Mr. Bo Yang's Comprehensive Mirror to Aid in Government (通鑒記事本末), specifically covering the Battle of Red Cliffs during the Three Kingdoms era (late 2nd to late 3rd century CE).
The analysis examines three key aspects: political systems, north-south relationships, and the power dynamics between major leaders—Cao Cao (曹操), Sun Quan (孫權), and Liu Bei (劉備). By the end of the Han Dynasty, the empire fractured into three major factions, plus minor states in northern regions near modern-day Liaoning Province and the Korean Peninsula.
Three Distinct Political Systems:
Cao Wei (曹魏) - Cao Cao established a meritocracy that prioritized ability over aristocratic lineage. Though from the elite class himself (his father Cao Song was adopted by a eunuch, which brought social stigma), Cao Cao recruited talented individuals from common backgrounds, including Sima Yi and other capable advisers. His government balanced elite families like the Xiahou clan with commoners, using the latter to counterbalance aristocrats who weren't completely loyal. Emperor Xian remained a figurehead during this period.
Eastern Wu (孫吳) - Sun Quan's regime was essentially an oligarchy controlled by eight major families (the "Four Great Families": Zhu, Zhang, Gu, Lu, plus four northern families who fled south). These educated elites looked down on the Sun family as military protectors but needed their troops for security. All major decisions required consensus from all families, not just majority rule, which significantly slowed development and created factional conflicts between northern and southern family groups.
Shu Han (蜀漢) - Liu Bei claimed descent from Emperor Jing of Zhongshan, though this lineage was unverifiable. Starting as a commoner without resources, he was forced to cooperate with elites from Yi Province (modern Sichuan) and Jing Province. His government divided into two groups: locals from Yi Province and transplants from Jing Province. Liu Bei favored commoners and Jing Province elites to control local powers, though he relied more heavily on aristocrats than Cao Cao due to his lack of initial resources and connections.
 
Historical Significance:
The Three Kingdoms era is unique in Chinese history because three entirely different political systems coexisted simultaneously and competed against each other. This period also produced exceptional talent in military strategy, politics, and literature, fostering remarkable creativity and innovation.
 
#Three Kingdoms era#Battle of Red Cliffs#Cao Cao political system#Han Dynasty collapse#Chinese meritocracy vs aristocracy#Sun Quan Liu Bei power structure
 
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1 month ago
32 minutes

Reviewing Chinese history with systems analysis
The Chaotic Warfare of 2nd & 3rd Century China

Today, I’d like to talk about the second major event described in the 7th book of Mr. Bo Yang’s Tongjian Jishi Benmo—the turbulent struggle for power in the late Eastern Han dynasty. Many of you may already be familiar with the wars, the rivalries, and the rise of various warlords during that period. So rather than retelling the same historical stories, I’d like to approach this event from a different angle—the perspective of mindset and psychological dynamics.
To help us better understand what truly shaped this era, I will discuss it from three interconnected viewpoints.

1. The Court Environment and the Fall of Dong Zhuo
Let us begin with the political atmosphere inside the capital before Dong Zhuo entered.
Although the eunuchs appeared to wield enormous power, in reality they had neither armies nor real influence—only proximity to the emperor. Their situation was much like the Chinese idiom “a fox pretending to be a tiger,” creating an illusion of strength.
Dong Zhuo, however, was fundamentally different. He commanded more than two hundred thousand soldiers. Even when he marched toward the capital, he brought with him only ten to twenty thousand troops—yet this was already more than enough to overshadow the eunuchs entirely.
For nearly two centuries, the scholar-officials had resisted the idea of letting military strongmen interfere with imperial authority. But from Dong Zhuo’s standpoint, loyalty to a warlord felt more tangible than loyalty to the emperor. This mindset eventually drove him to attempt not only to dominate the court but to replace the emperor altogether.
Naturally, the ministers could not accept such ambition. They bribed Lü Bu—Dong Zhuo’s own adopted son—to assassinate him. Although Dong Zhuo was eliminated, the capital fell into chaos, countless factions emerged, and trust within the political center completely collapsed.

2. The Emperor’s Mindset and His Wandering Journey
Next, let us consider the psychological condition of the emperor and the imperial family.
Forced to flee in the midst of political turmoil, they wandered from one regional governor to another, hoping someone would shelter them. For generations, imperial family members had lived in comfort and were accustomed to being served. Suddenly deprived of security, they had no knowledge of how to survive on their own.
As a result, they lived in constant fear—unsure whom to trust, unsure even where they could safely rest. Eventually, one official accompanying the emperor suggested seeking refuge with Cao Cao.
Why Cao Cao?
Because his foster father, Cao Teng, had been the last respected eunuch of the Eastern Han—kind, restrained, and widely trusted. This connection offered a psychological anchor. The emperor believed Cao Cao might feel a sense of responsibility or sympathy toward the imperial family.
At that time, Cao Cao was already a complex figure—part statesman, part military strategist, and certainly a rising political force. Yet he was also someone who retained personal emotions and a sense of duty. Having grown up near the capital and visited the palace with his grandfather, he felt a familiarity with the royal household. His father had risen to high office thanks to Cao Teng, giving him yet another reason to protect the dynasty.
Because of all these emotional and psychological factors, Cao Cao made his crucial decision:
to escort the emperor to his base at Xuchang, safeguard him, and restore the legitimacy of the Han court.
Only many years later was the capital finally moved back to Luoyang.

3. The Mindsets of the Warlords
Lastly, let us examine the warlords themselves.
Those who had already built power through their own efforts were reluctant to bow to the emperor again. To them, submitting to imperial authority meant lowering themselves. Many preferred autonomy rather than surrendering the right to make their own final decisions.
However, simply holding the emperor without using his legitimacy was also pointless. Cao Cao’s advisers understood something crucial:
whoever controlled the emperor would hold the moral and political high ground when dealing with other warlords.
Many warlords hesitated between principle, pride, and self-interest.
But Cao Cao—guided by both emotional understanding and political calculation—acted decisively. His mindset allowed him to seize an opportunity others were too hesitant to grasp. And that single decision reshaped the direction of Chinese history.

