The Chancellor, Rachel Reeves has been widely trailing this month’s budget and the difficult decisions she’ll have to make in just under two weeks time. This is being taken as code for tax rises and a possible break in Labour’s manifesto pledge with a rise in income tax. She’s said one of the key reasons for this is that the government's official forecaster, the Office for Budget Responsibility or OBR, is likely to lower its UK productivity growth forecast for the coming years. So why is UK productivity a problem and what can be done to improve it?

Guests: Chris Giles, Economics Commentator, The Financial Times Helen Miller, Director, Institute for Fiscal Studies Duncan Weldon, economist and author Greg Thwaites, Research Director, Resolution Foundation.

Presenter: David Aaronovitch Producers: Caroline Bayley, Cordelia Hemming, Kirsteen Knight Production co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele Sound engineers: Rod Farguhar and James Beard Editor: Richard Vadon

Something is going in the southern Caribbean. The world’s largest aircraft carrier - the American USS Gerald R Ford- is on its way to the region. Small boats said to belong to Venezuelan drug smugglers are being blown up by the US military. Old US bases are being de-mothballed. And there’s media talk of Trump-induced regime change in Caracas, with Venezuela’s authoritarian, leftist president Nicolas Maduro in the crosshairs. In this week's Briefing Room, David Aaronovitch and guests ask what this military show of strength is really about and what it mean for the region?

Guests:

Will Grant, BBC Mexico, Central America and Cuba Correspondent. Jeremy McDermott, co-founder and co-director of InSight Crime, a Colombia-based think tank that studies organised crime in the Americas. Dr Christopher Sabatini, Senior Fellow for Latin America at Chatham House Dr Annette Idler, Associate Professor in Global Security at the Blavatnik School of Government at the University of Oxford.

Presenter: David Aaronovitch Producers: Caroline Bayley, Kirsteen Knight and Cordelia Hemming Production co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele Sound Engineer: Gareth Jones Editor: Richard Vadon

When a disaster or serious event happens, such as the Grenfell Tower fire, the Manchester Arena terrorist attack or the Covid pandemic, you can be pretty sure that a public inquiry will follow. They’re popular with the public as a means of investigating serious state failure. And for Governments they can be a good way of kicking a difficult issue into the long grass, as usually by the time the inquiry is finished a different set of politicians will have to deal with the report.

There are currently 25 public inquiries in progress in the UK today - the most ever, with six announced so far this year. They range from one into Scottish child abuse, which is the longest current inquiry, to another into a police restraint death which has just lost its chair and the lawyers working for the inquiry, to Covid 19 - the largest currently underway. And which by the end of June this year had cost 177 million pounds. David Aaronovitch and guests discuss how these public inquiries work, what they achieve and who, if anyone, benefits from them?

Guests:

Judith Moritz: BBC Special Correspondent Deborah Coles, Executive Director, INQUEST Emma Norris, Director of Policy and Politics at IPPR think tank, Professor Lucy Easthope, emergency planner and responder and visiting Professor at the Centre for Death and Society, University of Bath.

Presenter: David Aaronovitch Producers: Caroline Bayley, Kirsteen Knight, Cordelia Hemming. Sound engineer: Duncan Hannant Editor: Richard Vadon.

Some of the biggest figures in finance, from the CEO of JPMorganChase to the Governor of the Bank of England, have been warning of potential shocks to the global economy.

As excitement continues to build about the transformative potential of Artificial Intelligence, the US stock market has boomed, potentially forming a fragile bubble. Meanwhile, recent bankruptcies in America have raised worries that a rapid growth in lending by private companies (so-called shadow banks) might be built on shaky ground - and have invoked memories of the subprime mortgage debacle that kicked off the Great Financial Crisis in 2007. And if that wasn’t enough, the threat that Donald Trump might reignite his tariff-driven trade war still looms over the global economy.

So how worried should we be? David Aaronovitch speaks to the top experts to find out.

Guests: Katie Martin, markets columnist at the Financial Times Duncan Weldon, economist and author of Blood and Treasure Simon French, Chief Economist and Head of Research at investment company Panmure Liberum

Presenter: David Aaronovitch Producers: Nathan Gower, Kirsteen Knight Editor: Richard Vadon Programme Coordinator: Maria Ogundele Sound Engineer: Duncan Hannant

As Rachel Reeves approaches a tricky budget, her job has got that much harder. Some of our most fundamental economic data, statistics that policymakers are used to accepting at face value, suddenly have major question marks over their accuracy.

