Opening Bell - Morning Commentary
Oil Prices Rise on Geopolitical Tensions, Dollar Begins 2026 on Weak Footing
Most of the global stock markets remained closed yesterday in observance of New Year's Day.
The UK's FTSE 100 index paused near record levels in the final stretch of 2025 on Thursday, wrapping up its strongest annual gain in 16 years in a shortened trading session.
The U.S. dollar made a feeble start to 2026 on Friday after struggling against most currencies last year, while the yen steadied near 10-month lows as traders awaited economic data this month to gauge the path of interest rates.
A narrowing interest rate differential between the U.S. and other economies has cast a shadow over the foreign exchange market, resulting in most major currencies appreciating sharply against the dollar in 2025, with the yen an exception.
Oil prices edged up on the first day of trade in 2026 after last year posting their biggest annual loss since 2020, as Ukrainian drones targeted Russian oil facilities and a U.S. blockade pressured Venezuela's exports.
Brent crude futures climbed 14 cents on Friday to $60.99 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $57.56 a barrel, up 14 cents.
South Korea's factory activity expanded in December, after two months of contraction, on a rebound in export demand, a private-sector survey showed on Friday, with manufacturers' optimism surging to a 3.5-year high.
Nifty extended its winning streak for the second straight session yesterday, adding 16 points to close at 26,146. The index opened 44 points higher but remained range-bound through most of the session, consolidating within a narrow band.
A sustained move above 26,234 could signal a breakout from the current consolidation phase and open the door for a retest of all-time highs and potentially higher levels. On the downside, the 25,900 zone is expected to act as immediate short-term support for the index.
Indian markets are poised to open moderately higher on strong global cues.
Opening Bell - Morning Commentary
The new year promises new highs for Indian markets.
Happy New Year! We hope 2026 brings you prosperity, good health, and success in all your endeavours. Thank you for including this commentary in your daily routine.
Wall Street's major indexes closed lower in the final trading session of 2025, yet still delivered substantial annual gains following a turbulent year shaped by President Donald Trump's tariff uncertainties and enthusiasm surrounding AI-focused stocks.
The Dow posted its eighth consecutive monthly gain, the longest such streak since 2017-2018.
The New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq will remain closed today in observance of New Year's Day.
For the full year, the S&P 500 climbed 16 per cent while the Nasdaq Composite surged 20 per cent, marking the third consecutive year of double-digit returns for both indexes. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 13 per cent, while India's Nifty eked out 10.5 per cent gains.
Major Asian equity markets closed on Wednesday on a mixed note amid shortened sessions, holidays, and light trading volumes. Most regional markets remain positioned to finish the year with solid gains, buoyed by the AI-driven rally.
Oil prices declined on Wednesday, recording an annual loss of nearly 20 per cent as expectations of oversupply mounted in a year marked by geopolitical conflicts, elevated tariffs, increased OPEC+ output, and sanctions on Russia, Iran, and Venezuela.
Nifty staged a strong recovery on the first day of the January derivative series, snapping a four-day losing streak with a sharp 190-point rebound to close at 26,129.
A sustained move above the previous swing high resistance at 26,234 would confirm a breakout, paving the way for a move to fresh all-time highs above 26,325 and beyond.
On the downside, 25,900 now serves as immediate support, with any dips toward this level likely to attract buying interest from positional bulls.
Indian markets are poised to open moderately higher in today's trade
Opening Bell - Morning Commentary
US Markets Drift Lower in Choppy Session; Fed Minutes Signal Caution
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed marginally lower Tuesday amid choppy trading, as gains in communication services stocks were offset by weakness in technology and financials, with the latter also dragging down the Dow.
After the previous session's decline, stocks drifted without clear direction throughout Tuesday's trading day, with major averages oscillating around the unchanged line.
Communication services shares led the S&P 500's gainers, driven by Meta Platforms' 1.1% advance. The technology giant announced its acquisition of Chinese-founded artificial intelligence start-up Manus, accelerating its integration of advanced AI capabilities across platforms including Facebook and Instagram.
Minutes from the Federal Reserve's December meeting revealed a deeply nuanced debate preceded the decision to cut interest rates, underscoring the central bank's careful assessment of economic risks. Even some policymakers who voted for the rate reduction acknowledged "the decision was finely balanced or that they could have supported keeping the target range unchanged," the minutes released Tuesday showed. With the Fed's next meeting scheduled for January 27-28, investors currently expect the central bank to hold rates steady.
Government data released Tuesday showed U.S. home prices rose in October at their slowest annual pace in over 13 years—a potential sign of improving affordability in the beleaguered housing market.
