Hunter Craig sits down with Professor Edwin T. Burton of the University of Virginia to break down the most pressing economic issues of the moment: the Federal Reserve’s upcoming meeting, the meaning behind falling short-term rates and stubborn long-term rates, the fragility of today’s housing market, and whether the U.S. has already slipped into a debt spiral. Professor Burton also uncovers what’s really happening with global currency dynamics, the potential end of the current tariff regime, and the likely trajectory of inflation in 2026. The episode closes with a frank look at artificial intelligence — what AI is genuinely good at, what’s overpromised, and whether the massive capital pouring into AI represents a bubble. If you’re trying to understand inflation, interest rates, tariffs, national debt, or how AI fits into the bigger economic picture, this episode offers rare clarity. Episode Breakdown The Fed’s Next Move Why falling two-month Treasury yields reveal the Fed’s likely rate decision How recent money-supply actions signal a shift in policy Why mortgage rates remain elevated despite easing in short-term yields Housing Market Pressures Why supply remains artificially constrained When homeowners may begin listing again Expectation for national home-price behavior over the next few years The U.S. Debt Spiral Why both spending and taxation have reached political limits How U.S. debt compares to historical sustainability thresholds Why entitlement structures create long-term structural pressure Global Currency and Trade Dynamics The declining share of global payments conducted in dollars How tariffs have strained relationships with European and Asian partners Why political and legal pressures may force a shift in U.S. tariff policy Artificial Intelligence: Hype and Reality What AI is truly good at — and where its abilities plateau Why AI won’t replace scientific intuition or discovery How overinvestment could trigger the next tech-sector correction Whether the S&P 500 would look dramatically different without AI enthusiasm Investor Takeaways Why staying in broad index funds remains a sound long-run strategy What rising consumer weakness means for the next two years How to think about volatility ahead Professor Edwin T. Burton has been a cornerstone of the University of Virginia’s Department of Economics since 1988, where he has taught more third- and fourth-year students than anyone in the department’s history. A graduate of Rice University and Northwestern University, he brings both academic rigor and real-world fluency to the study of financial markets, behavioral finance, and monetary policy. Widely known for making complex economic ideas accessible, Professor Burton’s classes at UVA have launched generations of students into careers in finance, analytics, and policy. His dedication to mentorship runs so deep that the department’s undergraduate career office was renamed the Edwin T. Burton Economics Career Office in his honor — a testament to the impact he’s had on thousands of young economists. Beyond the classroom, Professor Burton is a sought-after commentator on issues like inflation, tariffs, and global debt dynamics, helping audiences understand how large-scale economic forces shape everyday financial realities. His mix of clarity, candor, and grounded insight makes him a trusted guide through the noise of economic news — and an ideal guest for conversations that ask what today’s headlines really mean for investors.   Disclaimer The information provided on this podcast is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not intended as financial advice and should not be relied upon as such. All opinions expressed by the hosts, guests, or participants are solely their own and do not reflect the views of any companies or organizations they may be affiliated with. We recommend that you consult with a qualified financial professional before making any financial dec

In this episode, investor Hunter Craig sits down with Professor Edwin T. Burton of the University of Virginia to discuss the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, its implications for interest rates, and what the Fed can — and can’t — control. Professor Burton offers his signature mix of sharp humor and deep economic insight as he unpacks the paradox of record-breaking stock markets amid mass layoffs, explores historical lessons from the 1929 crash, and shares his contrarian view on U.S.–China trade. Episode Breakdown 00:00–02:30 – The Federal Reserve’s Next Move Professor Burton predicts a 25-basis-point rate cut and explains why the Fed is often following — not leading — the market. 02:30–06:30 – The Stock Market Paradox While the economy remains weak for many Americans, the S&P 500 keeps setting records. Burton explains how a handful of tech giants are driving the illusion of prosperity. 06:30–11:30 – Lessons from 1929 Burton takes us back to the Great Depression, connecting historical monetary mistakes with today’s overexpansion of the money supply. 11:30–21:00 – Tariffs and China A candid, controversial take: Burton argues that tariffs weaken American competitiveness and that trade with China is beneficial for both economies. 21:00–24:00 – Predictions and Final Thoughts Hunter tests Burton’s track record on Federal Reserve predictions — and hears a hilarious confession about Burton’s stock-picking history. Guest Bio Professor Edwin T. Burton is a Professor of Economics at the University of Virginia, known for his expertise in financial markets, monetary policy, and behavioral finance. He is a sought-after commentator on the Federal Reserve, market trends, and U.S. fiscal policy. With a distinguished academic and professional background, Professor Burton blends academic rigor with real-world insight in every conversation. Connect with the Show Email: rubbermeetstheroadeconomicspod@gmail.com Subscribe wherever you get your podcasts to stay updated on the latest economic insights. Disclaimer: The information provided on this podcast is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not intended as financial advice and should not be relied upon as such. All opinions expressed by the hosts, guests, or participants are solely their own and do not reflect the views of any companies or organizations they may be affiliated with. We recommend that you consult with a qualified financial professional before making any financial decisions. Remember, investing and financial decisions carry risks, and it is important to do your own research.   Produced by Awkward Sage Media.