The UK’s top stats agency, the Office for National Statistics, finds itself under considerable pressure as falling response rates to its surveys leave politicians flying blind. David Aaronovitch asks what this means for government decisions and how the ONS can rebuild confidence in its most vital statistics.

Guests: Georgina Sturge, research affiliate at the Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford Professor Denise Lievesley, former Principal of Green Templeton College, Oxford Chris Giles, economics commentator at the Financial Times. Peter Lynn, Professor of Survey Methodology at the University of Essex

Presenter: David Aaronovitch Production co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele Producers: Nathan Gower, Kirsteen Knight, Cordelia Hemming Studio engineer: Duncan Hannant Editor: Richard Vadon

There have been in celebrations in Israel and Gaza at the announcement of a ceasefire and the beginning of a longer term plan for peace and reconstruction in Gaza. There have been ceasefires and hostage releases before, but then the death and destruction has resumed, so why is so much more hope being invested in the current plan? And what’s actually in it?

Guests: Rushdi Abu-a-loaf, BBC Gaza Correspondent Sir Lawrence Freedman, Emeritus Professor of War Studies, King's College London David Makovsky, Director of the Program on Arab-Israel Relations at the Washington Institute of Near East Policy Dr Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa Programme at Chatham House.

Presenter: David Aaronovitch Production co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele Producers: Charlotte McDonald, Kirsteen Knight, Cordelia Hemming Studio engineer: Dave O’Neill Editor: Richard Vadon

Five years ago we in the UK were in the false lull between the first wave of covid and the second, between the first variant and the second, between the first peak of covid deaths and the second, higher peak. There wasn’t a vaccine and we didn’t know when we might get one. Now it’s a memory.

But another deadly pathogen might pop up in fifty years or it might be manifesting its early stages right now.

In the final part of our three-part mini-series looking at how the resilient the UK might be in dealing with potential future crises, we’re asking…..how prepared are we to deal with the next pandemic?

Guests: Dame Sarah Gilbert, Professor of Vaccinology at the Pandemic Sciences Institute, University of Oxford; Sir Peter Horby, Professor of Emerging Infections and Global Health, and Director of the Pandemic Sciences Institute, University of Oxford; Malik Peiris, Emeritus Professor of Virology in the School of Public Health at The University of Hong Kong

Presenter: David Aaronovitch Production co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele Producers: Ben Carter, Kirsteen Knight, Sally Abrahams Studio engineer: Neil Churchill Editor: Richard Vadon

From councils disrupted by ransomware, leaked defence data or individuals duped by deep fakes, the UK faces increasing cyber threats. David Aaronovitch asks his guests how prepared we are - whether as government defending critical infrastructure or as individuals guarding our digital identities.

Guests: Sadie Creese, Professor of Cyber Security in the department of computer science, Oxford University Dr Aybars Tuncdogan, Associate Professor in digital innovation and information security, Kings College, London Emily Taylor, CEO of Oxford Information Labs and Associate Fellow, Chatham House

Presenter: David Aaronovitch Producers: Ben Carter, Sally Abrahams and Kirsteen Knight Production co-ordinator: Rosie Strawbridge Sound Engineers: Dave O’Neill and James Beard Editor: Richard Vadon

The UK is getting hotter. And wetter. Extreme weather events in the UK are happening more often. And that trend won’t stop any time soon. It all means more flooding and fire risk. Enter the R word - resilience - how well are we coping with what’s going on now, and how advanced is our planning for what’s coming? In the first of our three part mini series looking at how the resilient the UK might be in dealing with potential future crises we ask how prepared are we to deal with the changing climate?

Guests:

Mark Maslin, professor of Climatology at University College London Richard Dawson, professor of Engineering at Newcastle University Jess Neumann, Associate professor of hydrology at the University of Reading

Producers: Ben Carter, Kirsteen Knight and Sally Abrahams Productions co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele Sound engineer: Neil Churchill Editor: Richard Vadon

In a time of sluggish economic growth, the favourite way of squaring the circle of spending more but not increasing taxes is to borrow - and we have.

