Did you happen to notice that Tylenol recently launched a dietary supplement product range designed to promote joint comfort and mobility? When the best-selling pain relief brand in the U.S. market launches a drug-free product range…it not only speaks volumes about shifting consumer attitudes from treatment to prevention, but also about the increasing importance of supplements for the pharmaceutical industry. And maybe unsurprisingly to my fellow industry nerds, but this new product launch further strengthens the pharma-nutra convergence trend. In fact, pharmaceutical companies have been increasingly tapping into the preventive segment…seeking new revenue opportunities to mitigate against numerous factors hampering industry profits. Therefore, even during periods of relatively strong demand for OTC drugs, supplements still present an important opportunity to expand the product offering…thus we expect this trend to continue and likely permanently reshape the nutraceutical industry.

Monster Beverage Corporation (NASDAQ: MNST) is without a doubt one of best two-way players in the beverage game, but it’s hard to argue another “best defender in the industry” award isn't warranted after it recently announcing a new female-focused energy drink called FLRT will launch in early 2026. Offense and defense are terms that we’re mostly familiar with when talking about sports, but these words are also applicable in business strategy. When a company is playing offense, its making investments that move the business forward. Alternatively, when a company is playing defense, its making investments to prevent potential downside. Offensive and defensive business strategies are equally important, but when you utilize them depends on numerous internal and external considerations...and accounting for these various marketplace dynamics could mean an offensive-heavy or defensive-heavy strategic gameplan would yield more short- and long-term value generation. So, who’s the “King of Defense” in the beverage industry? If I was voting for this totally made-up award (again), I would give it to Monster Beverage Corporation just like when I examined the Reign Total Body Fuel and Reign Storm product innovations in February 2023. But instead of launching copycat energy drinks to defend against Bang Energy and CELSIUS, another highflying energy drink brand (or I guess brands) are currently on the Monster Beverage hit list. And while recent business performance has been relatively great at Monster Beverage, but that doesn’t mean it’s benefitted from every underlying growth driver powering the energy drinks market. Amid a slew of distribution partnerships, investments and acquisitions, the biggest success stories of the past several years have come to energy drink brands reaching toward female consumers. And the massive, continued achievements by Alani Nu and record-breaking early categorical results from Bloom Nutrition must’ve finally signaled “the future is female” to Monster Beverage because they just announced the upcoming launch of FLRT. Initially debuting in four flavors, FLRT will be positioned as a zero-sugar, female-focused energy drink brand. And while totally understanding (and respecting) the strategic defensive move from Monster Beverage, I didn’t need to read the overwhelmingly negative comments from pundits to know FLRT wasn’t going to be received well online. But since energy drinks are marketed as lifestyle brands that offer beverages with a functional benefit of caffeine, authenticity matters A LOT. So, while Alani Nu and Bloom Nutrition were each co-founded by female fitness influencers, Monster Energy is the epitome of such longtime mainstays of energy drink marketing like extreme sports and bikini models…that for some time suggested the only valuable categorical consumer were young males. And even if Monster Beverage attempted to develop female-focused energy drinks more than a decade ago, that overwhelmingly negative sentiment online obviously shows the brand identity of Monster Energy is so entrenched that consumers feel it seems grossly inauthentic to suddenly pivot now. Instead, if Monster Beverage wants to become liked by female consumers…it probably needs a more dramatic strategic plan. Thus, how about I leave you with this idea…Monster Beverage should acquire Olipop.

Did Applied Nutrition report the type of annual performance that deserves a shot at the championship belt? Applied Nutrition Plc (LSE: APN) is a leading sports nutrition brand sold in over 80 countries worldwide. There are several product ranges, including the namesake Applied Nutrition, All Black Everything (ABE), Body Fuel, and Endurance. Additionally, because of a trademark issue, the U.S. division sells its products under the AN Performance name. In fiscal year 2025, Applied Nutrition reported generating revenue of about $141 million, which increased 24.2% YoY. Given that its annual results were stellar, and Applied Nutrition has relatively low awareness in the U.S. market…my latest first principles content piece will examine a collection of recent strategic decisions that will help you better understand the business growth story. Applied Nutrition has historically reinvested profits back into the manufacturing capabilities and that existing pattern of capital allocation was reinforced in the latest financial statements. And that vertical integration (manufacturing around 80% of all products in house) allows Applied Nutrition to quickly evolve its product strategy to access emerging trends and fill opportunity gaps across the marketplace (positively impacting growth of distribution points and shelf space with existing and new customers). Also, Applied Nutrition’s product strategy (aided by vertical integration) can be leveraged for geographical expansion. Currently, about 45% of Applied Nutrition total revenue is being captured from commercial activities in its home market of the UK. But arguably the most important geographical expansion progress has been happening within the United States. Though, despite describing the geographic activity as “remaining in its infancy,” Applied Nutrition originally entered the U.S. market three years ago and became (from what I understand) the first sports nutrition brand headquartered outside of North America to land on all Walmart shelves nationwide. Moreover, Applied Nutrition has launched products catering towards U.S. consumers like licensed flavor collaborations with the global fruit brand Chiquita and nostalgic orange drink Tang. While I’ve tried a few of these products (and generally rate them high in terms of flavor matching, flavor likeability, and formulation approach), those great (glocalized) Applied Nutrition products are only a foundational element to unlocking any chance of success within the U.S. market. And I’m not recommending that Applied Nutrition completely transform its brand strategy globally, but if it hopes to have a meaningful chance at outsized commercial success in the fastest moving, quickest evolving, and most competitive marketplace for the sports/active nutrition niche of the supplement industry…it will need to better define its brand distinctiveness, increase its global marketing investments, and overall turn up the strategic aggressiveness. However, there remains a massive obstacle for Applied Nutrition, as it cannot sell under Applied Nutrition in the U.S. market because Irwin Naturals (owned by FitLife Brands) holds the trademark rights.

