Recording date: 29th October 2025
Nickel prices have stayed steady within a narrow range of $15,000 to $15,500 per ton but are poised for upward movement as ore supply from the Philippines tightens through the rainy season in late 2025 and early 2026. At the same time, electric vehicle (EV) demand is robust, with global sales up 24% over the first nine months of 2025. This growth is especially pronounced in China, which led with 32%, while Europe and North America posted 24% and 11% increases, respectively. High-nickel battery chemistries are seeing increased use, fueling further nickel demand and pushing North American requirements alone higher by 300,000 to 400,000 tons.
In response to strategic resource needs, G7 nations are launching a Critical Minerals Initiative to collectively finance and accelerate critical mineral projects, particularly in resource-rich countries like Canada and Australia. In Canada, the Crawford project by Canada Nickel stands out as a major economic force, expected to contribute $70 billion to GDP and $15 billion in taxes over 40 years. The project is also notable for carbon sequestration technology capable of storing up to 15 million tons of CO2 annually. This opens the potential to create zero-carbon industrial hubs, producing hydrogen, fertilizers, and other products that are vital for the transition to a low-carbon economy.
The national focus on critical minerals is crystallizing through Canada’s forthcoming National Priority Projects list, with selection based on economic scale, Indigenous participation, near-term timelines, and decarbonization impact. Canada Nickel’s Crawford is well positioned, while new government-backed initiatives and industry partnerships hint at significant support for similar ventures. Meanwhile, investors are rotating capital from precious metals into battery metals, seeking exposure to growth driven by the EV sector and critical minerals demand. This backdrop underscores the strategic importance of projects like Crawford to economic growth, clean industry, and advancing a secure, decarbonized supply chain for the future.
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Recording date: 16th October 2025
The global copper market faces an unprecedented supply crisis that savvy investors cannot afford to ignore. With prices already pushing $5 per pound and heading toward $12,000 per tonne by end-2025, the red metal has become the most critical commodity play of this decade. Recent catastrophic failures at major mines have removed over 500,000 tonnes from near-term production—equivalent to an entire year's demand growth—while recovery timelines stretch into 2027. The Grasberg mud rush in Indonesia and El Teniente seismic events in Chile aren't just temporary setbacks; they represent the increasing fragility of global copper supply as miners push deeper underground into more complex geology.
Meanwhile, demand acceleration shows no signs of slowing. Artificial intelligence data centers, electric vehicle adoption, and renewable energy infrastructure are creating copper consumption patterns that dwarf traditional industrial use. Each hyperscale AI facility requires as much copper as a small town's electrical grid, while EVs need four times the copper of conventional vehicles. The math is unforgiving: the world needs the equivalent of a new major copper mine every year just to maintain 2% demand growth, yet the industry hasn't discovered a tier-one deposit in over a decade.
Chile's Codelco, the world's largest copper producer, exemplifies the industry's struggles. Starved of capital by government raids on its balance sheet, the company has shifted from growth to mere "optimization"—a euphemism for stagnation. With development timelines now stretching beyond 16 years and capital costs exceeding $35,000 per tonne of installed capacity, new supply cannot materialize quickly enough to prevent a structural deficit. For investors, this creates a generational opportunity. Whether through major miners, junior explorers, or physical copper exposure, the supply-demand fundamentals point to sustained price appreciation that could define the next decade of commodity investing.
00:00 - Introduction to Copper Market Trends
02:48 - Copper Price Dynamics and Forecasts
05:43 - Supply Disruptions and Their Impact
08:35 - Copper Demand Growth and Future Needs
11:24 - Challenges in Chile's Copper Production
14:44 - Block Caving Techniques and Challenges
17:23 - Future Production Plans and Market Outlook
20:21 - Investment Opportunities in Copper Projects
23:20 - Exploration Updates and Company Highlights
29:05 - Conclusion and Future Prospects
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Recording date: 7th October 2025
The critical minerals sector is experiencing a fundamental transformation as direct government equity participation drives substantial stock revaluations while nickel prices test multi-month trading range resistance. Mark Selby, CEO of Canada Nickel, recently outlined how these converging factors represent a potential inflection point for the industry.
Nickel prices have been range-bound between $15,000 and $15,500 per tonne for three to four months but are now pushing against resistance levels, with brief breakouts to $15,600. Ore prices increased $0.50 to $1.00 per tonne during China's recent October holiday, providing price support as markets return to full operation. Selby stated that "this fall is when we're going to see the first move," suggesting the breakout may be imminent.
Indonesian supply management is emerging as a critical factor for market balance. Government representatives at recent International Nickel Study Group meetings outlined plans for more aggressive supply discipline through year-end and into 2026. Key policy changes include reducing mining licences from three-year to one-year terms and implementing forestry crackdowns, with officials pointing to tightness expected in the first quarter of 2026. Indonesia now controls two-thirds of global nickel supply, making these policy shifts materially significant.
Government funding is creating dramatic stock revaluations. The US government has taken equity stakes in Lithium Americas and Trilogy Metals, with companies receiving support experiencing 2-10x stock appreciation. Lithium Americas has doubled in a month, MP Materials has tripled in three months, and The Metals Company is up tenfold since December. Canada is developing similar programmes, with priority project lists identifying large-scale, advanced-stage projects for direct government support.