Indian rupee snapped its five-day losing streak, appreciating 18 paise to close at 89.79 against the dollar. The recovery came after the RBI reference rate, aided by year-end settlements and rebalancing flows. Gains were further supported by thin liquidity conditions and steady dollar supply from banks.
Despite the minor decline yesterday, Nifty’s close above the 50-DEMA at 25,837 keeps the short-term bullish structure intact. Metals, PSU Banks, and Auto led the gainers.
The highly volatile December series concluded yesterday with modest gains. In the stock futures segment, the January series opens with record-high open interest of 1,618 crore shares, surpassing the 1,576 crore shares recorded at the start of November 2025.
For Bank Nifty, the January series begins with sharply lower open interest of 12.47 lakh shares—the lowest level since January 2021—indicating substantial short covering.
At the start of the January series, FIIs' long-to-short ratio in index futures stands at 0.10, down from 0.18 in the previous series. This means 91% of total FII positions in index futures remain on the short side. Such a low ratio signals oversold positioning and raises the possibility of near-term short covering, which would bode well for the markets.
On the upside, Nifty needs to clear the 26,100 – 26,150 resistance zone to regain its bullish momentum and open the path for higher levels.
Indian markets are expected to open on a subdued note amid the absence of compelling global cues.
Opening Bell - Morning Commentary
Wall Street Closes Lower as Tech Retreats Ahead of Fed Minutes
US major indexes closed lower on Monday, beginning the year's final week on a subdued note as heavyweight technology stocks retreated from last week's rally that had propelled the S&P 500 to record highs.
Big-name technology companies weighed on the markets, with Nvidia and Oracle posting notable declines. Following last week's strong performance, stocks drifted lower throughout Monday's session. All major averages declined, though selling pressure remained relatively muted.
The U.S. dollar held steady on Tuesday ahead of the Federal Reserve's release of its December meeting minutes, which are expected to reveal divisions within the central bank over next year's policy trajectory.
Investors await the minutes of the Federal Reserve's December policy meeting, scheduled for release on Wednesday afternoon. The central bank reduced its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 4.25%–4.50% at that meeting. Market pricing suggests approximately an 80% probability that rates will remain unchanged at the upcoming January meeting.
Oil prices edged lower early Tuesday after climbing more than 2% in the previous session—partly pressured by spill-over from a pullback in precious metals—even as escalating Russia-Ukraine tensions kept supply-disruption fears elevated.
Precious metals retreated sharply on Monday, with silver and platinum pulling back from session highs, as investors locked in profits following recent rallies.
The Indian rupee extended its decline for a fifth consecutive session, weakening 12 paise against the dollar to close at 89.97. The move reflected a shift toward risk aversion, combined with typical month-end demand from importers and corporates amid thin market liquidity.
The Nifty's short-term trend weakened as it closed below its 20-day EMA at 25,993. However, the index continues to trade above its 50-day EMA support at 25,832 and maintains a higher-high, higher-low pattern on the daily chart, thereby preserving the broader uptrend.
A sustained break below 25726 would invalidate this bullish structure and could serve as a stop-loss reference for long positions. On the upside, the 26,100–26,150 zone is likely to act as near-term resistance.
Indian markets are likely to open muted on the monthly derivative expiry day amid a lack of strong global cues.
Opening Bell - Morning Commentary
Strong Data Drive US Markets to Records; Indian Equities Recover Modestly
US stock markets rose during the shortened holiday last week, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average both reaching record highs. Light news flow and trading volumes characterised the period, though favourable economic data and AI optimism supported positive sentiment.
Investors also processed a delayed BEA release showing that Q3 GDP expanded at a robust 4.3% annualised rate, bolstering growth confidence while moderating expectations for aggressive Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2025.
Key data releases due include weekly jobless claims, pending home sales, and minutes from the Federal Reserve's latest policy meeting.
Indian markets ended the holiday-shortened week marginally higher, snapping a three-week losing streak, though Friday's session closed lower amid profit booking and thin volumes.
Mid-caps and small-caps outperformed. The RBI's liquidity infusion and progress on India-New Zealand free trade talks supported sentiment. Markets will now track India-US trade developments, FII flows, rupee movement, crude prices, and Q3 earnings.
The Indian rupee weakened to close at 89.85 against the U.S. dollar. The fall was attributed to persistent foreign outflows and increased dollar demand from metal importers.
Despite two straight sessions of profit booking, Nifty’s short-term setup remains positive, holding above its 20-day EMA and key gap support placed near the 26,000 level.
Immediate resistance is at 26,145, followed by 26,250. On the downside, a close below 26,000 may trigger further weakness towards 25,880 and 25,770.
Corporate activity remained muted, with no major IPOs, though developments in Adani Group's cement merger remained in focus.
Indian markets are poised to open marginally higher on the back of positive global cues.