Conclusion
What I hope to highlight is this:
Behind every historical event, beyond the battles and written records, lie deep psychological forces—personal fears, ambitions, loyalties, and beliefs that shape human behavior.
By understanding the mindsets of historical figures, we can also reflect on our own.
Before making any important decision—especially in the workplace—it helps to pause and consider not only our own psychological state, but also that of the people we interact with. When we understand these underlying factors, we make wiser, more grounded choices.
Thank you for listening.
 
#Power dynamics psychology#Decision-making under uncertainty#Learned helplessness#Machiavellianism leadership psychology#Psychological manipulation authority#Gratitude motivation behavior
 
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1 month ago
34 minutes

Reviewing Chinese history with systems analysis
When Trust Collapsed: The Psychology of Loyalty and Power in Late Han China's Gradual Fall

Hello, friends. Today I want to discuss the Seven Masters of Jian'an period and make comparisons between the past and contemporary times—or rather, the modern age.
Historical Context: The Late Eastern Han Empire
The background is the late Eastern Han Dynasty, from roughly the 170s CE until just before its end. The empire experienced a clear three-way division of power. There's a Chinese saying: "三尺冰,非一日之寒" (Three feet of ice doesn't form in a single day). The meaning is that significant developments take considerable time to unfold.
Consider this parallel: In 1985, most Americans still believed the Soviet Union was stronger than the United States. Just six years later, in 1991, the world realized the Soviet Union had never been as powerful as it claimed, and it collapsed. However, this collapse shouldn't have been surprising—it was gradual and inevitable, with the seeds of self-destruction probably planted in the 1970s or even earlier.
The Power Structure: Eunuchs vs. Local Leaders
Now let me discuss what I believe was a critical dynamic in late Han China: the competition between eunuchs and relatives of imperial family members. The ultimate winners were the eunuchs.
The eunuchs occupy a tragic place in history. As castrated men, they were acutely aware of their incomplete masculinity. Interestingly, because they were considered part of the extended imperial family, they could move freely throughout the country, building up their power bases and factions. The eunuchs, however, could only control the capital—there weren't many of them, and they had no legitimate excuse to travel around the country.
Moreover, they knew that ordinary people recognized they weren't complete men but weren't entirely women either. Because of this awareness and the stigma of their physical condition, they tried to remain as mysterious as possible, rarely venturing outside the capital. This became an unspoken agreement or mutual understanding: the eunuchs would send messages to local leaders—governors, generals, or powerful families—indicating they had no interest in seizing their power and benefits, as long as these leaders showed loyalty to them and the puppet emperor.
This created a de facto division: inside the capital versus outside the capital. Each region operated almost independently, with its own leader having control over local affairs. The nation became fractured.
Gradual Collapse vs. Sudden Collapse
If we say the Soviet Union collapsed suddenly, I would argue that the Eastern Han Empire did not collapse suddenly. It took 20-30 years to be certain that the nation had been divided and would not be reunified in the short term, even though the emperor still nominally existed.
My conclusion is that the Eastern Han Empire collapsed gradually and slowly. The eunuchs seemed very powerful, but that was only in appearance. In fact, they only controlled the capital. Their actual power was limited—they could use moralistic pressure against local leaders, and the emperor commanded respect only by words, not through real authority.
Dong Zhuo Breaks the Balance
The person who destroyed this careful balance was Dong Zhuo (董卓). Originally just a local warlord, he was required to visit the palace to greet the emperor several times a year. After several such visits, Dong Zhuo realized the eunuchs weren't scary at all—they didn't even know how to command troops. So he decided to control the capital himself instead of letting the eunuchs control it. This marked the end of the power-sharing arrangement between eunuchs and local leaders. What happened next—who governed with dominant power—I'll discuss next week.
Impact on Society and Loyalty
Now let's discuss the effects on ordinary people. In the past, members of the imperial family would travel around the nation to show themselves to the public as delegates of the emperor. But during the eunuch era, they couldn't do this because they probably weren't brave enough to show their faces to the masses. They would need heavily guarded carriages instead of riding horses and facing people directly.
This erosion of loyalty had profound consequences. When people realized the emperor was merely a puppet exercising symbolic power, they experienced confusion about authority: Whom should they obey? Officially, they still had to maintain the appearance of loyalty, but local leaders increasingly acted like emperors themselves. Eventually, local officials, bureaucrats, and civilians transferred their loyalty to local leaders. They no longer cared who the emperor was or who controlled the capital—they only cared whether their local leader would maintain their basic living standards.
Philosophical and Religious Shift
This confusion extended to philosophy. Officially, the emperor was still supreme, but practically speaking, he was useless and insignificant. The Confucian school of thought that emphasized loyalty to the emperor became unattractive, especially to the educated and literate classes.
On the other hand, Buddhism and Daoism—which offered ultimate truths and comforting teachings—helped people cope with reality and internal conflicts. This is one reason why, starting in the later part of the second century, more of the population turned to schools of thought like Buddhism and Daoism.
The positive aspect was spiritual exploration. The negative aspect was that people interpreted these philosophies in self-serving ways, shifting loyalty from the emperor to local leaders, and then to an even narrower circle: close relatives, extended family members sharing the same surname, or even just the nuclear family. Mutual trust collapsed or decreased seriously—a very serious impact from this era that continued for a very long time.
Comparison to Modern America
Now, to compare with today: I've mentioned the Soviet Union; now let me discuss the United States.
I truly believe Americans are very lucky that their Founding Fathers learned from past differences and either invented or created a federal system based on republic and liberty. They established a clear division of power—not just separation of administration, legislature, and judiciary, but also between federal, state, and local levels.
From my understanding (forgive me if I'm wrong), the President's authority is primarily over foreign affairs and national security. For internal affairs, the President doesn't have authority to make orders—it's more like a coordination role. If there's conflict, the President can mediate and resolve it.
State governors deal mostly with issues involving other states, while the rest falls to local authority—mayors or county commissioners handle local matters. Even the federal government, though the President is the chief, has many departments, and department heads have quite high authority to make their decisions. When there's interdepartmental or intercity conflict, the county council chairman can intervene.
Why Centralization Is Dangerous
The power and authority are widespread and separated. Looking at the past—not just ancient history but even today in Taiwan and certainly in China—it's still a mess because power is always centralized and unified.
Now you can see why Dong Zhuo, the warlord and general, wanted to be the dominator himself instead of remaining just a local leader—he would gain far more power. Remember that many governors and generals never attempted this. Of their previous positions over nearly two hundred years, only a few had the ambition or the ability to run for supreme power. Many probably retired because they knew they couldn't win such a contest.
But here's my key point: The President of the United States doesn't have that much more power than a governor of a major state. So Americans know what they should do and when they should step back.
The Enduring Problem in Chinese History
Looking at Chinese history, because it's a centralized system, that position represents ultimate power and ultimate authority. Everyone interested in obtaining that position will do whatever it takes to seize it. The only thing that sometimes kept people in their place was fear.
After the eunuchs' era in the Eastern Han Dynasty—something that occurred over 1,800 years ago in the second century, well before our current 21st century—a pattern emerged: Once someone became a governor or general and believed he had enough resources to challenge the emperor, he would do so. There's no modesty at all, only greed.
Conclusion
This may be the worst, longest-lasting impact of the first era of eunuchs in ancient Chinese history, which occurred in the second half of the second century. This is something that resonates even today—we still need to find a way to fix it.
Thank you all for listening. That's it for today.
 