Capital rotation from precious metals into critical minerals is accelerating as gold approaches $4,000 per ounce. Investors are positioning ahead of government funding announcements rather than chasing already-revalued stocks, creating opportunities in underappreciated projects meeting strategic criteria for government support.
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Recording date: 24th September 2025
The global nickel market is experiencing a critical inflection point as multiple supply and demand dynamics converge to potentially end the prolonged period of range-bound pricing between $15,000-$15,800 per ton that has persisted since April 2025.
Indonesia's strategic shift represents the most significant development in nickel markets. After a decade of flooding global markets with supply, the country now controls more nickel market share than OPEC commands in oil markets. This dominant position creates powerful economic incentives for price support rather than suppression. With nickel prices returning to $18,000-$20,000 per ton levels, Indonesia could generate an additional $4,000 per ton revenue that would completely eliminate the country's current account deficit.
Seasonal production patterns are amplifying supply pressures. Philippine nickel output, which produces nearly half its annual volume during the third quarter, will drop by 50% entering Q4. Simultaneously, Indonesia's regulatory crackdowns have removed 190 companies from operations, including 36 nickel producers, while transitioning mining licenses from three-year to one-year terms.
Robust electric vehicle adoption continues supporting fundamental demand. Global EV sales increased 15% year-over-year in August 2025, with Europe demonstrating particularly strong 30% growth despite previous pessimistic forecasts. The shift toward hybrid vehicles, now targeting 50% of manufacturer production versus 20% previously, maintains nickel consumption through 60% nickel battery chemistry requirements.
Nickel deployment in batteries has grown 13% annually, with monthly tracking indicating consistent demand increases across both full electric and hybrid vehicle applications. This growth trajectory supports long-term demand fundamentals even as lithium iron phosphate batteries gain market share in certain applications.
Canadian government policy has evolved dramatically in response to US trade tensions, creating unprecedented federal-provincial cooperation for critical mineral development. National priority project designation provides fast-track approval processes and enhanced funding access, with experienced financial executives appointed to key implementation roles. This framework specifically targets projects with scale, feasible development timelines, and Indigenous community support.
The convergence of supply discipline, sustained demand growth, and supportive government policies suggests the nickel sector may be emerging from years of investor skepticism toward a more balanced market environment capable of supporting sustainable higher pricing levels.
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Recording date: 12 May 2025
The global nickel market is experiencing a fundamental shift that presents compelling investment opportunities as supply constraints tighten and governments recognize the metal's strategic importance beyond electric vehicle applications. Current market dynamics suggest investors should consider exposure to this critical commodity as geopolitical factors and Indonesian market control reshape the industry landscape.
Indonesia has emerged as the dominant force in global nickel supply, with the metal now representing the country's largest export sector. The government has demonstrated both capability and willingness to influence prices through sophisticated mechanisms, including environmental enforcement and RKAB licensing quotas. Recent actions illustrate this control, with Indonesia halting production at four projects in Raja Ampat affecting 1-2% of global supply. Despite nickel prices remaining in the $15,000-$15,800 range, ore prices have reached two-year highs, creating margin pressure that forced even industry leader Tsingshan to announce production cuts.
Supply chain vulnerabilities are becoming increasingly apparent across the value chain. Ore imports from the Philippines are running significantly ahead of last year's levels, preventing typical inventory buildup before the rainy season. Grade deterioration in medium and high-grade deposits affects nickel pig iron production efficiency, while weather disruptions in key Indonesian regions create additional pressure points. Industry experts predict prices reaching $16,500 by late summer, with potential for $18,000-$20,000 per tonne by year-end.
The strategic importance of nickel has escalated beyond electric vehicles to national security priorities. Recent US negotiations with China over rare earth access highlight Western dependence on Chinese-controlled supply chains, reinforcing government support for domestic alternatives. Canada has placed nickel projects on its Priority Projects list, backed by $500 million in critical mineral processing funds.
Exploration successes demonstrate significant value creation potential. Talon Metals delivered exceptional drill results with 34.9 meters grading 14.86% nickel and 15.37% copper, while Canada Nickel defined over one billion tonnes containing 2+ million tonnes of nickel at Mann West. These discoveries represent rare new sources outside Indonesia, highlighting supply scarcity.
The convergence of Indonesian supply control, geopolitical priorities, and structural constraints creates an attractive investment environment for nickel exposure before supply limitations drive substantial price appreciation.
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Recording date: 5th August 2025
The global nickel market stands at a critical juncture as prices hover around $15,000 per tonne, positioned at the lower end of the established $15,000-$15,800 trading range. Despite recent inventory increases of 6,000 tonnes on the London Metal Exchange, underlying market fundamentals suggest potential upward momentum driven by strategic supply management and policy shifts across key producing regions.
Indonesia's dominance as the world's primary nickel supplier continues to shape global pricing dynamics, with the country effectively acting as "an OPEC of one country" for nickel markets. Indonesian producers have successfully pushed ore prices up approximately $3,000 per tonne, creating significant cost pressures throughout the supply chain. However, this aggressive pricing strategy, facilitated by Chinese company Tsingshan's high-output, low-price approach to squeeze competitors, appears to be reaching sustainability limits as market participants recognize the need for broader industry profitability.
China's implementation of "involution" policies - designed to reduce excess industrial capacity and improve profitability - represents a fundamental shift in industrial strategy with direct implications for nickel demand. These policies specifically target steel production, including stainless steel manufacturing, where overcapacity has created deflationary pressure. Early signs of this policy impact are already visible, with recent upticks in both nickel pig iron and Chinese stainless steel prices indicating genuine demand recovery rather than speculative positioning.