Opening Bell - Morning Commentary
S&P 500 Hits Record High as Strong GDP Data Fuels Rally; Nifty Consolidates After Sharp Rally
U.S. stocks rose on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 reaching a record close after a series of robust economic data pushed bond yields higher and lifted growth stocks.
The major averages extended their recent gains, with the S&P 500 achieving a new all-time closing high.
The Commerce Department reported that gross domestic product expanded at a 4.3% annualized rate in the third quarter—the fastest pace since Q3 2023 and well above economists' 3.3% forecast—driven by strong consumer spending.
Spot gold surged past the psychological $4,500 per ounce milestone on Wednesday for the first time, propelled by safe-haven demand and rate cut expectations.
Silver touched a fresh all-time high and surged beyond $72. The metal has gained 24% in December alone and 135% year-over-year, reflecting tight supply-demand fundamentals and robust safe-haven flows.
*Oil prices settled higher on Tuesday as investors weighed stronger-than-expected U.S. economic growth against potential supply disruptions from Venezuela and Russia.
The Indian rupee closed flat for the second consecutive session on Tuesday, as year-end rebalancing flows offset intraday weakness.
Following a sharp two-day rally, the Nifty consolidated yesterday, trading within a narrow range on the weekly expiry day.
The index maintains a positive short-term trend with a bullish higher-top, higher-bottom pattern on the daily chart.
The Nifty could extend its advance toward resistance levels at 26,202 and 26,330, while 26,000 is expected to provide near-term support.
Indian markets are poised to open moderately higher on strong global cues.
Opening Bell - Morning Commentary
AI Stocks Power Wall Street Rally as Santa Claus Rally Hopes Rise, Nifty Eyes Further Upside
U.S. equities advanced on Monday, with the S&P 500 climbing 0.88%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average adding 0.38%, and the Nasdaq Composite jumping 1.31%.
AI-related stocks—including Nvidia, Oracle, and Micron—led the broad-based rally.
The VIX - CBOE volatility index fell to its lowest level since September, signalling diminished market anxiety as investors positioned for a potential Santa Claus rally during the holiday-shortened week.
AI leader Nvidia extended its gains following a report that the company has informed Chinese clients it plans to begin shipping its second-most-advanced AI chips to China ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday in mid-February.
Spot gold reached a record high of $4,445 per ounce during early Asian trading on Tuesday, driven by expectations of rate cuts, geopolitical and economic uncertainty, and robust central bank and ETF purchases.
Silver surged alongside gold, gaining nearly 2% and reaching record highs as the precious metal has more than doubled in value during 2024. The rally reflects expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, a weakening dollar, and heightened safe-haven demand.
WTI crude oil rose 2% to $57.81 per barrel after the U.S. Coast Guard intercepted an oil tanker near Venezuela and Ukraine struck a Russian tanker in the Mediterranean—marking the first such incident.
Energy stocks advanced as geopolitical tensions heightened concerns about potential supply disruptions heading into 2025.
Copper futures held above $5.43 per pound, approaching five-month highs, supported by strong demand from China's electric-vehicle and energy-infrastructure sectors.
Asian equities rose alongside precious metals today as momentum buying continued ahead of the festive holidays, with investors awaiting an advanced reading on U.S. GDP expected later in the day.
The Nifty closed 206 points higher at 26,172 on Monday, marking its strongest close since December 5.
The index established a bullish higher-high, higher-low pattern on daily charts by breaching the key resistance level of 26,058.
Market breadth remained positive for the second consecutive session.
The index could extend its advance toward 26,202 and 26,330, with immediate support positioned at 26,000.
Indian markets are poised to rise further on the back of short covering on the weekly Nifty expiry day and positive global cues.
Opening Bell - Morning Commentary
U.S. Stocks Rally as cooler-than-expected inflation data lift sentiment; Bank of Japan rate decision to weigh on markets.
U.S. stocks rebounded on Thursday as easing inflation supported expectations for future rate cuts. The Nasdaq Composite surged 1.4% after Wednesday's tech selloff.
Micron shares rose 7% on revenue guidance of $18.70 billion for the current quarter—well above the $14.20 billion estimate—citing demand substantially exceeding supply. The results eased concerns about AI spending and lifted the semiconductor sector.
The rally followed Labour Department data showing that consumer price growth at 2.7% annually in November, lower than anticipated, boosting hopes for Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026.
Gold traded near $4,330 per ounce, approaching records, driven by U.S. sanctions on Venezuelan oil tankers and regional military build-up. Geopolitical uncertainty and mixed
Inflation signals maintained elevated safe-haven demand.
Copper futures rose to $5.37 per pound, near multi-month highs, supported by Chinese EV growth, infrastructure investment, and AI-driven US demand. Supply disruptions at major Chilean and Peruvian mines reinforced the bullish outlook, with prices up 33.6% year over year.