About a quarter of the 152K+ convenience stores have spoken, and they shared some interesting opinions about the growing energy drinks category. And even if you aren’t familiar with every insight regarding this beverage category, I’m sure you intuitively recognize that convenience is the most important sales channel (by sales dollars) for energy drinks in the U.S. market. But here are my top “categorical” takeaways from the most recent Goldman Sachs Beverage Bytes survey. Firstly, 60% of retailers are expecting energy drink brands to increase prices before the end of the year. And I started off in that direction because I don’t want any avid consumers of energy drinks to be caught off guard when your preferred daily caffeine fix gets more expensive by a few percentage points later this year. Next, while I wasn’t particularly a fan of this new flavor…most convenience store owners characterized the launch performance of Monster Ultra Vice Guava as “very strong.” Finally, convenience store owners are projecting that every energy drink brand in the top seven will experience full-year growth of at least mid-single-digits from 2024.

Can Celsius Holding navigate the hidden energy drinks market risks involving the Alani Nu and PepsiCo DSD distribution swap? Celsius Holdings (NASDAQ: CELH) had quarterly revenue of $725.1 million, which was up 173% YoY. Excluding the Alani Nu acquisition-related financial impact, CELSIUS brand revenue grew 44% YoY. And if you were wondering about Alani Nu, it’s second quarter revenue was $332 million…which equates to around 99% YoY growth! According to Circana last 13-week retail sales data, CELSIUS increased by 31% YoY...remaining the third-largest energy drink brand in the category with a dollar share of 11.2%. Alani Nu increased retail sales 114% YoY and is now the dominant fourth player in the U.S. energy drinks market with dollar share of 7.2%. And Rockstar Energy retail sales decreased 9% YoY and is the seventh-largest U.S. energy drink with dollar share of 2.4%. If we look at Celsius Holdings combined brand portfolio, it reached 20.8% of dollar share for the last 13-week period...ranking it third and trailing only Red Bull and the combined Monster Beverage portfolio. Additionally, if you were to consider the last 52-week period ending July 20, 2025…Celsius Holdings retail sales surpassed $5 billion. Celsius Holdings has experienced massive growth in convenience stores, foodservice (e.g. fast food restaurants), mass retailers like Walmart, the club channel in retailers like Costco, and the Amazon marketplace. And international expansion presents significant opportunity for incremental growth over the next three to five years. With the Celsius brand basically at full distribution now…growth will be unlocked through a strategic growth framework that John Fieldly recently branded as “more people,” “more places,” and “more often.” The other major aspect of “Celsius Holdings and PepsiCo strengthening its long-term strategic partnership” comes into play, as Alani Nu will move into the PepsiCo DSD distribution system (officially starting in December). Everyone knew the most obvious decision to optimize for a “short-term reward” was Celsius Holdings transitioning Alani Nu from its piecemealed national (mostly independent) DSD network to the PepsiCo system. However, I can’t fault Celsius Holdings for making A LOT of noise by effectively “pulling off the biggest “trade” the U.S. energy drinks market has seen over the past decade.” But it’s the question around “timing” that has me fired up! But it’s time for Celsius Holdings to prepare…because winter is coming! Firstly, Celsius Holdings efficiently must handle market challenges stemming from swapping Alani Nu distribution rights. Next, Celsius Holdings must successfully catch the Rockstar Energy proverbial falling knife. Then, the shift to zero sugar, functional energy drinks, has essentially fueled one of the fastest-growing segments in beverage…and Celsius Holdings had been unequivocally defining it. Yet, with the addition of Rockstar Energy, Celsius Holdings must now reorient itself top to bottom around being a total energy portfolio…and not a performance-forward and modern energy portfolio that possesses this powerful “challenger mindset.”