The next few weeks prove crucial for market direction, as all major mines operate at near-full capacity while Chinese efforts to pressure ore prices continue. The seasonal element becomes particularly significant with anticipated Philippine mine shutdowns during winter months, potentially creating substantial supply constraints during the fourth quarter.
Government support for critical mineral projects has accelerated dramatically, exemplified by MP Materials' Department of Defense contracts and Torngat Metals' $100+ million Canadian government financing. This shift addresses supply chain security concerns, particularly given Chinese control of approximately 80% of global nickel processing capacity.
The convergence of these factors - Indonesian supply management, Chinese capacity rationalization, seasonal constraints, and government intervention - creates conditions supporting price recovery toward the $18,000-$20,000 range by year-end.
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Recording date: 21 May 2025
The nickel market is presenting compelling investment opportunities as supply-side constraints converge with accelerating demand from both traditional and emerging applications. Recent market developments indicate a sector positioned for potential price appreciation driven by geopolitical supply concentration and robust consumption growth.
Nickel prices have stabilized in the $15,000-$15,800 per tonne range following recent volatility, with exchange inventories declining despite earlier surplus concerns. This inventory drawdown suggests underlying consumption is absorbing available supply more effectively than anticipated, indicating a market transitioning toward supply-demand balance.
Indonesia's dominance of approximately two-thirds of global nickel supply provides significant price leverage through regulatory control mechanisms. The country operates mining quotas through the RKAB licensing system and maintains discretionary enforcement of environmental regulations, creating multiple tools for supply management. Industry experts note that Indonesia has clear economic incentives to push prices higher, as the country generates more revenue at $18,000 per tonne than at $15,000.
Demand fundamentals are exceeding analyst expectations across key sectors. Chinese 300-series stainless steel production, representing up to half of global nickel consumption, has surged 12% year-over-year through early 2025. Electric vehicle battery applications are contributing additional growth of 10-15% annually, supporting increasing nickel intensity in the global economy.
Western governments are responding to supply chain security concerns with enhanced support for domestic nickel projects. The Trump administration has fast-tracked permitting for critical mineral projects, while Canadian funding programs are addressing traditional capital constraints. Automotive manufacturers specifically seek "clean green nickel" for EV production, creating premium opportunities for sustainably produced Western supply.
Recent exploration successes, including Talon Metals' exceptional drill results showing 12% nickel and 14% copper grades, demonstrate continued discovery potential in established mining districts. Combined with innovative financing structures involving government and strategic capital, these developments suggest Western nickel projects are approaching a development inflection point that could reduce global dependence on Indonesian supply while capturing premium pricing for sustainable production methods.
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Recording date: 22nd April 2025
Nickel prices have demonstrated remarkable recovery in recent months, rebounding from $14,000 to approximately $15,750 per ton following Trump's reversal of the Liberation Day tariffs. This represents a recovery of about two-thirds of the $2,800 per ton loss experienced when tariffs were initially announced.
The market's resilience is supported by multiple factors on both the supply and demand sides. On the supply front, Indonesian production slowed during the Eid al-Fitr holiday, while domestic smelters were already operating with low inventory levels. Although the Philippine rainy season is ending, the supply chain will take time to replenish, creating temporary constraints that support pricing. The benchmark 1.5% Philippine ore has reached its highest price level since October 2023.
Demand remains robust, particularly from China's stainless steel sector, which has grown at double-digit rates through the early part of the year—exceeding most analyst expectations. This strong performance, combined with anticipated growth in the electric vehicle sector, could potentially drive nickel prices toward $20,000 per ton by year-end, according to industry executive Mark Selby.
Nickel's critical mineral status positions it favorably in the current geopolitical environment. With countries seeking to secure essential material supply chains amid US-China tensions, nickel producers outside the Chinese-Indonesian supply network stand to benefit from increased government support and funding.
Recent industry developments further reinforce investment interest in the sector. The Metals Company has seen its stock price triple after announcing plans to apply for mining permits under existing US legislation. Turkish industrialist Robert Yildirim announced plans to invest approximately $2 billion in nickel, while companies like Ardea Resources, First Atlantic Nickel, and Talon Metals reported encouraging drilling results.
The convergence of different nickel product prices indicates a maturing market where products are increasingly valued based on their nickel content rather than product-specific factors, creating a more stable pricing environment for investors.
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Recording date: 8th April 2025
Recent trade tensions have sent ripples through the metals market, with nickel prices retreating to 2020 levels around $14,000 per ton. Despite this 15% decline from recent highs, nickel has demonstrated greater resilience than other base metals such as copper, which has experienced losses exceeding 20%. This relative outperformance hints at nickel's stronger fundamental position in today's complex commodity landscape.
The market is approaching what industry experts call the "grand convergence," where production costs across different technologies are aligning. This convergence is creating a more stable cost floor for nickel, limiting potential downside even amid trade uncertainties. Current prices have already fallen well into the cost curve, suggesting limited additional downward pressure as production economics begin to constrain supply growth.
