Business history repeats itself…first as tragedy, second as farce. But for the sake of Cizzle Brands' future, let’s hope lessons were learned the first time! While the company is managed as a single operating segment, Cizzle Brands started with a flagship brand CWENCH Hydration. Then, in January 2025…Cizzle Brands launched SPOKEN Nutrition, an NSF Certified for Sport line of athlete-grade sports nutrition products. Next, the company entered the functional foods segment this past September…launching a high-protein product called Sport Pasta under the HappiEats brand. And over the trailing twelve months, Cizzle Brands reported generating revenue of slightly above $10 million. And while most will likely recognize that Cizzle Brands is (at least currently) a much smaller active nutrition company compared to typical categorical competitors highlighted within my content pieces...purely judging the edutainment value of this business story based on the current level of Cizzle Brands revenue generation would undoubtedly show your ignorance surrounding last year’s “reverse takeover transaction” examination. Though, beyond the seemingly intentional (yet) eerily similar growth strategies of BioSteel and CWENCH…it’s a recent M&A transaction that really has me questioning if we’re in some kind of business wash cycle right now! And that’s because on Christmas Eve, Cizzle Brands announced that it had completed the acquisition of Flow Beverage for an aggregate purchase price of approximately $61 million. But while John Celenza isn’t (technically) purchasing that same company (or even facility) twice, the M&A strategic rationale is quite similar. According to Cizzle Brands, the acquisition secures in-house manufacturing capacity for CWENCH, materially reducing cost of goods sold as volumes scale while improving production control and reliability. Additionally, it’s said to strengthen the long-term operating platform…and create meaningful synergies that should materially accelerate its path to profitability. In just about 1.5 years’ time, Cizzle Brands’ products are available already in close to 6000 multichannel distribution points globally. Additionally, Cizzle Brands recently entered into a distribution agreement with a Canadian subsidiary of Keurig Dr Pepper. Though, for the foreseeable future, demand levels of CWENCH Hydration wouldn’t even warrant turning on the lights daily at this approximately 150,000 square foot Tetra Pak manufacturing facility. So, Cizzle Brands NEEDS to ensure its laser focused on how it can better serve current contract manufacturing customers that includes BioSteel or Joyburst. And speaking of the largest co-packing customer of Flow Beverage (aka Cizzle Brands Manufacturing), you probably saw the news by now…but it just sold to Anheuser-Busch in a deal worth more than half a billion dollars! So, if Beatbox Beverages wasn’t already large enough (and assumably smart enough) to possess levels of operational buffering…it certainly is now! Consequently, we don’t know fully what that could mean for Cizzle Brands Manufacturing yet…but I’d assume M&A due diligence triggered conversations with Beatbox Beverages (and AB InBev) cementing confidence that previous manufacturing agreements would be honored into (I believe) the end of the decade.

Did you know there’s a paradox of distinctive brand assets…where the most effective asset types are used least? Every founder is consumed by recognizable visual elements like logos or brand colors. But what about the strategic use of sound across touchpoints to create memorable emotional connections, improve recognition, and differentiate a brand? In today’s short form content era, strong sonic cues or fun jingles are grossly underutilized! Either way, visuals shouldn’t be the only part of your brand experience…especially within ingestible CPG categories where the other senses are even more influential.

More than four years after Better Being Company withdrew its IPO plans, one of the most historically significant dietary supplement brand portfolios finally got a (technically) new owner. Since that “Great Shutdown” period can be blurry for everybody, I’d guess most aren’t aware Better Being Company filed Form S-1 with the SEC (in July 2021) for a proposed initial public offering…let alone that it postponed and eventually withdrew plans (due to market conditions) only a few months later. Obviously, hindsight granted us clarity to understand that despite the number of U.S. traditional IPOs in 2021 climbing to the highest levels since the late 1990s (and deal value hitting record levels), amid expectations for higher interest rates and a return of volatility…the market swiftly rotated away from risky, growth-oriented companies, which especially hurt small-cap IPOs. However, some might still argue it could’ve followed another dietary supplement company, Thorne Healthtech, that filed Form S-1 with the SEC something like a week after Better Being Company…and began trading a “downsized” IPO in September 2021. But even with continued strong sales growth, Thorne Healthtech struggled to maintain its IPO value until a 2023 acquisition by the private equity firm L Catterton offered stockholders a significant premium. Moreover, while most industry pundits would classify Better Being Company and Thorne Healthtech as direct competitors (due to offering similar categorical products), I see dramatically different strategic aspirations. Therefore, it’s highly probable investors wouldn’t have given Better Being Company a similar “spot landing” after eventually noticing it lacked the same prominence of Thorne Healthtech in this new “preventive health and wellness era” where consumers want a distinctively proactive, personalized, and integrative data-led approach. However, for the most part…private equity (and public markets) has adapted to lessons learned from this period, and positive momentum has been rebuilding throughout 2025. And that allows the recent Better Being Company announcement that it had been acquired by a syndicate of global investors led by Snapdragon Capital Partners (which has been a minority stake holder since July 2019). And assumably, Snapdragon Capital Partners would’ve built further conviction in the vertically integrated manufacturer, marketer, and distributor of branded dietary supplements and personal care products…because it had to buyout HGGC, the private equity firm that was responsible for taking Better Being Company (then known as Nutraceutical International) private in August 2017 for just shy of $450 million. But Snapdragon Capital stated in the recent press release that “Better Being Company has seen two years of explosive growth led by its flagship Solaray brand.” Additionally, within a trade publication article from earlier this year, President and Chief Commercial Officer (Kyle Garner), which joined in 2023, confirmed the strong recent performance of Better Being Company…stating 20% YoY growth and approaching $400 million in net sales (which would be about an additional $80 million in net sales compared to fiscal year 2020 financials). But then, beyond obviously looking for that successful future liquidity event...I'll explore where Snapdragon Capital Partners presumably envision Better Being Company going next?