In this episode of Rubber Meets the Road Economics, investor Hunter Craig sits down with Professor Edwin T. Burton from the University of Virginia to break down the economic realities behind the AI boom. While tech companies are pouring billions into artificial intelligence, the rest of the economy is slowing — a trend masked by massive capital expenditures in data centers, chips, and defensive spending. Professor Burton explores whether AI is truly creating value or simply inflating numbers, what hidden distress can be found in recent bankruptcies, and how high interest rates and chaotic tariff policies are reshaping business realities. They also discuss the Fed’s upcoming decisions, the power of the repo market, and why inflation may be sticking around longer than policymakers hope. Episode Highlights The U.S. economy is weakening, except for the AI sector. Much of AI investment is “defensive” spending, not innovation. Inflated earnings depend on AI capitalization that may not be sustainable. Tariff unpredictability is wreaking havoc on global trade. The repo market, not the Fed funds rate, determines real monetary movement. Stagflation may already be here — inflation persists even as growth slows. Europe faces similar challenges as France struggles with deficits. The global economy continues to depend heavily on U.S. dollar dominance. Guest Bio Professor Edwin T. Burton is a distinguished economist, investor, and professor at the University of Virginia. His work bridges academic insight and real-world market behavior, with deep expertise in monetary policy, investment strategy, and financial market structure. Professor Burton is known for his clear, candid approach to explaining complex economic issues — and for being unafraid to question the consensus. Relevant Links University of Virginia Department of Economics: https://economics.virginia.edu Federal Reserve Meeting Calendar: federalreserve.gov Disclaimer The information provided on this podcast is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not intended as financial advice and should not be relied upon as such. All opinions expressed by the hosts, guests, or participants are solely their own and do not reflect the views of any companies or organizations they may be affiliated with. We recommend that you consult with a qualified financial professional before making any financial decisions. Remember, investing and financial decisions carry risks, and it is important to do your own research.

Investor Hunter Craig sits down with University of Virginia economist Professor Edwin Burton to break down the latest economic signals as the Federal Reserve heads into a pivotal meeting. With the S&P 500 topping 6,600 and Treasury yields hovering around 4%, the professor explains why he expects a 25-basis-point rate cut—and why a 50-point cut would create messy arbitrage opportunities. They also cover: The Fed’s balance-sheet strategy and how selling Treasuries actually raises rates Slow U.S. GDP growth (1.3% annualized for the first half of 2025) and what it means for small businesses Why declining consumer spending and speculative investment trends point toward a possible recession The reality behind crypto and AI hype—and why valuations may tumble Warren Buffett’s “five-minute fix” for the national deficit and why it may be too late Professor Burton offers a candid view of the U.S. economy’s next moves and why caution may be the smartest investment. Guest Bio Professor Edwin T. Burton is a renowned economist and long-time faculty member at the University of Virginia. Known for his clear, incisive analysis of markets and monetary policy, Professor Burton has authored influential works on interest rates and investment strategy and is a frequent commentator on national economic issues. Disclaimer The information provided on this podcast is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not intended as financial advice and should not be relied upon as such. All opinions expressed by the hosts, guests, or participants are solely their own and do not reflect the views of any companies or organizations they may be affiliated with. We recommend that you consult with a qualified financial professional before making any financial decisions. Remember, investing and financial decisions carry risks, and it is important to do your own research.

In this Labor Day conversation, investor Hunter Craig and University of Virginia economist Professor Edwin Burton break down the latest forces shaping the U.S. economy. With the September 17 Federal Reserve meeting looming, the discussion covers where rates are headed, the real limits of Fed power, and the political tug-of-war over central bank independence.   Professor Burton also shares sharp insights into America’s mounting deficit, the shaky ground under AI-driven capital expenditures, and why tariffs act more like a sales tax than a growth policy. From inflation trends to Warren Buffett’s blunt solution for Congress, this episode delivers clarity on issues that impact us all.   Key Topics: Why the Fed is likely to cut rates by 25 basis points at the September 17 meeting The misunderstood limits of Federal Reserve power and its reluctance to overuse the balance sheet Central bank “independence”: myth, politics, and global cautionary tales U.S. consumption and investment spending — and what they signal for growth The AI capital boom: Porsche-level hype or Honda-level utility? Why today’s equity valuations echo dot-com era bubbles Tariffs as sales taxes and their hidden cost to American households Why the U.S. deficit cannot be solved by “growing our way out” Warren Buffett’s simple (but unlikely) fix for Congressional overspending   Guest Bio: Professor Edwin T. Burton is Professor of Economics at the University of Virginia and a former partner at Rothschild, Inc. He has also served on the faculties of Cornell, Princeton, and the University of Chicago. His expertise spans financial markets, the Federal Reserve, and economic policy.   Disclaimer: The information provided on this podcast is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not intended as financial advice and should not be relied upon as such. All opinions expressed by the hosts, guests, or participants are solely their own and do not reflect the views of any companies or organizations they may be affiliated with. We recommend that you consult with a qualified financial professional before making any financial decisions. Remember, investing and financial decisions carry risks, and it is important to do your own research.