Indonesia's dominance in global nickel production continues to shape market dynamics. Environmental concerns surrounding "blood nickel" and challenging production conditions create persistent supply constraints despite Indonesia's expansion plans. Seasonal factors in key production regions like the Philippines also contribute to cyclical supply tightness, with evidence suggesting that structural supply limitations may outweigh these seasonal patterns going forward.
Government support for critical minerals has accelerated dramatically, creating unprecedented funding opportunities for strategically positioned nickel projects. As one industry leader noted, tariff tensions have paradoxically reinforced commitments to domestic supply chain development, with funding "going to show up much more vigorously and much more quickly than it had before." This support extends across political lines, with projects receiving endorsements from both governing and opposition parties in various jurisdictions.
Companies with the flexibility to sell into multiple markets hold significant advantages in navigating current trade disruptions. Those positioned outside the U.S. market may actually benefit from redirected supply chains and heightened domestic support. As revealed in the transcript, for development-stage projects, this environment represents "some short-term pain, but perversely super helpful for any of us in the critical mineral space who can sell our stuff anywhere in the world outside the United States."
Recent project developments across the sector illustrate both progress and challenges in expanding supply. New discoveries like Molga Tank in Australia and advanced projects like Kabanga in Tanzania represent significant nickel resources, but complex development requirements create barriers to rapid production growth. Companies have increasingly recognized that simpler development plans focused on mining rather than complex processing facilities offer more practical paths forward.
For investors, the nickel market presents an opportunity to position for longer-term structural trends despite near-term volatility. The demonstrated challenges in developing cost-effective new supply, combined with accelerating demand from energy transition applications, create a compelling fundamental case. Companies with advanced projects receiving strategic government support offer particularly interesting exposure to this critical mineral. While current market turbulence requires patience, the strategic importance of nickel continues to grow as global supply chains adapt to new trade realities.
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Recording date: 28th March 2025
Nickel prices have rebounded to $16,500 per tonne ($7.50/lb), marking a 10% gain since the start of 2025. This recovery is primarily driven by significant price increases in Indonesian and Philippine ore, with Indonesian ore prices rising by $1.50-$2 per tonne (3-6%) in the latest week.
Industry experts consider the Indonesian ore price the key indicator for nickel's market direction this year. The price increases are cascading through the entire supply chain, affecting ore, nickel pig iron (NPI), and stainless steel prices, with several price points reaching levels only briefly seen in late 2024.
On the corporate front, Canada Nickel Company has established a RoyaltyCo holding a 1% royalty on most of its land package, enabling it to raise $8 million while maintaining 62% ownership. The company expects to publish six additional resource estimates by mid-year, potentially creating a resource endowment comparable to the Sudbury basin.
Other significant developments include Centaurus receiving a construction permit for its Brazilian nickel project, positioning it among the few projects that could begin production before 2030. EV Nickel reported promising drilling results from its Gemini North target, with one hole showing 280 meters of mineralization at 0.32% nickel. First Atlantic Nickel announced results from its Newfoundland project and a partnership with the Colorado School of Mines to investigate natural hydrogen potential.
Meanwhile, the London Metal Exchange was recently fined £9.2 million ($11.9 million) for its handling of the 2022 nickel trading crisis, which resulted in $12 billion in canceled trades when prices spiked to nearly $100,000 per tonne.
Government policies are increasingly supporting critical minerals projects, particularly in Canada where the Ontario government announced a $500 million fund for critical minerals processing. This shifting landscape, coupled with tariff implementations and growing emphasis on secure supply chains, is creating potentially favorable conditions for nickel investments, especially for projects in stable jurisdictions with lower carbon footprints.
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Recording date: 14th March 2025
Elbows Up, Canada & The Nickel Market
What a difference 2 weeks makes – up $2,200 a tonne since we last spoke breaking out of range $15,000-$15,800 range that we’ve been in the last 3 months.
Multiple reports of ore availability being tighter than expected this week – but first week since Chinese New Year didn’t see an increase in Indonesia ore price – but Indonesia talking about increasing royalty rates from 10% to 14-18% which will flow through to costs. Though, Philippine ore prices were up $1/t and we continue to see NPI prices/stainless prices tick up each week in China which is supportive to nickel prices. This royalty rate change should underscore point I’ve been making that Indonesia wants to ensure it captures additional value from its finite ore resources.
LME nickel inventories continue to move higher as refining capacity additions in Indonesia and China are allowing any surplus to be converted into LME deliverable units – this will ensure that final stage of “Great Compression” is completed.
While have seen significant increases in LME stocks – need to remember still low on weeks of inventory basis and still a fraction of reported surpluses over last 3 years
In sharp contrast to year ago, EV sales looking robust – YTD February up 30% globally – China up 35%, Europe up 20% (with BEV up 29% and hybrid up 2%). Is crazy how much negative hype last year when was just impact of Germany cancelling incentives which saw big surge in sales in advance in late 2023. These numbers are now getting the benefit of low base in Europe – underlying numbers still growing at 20-25% !
Some interesting company news
Talon Metals announced earn in by Lundin minerals to its Michigan properties where they’ve seen some excellent results. Land package they picked up about 2 years ago. Great move by both sides – keeps Talon from having to dilute its main property to explore and Lundin is running out of ore at its Eagle mill which is short distance away from this land package.
Canada Nickel released more exploration results from the “Three Giants” – Mann West, Reid, and Midlothian – each have bigger geophysical footprint than Crawford. Highest grades to date at Mann West, continued solid results at Reid, and good longer higher-grade intervals at Midlothian.