#Eunuchs in Chinese History#Fall of empires comparison#Loyalty shift psychology#Trust erosion#Identity confusion#Coping mechanisms
 
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2 months ago
36 minutes

Reviewing Chinese history with systems analysis
Who Won the Combat?

Historical Lesson: The Fall of the Eastern Han Dynasty
Two weeks ago, I discussed whether people learn from history, using the Eastern Han Empire (second half of the first century) as an example. I explored how members of the extended imperial family competed with emperors for power. Today, I'm revealing the answer: from one perspective, the emperor won, but from another, nobody truly won—because the Eastern Han Empire eventually collapsed.
The Power Struggle
Members of the extended family initially held significant power. To maintain control, they worked with young emperors, then transitioned their influence to the next generation. By sharing power with other families, they preserved their authority even if it meant dividing it.
Emperors weren't naive—they recognized that their mothers, foster mothers, and wives had competing interests and didn't always prioritize the empire's welfare. This reality exposed the selfishness and darkness of human nature. Mothers often favored the majority of their children over the singular emperor, leading family members to compete against him for power.
Blood relationships proved stronger than marital bonds, prompting many family members to seize power from the emperor through alliances with ministers, nobles, and generals.
The Rise of the Eunuchs
Emperors discovered that eunuchs could be valuable allies. Eunuchs controlled the palace and, having been castrated, had no biological family connections—some even harbored resentment toward their birth families. This made them singularly loyal to the emperor.
Emperors empowered eunuchs to control the palace and broader government, using them to bring charges against ministers and scholars. The eunuchs became tools to eliminate or reduce the power of extended family members.
However, the eunuchs eventually realized they could control the emperor as puppets, just as the extended families had done before. They became the actual winners of this power competition, dominating for over thirty years across several generations.
The Empire's Collapse
The empire eventually fragmented into warring factions. By the late second or early third century, three major divisions emerged: the largest controlled by Cao Cao, the second by Sun Quan, and the smallest by Liu Bei. Cao Pi (Cao Cao's son) forced the last Han emperor to abdicate and claimed the throne himself, though he only inherited his father's territory.
Implications and Lessons
This power struggle had devastating consequences:
1.    Corruption of Values: Emperors granted eunuchs prestigious titles like marquis, elevating a previously despised group. Eunuchs even married and adopted children, climbing the power ladder and marrying their daughters to princes or sons to princesses—all for power rather than genuine relationships.
2.    Abandonment of Principles: Confucian principles were abandoned as people became purely power-minded, seeking benefits and privileges rather than serving the greater good.
3.    Loss of Loyalty: As people recognized that emperors were puppets and eunuchs held real power, loyalty shifted to local bases rather than the central government. More people abandoned Confucianism and turned to Buddhism and Daoism.
Conclusion
This historical example teaches us that our choices have serious consequences. When seeking collaboration or help, we must be extremely careful about our partners. A bad choice can lead to chaos and division—as it did for the Han Dynasty within just twenty or thirty years.
We must think beyond immediate problems and consider how our choices will affect the future. Be cautious about whom you work with, as they may change the direction of your future entirely.
 
#Power corruption#Trust and betrayal#Loyalty conflict#Self-interest vs. collective good#Consequences of choices#In-group/out-group dynamics
 
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2 months ago
35 minutes

Reviewing Chinese history with systems analysis
Buddhism in Ancient China: Causes, Effects, and Lessons