In this sobering and thought-provoking episode, investor Hunter Craig sits down with Professor Edwin Burton of the University of Virginia to unpack the harsh economic realities we face as the national debt approaches $40 trillion. Together, they cover everything from university research incentives to runaway entitlement spending, inflation, and the limits of Federal Reserve intervention. With a mix of wit, clarity, and no-nonsense economic insight, Professor Burton breaks down the problems that no one in politics seems willing to fix—and offers practical advice for protecting your financial future. In This Episode: How university funding and research grants may be contributing to economic waste The misaligned incentives behind academic research and tenure Why inflation may be the only solution politicians turn to The real drivers of federal debt: Medicare, Medicaid, and Social SecurityProfessor Burton’s unfiltered take on healthcare spending and political stalemates Market outlook for the second half of 2025 and why the S&P might not reflect realityStrategies for surviving inflation and preserving wealth through hard assets Guest Bio: Professor Edwin T. Burton is an emeritus professor of economics at the University of Virginia. Over the course of his 50+ year academic career, he has taught at multiple universities and is known for his deep expertise in finance, macroeconomics, and public policy. His insights cut through the noise to provide clear-eyed perspectives on America’s most urgent economic challenges. Call to Action: Liked what you heard? Subscribe to Rubber Meets the Road Economics and share this episode with someone who wants to understand the real drivers of our economy. For questions or comments, email us at rubbermeetstheroadeconomicspod@gmail.com. Disclaimer: The information provided on this podcast is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not intended as financial advice and should not be relied upon as such. All opinions expressed by the hosts, guests, or participants are solely their own and do not reflect the views of any companies or organizations they may be affiliated with. We recommend that you consult with a qualified financial professional before making any financial decisions. Remember, investing and financial decisions carry risks, and it is important to do your own research.

In this episode of Rubber Meets the Road Economics, Hunter Craig sits down with Professor Edwin T. Burton to unpack one of the most pressing economic topics of our time: tariffs. With political posturing, trade wars, and rising costs dominating the headlines, Professor Burton breaks down why tariffs are effectively a regressive sales tax that hits consumers the hardest — especially those with lower incomes. The conversation doesn’t stop at trade. Professor Burton also dissects recent inflation data, challenges the Fed’s narrative on expected inflation, and explains why the central bank’s actions don’t always align with market reality. From the politics of trade policy to the mechanics of interest rates and monetary supply, this is a conversation rich with insight and sharp critique. In This Episode Why tariffs act like a national sales tax—and who really pays for them How proposed tariffs are impacting U.S. allies and trading partners Why the narrative that “China pays” for tariffs is economically incorrect What inflation data is really telling us (hint: it’s not what the media says) The flaw in the Fed’s reliance on “expected inflation” What the money supply reveals about real inflation drivers Why interest rates aren’t as controlled by the Fed as many think Professor Burton’s take on Powell’s leadership and policy timing What historical examples teach us about inflation and money printing Guest Bio Professor Edwin T. Burton is a renowned economist and professor emeritus at the University of Virginia. With decades of experience in academia, finance, and government policy, Professor Burton is known for his candid, data-driven perspective on fiscal and monetary policy. His work often challenges conventional narratives and focuses on the deeper forces shaping the global economy. Key Links Learn more about Professor Edwin T. Burton: University of Virginia Faculty Page  Connect with the show: Email us at rubbermeetstheroadeconomicspod@gmail.com Financial Disclaimer Disclaimer: The information provided on this podcast is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not intended as financial advice and should not be relied upon as such. All opinions expressed by the hosts, guests, or participants are solely their own and do not reflect the views of any companies or organizations they may be affiliated with. We recommend that you consult with a qualified financial professional before making any financial decisions. Remember, investing and financial decisions carry risks, and it is important to do your own research.