Keeping everybody’s lights on during the pandemic and homes heated after the Russian invasion of Ukraine has helped send our national debt up from £1.8 trillion to £2.8 trillion in recent years.

But the question for the chancellor Rachel Reeves is how much more debt we can afford - and how much more debt do the markets think we can afford?

So what’s the answer to that?

Guests:

Duncan Weldon, economist and author of 'Two Hundred Years of Muddling Through' Mehreen Khan, economics editor of The Times Chris Giles, economics editor of The Financial Times

Producers: Ben Carter, Kirsteen Knight and Sally Abrahams Productions co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele Sound engineer: Neil Churchill Editor: Richard Fenton-Smith

For years there has been an argument, sometimes loud, sometimes subdued, on whether Britain needs an ID card system. One big reason given for wanting them is simply to know who is here legally. With illegal and irregular migration never far from the headlines these days and with President Macron, during his recent visit describing the “pull factor” of illegal migrants being able to work in Britain, the debate is being resurrected. So, what is the history of ID cards in the UK, what form might they take if we have a system and would they work?

Presenter: David Aaronovitch

Guests:

Jon Agar, author of The Government Machine Rainer Kattel, Professor of Innovation and Public Governance, UCL Edgar Whitley, Professor of Information Systems in the Department of Management, LSE Rachel Coldicutt, technology specialist and executive director of the research consultancy, Careful Industries.

Producers: Caroline Bayley, Kirsteen Knight and Sally Abrahams Productions co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele Sound engineers: James Beard and Neil Churchill Editors: Sam Bonham and Bridget Harney

'Britain is back on the world stage' said Prime Minister Keir Starmer in May following the first UK-EU summit since the UK left the EU in January 2020. Outline agreements were reached to remove red tape for British farm exports and energy trading with the EU as well as plans for a security and defence partnership. Then a few weeks later the Prime Minister held summits in London with first the French President, Emmanuel Macron and then the German Chancellor, Friedrich Merz. David Aaronovitch asks whether this is the beginning of a new closer relationship with the European Union and if so, what compromises might need to be made.

Guests: Peter Foster, World Trade Editor of the Financial Times Jill Rutter, Senior Fellow at the Institute for Government Anand Menon, Director of the UK in a Changing Europe Mujtaba Rahman, Managing Director for Europe at Eurasia Group Consultancy

Presenter: David Aaronovitch Producers: Caroline Bayley, Ben Carter and Kirsteen Knight Production Co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele Studio engineers: Callum Mclean and James Beard Editors: Richard Vadon and Lisa Baxter

It’s been 3 1/2 years since Russia launched an unprovoked invasion of its Ukrainian neighbour. Ukraine’s capacity to resist has depended on two things: its own will to fight and support from its allies. Until January this year the US was one of those allies. Then things changed.

But in the last week President Trump seems to have taken a turn against Russia. The US president said he was “very unhappy” with President Putin over the lack of progress towards a ceasefire agreement to end the war in Ukraine. On Monday the White House announced 100 per cent tariffs on countries which do business with Russia - those tariffs to begin in 50 days time unless a ceasefire with Ukraine is agreed. President Trump also announced that the US would be sending weapons to Ukraine which NATO allies - and not America - would pay for. David Aaronovitch and guests discuss whether the tide is turning in the Trump-Putin relationship and if this could change the course of the war between Russia and Ukraine.

Guests: Paul Adams, BBC World Affairs Correspondent Anton Grushetskyi, Executive director Kyiv International Institute of Sociology Shashank Joshi, Defence Editor, The Economist Angela Stent, Senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and a former US National Intelligence Officer for Russia

Presenter: David Aaronovitch Producers: Caroline Bayley, Ben Carter and Kirsteen Knight Production Co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele Studio engineers: Tom Bartlett and Alyson Purcell-Davis Editor: Richard Vadon

The Trump hokey cokey is back. Tariffs on, tariffs reduced - now they’re heading back up again. It really got going on April 2nd- President Trump’s so-called “Liberation Day” - when he announced a swathe of punitive tariffs on trading partners across the world. The markets tanked and then there was a pause. Countries had 90 days to strike a trade deal - 90 deals in 90 days - we were told. But there weren’t. There were only 2. The deadline was this week but now it’s next month. But in the past few days the White House has been sending out a flurry of letters with higher tariffs for those without a deal - which is almost everyone. David Aaronovitch asks his guests just what is going on, what’s happening to world trade and what happens next?