 
Buddhism first appeared in China during the first century CE. Rather than discussing it as a religion, I'll examine it as a system of thought, exploring its causes, effects, and the lessons we can learn from it.
Why Emperor Ming Embraced Buddhism
Emperor Ming of Han had an extremely troubled family background. During his childhood, even though he lived in the palace, he was separated from his mother—they lived in different houses. Other princes lived with their mothers, but he could not. His father had numerous concubines, and many of the princes had their own palaces from age fifteen or sixteen.
This created deep psychological wounds. While such arrangements might seem normal for an emperor, Chinese culture emphasizes collective values over individualism, making it difficult to simply ignore these painful experiences. Growing up in these conditions, Emperor Ming and other princes developed problems with interpersonal relationships.
Before becoming emperor, members of the extended family were dominant and controlled various aspects of court life. After ten years as emperor, Ming still couldn't fully manage these interest groups. He was capable of suppressing them but couldn't address the root problems. Tragically, his own brother, the Prince of Chu, even attempted to overthrow him.
Why Confucianism Failed Him
Confucianism doesn't teach people how to deal with extreme emotional situations. It considers an ideal world where everything runs properly—with standard ways for children to interact with parents, subjects with rulers, and officials with emperors. But reality doesn't match this ideal, and Confucianism doesn't teach how to face these discrepancies or how to find comfort in difficult circumstances.
The Effects: Two Sides
The immediate effect was mutual benefit. The emperor still performed Confucian rituals publicly, but privately embraced Buddhism for comfort. High and low-ranking officials followed his example, and common people—who faced daily suffering—also found solace in Buddhism.
Emperor Ming clearly needed something to comfort his broken heart. If even a prince and emperor faced such difficulties, ordinary people and government officials needed comfort even more.
The Long-Term Decline
At first, Buddhism provided genuine comfort. But over time, problems emerged. Within 50-70 years, by the second century, politics descended into turmoil. Officials and bureaucrats became less devoted to their duties, holding positions to support their families but making no real contributions.
Confucianism was no longer supreme. By the late Western Han period, political complexity meant young emperors succeeded to the throne, and power shifted to local governors and great families. People transferred their loyalty away from the central government.
By the third century, loyalty shifted further toward regional powers and aristocratic families. Buddhism and Daoism became the two major schools of thought from the third to seventh centuries.
The Darkest Consequence
Because politics was so messy in later Han years, educated people devoted themselves to increasingly abstract philosophical debates, memorizing texts and creating elaborate concepts divorced from practical matters. They became obsessed with theoretical purity rather than real-world applications.
This had a disastrous, long-lasting effect for centuries after Emperor Ming died.
Conclusion: China's "Dark Ages"
Reflecting on this period, I realize the third to seventh centuries in China could be considered a "dark age," much like Europe's fifth to tenth centuries. Before the first century, China was perhaps the most civilized region in the world. But by the mid-nineteenth century, China had become "the sick man of Asia."
Perhaps those four hundred years—when practical innovation and development stagnated—are a major reason why Chinese civilization declined so drastically. The lack of practical invention from the third to seventh centuries caused China to stop progressing and even move backwards.
The Lesson
This serves as a warning not just for myself, but for our children and future generations. Before we take action on anything—whether major decisions or everyday matters—we need to think carefully about the consequences. We must consider before we act.
 
#Confucianism vs Buddhism China#Chinese dark ages since third century#Buddhism political effects ancient China#emotional coping mechanisms history#psychological comfort religion#avoidance coping strategies
 
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2 months ago
33 minutes

Reviewing Chinese history with systems analysis
Do People Learn from History?

I want to discuss the old saying "history repeats itself." There are two interpretations: first, that people never learn from their mistakes, and second, that history's patterns naturally recur. I'll use examples from China's Eastern Han Dynasty (first-second century CE) to explore this from different perspectives.
The Imperial Power Struggles
In first-century China, extended family members of the emperor constantly fought for power, leading to repeated tragedies. It seemed they hadn't learned from events just a century or even fifty years earlier.
However, looking deeper reveals they did learn—but learned the wrong lessons. After generations of conflict, imperial family members realized that to control the emperor, they needed to cooperate rather than fight each other. Two or three extended families began working together to dominate the throne. Eventually, emperors figured out ways to eliminate these powerful families entirely.
This shows that people learned from history, but their lesson was "how to consolidate power more effectively," not "avoid the struggle altogether." When pursuing ultimate power and wealth, people become blinded by greed, leading to miscalculations—not because history failed to teach them, but because they chose what to learn.
A Broader Perspective: Dogs and Humans
From a universal perspective, people absolutely learn from history. Consider dogs—uniquely domesticated animals whose ancestors were wild wolves. Unlike horses, pigs, or chickens, dogs evolved through a remarkable historical partnership with humans.
Tens of thousands of years ago, wolf packs expelled their weaker, younger members. These outcasts discovered that living near early humans (Homo sapiens) provided food scraps for survival. Over generations, this relationship deepened. Wolves began barking to alert humans of danger, and humans recognized their value. Eventually, humans trained wolf-dogs to hunt and guard property, leading to the shepherd and hunting dog breeds we know today.
 
 
Conclusion
Whether creatures learn from history depends on perspective. From a narrow view focused on power struggles, people seem doomed to repeat mistakes—not because history doesn't teach us, but because greed blinds us to its lessons. From a broader evolutionary view, both humans and animals clearly learn and adapt across generations. History offers its lessons; whether we learn depends on what we choose to see.
Thank you for listening.
 
#History repeats itself#do people learn from history#Eastern Han Dynasty#dog domestication history#power struggles in ancient China#wolf to dog evolution
 
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2 months ago
27 minutes

Reviewing Chinese history with systems analysis
The Horrible Internal rivalry of the Huns in 1st & 2nd Centuries