Public Company CEO Rule 1 - "When all else fails…just mention AI." Glanbia Plc (LON:GLB) is a multibillion-dollar global nutrition company that's currently comprised of three divisions that span across the B2B supply chain (i.e. Health & Nutrition and Dairy Nutrition) and branded products (Performance Nutrition). “Health & Nutrition” is a leading global ingredients solutions business, providing value added ingredient and flavor solutions to a range of attractive, high-growth end markets. In the first nine months of 2025, revenue increased by 11.5% YoY. “Dairy Nutrition” is the number one producer of American-style cheddar cheese in the U.S. market, but more importantly (for my audience) the number one producer of whey protein isolate…and provides a wide range of dairy and functional protein solutions. In the first nine months of 2025, revenue increased by 3.2%. The brands in the Glanbia Performance Nutrition portfolio include; Optimum Nutrition, BSN, think!, Isopure, and Amazing Grass. Glanbia Performance Nutrition had first nine months of 2025 revenue that declined by 2.6% YoY. Additionally, I'll dive deeper into Glanbia Performance Nutrition geographical, sales channel, product format, and categorial performance. As part of the branded products portfolio part of the group-wide transformation program announced last November, Glanbia completed the sale of SlimFast and Body & Fit. In total, those divestures generated only around $63 million…which is a far cry from the almost $400 million paid for both assets less than a decade ago. Optimum Nutrition, which was the initial M&A transaction in 2008 that created the GPN division, now represents 68% of the total revenue. In the last year, Optimum Nutrition generated revenue of approximately $1.2 billion. The other largest share of GPN revenue is the healthy lifestyle brand portfolio makes up 19% and includes ISOPURE, think!, and Amazing Grass. And these healthy lifestyle brands has collectively performed relatively strong over the last several years, with like-for-like revenue increasing 2.6% YoY in the first nine months of 2025. Moreover, in terms of U.S. market tracked channels retail consumption growth…the healthy lifestyle brand portfolio was up 6.8%. And for the final portion of my latest first principles thinking content, I'll focus on the recent AI chatbot launch by Optimum Nutrition. While this is hardly “AI washing,” the current iteration of "Coach Optimum” is also not even worth mentioning on quarterly earnings calls. This isn’t to nitpick Glanbia (because it really wasn’t mentioned in any kind of predominant manner) but before parading around “Coach Optimum” again…maybe leadership should deepen its understanding of strategic flywheels from powerful predictive health platforms like Hims & Hers.

In the protein bars market, the rarity of what BUILT Brands hopes to achieve shouldn’t be overlooked, but that doesn’t mean it won’t have ample exit optionality. So, a few weeks ago…citing those elusive “sources familiar with the matter,” BUILT Brands (maker of BUILT bars) reportedly hired an investment brand to explore an exit that could potentially value the protein bar producer at more than $1 billion. And I’m making such a big fuss about that financial echelon mainly because (even with plenty of “upper middle market” deals recently) there have only been two verifiable examples of billion-dollar exit events since the creation of the modern protein bar category about three decades ago. The first was Simply Good Foods acquiring Quest Nutrition for $1 billion in August 2019. Then, about five years after that M&A activity…an international private equity firm became the lead investor in Vitamin Well Group (maker of Barebells) that valued it at around $3.3 billion. But from my understanding, the product origin story began as basically an unsuccessful “garage type hobby business” until CEO Nick Greer was made aware of it through friends and invested (partnered) with BUILT Brands sometime in 2018. Then, after a few years of growth…Nick Greer bought out his business partner, which I assume coincided with a collection of key business events in 2020. These included relocating headquarters (and opening a new production facility), returning to its original proprietary bar formulation, developing its new “puff” bar concept, and announcing USANA Health Sciences made a minority investment in BUILT Brands. However, like any great “math word problem,” only some details truly provide value in determining the correct route before solving our billion-dollar question! Though, maybe most impactful to BUILT Brands (especially if also observing contagion effects) revolves around the nuanced strategic shift sparked by its “puff” bar line extension. Leaning into the famous derogatory categorical statement, that protein bars are basically just “candy bars with added protein,” BUILT Brands created a comparable (but guilt-free) confectionery (candy-like) consumption experience. And consumers have fallen in love with the BUILT Puff Bars combination of its nutritional profile, unique marshmallowy texture, and wide variety of popular dessert-like flavors. Equally, since protein bars are mostly a contract manufacturing “follow the leader” dominated category with a “sea of sameness” market composition…BUILT Brands not fearing form factor uniqueness (complexity) proved to be an important decision. Moreover, by possessing its own manufacturing facility…BUILT Brands retained defensibility from the production process of that (commercially popular) differentiated product. And these strategic decisions will prove significantly valuable towards the quest for a billion-dollar exit, as interested suitors in BUILT Brands (especially certain parties) should fully understand these are non-negotiable when deriving any kind of long-term competitive advantage across the “protein snacking” space. So then, do I honestly think BUILT Brands will be acquired for a billion dollars (or more)? Based on insights trusted parties have shared with me regarding the financial statements, the M&A transaction value for BUILT Brands will most likely land somewhere materially above the $1 billion paid for Quest Nutrition and below the $3.3 billion implied valuation for Vitamin Well Group.

Almost two decades after 50 Cent reportedly made around $100 million from the Coca-Cola and Vitaminwater M&A transaction, his “equity instead of traditional endorsement fees” deal structure has become commonplace within today’s influencer partnerships involving emerging CPG brands. But one of the greatest success stories in recent years involves the popular influencer Alix Earle and modern soda brand Poppi. And though Alix Earle declined to share the size of her stake, her father/manager confirmed that his daughter chose to work with Poppi on an equity basis (along with investing some of her own capital). Moreover, that equity was converted “at a pretty significant gain” in March 2025 when PepsiCo announced its agreement to acquire Poppi for $1.95 billion. However, and maybe providing an even more lucrative “woulda coulda shoulda” example…that same M&A transaction included Josh Richards, another popular internet personality who stated a handful of years ago that he wanted to be the “first influencer billionaire.” Josh Richards participated in the Poppi August 2021 fundraising round (a few years before Alix Earle) but also signed a “marketing services for equity” type contract in 2020. Though, Josh Richards didn’t get paid out from it…and he’s reportedly suing Poppi for an alleged breach of contract involving that unpaid portion of vested equity. All I know is Poppi better hope Dave Portnoy doesn’t go all scorched earth on them…as he appears to be extremely protective of his former co-hosts on the BFFs podcast.