Chalice Resources had big news for PDAC – announced updated flowsheet – got rid of hydromet and making concentrates. Nickel concentrate hydromet particularly for complex concentrates hard. Concentrates great – but will run into the “oligopoly’ if producing a Ni-Cu-PGM concentrate that has to go to one of the smelters. Doesn’t produce much nickel is really a PGM with Ni, Cu byproducts at this point.
First Atlantic Nickel – awaruite property in Newfoundland – finally released some DTR results which were long overdue. Second hole yielded similar DTR grades to FPX – leading awaruite deposit. Explanation for long delay also in this press release as DTR results from first hole they drilled had much lower grades than FPX. Ultramafic deposits typically have variability in mineralization and most importantly for these awaruite deposits need to look at grain size as FPX work showed change in recoverability based on grain size. So interesting result, but a lot more drilling and mineralogy work to go.
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Recording date: 18th February 2025
The copper market has seen moderate price strengthening in early 2025, with prices reaching $4.20-$4.30/lb despite LME inventory increases in late 2024. Major producers including BHP, Rio Tinto, Freeport, and Capstone are taking a conservative approach, focusing on brownfield expansions rather than new greenfield developments due to capital intensity concerns.
The sector is witnessing a clear dichotomy in the exploration space. Companies with large-scale potential, strong news flow, and reliable access to capital are gaining market favor, while junior explorers with limited resources or challenging deposits struggle to maintain momentum. Notable performers include ATEX Resources, which has grown to a $600M market cap with five active drill rigs, and NGEx Minerals, reaching a $2.5B valuation with a 75% share price increase over the past year.
Mid-tier producer Capstone Copper exemplifies the sector's growth potential, projecting an increase from 184kt Cu in 2024 to 220-255kt in 2025. The company aims to reach 400ktpa longer-term through its Santo Domingo project, though financing remains challenging due to capital expenditure concerns.
Several emerging players are making significant strides. Element 29 reported impressive results in Peru with a kilometer-long intersection of 0.39% copper. Power Nickel has seen its share price increase sixfold, while Marimaca Copper plans to expand production from 50ktpa to 75ktpa, supported by strategic investors including Assore Holdings and Mitsubishi.
The supply landscape faces significant challenges, including major miners' reluctance to invest in large-scale greenfield projects. This hesitancy is evident in developments like Rio Tinto's Winu project, which targets modest production of 33ktpa copper and 80koz gold from a 600Mt resource.
Key investment themes emerging in the sector include oxide copper developments, which offer lower capital intensity alternatives to traditional projects, and increased interest in stable jurisdictions amid growing geopolitical concerns in traditional copper-producing regions. Companies with strong ESG practices and those exploring copper-gold deposits are attracting premium valuations.
For investors, opportunities exist across the risk spectrum, from established producers to exploration companies. Success factors include management expertise, asset quality, and jurisdiction risk management. The market particularly favors companies that can demonstrate scale potential while maintaining strong balance sheets and consistent news flow.
The sector's outlook remains positive, driven by anticipated demand growth from the clean energy transition, though careful selection of investment opportunities is crucial given the varying performance across the sector.
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Recording date: 13th February 2025
The nickel market has maintained remarkable stability, trading between $15,000-15,800 since December 2024, with London Metal Exchange (LME) inventories showing only modest increases of 4,000 tons despite analyst predictions of significant surpluses. This stability through the Chinese New Year period suggests underlying market strength.
Indonesia's strategic decision to maintain ore supply at 200-220 million tons indicates a measured approach to market management. This comes as the Philippines introduces legislation for a five-year ore export ban, though industry experts suggest limited impact due to decades of high-grade ore depletion. According to Mark Selby, CEO of Canada Nickel, the Philippines' move comes too late: "They should have probably done this 20 years ago, when they still had some higher grade material left."
The global nickel landscape is significantly influenced by China's approximate 70% beneficial ownership of Indonesian nickel projects, creating supply chain concerns for Western manufacturers. This concentration has prompted Western nations, particularly the US, to seek alternative supplies for their aerospace, defense, and automotive industries. Selby emphasizes that "China is still Enemy Number One," noting that Western car manufacturers are actively avoiding dependence on Chinese-controlled supply chains.
In response to potential tariff scenarios, companies are diversifying their market exposure. European markets, especially those prioritizing low-carbon materials, present viable alternatives to US markets. Middle Eastern interest in nickel projects has also increased, broadening market opportunities.
The sector has attracted significant investment, with notable transactions including Power Nickel's $40 million raise, Magna Metals' $25 million financing, and several smaller deals. Canada Nickel secured $3 million in government funding for IP carbonation work, highlighting growing public sector support for strategic nickel projects.
The investment thesis for nickel remains strong, driven by several factors: secure supply concerns as China dominates Indonesian production, Western manufacturers seeking non-Chinese supply sources, anticipated supply pressure from the Philippines' export ban, and growing demand from EV, aerospace, and defense sectors. Premium pricing for low-carbon nickel production and alternative markets in Europe and the Middle East provide additional upside potential.
As the nickel market undergoes this transformation, investors are advised to focus on companies with assets in stable jurisdictions, proven management teams, and clear paths to production, while maintaining awareness of the broader geopolitical context affecting the sector.