The Bank of Japan is expected to raise interest rates today to a three-decade high and signal readiness for further hikes, citing confidence that sustained wage growth will keep inflation near its 2% target.
Asian markets rebounded today following a tech-driven Wall Street rally, with investors anticipating the BOJ rate hike and its potential impact on currencies and bonds.
Sentiment improved after U.S. consumer price inflation unexpectedly slowed to 2.7%, although analysts cautioned that the government shutdown distorted the data and that the data should be interpreted cautiously.
Indian rupee appreciated by 14 paise to settle at 90.24 against the US dollar, marking a second straight day of gains. The currency’s renewed strength is being underpinned by steady corporate dollar inflows and easing crude oil prices, signalling an improved supply backdrop that has allowed the rupee to regain some lost ground.
Despite the recent correction, the Nifty has so far held above the 50‑DEMA at 25,767 and the previous swing low at 25,693.
A decisive close below these supports could accelerate selling pressure, whereas on the upside, the 26,000 level is likely to remain a major hurdle.
Indian markets are poised to open moderately higher on strong global cues.
Tech Selloff Deepens as Markets Await Three Central Bank Decisions
Wall Street's main indexes closed lower on Wednesday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq falling to three-week lows as AI valuation concerns pressured technology stocks.
The S&P 500 dropped 1.2%, and the Nasdaq declined 1.8%, marking four consecutive sessions of tech-led losses. Oracle plunged 5.4% on data centre concerns, while Nvidia fell 3.8%, Broadcom 4.5% amid persistent AI valuation worries.
Markets await three key events: the Bank of England's expected 25-basis-point cut to 3.75%, the ECB's anticipated rate hold at 2.15%, and the BOJ's expected rate increase to a three-decade high.
The dollar strengthened against major currencies Thursday as markets positioned for central bank decisions in Britain, Europe, and Japan.
Oil prices rebounded from four-year lows after President Trump ordered a complete blockade of sanctioned Venezuelan tankers, pushing Brent crude above $59 per barrel.
Silver surged to a record high while gold hovered near its all-time peak, reflecting aggressive market pricing of monetary debasement and macro uncertainty.
Copper futures steadied around $5.35 per pound, up 1.15% daily and 33% year-over-year, supported by strong Chinese EV demand and U.S. AI investment. Supply disruptions in Chile and Peru, plus potential U.S. tariffs on refined metals, reinforced the bullish outlook despite broader market weakness.
Nifty extended its losing streak for the third consecutive session, slipping 41 points to close at 25,818 yesterday.
Indian rupee snapped its five-day losing streak, appreciating sharply by 65 paise against the U.S. dollar. The rebound is widely attributed to suspected central bank intervention.
Nifty has reached near its 50 DEMA support, currently placed at 25765. A decisive break below the 50-DEMA could trigger additional selling pressure and deepen the ongoing correction.
On the upside, the 26,000 zone is expected to provide immediate resistance; a sustained close above it may prompt short-covering in the index.
Indian markets are poised to open near yesterday's close due to the absence of any strong global cues.
Opening Bell - Morning Commentary
US Markets Mixed as Oil Plunge - Tech Rallies While Energy Tumbles
The S&P 500 and *Dow Jones fell on Tuesday as economic concerns pressured cyclical sectors outside technology.
Oil prices plunged, with WTI crude falling to $55.61 and Brent to around $60 per barrel—the lowest since early 2021. Optimism over a potential Russia-Ukraine peace deal, expectations of oversupply, and weak Chinese data pressured energy markets.
The Nasdaq closed higher as Tesla shares jumped 3.1% to record highs near $486 after CEO Elon Musk confirmed the company is testing fully autonomous robotaxis in Austin, potentially removing safety monitors. The stock has more than doubled since March, driven by enthusiasm for autonomous driving and AI.
The volatility followed November's employment report, which showed non-farm payrolls rose 64,000 after falling 105,000 in October, beating the expected 50,000 gain. However, unemployment climbed to 4.6%, a four-year high.
Fed Futures still price in two Federal Reserve rate cuts next year, with labour data leaving expectations unchanged.
Pfizer dropped over 5% after issuing 2026 earnings guidance of $2.80 to $3.00 per share, below the $3.06 consensus, with projected revenues of $59.5 billion to $62.5 billion and $1.5 billion less from COVID-19 products.
Asian markets were mixed on Wednesday as mixed U.S. employment data failed to shift expectations for monetary policy, leaving investors awaiting further direction.
Japan's exports to the U.S. rebounded in November for the first time in eight months, suggesting a easing of tariff effects and supporting the case for continued Bank of Japan rate hikes.