Show me the incentive…and I’ll show you the outcome! So, based on the timing…you might assume that introductory statement indicates something about how $7 billion in new private equity financing would sweeten the Keurig Dr Pepper business spilt, support the JDE Peet’s deal, or maybe even feed off an activist investor. Though, it’s important to recall I’m not an equity analyst or KDP individual investor, which means I admittedly wasn’t super concerned about certain negative consequences of the transaction…or how using a tax-free Reverse Morris Trust would’ve been more favorable to shareholders compared to the agreed upon structure ultimately benefitting JAB Holding Company. And while I obviously understand “an elevated debt load” is interconnected (and influential) to the “North Star” transformation work required to establish two strong, successful companies…I intentionally looked past capitalization strategies and will do so again this content piece. Instead, I'll draw upon my last 15+ years of deep domain expertise…being prominently positioned within the emerging and intersecting CPG categories of food, beverages, and dietary supplements, to uncover a critical misalignment that could cause major long-term KDP “Beverage Co.” concerns. As mentioned within its recent Investor Day presentation, KDP wants to establish growth platforms in large and attractive categories. Since “energy” is the fastest growing $10B+ liquid refreshment beverage category…it’s obviously the most important inside KDP. And we’re going to focus exclusively on dynamics between Nutrabolt and GHOST that I originally brought up in October 2024 when KDP announced it was acquiring GHOST Lifestyle. But maybe within that content piece (or at least shortly after), I expressed my belief that KDP would eventually seek corrective measures…most likely fixing any potential incentive misalignment through further investment in Nutrabolt. However, since last year's KDP and GHOST deal announcement…A LOT has happened from Bloom Sparkling Energy drinks becoming a categorical superstar and (as a result) Nutrabolt acquiring majority stake in Bloom Nutrition to the beforementioned complicated KDP business separation plans. And there’s another interesting tidbit popping up but (either way) change at this level predictably raised questions recently from you guys (and beverage industry trade publications) asking if I had an evolved theory surrounding how KDP might design a new system where Nutrabolt and GHOST have aligned incentives. And since I wouldn't expect any substantial "Beverage Co." investment activity until the KDP and JDE Peet's transaction is complete (and subsequent separation event occurs), I'll discuss if Nutrabolt should be strategically “patient” or “aggressive” as the “future optionality” window opens after KDP “Beverage Co.” matures independently. But despite obvious competitive similarities, this shouldn’t be interpreted as some kind of “GHOST versus Nutrabolt” content piece, as each company is defining their future through different strategic vectors. Instead, I hope you recognized the “hidden risk” regarding how Big CPG continues to reshape its portfolio architecture. Today, Big CPG wants an increasingly larger amount of exposure to this four-way intersection of taste, convenience, nutrition, and functionality. We are currently at the stage where Big CPG portfolios acquire (or partner with) multiple sports nutrition competitors across growth platforms…and could create the type of challenges outlined within this content piece.

The time is now QUEST Nutrition…or risk getting cooked! In this latest episode, I'll utilize the Q4 2025 Simply Good Foods Company (NASDAQ: SMPL) financial statements, earnings call, and supplemental presentations for my expanded strategic commentary around convenient nutrition market dynamics and trends. In fiscal Q4 2025, Atkins Nutritionals brand dragged down the overall portfolio performance, but Quest Nutrition (up 11% YoY) and OWYN (up 14% YoY) beat categorical competitors in tracked and untracked combined channel retail takeaway. What's at the heart of the Quest Nutrition success? Quest Nutrition is still known for the original Quest Bar. And that means the company needs the bar business to be healthy for any of this innovation risk to make sense. But Quest Nutrition has proven it's one of the few brands that can successfully extend across multiple product forms...and its customer base expects them to come into an indulgent snacking category and flip it into great tasting (high protein, low sugar) offerings. The snacks segment of Quest Nutrition, which now accounts for half of all retail sales...and if we analyze one layer deeper, the salty side of the Quest snacks segment had quarterly retail takeaway growth of about 31%. And after representing only 20% of the total Quest Nutrition retail sales three years ago, “salty snacks” is on target to become the largest product platform by the end of fiscal year 2026. Yet, Quest Nutrition is arguably only scratching the surface of this multibillion-dollar (Simply Good Foods redefining) level of opportunity! BUT…and there’s always a “but” which is the emerging competition from notable large “salty snacks” brand portfolios like PepsiCo (Frito Lay) that just announced the protein-ification of its expansive packaged food and beverages product portfolio, don’t instantly think it’s “game over” for Quest Nutrition. It does (in fact) bring a slew of challenges…but also increases the overall “salty snacks” opportunity for Quest Nutrition. Also, I examine what's causing the weak brand performance at Atkins and explain which actions the company is taking to change it. The most difficult task has been flipping the historical Atkins brand messaging from this negative “restriction diet” emphasis to its nutritional snacking products being viewed as a more positive, proactive convenient foundational nutrition focus. Moreover, Atkins must contend with dramatically changing behavior in the “weight management” consumer cohort (a major cause of this change has been the rise of GLP-1 weight loss pharmaceuticals). And then, OWYN retail takeaway growth came from a balance of distribution gains and velocity growth. Moreover, OWYN has significantly accelerated performance across all major sales channels (including ecommerce) and all key retail customers. Finally, I'll explore how Quest Nutrition should combat this defensive move by Big CPG, as what got them to the first billion in retail sales…won’t get them to the next multibillion-dollar goal.