Hi friends! Today I'm going to talk about the sixth book of Bo Yang's version of Tongjian Jishi Benmo (通鑒纪事本末), specifically about horrible internal rivalries.
The incident I'll discuss concerns the Eastern Han Dynasty's relationship with nomadic tribes. These weren't a single ethnic group but many different tribes with complicated relationships. What we can learn from these ancient historical events is still relevant to our lives today.
The Historical Context:
Sima Guang wanted to illustrate the stupidity and greed of people. The Eastern Han initially appeared to maintain peace with various nomadic tribes, but different officials had different approaches to managing these relationships. As we know, secrets can never be hidden forever—there are always whistleblowers or people who talk.
Ban Chao (班超), for example, gave each tribal chief extra favors so they would keep their people peaceful and obedient. But here's the problem: while the chiefs might keep the secret, what about their people? As tribes interacted with one another, they would discover that every chief was getting extra favors from the Han general, but no one was getting more than the others.
This created problems. The tribes became dissatisfied because they wanted more than their neighbors. Their expectations grew larger and larger. Back then, there was no paper money—only precious metals and minerals, which were limited. The Eastern Han's capacity to give was limited, so the general in charge of the western territories had to impose restrictions.
How the Rivalries Developed:
Now the real trouble began. From the Han standpoint, when a tribal chief came to the palace requesting grants, he needed to give a reasonable explanation. I'm speculating here because we're talking about events from the first and second centuries—nearly two thousand years ago.
The most common reason given was reporting that a nearby tribe was rebellious. If a tribe could eliminate these "rebels" and help defend the Han, they could receive great fortunes—far more than if they simply surrendered peacefully. Once neighboring tribes learned that eliminating others brought greater rewards, they too would attack their neighbors to secure more wealth.
This pattern started in the mid-first century and escalated into the second century. Across the western grasslands, tribes turned on each other to obtain grants from the Eastern Han Empire. This is why Sima Guang titled this section as he did—he felt sorry for those people who were initially unrelated but had to fight and die because of this system.
Modern Parallels:
Let me share some observations. In criminology, when studying theft, you'll find that thieves often succeed because someone around them intentionally leaked information or even helped them steal. In China, we have cameras everywhere, making it difficult for thieves to operate undetected—unless they have inside help or information about how to avoid the cameras.
Similarly, in the corporate world, especially among sales teams, there's a phenomenon where salespeople steal clients from their colleagues rather than finding new ones. Companies have policies against this behavior, but there are always rule-breakers. Why?
Just like the Han situation with nomadic tribes, it's easier to take what already exists than to create something new. It's selfishness and human nature. Many people prefer easy money. There's something psychologically appealing about getting something you didn't fully earn—it feels more exciting than receiving what you deserve.
This is why internal rivalry exists. Whether it's tribes fighting each other or coworkers competing unethically, when people can get something the easy way, why would they consider the hard way?
I remember reading somewhere that the cost of finding a new customer is four times the cost of maintaining an existing one. Stealing a customer from a colleague is probably just slightly more difficult than maintaining an existing customer, but much easier than acquiring a completely new one.
Conclusion:
Internal rivalry seems to be part of human nature. We need to use our rationality and righteousness to stop ourselves—or try to persuade and influence others not to do this. Thank you.
 
#Greed and selfishness#Zero-sum competition#Unearned reward psychology#Insider threat behavior#Rational self-interest#Scarcity mindset
 
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2 months ago
35 minutes

Reviewing Chinese history with systems analysis
The Dangers of Royal Life in Early Eastern Han Dynasty China

Today I'll discuss the Eastern Han Dynasty in first-century China, using three examples to illustrate the tragic circumstances of extended royal family members and why we should appreciate living in a republic with democracy.
Example 1: Liu Ying, Brother of Emperor Ming
Liu Ying was accused of plotting to overthrow the emperor and seize power—a charge that seems ridiculous and extreme. A successful rebellion requires three key elements: proper timing (such as the emperor behaving erratically), favorable environmental conditions (like natural disasters undermining authority), and support (both military and public). The Kingdom of Chu was impoverished, so Liu Ying lacked the wealth to raise a private army. Additionally, his mother had no influence in the palace. Given these factors, rebellion was completely illogical.
Even stranger, after supposedly committing treason, Liu Ying's mother and children were spared and retained their royal titles, while thousands of others were executed. The only reasonable explanation is that Liu Ying was a scapegoat—the emperor needed an excuse to eliminate ministers he disliked and used his brother's supposed conspiracy to justify a massive political purge.
Example 2: Ma Yuan and His Family
General Ma Yuan was instrumental in Emperor Guangwu's rise to power, serving as his highest-ranking general. However, he understood that the greater one's contributions to the emperor, the greater the danger. To protect her family from execution, Ma Yuan's daughter (who became empress) remained extremely humble, kind to servants and eunuchs, and kept a low profile. Under the extended family punishment system, if one person committed a crime, their spouse, parents, siblings, uncles, aunts, and relatives extending to three or four generations could all be executed.
Example 3: Dou Xian, the Emperor's Brother-in-law
General Dou Xian achieved what hadn't been accomplished in 200 years—he defeated the Xiongnu and expanded Han territory within just two years. If he had wanted to usurp the throne, he could have done so by commanding his army at the frontier instead of returning to the capital. Yet he came back, showing he had no such intention. Still, the emperor couldn't tolerate his power and eventually forced him to commit suicide.
Dou Xian likely didn't desire to be emperor because he understood the reality: emperors had absolutely no privacy. Eunuchs managed which consorts the emperor slept with each night, guards and servants followed him everywhere, and even during intimate moments with his wives, attendants waited just 10-20 meters away. Some people value freedom and privacy over absolute power.
Conclusion
Royal positions were prestigious but extremely dangerous—two sides of the same coin. By learning from history, we should deeply appreciate living in the 21st century with democracy, equality, freedom of expression, and governance through discussion and consensus rather than the arbitrary will of one person in power.
 