As the S&P 500 hits record highs and inflation cools, you might think the U.S. economy is cruising. But Professor Edwin T. Burton returns to Rubber Meets the Road Economics with a more sobering take: the real warning signs are hiding in plain sight. In this episode, Professor Burton explains why the yield on the two-month Treasury is a more reliable predictor of Fed action than market sentiment—and why he thinks the economy may be heading toward a recession. He breaks down the pressures on U.S. debt markets, explains how AI might shift the labor force, and makes a compelling case for watching the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet, not just their statements. If you want to understand what’s coming in the second half of 2025, this episode is essential listening.   Episode Breakdown: Why inflation may already be “last year’s story” What the 2-month Treasury yield reveals about the Fed’s next move How foreign investors are retreating from U.S. debt—and why that matters Why interest rates may stay high, even in a recession The limits of artificial intelligence as an economic fix Arbitrage explained: how institutional players respond to Fed policy Predictions for Q3 and Q4 2025: weak consumer spending, fragile housing, persistent debt pressure How to think critically about AI’s impact on jobs, investment, and productivity   Guest Bio: Professor Edwin T. Burton is Professor of Economics at the University of Virginia, where he has taught for nearly four decades. A respected voice in both academic and financial circles, Burton’s career spans roles as a Wall Street economist, a financial strategist, and a sought-after commentator on monetary policy. He is known for his clear, no-nonsense analysis of complex economic systems and his ability to connect high-level financial trends to everyday realities.    Call to Action: Like what you heard? Be sure to subscribe and leave a review wherever you get your podcasts. For listener questions or topic suggestions, email us at: rubbermeetstheroadeconomicspod@gmail.com.   Disclaimer: The information provided on this podcast is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not intended as financial advice and should not be relied upon as such. All opinions expressed by the hosts, guests, or participants are solely their own and do not reflect the views of any companies or organizations they may be affiliated with. We recommend that you consult with a qualified financial professional before making any financial decisions. Remember, investing and financial decisions carry risks, and it is important to do your own research.  

 In this crucial episode, Hunter Craig speaks with Professor Edwin T. Burton about the alarming implications of recent U.S. tariff policies, market volatility, and America's mounting debt crisis. Professor Burton provides candid insights into why he believes markets have further to fall, the inherent dangers of current tariff strategies, and the troubling decline in foreign investment in U.S. Treasury auctions. Tune in for an eye-opening discussion about the true costs of tariffs, the urgent need for increased American savings, and actionable alternatives to avoid economic turmoil. Episode Breakdown: Why the stock market is poised to decline further The direct impact of Trump's tariff policies on markets Historical parallels and lessons from past economic crises The weakening of foreign participation in U.S. debt markets The urgent need for a higher American savings rate Misconceptions about U.S.-China trade dynamics Potential consequences if U.S. interest rates rise significantly Critical assessment of recent Treasury auction performances The escalating dangers of America's ballooning national debt Solutions for sustainable economic policies and debt management Guest Bio: Professor Edwin T. Burton is an esteemed economist at the University of Virginia with decades of experience in financial markets, economic policy, and international trade. Known for his straightforward, pragmatic analysis, Dr. Burton has educated numerous influential figures in finance and remains an authoritative voice in economic forecasting and policy critique. Connect with us! We want to hear your thoughts and questions about the economy. Disclaimer: The information provided on this podcast is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not intended as financial advice and should not be relied upon as such. All opinions expressed by the hosts, guests, or participants are solely their own and do not reflect the views of any companies or organizations they may be affiliated with. We recommend consulting with a qualified financial professional before making any financial decisions. Investing and financial decisions carry risks; always conduct your own research. Call to Action: Subscribe today and stay informed about critical economic trends impacting your future.

In this episode, Professor Edwin Burton joins Hunter Craig to discuss the recent implementation of tariffs by the U.S. government and their far-reaching effects on the economy. They delve into who truly bears the cost of tariffs, the unprecedented market reactions, and the potential long-term consequences for both domestic and international financial landscapes. Episode Breakdown: Introduction: Overview of current economic climate and introduction to the topic of tariffs. Tariffs Explained: Discussion on who pays tariffs and their intended versus actual effects. Market Reactions: Analysis of the unusual market responses following tariff announcements. International Implications: Examination of how other countries are responding and the potential global economic impact. Historical Context: Comparison to past economic events and policies, including the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act. Conclusion: Final thoughts on the future of the economy in light of current policies. Relevant Links: U.S. Treasury Secretary’s Statement on China and Treasuries Howard Marks on the Risks of the Trade War Axios on Global Investment Shifts Due to Tariffs Professor Edwin T. Burton is a seasoned economist and former Wall Street executive with decades of experience analyzing economic trends. As a professor at the University of Virginia, he bridges academic knowledge and practical expertise to shed light on complex economic topics. His optimism and deep understanding of historical and modern economics make his insights invaluable to listeners.   Disclaimer: The information provided in this podcast is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not intended as financial advice and should not be relied upon as such. Always consult with a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions. Call to Action: Stay informed on economic policies and their real-world implications. Subscribe to Rubber Meets the Road Economics and join the conversation on how these changes affect you.