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Recording date: 29th January 2025
Kung Hei Fat Choi – Happy New Year
Over the past 2 weeks, nickel made a strong break of over 16,000 per tonne off the $15,000 low set earlier in the month but couldn’t escape the Trump turbulence, which dragged metals prices back down, although nickel has dropped less than some other metals like zinc. Over the last 2 weeks, we have seen NPI prices and stainless prices edge higher in China, suggesting the production chain is tightening up despite Trump turbulence – today is the Chinese New Year – so we will get a better view over the next 2 weeks. Chinese are trying to talk down the market while supply is tightening. Remember, Tsinghsan got it wrong 3 years ago, and prices moved higher quickly last year in the first quarter. I still think we will see a higher squeeze.
The latest INSG data supports the market that Indonesia took the foot off the brake, showing mine production back up about 15% in October/November – government talked about a 200 Mt quota for 2025, so we will see in January/February what happens – have a case about why Indonesia should want to see prices higher back towards $20,000 earlier.
INSG data also showed global demand for the year now at 4.9%, with China up 3.8% - like last year, expect both numbers to be upgraded as Chinese 300 series stainless steel production was reported to be up 9.5% in 2024 – this is the largest single use of nickel globally – SMM (china agency) reporting global demand growth up 6.3%
Company News
Good news from Centaurus Metals – significant increase in nickel concentrate grade to 34% nickel from 12% nickel – a huge shift in downstream costs, particularly as the amount of nickel relative to zinc and fluorine content (which smelters don’t like) has increased significantly.
Canada Nickel – more news on the regional program – best overall regional drill hole at Midlothian – highest grade drill results – 0.29% over the entire core length and multiple holes with grades at the upper end of 0.2-0.3% range. Announced results from 3 other targets as well and added an additional resource to be published this year – eight regional resources and nine total, including Crawford.
Crawford permitting is progressing well – public consultation phase for this part of the process – the first meeting only had ten people attend and three questions // tribute to our team who have actively consulted communities from very early on in the project. A report in Timmins Today on one group talking about the impact on North Driftwood River – we welcome comments during this period – is the purpose of this phase. This is an issue we studied extensively – a cheaper and easier option for us would be to discharge in the much larger Mattagami River, but as they said, North Driftwood is “small stream”, and we are impacting a higher proportion of flow in this watercourse so we are taking the steps to be able to discharge in this stream.
Aston Minerals announced merging to create a gold-focused company – two companies with gold assets in Australia and Canada merging – nickel asset seen as the future option value.
Vale announced the sale process for Thompson assets – these assets used to produce 40ktpa of nickel and are now producing 10ktpa nickel. These are assets our team knows well, and our knowledge of ultramafic nickel deposits and processing can add significant value.
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Recording date: 12th of January, 2025
Indonesia, controlling roughly two-thirds of global nickel supply, is positioned to significantly influence nickel prices in 2025 by actively managing its output. The country is expected to target prices in the $20,000-$21,000 per tonne range, according to Canada Nickel CEO Mark Selby. This price target reflects Indonesia's strategic interests, as nickel and stainless steel exports have become crucial to its trade balance.
The nickel market shows promising growth prospects for 2025, with demand expected to increase by 8-10% overall, potentially reaching 20-25% growth in the electric vehicle (EV) battery sector. Despite facing headwinds from U.S.-China trade tensions in 2024, the market still managed to grow by over 4%, outperforming most other base metals.
A notable market discrepancy has emerged over the past three years. While analysts reported cumulative surpluses of 600,000 tonnes, actual visible inventory increases were less than 100,000 tonnes, suggesting stronger underlying demand than recognized.
The geopolitical landscape is adding another dimension to the nickel market. Western governments are increasingly viewing nickel supply as a national security issue, pushing to reduce dependence on China. This shift is driving efforts to reshape supply chains and develop new sources of nickel outside of Indonesian control.
However, viable large-scale nickel projects outside Indonesia are scarce, particularly at current price levels. Most curtailed production would require prices above $22,000/tonne to restart, reinforcing Indonesia's market influence.
In this context, Canada Nickel's Timmins district projects are gaining attention as a potential significant non-Indonesian supply source. The company is advancing its flagship Crawford project toward a construction decision by late 2025, attracting increased interest from downstream stainless steel and alloy producers seeking supply diversification.
The market dynamics create opportunities for companies that can provide secure nickel supply from stable jurisdictions. End-users are increasingly looking to diversify their sourcing away from Indonesian dominance, driven by both supply security concerns and the growing demands of the EV battery sector.
As Selby notes, "2025 is year one of the ONEC era," suggesting a transformative period ahead for the nickel market. The combination of Indonesia's supply management, accelerating EV demand, and Western governments' push for supply chain security points to a potentially significant market shift, with particular opportunities for well-positioned projects in stable jurisdictions.
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Interview with
Tim Moody, President & CEO of Pan Global Resources Inc.
Andy Home, Senior Metals Correspondent, Reuters
Recording date: 8th January 2025
The tin market is experiencing significant transformation as the metal's role in the global energy transition becomes increasingly critical. As a crucial component in electronics soldering and solar panel coatings, tin demand is expected to grow with the expansion of electrification and renewable energy infrastructure.
Industry experts project a potential supply deficit of 13,000 tons by 2030 without new mining investments, driven by anticipated demand growth of 2-3% annually. This shortfall is complicated by mounting supply risks from key producing regions.