#Paranoia and power#Scapegoating in politics#Survival strategies under authoritarianism#Fear and self-preservation#Tyranny and mental health#Trauma of absolute power
 
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3 months ago
33 minutes

Reviewing Chinese history with systems analysis
Ban Chao's Diplomatic Mission in the Western Regions (Late 1st - Early 2nd Century CE)

Summary
Today I’m going to discuss major events in the Western Regions (西域) during the late first and early second centuries CE, focusing on General Ban Chao (班超), who successfully regained Han Empire control over this territory.
The Saying: "Clear Water Has No Fish"
Ban Chao famously said: "If the water is too clear, there will be no fish. If a man is too strict with others, he will have no friends." The deeper meaning is that top principles should be preserved while allowing flexibility on minor ones—some "dirt in the water" is necessary for life to thrive.
Context: Different Societies, Different Approaches
The Han Empire was an agricultural, bureaucratic society, while the Western Region tribes were nomadic. These fundamentally different lifestyles—comparable to the differences between Native Americans and European colonizers—required different governing principles.
Ban Chao's Three Core Principles:

  1. Maintain peace between the tribes and the Han Empire - Without sufficient military defense at distant borders, diplomacy was essential. Nomadic tribes raided because they lacked agricultural resources (grains, vegetables) that grasslands couldn't provide. If they had nothing valuable to trade, robbery was their only option.
  2. Keep peace among the tribes themselves - If tribes fought each other, trade would be impossible. Merchants couldn't safely travel, and resources would be destroyed or stolen. Peace among tribes benefited both sides economically.
  3. Use strategic negotiation - Ban Chao understood tribal customs and used financial incentives discreetly. He gave extra rewards "under the table" to individual tribal chiefs, letting each believe they alone received special treatment. This secured their cooperation while maintaining their dignity.

When Flexibility were abandoned:
One Han representative rigidly applied Confucian principles without adapting to nomadic customs. The tribes eventually turned against him, forcing him to return to China. This reignited border conflicts until Ban Chao was sent to restore peace through his more flexible approach.
Philosophical Reflection: "The End Justifies the Means" vs. "The Means Justify the End"
This raises the question: does the end justify the means, or do the means justify the end?

  • "The end justifies the means" suggests any method is acceptable if the goal is good—a dangerous principle without legal and ethical boundaries.
  • "The means justify the end" insists on proper methods, but sometimes situations demand flexibility.

The truth is situational. Ban Chao followed "the end justifies the means" by tolerating small bribes and accommodating tribal greed to achieve lasting peace and prosperity for both sides. While we shouldn't compromise core principles, most situations require us to assess conditions carefully and choose our approach wisely.
Conclusion:
Only a few principles are absolute—most depend on context. Success lies in understanding our situation and deciding what we should do accordingly.
 
#Ban Chao#Clear water has no fish#Pragmatic leadership psychology#Moral flexibility vs rigid principles#Diplomatic manipulation techniques#Consequentialism vs deontology
 
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3 months ago
34 minutes

Reviewing Chinese history with systems analysis
From Emperor Liu Xiu reminding the Good Old Days: A Taiwan Case on Social-Political Changes

Summary
This analysis explores the complex relationship between political leadership, media freedom, and educational systems in Taiwan, examining how people's perceptions of "the good old days" influence contemporary political discourse.
Key Arguments
Political Leadership Qualities
Effective political leaders possess three essential characteristics: they demonstrate genuine care and equality toward all people regardless of social status, they understand and work with natural societal trends rather than forcing change, and they remind citizens of better times while promising future prosperity. This approach represents a sophisticated political strategy that resonates with voters seeking stability and hope.
Media Landscape and Information Challenges
Taiwan's current media environment features approximately 30-40 television companies with nearly 200 channels, creating an oversaturated information landscape. This abundance of media sources, while representing increased freedom of speech and democratic progress since the end of martial law, has made it increasingly difficult for citizens to distinguish between factual reporting and opinion commentary. The proliferation of channels has paradoxically complicated rather than simplified access to reliable information.
Educational System Evolution
The liberation of education has brought both benefits and challenges. While the previous system under authoritarian rule used government-written textbooks and centralized curriculum, the current system allows schools to choose from multiple publishers and approaches. However, this freedom has created inconsistencies across institutions, making student transitions between schools more difficult and raising questions about educational quality and standardization.
The Psychology of Nostalgia
Human beings naturally tend to romanticize the past as a psychological protection mechanism. This tendency to remember positive aspects while forgetting difficulties serves as a survival strategy, but it can also distort political judgment. Just as people eventually outgrow fairy tales while still appreciating them from a different perspective, society must learn to evaluate historical periods objectively rather than through the lens of nostalgia.
Conclusion
The analysis suggests that while Taiwan has made significant democratic progress since the end of martial law, the complexity of modern democratic institutions creates new challenges. The key is developing the wisdom to appreciate progress while acknowledging that both past and present systems have their respective strengths and limitations. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for making informed political and social decisions in contemporary Taiwan.
 
# Rosy retrospection bias# Cognitive bias nostalgia# Defense mechanisms psychology# Collective memory bias# Psychological coping mechanisms# Memory distortion politics
 
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3 months ago
35 minutes

Reviewing Chinese history with systems analysis
The Rise and Fall of Wang Mang: A Lesson in Leadership

Today I want to share the story of Wang Mang (王莽), a man who saved China but later nearly destroyed it. This historical figure from ancient China provides a fascinating case study in leadership and power.
Historical Context Wang Mang lived during the transition between the Western Han Dynasty and established the short-lived Xin Dynasty. He came from a powerful family - his aunt was an empress - during an era when dominant families regularly controlled young emperors through a cyclical pattern of palace politics.
Why Wang Mang Rose to Power Several factors contributed to his success:

  1. He solved real problems - Most importantly, he addressed the critical Yellow River flooding issue that previous leaders had ignored due to personal interests.
  2. Strong reputation and character - Wang Mang was highly educated, well-versed in Confucian principles, modest, hardworking, and genuinely cared about common people's welfare.
  3. Political opportunity - The cycle of child emperors created power vacuums that ambitious families could fill.