As the U.S. deficit balloons toward $2 trillion annually and total national debt surpasses $36 trillion, the financial sustainability of government spending has never been more uncertain. Economist and UVA professor Edwin Burton joins host Hunter Craig to break down the underlying economic forces shaping America’s future.   Topics Covered: ✅ The impact of rising debt and deficits on the economy ✅ How healthcare spending is driving the debt crisis ✅ The unintended consequences of government-run healthcare ✅ Social Security’s flaws and potential reforms ✅ What policymakers could learn from private insurance models   Key Takeaways: 🔹 Government-run healthcare often leads to rationing and declining quality 🔹 Social Security disproportionately benefits wealthy retirees while failing lower-income earners 🔹 The absence of competitive pricing in healthcare fuels inefficiency and waste 🔹 Policy reforms could introduce more market-driven solutions to control costs   Financial Disclaimer: The information provided in this podcast is for educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial or investment advice. Please consult with a professional before making any financial decisions.   📩 Have thoughts on today’s episode? Share your insights and join the conversation by subscribing to The Rubber Meets the Road Economics Podcast. Connect With Us: Email: rubbermeetstheroadeconomicspod@gmail.com

In Episode 16, Tariffs are back in the news. On February 1, 2025, the U.S. announced new tariffs on Canada and Mexico—only to delay them for 30 days. What does this mean for American businesses, workers, and consumers? In this episode of Rubber Meets the Road Economics, Hunter Craig sits down with Professor Edwin T. Burton of the University of Virginia to discuss the broader economic implications of trade policy. Professor Burton explains how free trade creates both winners and losers—boosting economic growth overall while disrupting certain industries. The challenge for policymakers, he argues, is not to block trade but to support those who are negatively affected. Using examples from U.S. history, he highlights why tariffs tend to raise prices for consumers, disproportionately impacting lower-income households. The conversation also turns to the U.S. national debt, currently at $36 trillion and projected to hit $50 trillion in under a decade. Professor Burton explains why healthcare spending—not defense or Social Security—is the biggest driver of America’s debt problem and why economic reforms must address this issue first. Finally, they discuss Social Security reform, with Professor Burton offering insights on how a defined contribution model could provide better retirement outcomes while keeping the system sustainable. Disclaimer: The information provided on this podcast is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not intended as financial advice and should not be relied upon as such. All opinions expressed by the hosts, guests, or participants are solely their own and do not reflect the views of any companies or organizations they may be affiliated with. We recommend consulting with a qualified financial professional before making any financial decisions. Remember, investing and financial decisions carry risks, and it is important to do your own research. Connect With Us: Email: rubbermeetstheroadeconomicspod@gmail.com Key Quotes from the Episode 📢 “Free trade is actually better for everyone—if you compensate the losers.” – Prof. Edwin T. Burton 📢 “Tariffs make all of us poorer, and the people who pay the highest price are lower-income consumers.” – Prof. Edwin T. Burton 📢 “If Detroit is threatened by competition, the right answer is not tariffs—it’s helping those who lose their jobs.” – Prof. Edwin T. Burton 📢 “The U.S. debt crisis is primarily a healthcare problem. If we don’t control healthcare costs, we won’t fix the debt.” – Prof. Edwin T. Burton 📢 “Social Security is fixable. Healthcare is the real challenge.” – Prof. Edwin T. Burton    

This week on Rubber Meets The Road Economics, investor Hunter Craig sits down with Professor Edwin Burton of the University of Virginia to discuss: Why the Fed Paused Rate Hikes – The real reason behind the Fed’s decision to hold steady and why Treasury Bill yields tell us everything we need to know. Treasury Bill Arbitrage Explained – A risk-free trade that could generate billions, if only the Fed allowed it. AI’s Market Disruption – How three Chinese developers just upended the tech industry, and why DeepSeek might make Silicon Valley nervous. The U.S.’s AI Spending Problem – Did American tech giants waste billions? A closer look at AI costs, market hype, and what’s next. What To Watch Next – The yield on one- and three-month U.S. Treasury bills and what they signal for the economy. A Must-Listen For: * Investors tracking Fed policy and economic trends * Tech enthusiasts curious about AI’s financial implications * Anyone who wants a clearer understanding of economic forces shaping our world Tune in now!  Edwin T. Burton is a Professor of Economics at the University of Virginia. He specializes in Finance and his “Theory of Financial Markets” and “Behavioral Finance” classes are among the most popular ones in the Economics Department. Disclaimer: The information provided in this podcast is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not intended as financial advice and should not be relied upon as such. Always consult with a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.