Indonesia, a top refined tin producer, is pursuing policies to restrict raw material exports and develop domestic downstream processing capabilities. According to Reuters senior metals columnist Andy Home, while Indonesia's ambitions mirror its successful nickel export ban, the country faces unique challenges in developing downstream tin industries due to tin's specialized electronics applications.
Meanwhile, Myanmar, another top tin producer, continues to impact market dynamics. An ongoing ban on new mining at one of the world's largest tin deposits has affected supply, particularly to China. This has led to declining inventory levels on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, which dropped from over 20,000 tons in early 2024 to approximately 6,000-7,000 tons, prompting China to become a net importer of refined tin.
Europe is responding to these supply chain vulnerabilities by considering adding tin to its critical minerals list. Tim Moody, CEO of PanGlobal Resources, notes the strategic advantage of developing tin projects in Europe, where almost all tin is currently imported except for recycled material.
While substitution risks exist, particularly in traditional applications like canning, the electronics industry's trend toward miniaturization is making tin increasingly indispensable in soldering applications. Advanced electronics require high-tin content solders with ultra-fine pitches, making alternatives less viable.
Looking ahead to 2025, the tin market faces potential volatility. While demand concerns persist due to China's slow economic recovery and recession risks in developed markets, supply-side factors are expected to dominate price movements. The market will be particularly sensitive to China's inventory levels and import patterns as it adapts to constrained supply from Myanmar and potential disruptions from Indonesia.
The combination of growing demand from the energy transition sector, limited new mining projects, and supply chain risks presents both challenges and opportunities in the tin market, particularly for projects in stable jurisdictions that can help diversify global supply.
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Recording date: 20th December 2024
The global copper market is poised for significant growth, with BHP projecting a 70% increase in demand through 2050, driven by economic development, energy transition, and digital infrastructure expansion. This growth trajectory, averaging 2% annually, builds on historical demand that grew at 3.1% annually over the past 75 years.
The current market comprises 31 million tonnes of total demand, with 10 million tonnes met through scrap and 21-22 million tonnes from primary mine supply. However, the industry faces substantial challenges, including aging infrastructure, with over 50% of producing mines exceeding 21 years in age. Declining ore grades and increasing capital intensity further complicate the supply outlook, with brownfield project costs rising 65% over the past 15 years.
Despite recent price weakness relative to gold, strategic investors continue to make significant investments in copper projects. Notable transactions include BHP's $4.1 billion acquisition of Filo Mining, Agnico Eagle's $40 million investment in ATEX, and South32's $29 million stake in American Eagle.
Several exploration companies are showing promising developments. Hercules Metals recently reported encouraging results, including 338 meters of 0.47% copper with mineralization increasing at depth. American Eagle, with a market capitalization of $107 million, plans to expand its drilling program to 25,000 meters in the coming year. Pan Global is advancing multiple projects in Spain, while Gladiator Metals has reported significant drilling results and completed a $12.6 million private placement.
Industry veteran Merlin Marr-Johnson, discussing his own company Fitzroy Minerals, highlighted a new copper discovery in Chile's coastal copper belt, reporting intersections of 30m at 3.5% copper and 135m at 0.73% copper.
The sector's investment landscape suggests focusing on projects with lower capital intensity and stronger economics may offer better risk-adjusted returns. Infrastructure advantages and shorter paths to production are becoming increasingly important factors. While near-term price action remains challenging, continued strategic investment activity indicates long-term confidence in the sector.
For investors, the key considerations include project quality, infrastructure advantages, strategic interest from major mining companies, and consistent exploration success. The fundamental supply-demand picture suggests strong long-term prospects, particularly for well-positioned exploration and development companies with efficient capital management and strong execution capabilities.
Mark Selby, CEO of Canada Nickel Corp
Recording date: 20th December 2024
Mark Selby, a prominent nickel industry expert, predicts nickel prices will reach $20,000 per ton by the end of February 2025, driven by supply constraints and steady demand growth. Despite current prices hovering around $15,000 per ton after sliding from a $21,000 peak in May 2024, several factors point to an imminent price recovery.
Indonesia's dominant position in the global nickel market emerges as a crucial factor. Now accounting for nearly two-thirds of world supply, Indonesia has earned the moniker "OPEC of nickel." As nickel represents one of Indonesia's largest exports, the government has strong incentives to maintain higher prices through supply management. Recent indicators suggest Indonesian supply will remain flat or potentially decrease in 2025.
Global supply faces additional constraints, with nickel mine production declining for five consecutive months. The situation is further complicated by the Philippines' seasonal production slump during its rainy season, when output typically falls by half. This reduction becomes particularly significant given the substantial Philippine ore already directed to Indonesia throughout 2024.
On the demand side, the electric vehicle sector continues to show robust growth despite regional variations. China leads with 40% growth in EV sales during 2024, while North America achieved 10% growth. Although Europe experienced a slight decline, global EV sales maintained an overall growth rate of 25%. The increasing adoption of nickel-containing NCM batteries in EVs supports sustained demand growth.
In corporate developments, Canada Nickel Company secured a significant $20 million investment from First Nations groups and achieved key permitting milestones for its Crawford nickel sulfide project in Ontario. The company also reported promising results from regional drilling at its Mann South target, which shows potential comparable to the Crawford project.