Canadians are really upset at President Trump…maybe because of escalating trade tensions or his “Canada should become the 51st state” rhetoric. But either way, with the new Prime Minister of Canada winning his recent election utilizing an "elbows up" slogan, which is a defensive hockey term signaling you're ready to protect and fight back…it most likely didn’t help temper emotions. Regardless, it has ignited a new wave of Canadian patriotism…with consumers consciously choosing made-in-Canada products as an act of economic self-preservation and national pride. In fact, 71 percent of Canadians stated they will be buying fewer US-produced grocery items this year…with nearly one-quarter planning to make this purchasing behavior permanent. Additionally, 56 percent of Canadians expressed they’d stop buying a certain product altogether if there wasn’t a Canadian-made alternative. So, while “buy local” movements usually prove transitory after economic tensions subside, US-based CPG brands shouldn’t overlook worst-case scenarios…as this current surge in modified shopping behaviors could have comparatively deeper roots than historical examples.

The butterfly effect is crazy because what if soda companies never successfully used the “flavor enhancer” argument with the FDA almost a half-century ago...the almost $26 billion U.S. energy drinks market likely wouldn't exist today! Though, before we get into that FDA decision from 1980, you must first understand that the original recipes of both Coca-Cola and Pepsi included kola nuts, which contained caffeine but also provided a distinctive bitter flavor. Eventually, largely due to concerns about cost and product consistency…the “cola” flavor we recognize today is not the taste of the kola nut itself. Instead, it’s a complex blend of multiple ingredients (including a standardized, isolated form of caffeine). So, with that industry shift in product and supply chain strategy, it no longer mattered if you were a cola beverage or a citrus-flavored soda like Mountain Dew…caffeine became a food additive. And that means…when the Tip Corporation acquired Mountain Dew from its founders in 1960, its decision to revamp the recipe (adding more caffeine than the typical cola) wasn’t just paramount to the beverage’s success but also to our butterfly effect. But throughout the 1970s, health concerns surrounding caffeine intensified…and by 1980, consumer advocacy groups started petitioning the FDA to remove caffeine from its "generally recognized as safe" (GRAS) food additives list. But in response to the FDA questioning the GRAS status of caffeine, packaged beverage manufacurers argued that they used the ingredient as a "flavor enhancer," not for its stimulant effects. Though, in the fall of 1980, the FDA proposed that caffeine be removed from the "Generally Recognized as Safe" (GRAS) list but stopped short of banning it, citing the need for further safety tests. Instead, the FDA made caffeine an interim food additive…and in the meantime, placed a limit on the amount that could be added to carbonated soft drinks. This decision was widely criticized by consumer advocacy groups, who proclaimed the FDA caved to the powerful beverage industry. But maybe even more infuriating, the FDA proposal to remove caffeine from the GRAS list (essentially reclassifying caffeine as a drug), which would have obviously put significant restrictions on its use in foods and beverages, was never finalized. But the ensuing regulatory uncertainty created a new pathway for beverages with high caffeine levels to enter the market under a different category. Under the 1994 Dietary Supplement Health and Education Act (DSHEA), ingredients like caffeine were presumed safe for use in dietary supplements unless the FDA could prove otherwise. This created basically a dual regulatory system where the same ingredient (caffeine) was treated differently depending on the product classification…allowing dietary supplement companies to develop and market “drinks” with much higher caffeine levels. And it resulted in the development of an entirely new beverage category, with modern energy drinks like Red Bull entering the U.S. market about three decades ago. This butterfly effect was crazy, right? If soda companies never successfully used the “flavor enhancer” argument with the FDA in 1980, today’s U.S. energy drinks market wouldn’t be $26 billion dollars in retail sales. Moreover, energy drinks would not have become status symbols…or basically aspirational mixtures, representing lifestyle taste and identity by association, making it arguably the most important beverage category.

