The German government wants to attract private capital with a EUR 130 billion investment fund, but we disagree with this strategy. On our last episode for 2025, we take the latest US jobs report as another confirmation of the economy’s decline, review the IPO pop of Chinese chipmakers, and set our market forecasts for 2026.
We are at the second to the last episode of this year. This time, we observe the US dollar was on a losing streak in 2025, and we expect this to persist into the new year amid heightened uncertainty in Wall Street. Elsewhere, we look at the 60% rally of Vietnamese stocks, a looming growth forecast upgrade for the Eurozone, and a name check for the next Fed chair.
Financial markets will face greater volatility in 2026, and we think it will be more challenging for investors. We look at what’s ahead for US and Japan in this episode, as well as India’s record IPOs and China’s dominance in the export of gas-powered cars.
US consumers are getting even more squeezed, and we are not surprised. This is likely to trigger successive rate cuts from the Fed, which we discuss in this episode. We also look at Saudi Arabia targeting wealthy Asians as it opens property ownership to foreigners, and a December rate hike from the Bank of Japan.
Time stamps:
00:00 - Start
00:55 - Quick updates
02:19 - The latest on global markets
04:11 - Saudi Arabia opens real estate ownership to foreigners
09:30 - Japan's need to hike interest rates
14:45 - The reality of peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia
21:17 - Forecast for December US Fed meeting
30:10 - Our global outlook
Fears are high concerning an AI bubble, but will it really take the whole financial market down if or when it bursts? For this episode, we also explore tough economic and diplomatic woes faced by Japan, the increasing allure of China stocks, and Indonesia's plan to tax gold exports.
Time stamps:
00:00 - Start
00:55 - Quick updates
02:05 - The latest on global markets
03:01 - Japan's GDP contraction, declining exports, and diplomatic spat with China
09:32 - Popularity of the Chinese stocks
15:32 - Indonesia's plan to tax gold exports
21:07 - Bubbles in the financial markets
29:37 - Our global outlook
China's domestic retail market is proving to be fiercely unique that even global giants like Starbucks and Burger King are finding hard to navigate. To us, this shows that investors seeking to cash in on China's growth story should invest directly in Chinese companies. We also look at Japan's plan to offer tax breaks for new AI investments, the upcoming vacancies at the European Central Bank, and Scotland's return to the bond market after over 300 years.
Bill Gates changed his approach towards climate change interventions, and we are weighing in for this week's episode of Sound Economies with Mel and Peter. We also explore two contrasting growth paths: India with two tax cuts this year, and Germany with more family businesses eyeing layoffs. Finally, we look at what's fueling emerging market stocks during their best rally since 1993.
Time stamps:
00:00 - Start
00:55 - Quick updates
03:06 - The latest on global markets
04:11 - India's tax cuts
11:40 - Outlook of family businesses in Germany
19:00 - Rallying emerging markets stocks
24:46 - Bill Gates' shift on climate change intervention
32:23 - Our global outlook
All eyes are on Trump's weeklong expedition in Asia, but we find deals sealed excluding the US equally important like warmer China-India ties. This episode, we also look at the Fed's expected rate cut, explain what's keeping listing activity muted in the Philippines, and reject the IMF's nasty warning about shadow banking.
As we celebrate a year of Sound Economies with Mel & Peter, we look back at the megatrends we saw in early 2025 and evaluate how these have developed. We also identify some wildcards, such as the swift rebalancing of trade and investment flows away from the US and a worsening middle-income squeeze that has triggered protests worldwide. Finally, we take a view of the road ahead and share the trends we expect to continue into 2026.
We are seeing a stock market correction with a steeper drop for tech and AI shares versus other industries. We recommend maintaining an overweight, well-considered risk position -- we explain how in this episode. We also tackle the Philippines' missed credit rating upgrade to A status and declining ratings for old economies, plus China's five-year economic plan.
The IMF is warning about a potential stock market correction following an AI-driven surge this year, but we think it shouldn't cause panic. In this episode, we also look at the opposite tales of premiership in Japan and France in the face of fiscal issues, and a plan to extend aid to US farmers losing out from tariff-related backlash.
Time stamps:
00:00 - Start
00:55 - Quick updates
02:41 - The latest on global markets
03:26 - Japan's first female prime minister
07:01 - France changes prime minister yet again
09:08 - The parallels between France and Germany: Lack of reforms
12:27 - US tariffs and the backlash on domestic farmers
16:54 - IMF warns of potential stock market correction correlated to AI bubble
24:15 - Our global outlook
What others see as a persistent dollar weakness, we attribute to emerging market currencies gaining momentum -- and we explain why. In this episode, we also talk about the ADB's tempered outlook towards Southeast Asia, China's week-long holiday spending spree, and weaker US private sector jobs data.
Time stamps:
00:00 - Start
00:54 - Quick updates
01:41 - The latest on global markets
02:43 - ADB's latest Southeast Asia economic outlook
08:26 - China's week-long holiday
14:06 - A weaker USD or stronger emerging market currencies?
19:00 - US' private sector job market slip and government shutdown
22:30 - Our global outlook
The US stock market is likely headed towards a correction soon. We think global investors should take this opportunity to review their portfolios as many remain underinvested in Asian assets. Our anniversary episode also looks at Thailand's new stimulus plans, Trump's hefty visa fee for migrant workers, and forecasts for UK inflation.
Time Stamps:
The US Fed has delivered its first rate cut for 2025 -- smaller than what we saw needed, but affirms our view that a tighter job market is now a bigger concern than inflation. We also look at lower credit scores for Americans, Mars' planned €1B investment in Europe as US sales are projected to ease, and China's tourism push to boost GDP growth.
This episode, we dive into the strong rally of China stocks, review the French government's collapse, and explain our expectations for a jumbo rate cut from the US Fed. We also discuss megatrends concerning Europe and Asia as well as envision how major economies will look like in 2035.
Political unrest has been pushing markets on edge globally. In this episode, we look at governance issues triggering protests in Indonesia and the Philippines, observe the changing of the guard in Thailand and France, and unpack warmer ties between India and China. We also assess lower US job hiring data and explain how it will shape the Fed's rate decision.
France is on the cusp of a political crisis as Prime Minister Francois Bayrou rushes to rein in public debt, and we discuss how this makes French assets less investable. Also, we look at Fed Chair Jerome Powell opening the door for a September rate cut, express concern over Indonesia's "patriot bonds", and take some pointers from the world's best performing sovereign fund.
Global assets are getting hot, and a mega rate cut from the US Fed will send prices even higher. In this episode, we discuss if our "overweight" risk rating is worth keeping. We also keep an eye out on protectionist rice trade affecting the Philippines and Vietnam, a public effort to boost Singapore stocks, and Powell's upcoming Jackson Hole speech this weekend.
It's time for change at the US Fed: we now see a 50bp rate cut by September in response to softer economic activity and a weaker job market. In this episode, we also discuss a global oil oversupply, the US' special tax on microchips sold in China, and a new Indonesia-Peru trade deal.
India is pressured to stop its purchases of Russian oil, but we do not see this triggering a surge in prices anytime soon. We also dive deeper into Q2 GDP numbers for Indonesia and the Philippines, review resilient startups across Asia, and explain why we are keeping our no-hike stance on the US Fed despite dismal jobs data.