The market outlook appears increasingly favorable as multiple factors converge: Indonesia's supply management, global production constraints, the Philippines' seasonal slowdown, and sustained EV sector growth. While current prices remain soft due to Asian buyers' cautiousness over potential Trump tariffs impacting Chinese growth, Selby anticipates these concerns will resolve post-inauguration, setting the stage for a significant price recovery.
This combination of supply constraints and steady demand growth suggests the nickel market could tighten considerably in early 2025, potentially creating favorable conditions for price appreciation. The situation warrants close attention from investors and industry stakeholders as the market dynamics continue to evolve.
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Recording date: 25th November 2024
The nickel market has faced some headwinds in recent months due to concerns over Chinese economic growth and the potential impacts of U.S. tariffs on trade. However, nickel prices have shown resilience, bouncing back over the $16,000 per ton level after dipping to lows around $15,500 earlier in the year.
One of the key factors supporting the bullish outlook for nickel is the constrained supply picture. According to the International Nickel Study Group, global nickel supply rose just 4% year-over-year through September. Notably, Indonesian mine supply growth has been flat in recent months as ore availability has become a challenge. Mark Selby, CEO of Canada Nickel Company, believes this dynamic, coupled with the upcoming rainy season in the Philippines which will hamper production there, is likely to lead to a supply squeeze and set the stage for nickel prices to trend back towards $20,000 per ton in early 2025.
On the demand side, nickel consumption increased by 5% year-over-year through September, driven in large part by the rapidly growing electric vehicle battery sector. While there is some uncertainty around EV subsidy policies in the U.S. going forward, the broader incentives put in place by the Inflation Reduction Act to support domestic critical minerals supply chains are expected to remain intact and underpin nickel demand.
The tightening market fundamentals are starting to be reflected in the performance of nickel-focused miners and explorers. Canada Nickel and Asian Battery Metals both reported high-grade nickel sulfide discoveries at their projects recently. Meanwhile, Alliance Nickel released a positive feasibility study on its nickel-cobalt heap leach project in Australia.
For investors looking to gain exposure to the strengthening nickel market, key considerations include targeting companies with high-quality nickel sulfide assets in stable jurisdictions, royalty and streaming firms to mitigate operational risks, and integrated producers with exposure to the entire nickel value chain. The recent pullback in nickel prices could also provide attractive entry points, as development-stage assets have historically seen significant re-rating potential once the market narrative shifts to undersupply conditions.
While risks remain, the overall outlook for the nickel market appears increasingly bullish based on the tightening supply and demand fundamentals. The ongoing energy transition and global focus on developing secure critical minerals supply chains should provide a favorable long-term backdrop for nickel prices and equities. As always, investors should conduct thorough due diligence on individual companies and projects before allocating capital.
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Recording date: 7th November 2024
The often overlooked tin market is poised for a potential supply crunch in the coming years as strong demand from the electronics and electric vehicle sectors collides with increasing disruption risks from dominant producers Myanmar and Indonesia.
Over half of global tin consumption goes into soldering for circuit boards and semiconductors, making it a direct play on the rapid growth of 5G smartphones, IoT devices, data centers, renewable energy and electric vehicles. The ongoing boom in these technologies is set to underpin healthy tin demand through the late 2020s. As Andy Home, Senior Metals Columnist at Reuters, explains, tin is "the metal that holds - that glues - the internet together."
However, the tin market faces major near-term supply risks due to the shutdown of Myanmar's Man Maw mine, which accounts for 7% of worldwide output. The mine was ordered to suspend operations in August 2022 by the United Wa State Army, one of Myanmar's largest ethnic militias, and there is no timeline for when production will resume. The disruptions have caused Chinese tin concentrate imports from Myanmar to collapse over 90% year-to-date.
"Our best gauge of what's going on, since we don't get any production figures, is to look at how much raw material China is importing from its neighbor. That tells me that whatever is going on there, no one's actually mining again," Home states. The longer the Myanmar shutdowns persist, the more likely it is that tin prices react to the loss of supply as Chinese smelters face "genuine distress" and are forced to cut production.
The other key supply risk is Indonesia's ambitions to ban exports of tin and other unprocessed metals, emulating its success in nickel. As the world's largest shipper of refined tin, any restrictions on Indonesian cargoes could significantly tighten the global market. However, tin faces unique challenges in trying to force electronics and semiconductor firms to invest downstream in Indonesia compared to nickel's more straightforward stainless steel supply chain.
While near-term supply risks remain elevated, tin also has a bullish long-term fundamental outlook. The pipeline of new tin mines is limited and over 80% of global reserves are controlled by just five countries - China, Indonesia, Peru, Bolivia, and Brazil. The surging demand from electronics, EVs and renewable energy could leave the tin market facing structural deficits by the end of the decade.
For investors looking to gain exposure to these tin dynamics, the options are buying physically-backed tin ETFs, shares of major listed producers like Yunnan Tin and Malaysia Smelting Corp, or investing in diversified miners with some tin output like Rio Tinto and Glencore. When allocating to tin equities or futures, it's key to have a multi-year time horizon and be prepared for volatility given the small size of the market at just 400,000 tons annually.
The critical applications, Myanmar disruptions and Indonesian export policy risks mean tin could fly under the radar to be one of the best performing metals of the coming years. As Home concludes, "If you want to know why tin's outperformed on the futures markets this year, it's that - that's the risk premium. Everyone knows there's a problem here, and we all know that we have no idea when the problem's going to be resolved."
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