In Episode 14 of Rubber Meets the Road Economics, Hunter Craig sits down with renowned economist Professor Edwin T. Burton to discuss pressing economic issues, including the looming threat of debt spirals, the Federal Reserve’s role in interest rate policies, and the impact of tariffs on U.S. manufacturing. They dive into the complexities of reserve currencies, tariffs, and the challenges facing the U.S. economy as it grapples with inflation and rising debt.    Key Topics Covered: What constitutes a debt spiral and how it could impact the U.S. The role of the U.S. dollar as a reserve currency in international trade. The economic consequences of imposing tariffs on Canada and Mexico. Predictions for the Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate decisions. The importance of balancing economic growth and fiscal responsibility. Connect With Us: Email: rubbermeetstheroadeconomicspod@gmail.com   Professor Edwin T. Burton is a seasoned economist and former Wall Street executive with decades of experience analyzing economic trends. As a professor at the University of Virginia, he bridges academic knowledge and practical expertise to shed light on complex economic topics. His optimism and deep understanding of historical and modern economics make his insights invaluable to listeners. Disclaimer: The information provided on this podcast is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not intended as financial advice and should not be relied upon as such. All opinions expressed by the hosts, guests, or participants are solely their own and do not reflect the views of any companies or organizations they may be affiliated with. We recommend consulting a qualified financial professional before making any financial decisions. Investing and financial decisions carry risks, and it is essential to do your own research.

In this episode of Rubber Meets the Road Economics, investor Hunter Craig sits down with the insightful Professor Edwin T. Burton of the University of Virginia to discuss the latest trends in the debt market, including the dramatic swings in U.S. Treasury yields. The conversation breaks down the complexities of supply and demand in economics, rising interest rates, and their implications on real estate and global markets. From debunking myths about interest rate inversion to understanding the historical context of high yields, Professor Burton delivers clarity and actionable insights for investors and enthusiasts alike. Whether you’re curious about inflation’s impact on real estate or the Fed’s potential moves, this episode equips you with the knowledge to navigate the evolving economic landscape. Topics Covered Why U.S. Treasury yields are climbing and what that means for investors How inflation and interest rates influence real estate valuations The role of supply and demand in economic fluctuations Understanding “flight to quality” during market turbulence Historical perspective: Mortgage rates in the 1980s vs. today   About Our Guest Professor Edwin T. Burton is a seasoned economist and former Wall Street executive with decades of experience analyzing economic trends. As a professor at the University of Virginia, he bridges academic knowledge and practical expertise to shed light on complex economic topics. His optimism and deep understanding of historical and modern economics make his insights invaluable to listeners.   Disclaimer: The information provided on this podcast is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not intended as financial advice and should not be relied upon as such. All opinions expressed by the hosts, guests, or participants are solely their own and do not reflect the views of any companies or organizations they may be affiliated with. We recommend consulting with a qualified financial professional before making any financial decisions. Remember, investing and financial decisions carry risks, and it is important to do your own research.

Investor Hunter Craig sits down with Professor Edwin T. Burton to unpack the latest shifts in the economic landscape. They delve into the Federal Reserve’s recent decision to lower the federal funds rate and its ripple effects on treasury yields, interest rates, and inflation. From the complexities of short-term treasury bill markets to the pressing issues surrounding the U.S. national debt and entitlement spending, this conversation illuminates the intricate connections shaping today’s economy.   Topics Discussed: •The Federal Reserve’s decision to lower interest rates: implications and motivations. •The relationship between treasury yields, repo markets, and federal funds rates. •Why short-term treasury yields are dropping while long-term yields climb. •A detailed explanation of the “flight to quality” and its impact on bond markets. •The growing national debt: Can the U.S. solve its deficit without addressing healthcare and Social Security? •Insights into the private healthcare system and the inefficiencies of the current insurance model. •Predictions for the economy, stock market, and interest rates in 2025. More About Dr. Edwin T. Burton Dr. Edwin T. Burton is a distinguished professor of economics at the University of Virginia, specializing in finance with a focus on behavioral finance and the theory of financial markets. He has held senior roles on Wall Street and has been a leading figure in public service as the longest-standing trustee of the Virginia Retirement System. Dr. Burton’s popular finance courses at UVA have educated thousands of students, and he continues to provide sought-after insights at high-profile events. His publications, including Behavioral Finance, underscore his expertise in understanding complex economic systems. Key Takeaways: •Market Dynamics: Treasury yields, repo rates, and federal funds rates are tightly interlinked, and the Federal Reserve’s influence is limited by market forces. •Flight to Quality: Investors’ concerns over rising interest rates drive demand for short-term treasuries while pushing long-term yields higher. •Debt and Deficits: Without addressing healthcare and Social Security reform, the national debt crisis will continue to worsen. •Healthcare Reform: The inefficiencies in healthcare insurance and overutilization of services contribute significantly to the ballooning national debt. •Economic Forecast: A cautious outlook for the economy, with concerns about higher interest rates and stock market performance in the near future. Further Resources: •Priceless by John Goodman – An in-depth look at the inefficiencies in the American healthcare system. Disclaimer: The information provided on this podcast is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not intended as financial advice and should not be relied upon as such. All opinions expressed by the hosts, guests, or participants are solely their own and do not reflect the views of any companies or organizations they may be affiliated with. We recommend consulting with a qualified financial professional before making any financial decisions. Remember, investing and financial decisions carry risks, and it is important to do your own research. Connect with Us: Have thoughts on today’s episode or questions about the economy? Email us at rubbermeetstheroadeconomicspod@gmail.com and subscribe to stay informed about future episodes!