The rupee weakened for a fifth straight session yesterday, depreciating 30 paise to close at a new record low. This weakness is primarily attributable to ongoing Foreign Fund Outflows (FIIs) from capital markets, coupled with persistent global risk aversion.
Nifty extended its decline for the second consecutive session yesterday, registering a sharp loss of 167 points to close at 25860.
A decisive break below the 50-DEMA level at 25760 could trigger additional selling pressure and deepen the ongoing correction. On the upside, the 26058 is likely to act as an immediate resistance level. A sustained move above 26,058 would signal a short-term bullish breakout and open the path for higher levels in the range of 26200-26300.
Indian markets are poised to open near yesterday's close and attempt a recovery from lower levels.
Opening Bell - Morning Commentary
AI Trade Fatigue Weighs on US Indices, Nifty Shows Resilience Despite Global Headwinds.
US indices closed modestly lower on Monday, pressured by large-cap tech and AI-linked stocks. The weakness followed renewed declines in Broadcom and other AI beneficiaries as investor fatigue mounted around the "AI trade."
Stocks opened higher but quickly reversed course, pulling back from early highs and hovering near unchanged levels for most of the session.
Key economic data this week includes the November jobs report and October retail sales today, followed by the November consumer price index on Thursday. These reports could reshape interest rate expectations following last Wednesday's Federal Reserve policy announcement.
Meanwhile, Japanese private-sector surveys indicated that manufacturing contraction eased in December, while services-sector growth slowed, creating headwinds for the economy as 2025 draws to a close.
Oil prices fell in early Tuesday trading, extending Monday's losses, as prospects for a Russia-Ukraine peace deal appeared to strengthen and raised expectations that sanctions could ease.
The U.S. dollar index slipped near a two-month low at the start of Asian trading today as markets awaited key economic data, including the delayed November jobs report.
The rupee weakened for a fourth consecutive day, depreciating by 31 paise to a record low, positioning it as the worst-performing Asian currency.
Nifty briefly slipped below its 20-day exponential moving average (20-DEMA) at 25,965 yesterday but recovered and closed decisively above it, indicating resilience among market participants.
A sustained move above 26,058 would signal a short-term bullish breakout and open the path for higher levels in the range of 26200-26300.
On the downside, the 25,900 level is expected to act as short-term support.
Indian markets are poised to open subdued on weak global cues.
Opening Bell - Morning Commentary
Dow Hits Record Highs While AI Doubts and Surging Jobless Claims Drag Technology Lower. Nifty eyes a close above 26000, focus to shift to mid and small stocks.
Markets diverged as the S&P 500 and Dow hit record closes following a less hawkish-than-expected Federal Reserve policy update, while the Nasdaq declined amid Oracle's disappointing results.
The Dow and Russell 2000 reached new highs, but surging jobless claims raised labour market concerns, pulling down the dollar and Treasury yields.
The Dow's surge was partly driven by Visa, which rose 6.1% on a broker upgrade, along with substantial gains in Nike, UnitedHealth, and American Express.
Oracle plunged 13%, triggering a tech selloff after massive spending and weak forecasts raised doubts about AI investment returns. The company's fiscal Q2 earnings beat estimates but revenues disappointed, highlighting uneven gains from AI technology despite widespread belief in its transformative potential.
NVIDIA and other AI stocks also declined, suggesting renewed valuation concerns.
Broadcom projected first-quarter revenue above estimates on Thursday but warned margins would compress due to a higher AI revenue mix, sending shares down 5% after hours.
Initial jobless claims jumped to 236,000 for the week ending December 6—up 44,000 from the prior week's revised 192,000, exceeding expectations.
Gold rose on Thursday to hit its highest level in more than a month after the U.S. Federal Reserve's quarter-point rate cut pushed the dollar lower, while silver surged to a record high.
Nifty snapped its three-session losing streak yesterday, gained 140 points to close at 25,898.
Over the past three sessions, Nifty has consistently tested the 50-DEMA at 24,735, establishing a short-term base near this level that should provide strong support as we advance. On the upside, 26202 remains a positional hurdle for the bulls.
Nifty eyes a decisive close above 26,000, shifting market attention toward mid and small-cap stocks for near-term opportunities.
Indian markets are poised to open higher in line with positive global cues.
Opening Bell - Morning Commentary
Major stock indexes jumped, and U.S. Treasury yields declined as the Fed delivered the expected rate cut.
The Fed lowered the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.50–3.75 per cent. While a majority of Fed officials voted for the quarter-point cut, three dissented—the first dissenting votes since September 2019.
Wall Street surged following the decision, with the S&P 500 closing just shy of a new record high as investors priced in a soft-landing scenario and steady earnings growth.
Projections released after the two-day meeting showed the median policymaker expects just one additional quarter-point cut in 2026, unchanged from September's outlook.
