European equities kick off the first trading day of the new year on a positive note, with the FTSE 100 breaking past 10,000 points for the first time. U.K. house prices unexpectedly fell in December according to data from Nationwide, which is the weakest growth since April 2024. And, we discuss the outlook for the Federal Reserve in 2026, with a new chair, further questions over its independence and an AI boom all in its in-tray. See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

European markets start the final trading day of the year relatively flat, but the benchmark Stoxx 600 remains on course to notch its best annual performance since 2021. Silver prices move lower following a volatile year which has seen the precious metal rise by more than 150 per cent. Ukraine continues to deny an alleged drone attack on President Putin’s compound in the north-western Novgorod region while Russia deploys nuclear-capable ‘Oreshnik’ ICBMs to Belarus.

European markets edge into the green with the Stoxx 600 still on course to notch its best annual performance since 2021. Investors are now awaiting minutes from the FOMC later today. Russia vows to respond, following alleged Ukrainian drones targeting President Putin’s state residence in the northwestern Novgorod region, which threatens to derail peace talks between the two countries. Precious metal prices move higher with copper leading the charge, recording its highest annual rise in more than 15 years.

Precious metals are seeing profit taking this morning after a strong rally last week saw the likes of gold and silver continue their strong years. On the flip side, cyptocurrencies are higher today, after a fourth quarter rout had previously spoiled any hopes of a Santa rally. Geopolitics continues to dominate the holiday period, with Trump and Zelenskyy meeting this past weekend at the White House to hammer out the details of a potential peace deal. The two leaders praised progress in negotiations, with Zelenskyy emphasing the strides made on security guarentees, a key sticking point for his country and the Europeans. Elsewhere, Ubisoft dives after one of its games was hacked over Christmas.

European markets see meagre trading volumes this Christmas Eve but the Stoxx 600 is due to record its best annual trading performance since 2021. The U.S. GDP data comes in far hotter than expected, prompting investors to dial down expectations of a Fed rate cut while the S&P 500 sees yet another record session. BP shares surge after the British oil giant sells off its majority stake in its Castrol lubricants unit to U.S. infrastructure firm Stonepeak for $6bn.   See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

The Stoxx 600 reaches a new intra-day high with investors now anticipating the U.S. GDP print later today. Drug giant Novo Nordisk sees its shares soar as it seeks to gain U.S. approval for the pill-form version of its weight-loss drug Wegovy. President Trump has reiterated previous calls for acquiring Greenland from Denmark for national security reasons as he appoints a new envoy to the Arctic territory.  See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

European markets move lower but the Stoxx 600 is on track to notch its best year since 2021. Oil prices rise and gold hits a new record high as the U.S. navy pursues a suspected third ‘dark fleet’ tanker near the Venezuelan coast. In Miami, U.S. officials hail ‘productive’ peace talks between Russia and Ukraine but negotiations show no signs of breaking the impasse. See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

The BoJ hikes interest rates to levels not seen for 30 years, causing yields to spike to multi-decade highs. Governor Kazuo Ueda says the central bank will continue to tighten should the economy move in line with forecasts. After a 16-hour summit, European Union leaders have agreed on a €90bn loan to Ukraine after failing in negotiations to unfreeze Russian assets. Nike scores a top and bottom line beat but the results are marred by poor sales in China, dragging the sports apparel giant’s shares down. See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

BP ousts its CEO Murray Auchincloss overnight following investor frustration with net zero strategy and share under-performance. He is replaced by Woodside Petroleum’s Meg O’Neill who becomes the oil major’s fourth boss in six years. EU leaders gather in Brussels at a crucial summit to decide funding for Ukraine. And European investors await ‘Super Thursday’ with central banks’ rates decisions expected from the ECB, Riksbank, Norgesbank and BoE later today. See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

European futures pint to the green and the UK government is buoyed by the November CPI year-on-year print which came in 0.3 per cent lower than expected. The services CPI is down 0.2 per cent, beating expectations for the month. CNBC sources have learned that Open AI is in talks with Amazon over a potential tie-up worth more than $10bn following Sam Altman’s negotiations with Microsoft which allows the firm to reach across the tech sector. Crude prices edge higher after President Trump’s classification of the Maduro regime in Venezuela a foreign terrorist organisation as well as ordering of a blockade of sanctioned oil tankers. The Venezuelan government says the move is in breach of international law. See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