MyProtein might be readying itself for a licensing mission “to [MARS], and beyond,” but don’t let that “mission” overshadow your appreciation for its more terrestrial growth strategies currently. THG (aka the company formerly known as The Hut Group) recently updated the public markets by releasing its trading statement for the third quarter of 2025. I’ll be utilizing that financial information, along with notes I took listening to the earnings conference call, and any relevant publicly disclosed information to obviously update you on the recent performance of THG Nutrition division, which includes the world's largest online sports nutrition brand MyProtein, but also utilize everything as the contextual backdrop for my expanded strategic commentary around global sports nutrition market dynamics and trends. Additionally, for those unfamiliar with the up-to-date THG portfolio configuration…due to the THG Ingenuity demerger action occurring at the end of 2024, it now would be described as a global, cash generative, health and wellness consumer brands group. During the third quarter of 2025, THG Nutrition revenue was approximately $197 million, which increased 10% YoY. And while THG leadership asserted the third quarter of 2025 had the highest organic growth rate in several years (and commercial momentum broad-based across categories outside of the core protein range, most notably continuing in activewear and vitamins), I wouldn’t necessarily be jumping for joy, as performance still lagged reported THG Nutrition revenue dollars from each of the third quarters from prior years going back to 2020. But I'll dive into several strategic decisions impacting MyProtein including its global digital sales channel strategy, offline retail expansion efforts, product licensing strategy, and let’s just say A LOT is riding on the success of the MyProtein global rebrand. But basically two years after the start of its initial staggered market rollout, the transitionary impacts from the rebrand are now behind Myprotein. THG leadership reaffirmed that customer feedback continues to be promising, with unaided brand recognition for MyProtein now at its highest level to date. More importantly though…THG Nutrition leadership needs to continue paying close attention to key commercial metrics, as it seeks to continue moving upstream in positioning, thus unlocking sales channel diversification opportunities. THG must ensure the rebrand decision is well received by (and generates) brand affinity with those less price-sensitive customers. THG leadership (again) mentioned “a number of soon-to-be-announced exciting new partnerships,” which we know from last quarter will include a global confectionery leader launching in the fourth quarter (holiday period). However, what we don’t know yet is if my previous Mars, Incorporated prediction is correct…even though I’ve gained further conviction over the recent few weeks. Though, I'll shine more light on a few other licensing partnerships and again recap the impacts from THG selling Claremont Ingredients to Nactarome Group.

I’m not going to lie…there’s been some weirdly interesting new players getting into the consumer packaged goods “game” lately! Several years ago, Netflix launched a “Stranger Things themed” frozen pizza…and more recently merged content with commerce by partnering with Meghan Markle on her “As Ever” CPG brand. Then, a few weeks ago…Pinterest partnered with Chamberlain Coffee to launch the first co-branded global product in its 15-year history. A longtime fan of the platform, Emma Chamberlain has credited Pinterest as a massive inspiration and tool for building Chamberlain Coffee. And maybe for the oddest new entrant, Tinder created “RelationChips” as a way to dispel the misconception that it’s solely a hookup app. So, what do potato chips and Tinder have to do with one another? Apparently, a new relationship starts on Tinder every three seconds…which is the same time it takes to eat a potato chip. Over the last 13 years, I’ve pitched countless clients some thought-provoking “playfulness with purpose” ideas…but this one even got me thinking WTF.

When you think about PepsiCo…your brain either beelines to carbonated soft drinks and their flagship Pepsi brand or packaged foods and their significant market share across salty snack categories. But how about what I like to call the “three-headed categorical monster” of active nutrition? Or maybe it’s time to expand my phrase slightly…especially after PepsiCo CEO stated last week within its third quarter earnings call that “fiber will be the next protein.” However, while PepsiCo leadership now talks wildly about “elevating its innovation agenda with core brands by capturing new occasions through added functional benefits,” categorical offerings outside hydration (so energy, protein, and fiber) were mostly strategic afterthoughts only a handful of years ago. Though, if your primary indicator for strategic change was looking for broad-based portfolio product innovation, you’d likely believe PepsiCo leadership was “all talk” in 2022 when expressing "optimism about the runway for growth within the active nutrition category." Outside of Gatorade deepening its “fuel solutions” for athletes and simultaneously broadening into more active lifestyles…PepsiCo could’ve just looked like another Big CPG player plagued with a mix of poor portfolio management, missed opportunities, and persistent share loss. In fact, you’d only understand where it was heading due to PepsiCo leadership leaving breadcrumb after breadcrumb throughout quarterly earnings statements and investment conference presentations regarding how the $200 billion market cap sized CPG conglomerate would transform its products to better reach shifting consumer preferences…as more moved closer towards this four-way intersection of taste, convenience, nutrition, and functionality. However, heading into 2025…when the business landscape seemed cloudier than ever, as massive “drivers of demand” like GLP-1 weight loss second-order effects became more pronounced and the MAHA movement gained political power, PepsiCo appeared to build further conviction surrounding its long-awaited strategic game plan. Suddenly, all those “nice if possible” innovation cycles focused on reimagining products quickly turned into a cascade of “must have” strategic actions. But my latest first principles thinking content will explore (through the lens of hydration, energy, protein, and fiber) why I believe PepsiCo contains one of the most fascinating “active nutrition” brand portfolios. And while PepsiCo is also making huge “nutrition” adjustments across its entire portfolio, I’ll only sporadically mention the most relevant changes that are adjacent or congruent to adding “functionality” in products. I'll cover subject matter that ranges from Muscle Milk and Gatorade MAHA changes, the recent energy drinks deal that involved PepsiCo, CELSIUS, Alani Nu, and Rockstar Energy...along with how more grams of protein seem to be making its way into anything and everything that’s quick, easy, and accessible (including Doritos, Quaker, Sun Chips, PopCorners, and Smartfood products). Also, I'll cover the two massive decisions (Poppi acquisition and Pepsi Prebiotic) that really showed how serious PepsiCo is about the “fiber will be the next protein” CEO statement. Lastly, PepsiCo is a world-class company with iconic brands, and its willingness to reinvent those brands (against the backdrop of shifting consumer habits and preferences) is venerable. If PepsiCo keeps this “disrupt ourselves” mindset going…I believe it’s well-positioned to continue winning in this important “active nutrition” space.