Investors remained hopeful about future reductions despite signals that the central bank will likely pause further cuts for now.
Markets interpreted the move as dovish but not the start of an aggressive easing cycle, tempering expectations for risk assets and rate-sensitive sectors.
The Fed announced it will begin purchasing approximately $40 billion worth of short-term Treasury bills per month starting December 12 to maintain ample reserves in the banking system. The move effectively ends quantitative tightening and marks a modest balance-sheet expansion, easing money-market liquidity and reducing the risk of future funding stress.
Silver futures hit a record high, touching $62 per troy ounce.
Most Asia-Pacific markets opened higher on Thursday following the Fed's third rate cut of the year, but failed to sustain those gains.
The Nifty extended its losing streak to three consecutive sessions, declining 81 points to close at 25,758 yesterday, near its intraday low.
On the upside, the 20-DEMA at 25,955 is expected to act as immediate resistance.
Indian markets are likely to open with a flourish on short covering but may face selling pressure at higher levels.
Opening Bell - Morning Commentary
Pre-Fed Jitters Drive Global Market Decline, Indian Markets Tumble as Rupee breaches past 90
Wall Street's main indexes fell on Monday, with most S&P 500 sectors declining and Treasury yields rising as investors awaited Wednesday's Federal Reserve policy decision.
Traders are pricing in 89% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut. While the cut is widely expected, markets will focus on the Fed's statement for signals about 2026 rate policy.
The Fed will release its policy statement, updated economic projections, and Chair Jerome Powell will hold a press conference. Investors expect 2–4 additional cuts in 2026 unless economic data shifts significantly.
Treasury selling pushed the 30-year yield to a three-month high.
This week's central bank decisions begin Tuesday with the Reserve Bank of Australia, followed by Canada, Brazil, and Switzerland, culminating in the Fed announcement on Wednesday.
The United States will allow Nvidia's H200 processors, its second-best artificial intelligence chips, to be exported to China and collect a 25% fee on such sales.
Rising Japanese government bond yields sparked fears of a partial unwind of the yen carry trade, while a stronger dollar ahead of the Fed meeting kept foreign investors cautious. Nifty dropped over 200 points yesterday in a broad-based sell-off.
The rupee breached 90 per dollar as foreign portfolio investors remained net sellers in recent sessions, fueling volatility and profit-taking in Indian equities.
The broader market suffered sharper losses.
Market breadth remained weak for a seventh straight session. The Nifty Midcap 100 fell 1.83%, while the Nifty Small Cap 100 plunged 2.61%—its steepest single-day drop since April 7, 2025, and a six-month low.
By closing below its prior swing low of 25,986, Nifty confirmed a lower bottom following a lower top, reinforcing the short-term corrective structure. A decisive break below 25,891 would likely accelerate selling and expose support zones of the 50-day exponential moving average at 25,722.
Indian markets are poised to open subdued on the back of weak global cues.
Opening Bell - Morning Commentary
US Equities Advance on Softer Inflation, Fed Cut Expectations. Indian Equities Hold Steady Following RBI Rate Cut
American equities posted modest, broad-based gains last week, supported by softer inflation data and resilient macroeconomic indicators that sustained expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts.
Investors positioned cautiously ahead of the upcoming FOMC meeting, additional inflation releases, and year-end portfolio adjustments.
Beyond Wednesday's Fed decision, central banks in Australia, Brazil, Canada, and Switzerland also meet this week, though no rate changes are expected outside the Fed.
US stock futures are trading slightly subdued after two weeks of gains that pushed the S&P 500 to record weekly closes.
Oil prices hovered at two-week highs on Monday as investors expect a Federal Reserve interest rate cut this week that will lift economic growth and energy demand while eyeing geopolitical risks that threaten oil supplies from Russia and Venezuela.
Indian stock markets delivered a flat weekly performance, closing near record highs despite mid-week volatility.
The Reserve Bank of India's 25 basis-point policy repo rate cut on December 5—its first reduction in six months—buoyed sentiment, alongside an upgraded FY26 GDP forecast to 7.3% and a lowered inflation projection.
Broader markets underperformed significantly, with the BSE Mid-Cap and Small-Cap indices declining 1.25% and 1.84% respectively last week, as foreign portfolio investors continued their selling streak.
Nifty resumed its uptrend on Friday after reclaiming levels above its near-term resistance placed near 26,100.
Immediate resistance is now seen around 26,300, followed by 26,500, while on the downside, the 25,950–26,000 band is expected to act as a crucial support zone.
U.S. Stocks Finish Choppy Trading Day Little Changed, All eyes are on the RBI's MPC decision.