The A.I. stock sell-off continues with U.S. futures suggesting a day in the red. Investors now await the U.S. jobs report later today. President Trump signals that a Ukraine peace deal is ‘closer now than we have been, ever’ causing European defence stocks to tumble. However, any breakthrough on Ukrainian territorial issues remains a major sticking point. In crypto news, Bitcoin claws back some ground lost after sinking below the $86k-mark in yesterday’s session – its lowest level of the year. See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

European markets are set to open in the green following Friday’s A.I.-led stock sell-off ahead of a variety of data prints and rate decisions later in the week. Ukraine abandons demands for NATO membership with peace talks continuing in Berlin. Security is increased at Hannukah events worldwide following the massacre of 15 people by two I.S.-inspired gunmen on Bondi Beach, Sydney yesterday. See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

UK GDP data for October disappoints coming in at -0.1 per cent month on month with services output falling by 0.3 per cent. Oracle shares tumble to their lowest level since January as investors show their concern over the company’s A.I.-related splurge but global markets reached new record highs during yesterday’s session with the S&P 500 breaking through the 6,900-point mark for the first time. Disney and Open A.I. join forces in a $1bn deal with the entertainment giant licensing its characters to feature in the Sora video creation app. See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

The Fed delivers a rate cut - but the most significant dissent in six years, and division over the policy outlook, reveal a split within the central bank. Nasdaq futures falter as Oracle's data centre spend surges, sending the stock down by double-digit percentage points in extended trade - as Norway's Sovereign Wealth fund shows caution on investing in the infrastructure. Bitcoin slips, briefly dipping below $90,000 and extending a fourth quarter downturn as traders brace for a potential crypto winner.  See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Markets fully price in a 25-basis point cut at today’s Federal Reserve meeting, while deep divisions within the central bank put investors on edge about the potential for easing next year. Chinese consumer prices rise at their fastest level in two years, but factory gate prices remain in deflation territory for the 38th month in a row. Donald Trump condemns European leaders as ‘weak’ and says they ‘don’t know what to do’. See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

The Federal Reserve is deeply divided over its December rate decision as hawkish commentary around the FOMC’s two-day meeting causes jitters among investors. President Trump is set to authorise exports of Nvidia’s H200 chip to ‘approved’ customers in China with 25 per cent of sales to be paid to the U.S. government as part of the agreement. Paramount has launched a last-minute $100bn offer for Warner Brothers Discovery in an attempt to thwart Netflix’s acquisition. Paramount CEO David Ellison says a deal with Neflix could potentially destroy Hollywood.   See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Investors anticipate a Fed Christmas rate cut later this week with other central banks’ final policy meetings potentially following suit. Soaring Chinese exports to the EU push the country’s surplus beyond $1bn for the first time. Outbound shipments are up almost 6 per cent on the year with French President Emmanuel Macron threatening to slap tariffs on Beijing. Swiss lender UBS could soon benefit from the loosening of a banking regulation package which would otherwise require it to raise an additional $24bn in capital. See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Global bond yields rise amid complicated pictures in the USA and Japan. Treasurys saw yields rise on stronger U.S. jobs data, while deepening expectations of a rate hike by the BOJ sees JGB prices fall. Elsewhere, Netflix has reportedly won the battle over Warner Bros Discovery; and Meta shares rise on reports the company is planning sweeping cuts to its ‘metaverse’ unit, a former darling of CEO Mark Zuckerburg.

European markets are cautiously optimistic as weaker U.S. payrolls data overnight boosted hopes of a Fed rate cut next week. It’s a heavy day for geopolitics – French President Emmanuel Macron is in Beijing for a meeting with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping, with focus centered on expanding partnership and deepening understanding amid increased trade tensions. Elsewhere, the European Commission presented the details of its plan to use frozen Russian assets to help finance Ukraine.

Risk sentiment is reentering markets this morning after AI optimism fueled gains in the U.S. overnight. Also in recovery is Bitcoin, which is surging higher following a week of brutal loses. On the geopolitical front, Russia and the U.S. failed to reach consensus on a deal to end the war in Ukraine, despite five hours of talks in Moscow. Elsewhere, two big AI names, Anthropic and OpenAI, in focus – Reports suggest Anthropic is in early talks to launch what would be one of the largest IPOs in history next year; while OpenAI CEO Sam Altman issued a companywide ‘code red’ memo this week, warning employees over increasing competition in the chat bot space.