Over the past several days, famous YouTube creators like Casey Neistat and MrBeast used words like “frightening” or “scary” to describe the various implications surrounding the new artificial intelligence (AI) video creation app Sora that quickly rose to the top of the U.S. Apple App Store charts. And although these popular YouTubers (influencers) are mostly concerned about how the platform generating massive amounts of "AI slop" will impact parts of the creator economy. Though, there's many similar “terrifying” implications surrounding how this type of generative AI technology could speed up product proliferation that the CPG industry hasn't fully considered yet. Also, since we’re still in the very early innings of the AI industrial revolution, and the current median age of U.S. governmental lawmakers is one of the oldest Congressional groups in history (which have proven through public hearings they can barely understand early web 2.0 concepts let alone the next generation of the internet), it largely implies that the private sector will have ample space to “move fast and break things.” And in the case of these newest AI technologies (created by massive technology companies), they’re currently deep in human behavior research mode…testing various “attention at all costs” theories. But most industry professionals would agree that it has never been easier than right now to launch a CPG product. Often driven by the rapid emergence of digital technologies (and democratized advanced contract manufacturing techniques), smaller companies can develop and launch CPG products with less money, reduced expertise, smaller teams, and increased speed. And these constant lowering barriers-to-entry across the CPG industry have substantially grown the overall number of products launched annually. But over the last decade, I’ve thoroughly documented the “Catch-22” nature of the “Endless Aisle Age.” The sheer volume of new CPG products entering the market does provide optionality (especially for niche consumer demand), but it also potentially saturates the market with low-quality or unnecessary items. In that regard, it’s important to remember there’s a fairly limited total categorical (and/or format) spend each day…and if there’s more supply of CPG products vying for that relatively static amount of demand, competition intensifies. And that’s largely why even within niche categories…it has become increasingly difficult for truly innovative (and valuable) CPG products to stand out and succeed.But here’s maybe the most “terrifying” part…even though the CPG industry has recently shifted seemingly overnight from cautious experimentation to full-scale adoption of generative AI, it hasn’t augmented product creation to the same/similar level as what I detailed earlier surrounding content creation (at least yet). What happens when all you need to do is type a few words into your phone from your bed in a dark room, click a button…and it gives you a priced manufacturable CPG product, and then it’s essentially ready for sale? And you do that 1000 times a day, every day! The larger financial aspect involving “CPG AI slop” might help challenge the idea that a capability to create automatically implies a moral imperative to do so, but as those cost barriers diminish further…the future probability of “CPG AI slop” pervasiveness becomes more worrisome. But even without this “AI slop” threat being real currently, CPG companies are already struggling to compete for “share of attention” with algorithm hacking higher-reach, lower-quality goods.

We have a regulatory agency under the Department of the Interior that handles the conservation of federal land for all the tree-huggers. And there’s another regulatory agency under that same government department designating nationally significant historic landmarks for all the history buffs. But what about a national list of culturally significant business properties for all of us business nerds? As an example, how sad is it that PepsiCo announced snack production would stop at its Frito-Lay production facility in Rancho Cucamonga (California) after more than 50 years in operation? And if you’re scratching your head…wondering the significance of this production facility, it’s probably because you didn’t watch the feature-length directorial debut of Eva Longoria from 2023. This is the site where Flamin’ Hot Cheetos were invented (supposedly), thus creating the CPG industry version of “Good Will Hunting.”

When hear the term bootlegging, what jumps into your mind? Maybe names like Al Capone, Bill McCoy, “Lucky” Luciano, and George Remus…that were famously associated with the Prohibition era. Or maybe you think about the role moonshine played in American History. But what about the infamous 5-Hour Energy bootlegging case from a decade ago? Oh…you hadn’t heard of arguably the craziest crime story involving the energy drinks market before just now? From late-2009 until supposedly October 2012, an 11-person operation…led by a husband-and-wife team, placed into interstate commerce nearly 4 million bottles of counterfeit 5-Hour Energy. Accused initially of relabeling Mexican bottles of 5-Hour Energy and reselling them in the U.S. market, it was later discovered that blank bottles were filled with unknown liquids after authentic 5-Hour Energy inventory became unavailable. But adding even more craziness to this story, President Trump commuted the wife’s sentence in early 2021…and one of the original perpetrators was just extradited from Italy after being a fugitive since the initial arrests.