Wall Street's major indices closed nearly flat on Thursday as a surprisingly strong labour market report raised doubts about the pace of future Fed rate cuts. The dollar and Treasury yields rose on the data.
Amazon.com's 1.4% decline weighed on the S&P 500, limiting gains despite investor optimism ahead of next week's expected Fed rate cut.
Initial jobless claims dropped to 191,000—the lowest since September 2022—contrasting sharply with this week's weak ADP private payrolls report.
WTI crude is headed toward a 2% weekly gain on Friday, supported by anticipated Fed rate cuts, U.S.-Venezuela tensions, and stalled Moscow peace talks.
Trading remained subdued as markets awaited fresh inflation data and the December 10 FOMC decision, where a 25-basis-point cut is widely expected.
Speculation that Kevin Hassett may replace Jerome Powell as Fed chair is driving expectations of lower long-term rates. The White House economic advisor is viewed as potentially ushering in a more dovish Fed policy, aligned with President Trump's push for aggressive rate cuts.
The Indian Rupee reversed its six-day losing streak, appreciating by 22 paise against the US Dollar to close at 89.97. This pullback is attributed mainly to suspected central bank intervention and to the unwinding of speculative long-dollar positions.
RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra will announce the MPC decision at 10 AM today, with the economists divided over the likely outcome. Some are expecting a 25 basis points cut while many believe hopes of a rate cut have faded due to strong GDP growth. We believe there is room for a 25-basis-point cut, pre-empting the FOMC rate cut on 10th December.
Nifty snapped its four-session losing streak, gaining 47 points to close at 26,033 yesterday. On the Sensex weekly derivative expiry day, bulls managed to hold a slight edge.
On the downside, the recent swing low at 25,842 remains a crucial support level, while the 26,150–26,200 zone is expected to act as strong resistance.
RBI's decision will drive the markets in the short run, primarily financial stocks.
Opening Bell - Morning Commentary
U.S. Stocks Buoyed by Rally in Bitcoin
U.S. stocks advanced on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 rising 0.2%, the Dow Jones gaining 0.4%, and the Nasdaq climbing 0.6%.
Technology stocks, led by companies like Apple, Nvidia, and Microsoft, were among the main drivers of the gains, while major corporate stalwarts such as Boeing and Intel also contributed to the S&P 500's advance.
The recovery was supported by a rebound in bitcoin and crypto-related stocks, which helped shift market sentiment away from Monday's risk-averse mood.
Bitcoin surged about 6% back above $91,000 after Monday’s plunge below $84,000, its sharpest one-day drop since March, which was driven by forced liquidations, thin liquidity and a broad risk-off move.
Rebound is helped by steadier equity markets, expectations of a Fed rate cut next week, and fresh institutional interest.
Markets now price a ~90% chance of a 25 bp Fed cut on December 10 and an imminent end to quantitative tightening, a backdrop that historically supports bitcoin and other risk assets.
Payroll processor ADP is scheduled to release its report on private sector employment in the month of November.
Economists currently expect private sector employment to edge up by 10,000 jobs in November after rising by 42,000 jobs in October.
Crude was down around 1% near $59 WTI and $63 Brent after OPEC+ confirmed it will hold output steady through Q1 2026, following this year’s supply increases, while demand signals remain uneven.
Nifty declined for the third consecutive session yesterday. The Indian Rupee extended its losing streak for a fifth session, hitting a historic low of 89.95 against the US dollar amid risk aversion and strong importer demand.
Persistent pressure from a widening trade deficit and limited central bank intervention contributed to the rupee closing 32 paise weaker at 89.88.
Nifty is now eyeing the 20-day EMA support at 25,968 as a critical level to maintain the broader uptrend.
A decisive break down below 25,968 could trigger further downside toward 25,842, while resistance on any rebound remains around the 26,300 mark.
Opening Bell - Morning Commentary
Global Markets Retreat on Rate Uncertainty and Carry Trade Concerns, Indian Markets Cautious Ahead of MPC
US stocks weakened on Monday as investors rotated out of risk assets, with US indices and the FTSE 100 closed lower despite historically supportive seasonality for December.
U.S. stocks were weighed down by a jump in Treasury yields and by economic data showing that tariffs remained a drag on the manufacturing sector, as investors looked toward the Federal Reserve's policy announcement next week.
Stocks have recently benefited from renewed optimism about the outlook for interest rates following dovish comments from leading Federal Reserve officials.
Markets have largely priced in a Fed rate cut at the conclusion of its two-day policy meeting on December 10. They are pricing in an 87% chance of a 25 basis-point cut.
Hawkish hints from the Bank of Japan about a possible rate hike have stoked worries about an unwind of yen-funded carry trades, amplifying selling across crypto and growth stocks.