The Peter Principle in Action Wang Mang's downfall illustrates the Peter Principle perfectly - he was promoted beyond his level of competence. As a regent, he had time to deliberate decisions carefully, consulting with the emperor as an excuse to think things through. However, once he became emperor himself, he was forced to make immediate decisions in meetings without this buffer time. This led to poor judgment calls that ultimately destroyed the country within 15 years.
Modern Lessons This story makes me appreciate our democratic systems today. Unlike imperial China's one-man rule, we have:

  • Diversified belief systems and organizational structures
  • Various corporate models (from CEO-led companies to collective board leadership)
  • Multiple governmental systems across 200+ countries to learn from

We're fortunate to live in an era where we can choose organizational cultures that fit us best, rather than being subject to the absolute power of a single ruler.
The story of Wang Mang reminds us why checks and balances matter in both business and government.
#Wang Mang#Chinese imperial history#Western Han Dynasty#Peter Principle#organizational structure#leadership & power



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3 months ago
27 minutes

Reviewing Chinese history with systems analysis
The Imperial Palace System and Its Impact on Chinese Character

Many people believe that China's Cultural Revolution in the 1960s-70s destroyed Chinese morality and ethics. However, I argue that the Cultural Revolution merely exposed character traits that had already existed for over two thousand years. These characteristics were deeply embedded in Chinese imperial culture, creating patterns that persist even today.
The Emperor's Isolation and Relationships
The Forbidden City contained 1,008 buildings housing numerous concubines and servants. Despite this vast household, emperors often struggled with genuine intimacy. Like a child with too many toys, an emperor couldn't meaningfully connect with everyone around him. Following Pareto's principle, he likely formed close relationships with only a handful of people—perhaps five, like the fingers on one hand.
This isolation led to some concerning patterns. Emperors sometimes developed inappropriate relationships with male servants or their former wet nurses, reflecting the psychological distortions created by palace life.
The Women's Tragic Circumstances
The imperial palace housed at least 108 women as concubines. These women entered the palace through various means: some were daughters of officials seeking political advantage, others came through selection processes, and some were sent by families hoping to elevate their social status. Despite the large numbers, most lived lives of neglect and unfulfilled expectations.
The Children's Fractured Family Life
Perhaps most damaging was how imperial children were raised. Royal mothers didn't breastfeed their own children—wet nurses handled this duty. Children lived separately from their parents and siblings, creating weak family bonds. By age fifteen, princes were forced to leave the palace to establish their own residences, while princesses were married off for political alliances.
This system created sibling rivalry rather than familial love. Princes competed ruthlessly for succession, while princesses served as political pawns to strengthen their father's authority through strategic marriages.
The Lasting Impact
These imperial patterns—emotional isolation, transactional relationships, and fractured families—became deeply embedded in Chinese culture over two millennia. The palace system normalized behaviors that contradicted Confucian ideals of filial piety and family harmony.
This explains why, even in the 21st century, we still observe certain behavioral patterns among Chinese people that reflect this historical conditioning. The Cultural Revolution didn't create these traits—it simply revealed what had been shaped by centuries of imperial culture.
 
#cultural revolution#filial piety#Electra complex#Oedipus complex#distorted personality#reestablishment of character
 
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4 months ago
38 minutes

Reviewing Chinese history with systems analysis
從美國校園食安改革反思台灣

FDA局長專訪摘要與校園食品安全反思
專訪概況
現任FDA局長馬蒂·馬卡里醫生(Dr. Marty Makary)於7月18日接受《美國思想領袖》專訪,討論他自4月1日上任以來首100天的工作成果。身為醫生兼教授的馬卡里醫生概述了FDA的改革議程,重點在於恢復該機構的自主性並改善食品安全標準。
主要改革領域討論
1. 藥品審查制度改革

  • 恢復FDA在新藥審批程序中的自主性
  • 解決動物試驗程序的相關疑慮

2. 食品安全與營養指導方針
馬卡里醫生強調了幾個關鍵要點:

  • 校園飲料禁令:支持最近美國衛生部的行政命令,將含糖飲料從K-12學校餐點品項中移除
  • 聯邦餐食計劃:由於美國農業部每日花費約4億美元購買學校餐食、聯邦雇員餐食和軍隊餐食,政府有權了解食品成分
  • 加工食品危機:70%的學校餐食由過度加工食品組成
  • 預防重於治療:專注於透過更好的營養來預防糖尿病和多種癌症,而非在疾病發生後才治療
  • 食品標籤改革:現行營養標籤需要修訂,讓人得以辨識天然食物和重度加工產品

3. 更廣泛的政策議題

  • 處理非法進口的中國電子煙產品
  • 食物食用指導方針
  • 強化國內製藥供應鏈

對台灣校園食品系統的個人反思
目前面臨的挑戰
學校午餐計劃

  • 儘管聘請了營養師和廚師,許多學生仍覺得學校餐食不好吃
  • 包裝問題:鋁箔包裝飲料(保久乳、豆漿、果汁),明明可以在本地供應新鮮替代品
  • 政府資助賦予當局監督食品品質和成分的權利

安親班和補習班

  • 這些機構經常提供油炸食品和高度加工零食
  • 與學校餐食形成不利比較,破壞教育營養努力
  • 儘管在政府許可下經營,卻缺乏良善監督

便利商店

  • 多家便利商店經常直接開設在學校對面
  • 例子:某學校周邊在一年內從一家擴張到三家便利商店
  • 這些商店販售高度加工、易上癮的食品,與健康的學校餐食競爭
  • 容易取得導致頻繁購買,不論營養價值如何

建議解決方案
監管方式

  1. 成分透明化:政府資助的餐食應要求完整的製成披露
  2. 年齡限制:類似菸酒管制,某些高度加工食品應限制販售給未成年人
  3. 立法行動:公民團體可倡議訂立限制有害食品販售給兒童的法律

品質改善

  1. 家長參與:鼓勵家長在專業指導下參與學校餐食準備
  2. 新鮮食品供應:開發系統提供新鮮飲料而非包裝替代品
  3. 跨部門合作:教育、衛生、商業、農業、建管和法務部門應在食品安全上協作

健康危機背景
台灣擁有全球最高的洗腎病患比例,腎臟病患者的平均年齡顯著下降。有些三十多歲甚至二十多歲的年輕人現在需要洗腎治療,這與飲食因素和高度加工食品消費有強烈關聯。
結論
政府責任不僅止於資助,還要確保食品品質和安全。正如菸酒販售給未成年人最終透過持續倡議得到管制,對高度加工食品的類似限制可顯著改善公共健康成果。目標是預防與飲食相關的疾病,而非在疾病發生後才治療,特別是透過更好的營養政策保護兒童的長期健康。
 