Strategic licensing has been a major growth unlock for MyProtein, but hints of an upcoming partnership could take “the world’s largest online sports nutrition brand” to a whole other level! THG (aka the company formerly known as The Hut Group) recently updated the public markets by releasing its 2025 H1 interim results. I’ll be utilizing that financial information, along with notes I took listening to the earnings conference call, and any relevant publicly disclosed information to obviously update you on the recent performance of THG Nutrition division, which includes the world's largest online sports nutrition brand MyProtein, but also utilize everything as the contextual backdrop for my expanded strategic commentary around global sports nutrition market dynamics and trends. Additionally, for those unfamiliar with the up-to-date THG portfolio configuration…due to the THG Ingenuity demerger action occurring at the end of 2024, it now would be described as a global, cash generative, health and wellness consumer brands group. During the first half of 2025, THG Nutrition revenue was approximately $409 million, which increased 3.1% YoY. And while those aren’t necessarily blowout caliber results…THG leadership noted the second quarter had the strongest growth since the first quarter of 2022. Moreover, momentum was said to be broad-based across categories outside of the core protein range, especially in activewear, vitamins, bars, and snacks. But I'll dive into several strategic decisions impacting MyProtein including its global digital sales channel strategy, offline retail expansion efforts, product licensing strategy, and let’s just say A LOT is riding on the success of the MyProtein global rebrand. But basically two years after the start of its initial staggered market rollout, the transitionary impacts from the rebrand are now behind Myprotein. THG leadership reaffirmed that customer feedback continues to be promising, with unaided brand recognition for MyProtein now at its highest level to date. More importantly though…THG Nutrition leadership needs to continue paying close attention to key commercial metrics, as it seeks to continue moving upstream in positioning, thus unlocking sales channel diversification opportunities. THG must ensure the rebrand decision is well received by (and generates) brand affinity with those less price-sensitive customers. Additionally, THG leadership hinted at a two-way product partnership with a currently unnamed global confectionery leader launching in the fourth quarter (holiday period). Could it be Ferrero Group or even Mondelez International (after the licensing breakup with GHOST Lifestyle)? But I honestly think the biggest potential win-win partnership would be with Mars, Incorporated. Finally, after the first half of 2025 period ended, THG announced the sale of Claremont Ingredients to Nactarome Group. The flavor company has been a long-standing supplier to Europe’s leading nutrition brands, and the deal represents a significant ROI for THG…selling Claremont Ingredients for more than double its initial acquisition price (less than five years later).

Heroes get remembered, but legendary stories involving Anheuser-Busch and Major League Baseball never die. During an era where Coors Field exists in Denver, Colorado…the 1950s story involving August “Gussie” Busch Jr., Anheuser-Busch beer brands, and Major League Baseball almost doesn’t feel real. Less than two months after buying the St. Louis Cardinals in 1953, August “Gussie” Busch Jr. announced that the Anheuser-Busch brewery had also purchased Sportsman’s Park…and intended to rename it Budweiser Stadium. This was a bigtime (and certainly ahead of its time) strategic marketing decision, as Anheuser-Busch (which was founded by his grandfather) wouldn’t become the largest brewer in the United States until 1957. So then, why has the St. Louis Cardinals stadium been known as Busch Stadium and not Budweiser Stadium for the last 70+ years? Well…before the day ended, Gussie revised his Sportsman’s Park announcement, and the ballpark would actually be known as Busch Stadium “in memory of the founder and past presidents of Anheuser-Busch.” But what happened that day has long been an object of speculation. And while Ford Frick (the MLB commissioner from 1951 to 1965) supposedly only knew of Gussie Busch’s original “Budweiser Stadium” announcement just before it happened and made no public comment on that day…the press generally gave credit to Ford Frick for the wild day of stadium naming announcements. Why? Back in the 1950s, baseball was rapidly commercializing, and purists of America’s pastime largely opposed corporate ownership. Additionally, while beer has been a quintessential part of the ballpark experience for more than a century, not every stakeholder liked that baseball and beer got cemented together permanently after the Busch family purchased the St. Louis Cardinals. It’s not known if he ever spoke directly to Gussie Busch on the matter that day, but credit was most likely given due to it being widely known that Ford Frick spending considerable time persuading Busch to set up a new corporate entity to govern the sports franchise…essentially acting as a buffer from the appearance of direct corporate control. And with Busch announcing the stadium would be named after the brewery’s most popular product, it undermined all that hard work by Ford Frick (and likely revealed the limits of his reserved temperament). But here’s where you get to really learn about the temperament of the other party involved…as Gussie Busch was strong-willed and known to have a vindictive streak. But the lore surrounding that day (has been passed down generations), as the feud with MLB Commissioner Ford Frick triggered ideation for the creation of Busch Lager, which officially launched two years later in 1955. And though it seems neither the St. Louis Cardinals Hall of Fame and Museum nor Anheuser-Busch claim to have any documentation confirming (or denying) the accuracy of this legendary story, there’s no denying that Gussie Busch (who had never sat through an entire nine-inning game) cared only how baseball could better sell beer…effectively changing sports marketing forever. Today, beer is deeply integrated into the Major League Baseball experience, with Budweiser serving as the sport's longest-standing sponsor…becoming the official beer of MLB dating back to 1980.