It’s no secret that AI will revolutionize the world. Elon Musk thinks computers will overtake humanity as the collective intelligence of AI exceeds that of the collective intelligence of humanity. In the short and immediate term, the truth is probably more muted and will take longer than many expect. Thus far, most companies that have tried to integrate Applied AI technology into their businesses have not been successful and have replaced relatively few employees. Ben Tasker, a recognized leader in AI education and workforce transformation, is helping thousands of employees upskill and reskill in the international workforce to become data and AI fluent.
Although multifamily is facing major headwinds with operators who took on floating rate debt combined with oversupply and unprecedented expense increases, this is not the whole story. Some multifamily investors who took on less risk and are better and smarter operators are doing quite well. Michael Pouliot, Founder of Carbon Real Estate Investments, has built a 3000-unit portfolio of 1970s and 80s workforce housing in the Southeast in great school districts with higher income, reliable tenants. Carbon Real Estate Investments is a fully integrated company that manages all operational aspects of the business in-house.
Investing in private market offerings outside of public stocks or funds can offer diversification and better returns, but these vehicles are often inaccessible to retail investors. There tend to be high minimums and restricted access to these opportunities. To provide this access, a number of investor organizations exist that pool their member’s resources to meet investor minimums and provide access. One of these organizations is Long Angle Management. Matt Shechtman, CEO at Long Angle Management, has vast experience operating and investing in private companies. Long Angle offers High Net Worth members curated investment opportunities, peer insights, education and networking.
Industrial properties were at 80% occupancy and selling at 5 cap rates pre-pandemic. Now, they’re over 90% occupied and selling at 8.5% cap rates. With interest rates most likely coming down, this represents a great opportunity to invest in industrial. Warren Buffet says never bet against America, now is a great time to invest in industrial properties. Judd Dunning, President of DWG Capital Partners, is raising a fund to acquire single tenant Sale Lease Backs from profitable companies with strong balance sheets and excellent credit. Conservative asset level underwriting, plus the diversification of a fund make this a safe investment with long-term leases and predictable returns.
Buying at a discount is the most dependable way to make money. Suburban office is one of the few examples left where you can still find considerable value. In some markets, you can buy these properties for as little as $10/ft where it costs $200/ft to build. What’s more, you don’t have to find off-market deals, they’re listed publicly on LoopNet, Crexi, and other listing sites. As workers have moved to the suburbs and left downtown districts, they’ve chosen to work closer to home. As a result, many suburban office buildings are at 90% occupancy. Ken Naim, founder of Beacon One Capital, has acquired cash-flowing suburban office properties and also buys industrial buildings in smaller markets.
Investing in NNN fast food franchises and limited-service hotel Real Estate is a great way to profit from steady operating businesses. Joe Tagliente is Managing Partner of Tage Capital Partners, a firm founded in 1970 with a single restaurant by family patriarch, Joseph P. Tagliente. Tage Capital has grown to become a leading hospitality company in New England. Today, Tage Capital is one of the largest privately held, hospitality real estate investment groups in the United States with net-leased investments in quick service restaurants, casual dining restaurants, and hotels.
Despite ample sentiment to the contrary, we may not be headed into a recession any time soon according to at least one well known, respected economist. In fact, we’re just four years past the pandemic, and we’re seeing steady, conservative growth. As far as AI disruption, and potential unemployment that may result, this may occur slower than many people think. Peter Linneman, Principal of Linneman Associates, is a prolific multi-decade investor and founder of Wharton's Real Estate Department and the Zell-Lurie Real Estate Center. Peter Is bullish on the U.S. economy and it’s growth prospects for near future.
One way to generate large, short-term profits in Real Estate is flipping houses. There are many methods to finding great deals, and the money to acquire these properties is readily available when the deals make sense. You can find houses via auctions, wholesalers, or tried and true direct marketing efforts like flyers, Direct Mail, driving neighborhoods, even knocking on doors. Dan Cantillana, or Dan Can, is a successful insurance broker in Spokane, Washington who has expanded into flipping 30-40 houses per year over the past several years.
Nothing has caused more loss of principal in Real Estate than too much debt. Leverage works great in an upward trending market, but it cuts the other way in a downturn. Joel Friedland, Principal of BRIT properties, has been buying infill industrial properties with all cash since learning the hard way during the 2008-09 financial crises. Joel and his investors are seeking conservative investments with the primary goal of capital preservation. He buys highly sought-after properties that appeal to both owner-users and tenants. Joel specializes in industrial properties in Chicago that deliver 7% unleveraged returns.
AI will change the world even more than the internet, with profound implications for most aspects of society, including massive wealth creation. It will impact many sectors of commerce, including Real Estate. Amongst other implications, AI is creating an insatiable demand for Data Centers and a scramble for computing power. Peter Lewis, Chairman and Founder of Wharton Equity Partners, has over 35 years of experience as a real estate owner, developer, and operator, and is now merging with Lighthouse, a turnkey developer of Data Centers. The founders of Lighthouse formerly led Midwest and Western data center development for Amazon Web Services.