Guests: Soumaya Keynes, Economics Columnist The Financial Times Meredith Crowley, Professor of Economics, University of Cambridge Justin Wolfers, Professor of Economics and Public Professor of Economics and Public Policy, University of Michigan Philip Coggan, author, The Economic Consequences of Mr Trump: What the Trade War Means for the World

Presenter: David Aaronovitch Producers: Caroline Bayley, Sally Abrahams, Kirsteen Knight Production co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele Sound engineer: Neil Churchill and David Crackles Editor: Richard Vadon

The Government was forced into a humiliating climbdown over its controversial benefits bill this week, and any savings the Treasury had hoped to make were wiped out. The politics of this is a subject on its own, but the underlying problem the government was trying to solve, however, remains. David Aaronovitch asks his guests why the cost of disability benefits has ballooned so unexpectedly, who gets them and why and whether the system works for disabled people.

Guests:

Paul Lewis, Presenter Moneybox, BBC Radio 4 Tom Waters, Associate Director, Institute for Fiscal Studies Louise Murphy, Senior Economist, Resolution Foundation Ruth Patrick, Professor of Social and Public Policy, University of Glasgow

Presenter: David Aaronovitch Producers: Caroline Bayley, Kirsteen Knight and Sally Abrahams Production co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele Sound engineers: Sarah Hockley and Gareth Jones Editor: Richard Vadon

President Trump says the conflict between Israel and Iran is over after 12 days. For the US and Israel the declared objective has been to destroy Iran’s capacity to make a nuclear bomb, with a side order of regime change if possible. They have damaged Iran’s capacity to build nuclear weapons but for how long? And what now is the objective for Iran? To rebuild their nuclear weapons programme? Or just for the regime to stay in power? David Aaronovitch and his guests discuss what's next for Iran.

Guests: Dr Patricia Lewis, arms control and nuclear physics expert Shashank Joshi, Defence Editor at The Economist, Dr Lina Khatib, Associate Fellow at the Middle East and North Africa Programme at Chatham House Professor Ali Ansari, founding director of the Institute of Iranian Studies at St Andrews University

Presenter: David Aaronovitch Producers: Caroline Bayley, Kirsteen Knight Sound Engineer: James Beard Production Co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele Editor: Richard Vadon

Following a deadly terrorist attack in Indian administered Kashmir in April a short military conflict broke out between India and Pakistan. For a brief history of the tensions over Kashmir Caroline Bayley spoke to former BBC India correspondent, Andrew Whitehead, who’s an expert on Kashmir and its history and author of “A mission in Kashmir”. This is part of a new mini-series called The Briefing Room Explainers. They’re short versions of previous episodes of the Briefing Room. Presenter: David Aaronovitch Producer: Caroline Bayley Editor: Richard Vadon

As the Ukraine war grinds on with little sign of Russian president, Vladimir Putin agreeing to a ceasefire we trace the evolution of his attitude towards Ukraine. David Aaronovitch spoke to Vitaly Shevchenko who is Russia editor for BBC Monitoring and co-presenter of the BBC’s Ukrainecast.

This is part of a new mini-series called the The Briefing Room Explainers. They’re short versions of previous episodes of the Briefing Room.

Presenter: David Aaronovitch Producer: Caroline Bayley Editor: Richard Vadon

Tariffs have dominated the first few months of President Trump’s second term. But where did he get the idea from? Ben Carter spoke to Douglas Irwin, professor of economics at Dartmouth College in New Hampshire in the US.

This is part of a new mini-series called the The Briefing Room Explainers. They’re short versions of previous episodes of the Briefing Room.

Presenter: David Aaronovitch Producer: Ben Carter Editor: Richard Vadon

Rare earths and critical minerals are precious resources everyone seems to want but what are they and what are they used for? David Aaronovitch speaks to Ellie Saklatvala, head of Nonferrous Metal Pricing at Argus – a provider of market intelligence for the global commodity markets.

Guest Ellie Saklatvala

This is part of a new mini-series called the The Briefing Room Explainers. They’re short versions of previous episodes of the Briefing Room.

Presenter: David Aaronovitch Producer: Caroline Bayley Editor: Richard Vadon