Exclusive: Dr. Marty Makary Reveals How He’s Transforming FDA
 
#Dr. Marty MaKary#Robert F. Kennedy Jr.#food policy reform#學校營養午餐#安親班餐點#便利商店氾濫

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5 months ago
31 minutes

Reviewing Chinese history with systems analysis
Sweat-blood horse wars and its implications

The Sweating Blood Horses: Historical Lessons for Modern Times
Introduction
Today I'm going to discuss the "sweating blood horses" from ancient times, exploring the stories from that period and their implications. In the latter part of my talk, I'll examine similar incidents in the 19th, 20th, and 21st centuries and what we can learn from history.
The Legend of the Sweating Blood Horses
First, let's clarify what these "sweating blood horses" actually were. The name isn't literal—it refers to horses that appeared to sweat blood due to a parasitic infection. These were likely the Akhal-Teke horses from Turkmenistan. The Chinese name for them was given much later, probably by Westerners in the 17th or 18th century.
The Han Empire learned about these exceptional horses through generations of interaction with distant countries. They discovered that these far-off lands had valuable goods to trade, particularly these precious horses from the east. According to Chinese historical records, these horses could allegedly run 500 kilometers per day for 20 hours straight without needing rest—though realistically, they probably ran about 3 hours daily, covering perhaps 150-200 kilometers per day.
The Strategic Value
In military terms, if your army has cavalry while your enemy doesn't, you have a tremendous advantage. Whether for battle, intelligence gathering, or peacetime communication, these horses saved significant time and provided extraordinary efficiency compared to ordinary creatures.
The Trade Dynamics and Conflict
From a commercial perspective, sellers naturally want to maximize profits by emphasizing product quality, while buyers seek the lowest possible prices. Smart consumers and business owners prefer to buy directly from wholesalers or original suppliers rather than retailers.
This created conflicts of interest. Retailers wanted to keep their sources secret, while buyers increasingly sought to bypass middlemen and purchase directly from Central Asian breeders. As these horses traveled the long trade routes, some people decided it was easier to steal them rather than pay the high prices, leading to what became known as the "sweating blood horses war."
The Han Emperor didn't initially kidnap merchants or threaten trade routes. Instead, he sent Zhang Qian to discover new routes to reach the original breeding regions. Zhang Qian's explorations revealed multiple sources, including Xinjiang and other Central Asian regions, establishing what we now call the Silk Road.
The Vulnerability of Valuable Assets
However, possessing such valuable creatures came with significant drawbacks. These horses required extensive time, effort, and resources to breed, feed, and train. This specialization meant that horse-breeding regions couldn't simultaneously develop strong military defenses, making them vulnerable to raids and attacks from those who preferred taking by force rather than paying fair prices.
As the Chinese saying goes, there are always two sides to a coin—positive and negative aspects to everything.
Historical Parallels: The 19th Century
Moving to the 19th century, we see similar patterns. China was buying tea using silver from the Qing Empire but refused to buy iron from Great Britain. This angered the British, who were running out of silver reserves. To balance trade, Britain began importing opium to China, leading to widespread addiction. When the Chinese government tried to stop this trade, it sparked the Opium Wars.
Interestingly, while the Han Dynasty had attacked Central Asians to obtain horses without payment, in the 19th century, the British wanted to obtain Chinese silver without paying for tea. The underlying dynamic remained the same across centuries.
Modern Implications: The 21st Century
Today, we see similar patterns with oil-producing countries. Petroleum is extremely valuable because virtually everything—from transportation to electricity generation—depends on it. Most modern machinery requires petroleum products.
Countries that produce oil are strategically important, which explains why global powers like the United States, former Soviet Union, current Russia, Britain, France, and China have ongoing interests in Middle Eastern politics. Has there been any year without conflict in the Middle East? This is the price of holding such a valuable resource.
These global powers have their own interests in influencing regional politics, but they often fail to learn from history, just as the oil-producing countries themselves don't always learn from the past.
Taiwan and TSMC: A Contemporary Case Study
Looking at my own country, Taiwan, I believe we're also not fully learning from history. Many view our semiconductor manufacturing company TSMC as an "ultimate shield" that protects us, but I'm not entirely convinced.
TSMC produces about 50% of all semiconductor chips globally, including the highest-end ones. Since no advanced or developing country can progress without semiconductors, TSMC's importance is undeniable. If TSMC stopped production for just one year due to war or other disruptions, the global economy would likely drop by 30%—a staggering impact.
While some see this as protection against potential Chinese aggression, arguing that China wouldn't risk damaging such a crucial global resource, I believe this strategy has limitations. The United States has already begun diversifying by establishing TSMC plants domestically, with Germany and the Netherlands planning similar facilities.
Conclusion: Learning from History
By diversifying production and reducing Taiwan's percentage of total global semiconductor manufacturing, we can lower the risk of any single country using our valuable assets as a bargaining chip. While we should continue profiting from our technological expertise, we must also see the bigger picture and understand that holding extremely precious resources can make us targets.
The lesson from history is clear: possessing something extremely valuable isn't always advantageous. We must balance the benefits with the inherent risks and vulnerabilities that come with controlling critical resources. Only by learning from these historical patterns can we better navigate contemporary geopolitical challenges.
 
#sweat-blood horse war#silk road#tea leaf war#endless wars in Middle East#TSMC and Taiwan#rare earth
 
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5 months ago
33 minutes

Reviewing Chinese history with systems analysis

Understand the big picture for the sake of ourselves

email:vychang@alumni.ucdavis.edu

B.A. in History and Political Science, University of Claifornia, Davis, 2003
PMP, Project Management I institute, since2007
MBA, Fu-Jen Catholic University, 2008

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