Investor Hunter Craig sits down with Professor Edwin T. Burton from the University of Virginia to decode the complexities of current economic policies and trends. In this episode, they explore the Federal Reserve’s behavior as a follower of market trends, the implications of shifting political agendas, and emerging concerns about AI and Bitcoin as economic bubbles. Professor Burton provides an insightful take on what lies ahead for the U.S. economy in 2025, making this episode a must-listen for anyone trying to navigate the evolving financial landscape.   Key Topics Discussed The Federal Reserve’s expected rate cut and why it’s following the Treasury bill market How shifting political agendas from Biden to Trump could reshape key economic sectors Economic red flags: weakening indicators and policy-driven industry changes The potential bubble effect in AI and Bitcoin markets Understanding money supply, inflation, and how interest rates trigger economic movement   Financial Disclaimer The information provided on this podcast is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not intended as financial advice and should not be relied upon as such. All opinions expressed by the hosts, guests, or participants are solely their own and do not reflect the views of any companies or organizations they may be affiliated with. We recommend consulting a qualified financial professional before making any financial decisions. Remember, investing and financial decisions carry risks, and it is essential to conduct your own research.   More About Dr. Edwin T. Burton Dr. Edwin T. Burton is a distinguished professor of economics at the University of Virginia, specializing in finance with a focus on behavioral finance and the theory of financial markets. He has held senior roles on Wall Street and has been a leading figure in public service as the longest-standing trustee of the Virginia Retirement System. Dr. Burton’s popular finance courses at UVA have educated thousands of students, and he continues to provide sought-after insights at high-profile events. His publications, including Behavioral Finance, underscore his expertise in understanding complex economic systems.   Stay Connected Subscribe to The Rubber Meets the Road Economics Podcast to stay updated on the decisions shaping our economic future. Share your thoughts and join the conversation by emailing us at rubbermeetstheroadeconomicspod@gmail.com.

Investor Hunter Craig sits down with Professor Edwin T. Burton from the University of Virginia to explore the forces driving today’s economic landscape. Together, they delve into the Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate decisions, the impact of tariffs on trade and manufacturing, and the complexities of government spending and national debt. Dr. Burton’s insights shine a light on critical economic policies and their implications for businesses, communities, and everyday citizens. Key Topics Discussed The Federal Reserve’s likely 25 basis point rate cut and its impact on the economy Tariffs as a policy tool and their consequences for U.S. manufacturing Economic disparities and strategies for community revitalization The relationship between government spending, GDP, and the national deficit Financial Disclaimer The information provided on this podcast is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not intended as financial advice and should not be relied upon as such. All opinions expressed by the hosts, guests, or participants are solely their own and do not reflect the views of any companies or organizations they may be affiliated with. We recommend consulting a qualified financial professional before making any financial decisions. Remember, investing and financial decisions carry risks, and it is essential to conduct your own research. More About Dr. Edwin T. Burton Dr. Edwin T. Burton is a distinguished professor of economics at the University of Virginia, specializing in finance with a focus on behavioral finance and the theory of financial markets. He has held senior roles on Wall Street and has been a leading figure in public service as the longest-standing trustee of the Virginia Retirement System. Dr. Burton’s popular finance courses at UVA have educated thousands of students, and he continues to provide sought-after insights at high-profile events. His publications, including Behavioral Finance, underscore his expertise in understanding complex economic systems. Stay Connected Subscribe to The Rubber Meets the Road Economics podcast to gain insights into the decisions shaping our economic future.  Share your thoughts and join the conversation HERE  or by emailing us at rubbermeetstheroadeconomicspod@gmail.com.