Bitcoin slumped on Monday, with the world's largest cryptocurrency down about 6%, as risk aversion drove investors out of digital and other assets.
Coinbase, which ended down 4.8%, and U.S.-listed shares of Bitfarms, off 5.7%, were among the crypto stocks that showed significant weakness, as bitcoin stumbled nearly 6% and at one point dropped below $85,000. The crypto market has lost more than $1 trillion in value since hitting a record of around $4.3 trillion.
Oil prices climbed in early trade on Tuesday for a second consecutive session as market participants assessed risks stemming from Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian energy sites and mounting U.S.-Venezuela tensions.
Gold pushed back toward recent highs above $4,200/oz, and silver hit fresh records near $58 amid aggressive December rate-cut pricing and tight physical supply.
Nifty consolidated for the third straight session yesterday, ending with a marginal loss of 27 points at 26,175.
The Indian Rupee extended its losing streak to a fourth consecutive session, hitting a fresh record low against the US Dollar amid strong dollar demand and tight supply. A wider trade deficit is driving the persistent weakness, delays in the India–US trade agreement and relatively limited central bank intervention, with the rupee closing about 10 paise lower at 89.56 against the greenback.
The RBI’s MPC meets December 3–5 amid expectations of a possible 25-bps rate cut due to low inflation, though some economists anticipate no change.
The Nifty's positional trend remains bullish, with strong support at the 26000-26050 zone. On the higher side, 26300 could offer resistance on a closing basis.
Markets are expected to open on a muted note, as traders may exercise caution ahead of the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy meeting.
Opening Bell - Morning Commentary
Markets Rally Near Record Highs Amid Rate-Cut Optimism
US equity markets rallied strongly during the Thanksgiving-shortened week, with all major indices posting solid gains as risk appetite improved. Dovish remarks from several Federal Reserve officials, coupled with softer-than-expected economic data, reinforced growing expectations of a rate cut in December.
Indian equities traded resiliently last week, with benchmarks hovering near record highs amid optimism over prospective rate cuts and solid domestic growth.
India's real GDP growth surged to 8.2% in Q2 FY26—a six-quarter high that comfortably exceeded both last year's 5.6% and consensus forecasts. The upside surprise was driven by robust manufacturing and services output, firmer private consumption, and healthy investment activity, even as government capital expenditure remained relatively muted.
Near-term catalysts for our markets include the RBI policy meeting (3–5 December) and the US Federal Reserve decision (18–19 December), both likely to deliver rate cuts supportive of Indian equities.
Russian President Vladimir Putin will be in New Delhi on December 4-5, 2025, for the annual India-Russia Summit. This is his first visit to India since the Ukraine war altered global alignments and defence supply chains.
Progress on Russia-Ukraine ceasefire negotiations would benefit emerging markets broadly, while clarity on US tariff policy would provide tailwinds to Indian capex and financials.
The next resistance for the Nifty is placed near 26,500, while support for the index is positioned in the 26,000–26,050 band.
Indian markets are poised to open modestly higher on better-than-expected growth numbers and optimism over prospective rate cuts.
Opening Bell - Morning Commentary
European Markets Steady on US Thanksgiving Holiday; India's Q2 GDP Growth in Focus
European stocks edged slightly higher on Thursday while the dollar held steady, as investor confidence in a December Federal Reserve rate cut supported market sentiment and helped bitcoin stabilise above recent lows.
The holiday-shortened week led to muted trading activity across markets. Equities maintained a broadly positive tone and currencies traded with reduced volatility as investors set aside earlier concerns about an AI bubble that had unsettled markets in November.
US stock futures are flat following the Thanksgiving holiday.
The US dollar was on track for its steepest weekly decline in four months on Thursday, as investors anticipated further monetary easing amid President Donald Trump's pressure on the Fed to lower rates.
India's Q2FY26 GDP data is scheduled for release today. Economists broadly expect GDP growth to be between 7% and 8%, though nominal GDP growth—economic expansion before inflation adjustments—may have decelerated further.
Crude oil traded around $58.95, remaining steady after a mid-week rebound as traders weighed upcoming OPEC+ policy decisions against potential supply shifts stemming from Ukraine-related negotiations.
Nifty finally registered a fresh all-time high at 26,310, surpassing its previous peak of 26,277, hit on 27 September 2024 after a gap of 289 trading sessions or 14 months of consolidation.
Expectations of high GDP growth and emerging signs of earnings recovery fueled Nifty.
The narrowing of valuation premiums versus other Asian markets, coupled with robust domestic mutual fund inflows and relatively limited AI sector exposure, is rekindling investor interest in Indian equities.
The next resistance is placed near 26,500, while support for the index is positioned in the 26,000–26,050 band.
GIFT Nifty is trading marginally higher, signalling a modestly positive opening for the Nifty.