For fix and flip entrepreneurs of single-family homes, it’s hard to get financing from traditional lenders. This lack of access to capital creates a market for private lenders who have the flexibility and access to capital. It’s a win-win for borrowers and lenders. Borrowers get capital to fund their businesses; lenders make a healthy return for making these kinds of loans. Investors who invest in hard money funds also do well, earning sometimes as high as high teen returns. Matt Medrano, Co-founder and CRO of Dynamo Capital, has a growing fund of hard money loans, mostly in Wichita, and is expanding to other Midwest cities.
Although cracks are starting to appear in various commercial real estate asset classes, prices have still not come down enough to be investible. Prices have come down, but they’ve come down off record highs and lenders are still conducting workouts with sponsors. If we continue to see significant job losses, and recession ensues, prices may eventually come down enough to make sense for cash-flow investors. Jeremy Roll, a full-time passive investor, left his steady corporate job in 2007 and has lived 100% off the cash flow ever since. Jeremy has been in over 250 passive investments.
Despite its initial trajectory, ecommerce has plateaued at 16% of total retail sales. Concurrently, the cost of land, borrowing, and construction has made it prohibitive to build new retail centers. As a result, occupancy levels at existing properties are in the mid-high 90’s, and sometimes even 100%. There’s a huge demand for space from restaurants, beauty salons, yoga and pilates studios, gyms, massage clinics, plus other medical providers like dentists and chiropractors. Cyndi Peach, Managing Partner of Nexphase Venture Partners, has had successful exits of strip centers over the past decade and continues to build her portfolio.
When it comes to stable tenants and predictable cash flow, it’s hard to find a better asset class then Medical Office. As the population ages and people live longer, the demand for medical care will continue to flourish. Plus, technology will never replace the human body. Another commercial real estate class with predictable cash flow is Multifamily. Multifamily is attractive because of looming loan maturities and resulting distress. Ben Reinberg, CEO of Alliance Consolidated Group of Companies, has specialized in Medical Office for the last twenty years and is now capitalizing on Multifamily to leverage current buying opportunities to acquire great properties for less than replacement costs.
Although Multifamily is facing challenges in sunbelt markets, and loan maturities are piling up, long-term fundamentals remain strong. Rents are holding, occupancy levels are in the low 90’s%, and collections are solid. There have been concessions because of excess supply, but even these are gradually starting to contract. Joe Fairless, Co-founder and General Partner of Ashcroft Capital, owns over 14,000 units in sunbelt markets. Joe is prioritizing Net Operating Income of his current portfolio and is selectively looking to acquire additional A to B+ properties with a large discount to replacement cost.
As investors seek alternatives to the stock market, as ETFs make it harder to outpace the market, as awareness for private investments increases, allocations are increasing to non-traditional assets. Over the past decade, and even more so recently, investors have invested more money into privately held Real Estate, Private Credit, and Private Equity. With the right investment strategies, these vehicles offer predictable cash flow with conservative risk. Brad Johnson, Founder and Managing Partner of Evergreen Capital, helps clients preserve and grow capital by investing in proven, cash-flowing alternative investments.
As investors have become frustrated over the complexity, the legacy issues, and opacity of funds, many have gravitated to investing in single asset deals. Single assets are easier to underwrite, require less due diligence, and great deals are starting to emerge with distress in the market. Mike Zlotnik, CEO of TF Management Group, is offering investors opportunities to invest in single asset deals in Industrial, Outdoor Retail, and select Multifamily. Mike also manages conservative debt funds that he’s run for several years.
Although there’s been resistance to investing in office since the pandemic, back-to-office trends are prevailing as more employers are requiring employees to come back in-person at least three days per week. Along with this trend and no new supply, quality office space is seeing resurgent demand, especially higher quality space in great locations. Investors are now seeing opportunities to acquire these properties for as little as 10% of previous sale prices with strong in-place cash flow and high upside. Nate Melchior, Principal at Dunton Commercial, is actively pursuing office acquisitions in the Denver market. Dunton Commercial currently owns and manages retail and office properties in Colorado.
One of the highest in-demand asset classes is Small Bay Industrial. In the last several years, most of the new industrial construction has been large warehouses to address the growth of e-commerce. Small Bay, on the other hand, has seen very little new construction since 2008/09. Municipalities generally favor new housing. As a result, there’s limited inventory available for tenants, and therefor high occupancy rates across these properties. David Hansel, Founder and Managing Partner at Lucern Capital Partners, started out in multifamily, but now specializes in Small Bay Industrial because of the great attributes of this asset class.
After a forty-year honeymoon of plummeting interest rates, it’s going to require a lot more operational skill moving forward to generate positive returns in commercial real estate. Although we’re going to see increased distress over the next several quarters, operational expertise will still be required to achieve desired returns. This is especially true in multifamily because of the daily demands of the asset class. Mark Hamilton, founder of Hamilton Zanze, manages over 25,000 residential units, making him one of the top fifty multifamily operators in the country. Mark has achieved both income and growth over the past several decades for his investors while utilizing fixed rate debt and conservate underwriting.