In this episode, Hunter Craig sits down with renowned economics professor Dr. Edwin T. Burton from the University of Virginia to explore complex yet pressing issues in the U.S. economy. Together, they tackle the roots and realities of the U.S. debt crisis, the complications of the healthcare system, the limitations of Social Security, and the true impact of infrastructure spending on economic growth. Dr. Burton brings clarity to these critical topics, providing a deep dive into how economic policies shape everyday lives, as well as the constraints on solving these challenges through traditional means. From healthcare reform to Social Security alternatives, this episode digs into the policies that could change the financial future of America. Episode Highlights: Understanding the U.S. Debt Problem: Dr. Burton explains why simply cutting spending or raising taxes won’t fix the national debt, highlighting the challenges of high marginal tax rates and limited spending options. Healthcare System Issues: Discussing the inherent flaws in U.S. healthcare, Dr. Burton argues for a system driven by individual accountability and market forces, where insurance is reserved for catastrophic events rather than everyday healthcare expenses. Rethinking Social Security: With stark insights into Social Security’s financial limitations, Dr. Burton makes the case for mandatory IRAs as a sustainable alternative for Americans’ retirement, emphasizing wealth creation over entitlement payouts. Infrastructure Spending and Economic Growth: Questioning the efficacy of government infrastructure spending, Dr. Burton outlines the pitfalls of politically-driven projects and the inadequacy of growth alone to solve systemic financial issues. Quotes from Dr. Burton: “People are at the breaking point with taxes—raising them won’t solve our debt crisis.” “In the U.S., we’re spending more on healthcare than any other developed country, yet our outcomes are worse.” “Social Security is a terrible system; it creates no wealth and leaves no legacy for one’s family.” “You can’t drive the bus with economic growth alone—there’s a limit to how much can be government-driven.” “Government is not very good at providing healthcare, and for those who think it is—good luck.” Takeaways:Dr. Burton’s commentary sheds light on the foundational flaws of current U.S. economic structures, stressing the need for reform in healthcare and Social Security and cautioning against over-reliance on infrastructure spending as an economic solution. His views challenge listeners to rethink policy assumptions and envision more sustainable economic frameworks. Disclaimer:The information provided on this podcast is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not intended as financial advice and should not be relied upon as such. All opinions expressed by the hosts, guests, or participants are solely their own and do not reflect the views of any companies or organizations they may be affiliated with. We recommend that you consult with a qualified financial professional before making any financial decisions. Remember, investing and financial decisions carry risks, and it is important to do your own research. Stay Connected:If you enjoyed today’s episode, remember to subscribe and follow for more insights into the forces shaping our economy. Do you have a question that you'd like Professor Burton to answer? Send us a message, and you may hear it on an upcoming Rubber Meets the Road Economics Podcast episode.  

In this episode of The Rubber Meets the Road Economics, investor Hunter Craig sits down with Professor Edwin T. Burton from the University of Virginia to analyze the current economic landscape and the factors driving interest rates, inflation, and U.S. debt levels. They dive into the Fed’s anticipated rate adjustments, the impact of election outcomes on Treasury yields, and a masterclass in game theory as applied to economic decision-making. Professor Burton breaks down complex economic concepts into practical insights, exploring everything from real estate buying strategies to the famous three-door problem in game theory. If you're interested in understanding how economic policies might impact your finances, tune in for a grounded, no-nonsense perspective on the economy’s road ahead. Key Topics Discussed The Fed’s likely rate cut and the expected reduction in the prime rate The relationship between short-term and long-term yields and implications for mortgages The significance of the rising yield on the 10-year Treasury note and its ties to U.S. debt levels Game theory applications in real estate and market behavior Explanation of the three-door problem in probability and decision-making Financial DisclaimerThe information provided on this podcast is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not intended as financial advice and should not be relied upon as such. All opinions expressed by the hosts, guests, or participants are solely their own and do not reflect the views of any companies or organizations they may be affiliated with. We recommend consulting a qualified financial professional before making any financial decisions. Remember, investing and financial decisions carry risks, and it is essential to conduct your own research. More about Dr. Edwin T. Burton Dr. Edwin T. Burton is a distinguished professor of economics at the University of Virginia, specializing in finance, with a particular focus on behavioral finance and the theory of financial markets. His academic career began in 1969, and he has held faculty positions at Cornell University and UVA since 1988. He has also been a key figure on Wall Street, holding senior roles at Smith Barney, Rothschild Financial Services, and Interstate Johnson Lane Corporation. At UVA, Burton’s courses on finance are among the most popular in the Economics Department, where he has taught thousands of students over his career. In addition to his academic work, he has been deeply involved in public service, serving as the longest-standing trustee of the Virginia Retirement System and holding the position of chairman from 1997 to 2001. Beyond his academic and professional contributions, Dr. Burton has authored multiple books on finance, with his latest being Behavioral Finance, published in 2014. His broad expertise makes him a sought-after speaker on economic issues, and he regularly presents at high-profile events. UVA Arts & Sciences Connect With UsStay connected and never miss an episode! Subscribe to The Rubber Meets the Road Economics podcast to gain valuable insights into economic trends and decisions shaping the future.   Share your thoughts and join the conversation HERE  or by emailing us at rubbermeetstheroadeconomicspod@gmail.com.