For those that weren’t lucky enough to experience it firsthand, I’m sorry but you’ll never truly understand what it felt like being a suburban kid growing up in the mid-90s, with this unwavering need to dial 1-800-FUN-COLOR…convinced that your persistence toward a winning vote could change the candy landscape forever. In fact, if you were to ask the 10-year-old version of me about his crowning achievement, I’d proudly answer helping “blue” become the next M&M’s color. And while the MAHA movement will soon throw away that (three decades of dust-collecting) participation trophy, there’s actually a bigger threat to the candy brand. Most CPG companies are largely unready to handle the ingredient shortages, input cost inflation, and supply issues caused by climate change over the next decade. From staples to cash crops, disruption from these factors won’t happen everywhere at once…but the impact severity will only increase over time. So, that’s why Mars Incorporated is seeking supply chain security by working to cultivate drought- and disease-resistant peanut varieties. But here’s a suggestion for the candy giant…maybe everything can be solved with another contest, but this time to find the next George Washington Carver.

It’s hardly a secret that American food companies rely heavily on undocumented immigrants for physical labor. Whether it’s the laborers who tend livestock and cultivate crops or workers behind the scenes in meatpacking and other agricultural production plants, our food system is powered by a cheap, willing and, often, undocumented workforce. Yet, intensified immigration enforcement, such as ICE raids, has triggered labor shortages across the food system. And before you think something silly to yourself like “great more opportunity available for native-born workers now,” really consider how many unemployed U.S. citizens (living in a city) would move to a rural area, perform backbreaking work daily, and take an almost 40% percent pay cut (compared to the average nonfarm wage)? Most Americans understand that farm laborers aren’t easy to replace. In fact, during the 2024 election cycle, 75% of registered voters believed undocumented immigrants mostly fill jobs US citizens don’t want to do. Nevertheless, this isn’t about offering amnesty to all undocumented immigrants, but I think our country needs commonsense immigration solutions…especially those focused on safeguarding critical industries that rely on migrant labor. And maybe it should begin with a clearer pathway for migrant farm workers to earn legal status…along with expanding access to the H-2A visa program for non-seasonal agricultural industries.

Reports suggest around one-third of U.S. adults use continuous monitoring technology and health wearables…with trends showing persistent growth, especially among younger, educated, and higher-income individuals. And by providing 24/7/365, real-time data on physiological metrics like vital signs, glucose levels, and sleep patterns…continuous monitoring technology and health wearables are becoming increasingly powerful drivers of consumer behavior. And I believe this is super important, especially if you consider how more individuals began viewing themselves as consumers in the healthcare market compared to solely being patients. Also, with the help of continuous monitoring technology and health wearables…consumer healthcare has been evolving from a reactive, one-size-fits-all treatment approach to a distinctively proactive, personalized, and integrative data-led approach. Moreover, empowered by this "proactive health" mindset, consumers increasingly moving closer towards this four-way intersection of taste, convenience, nutrition, and functionality. Therefore, the most direct impact of continuous monitoring technology and health wearables is arguably the mainstreaming of the "food as medicine" philosophy. When consumers receive moment-by-moment feedback on how specific foods, beverages, and dietary supplements affect their bodies…they start demanding products tailored to their unique biological needs. But maybe the most significant example would be glycemic responses detected by continuous glucose monitors. In fact, whether boosted further by the recent FDA clearance for over-the-counter continuous glucose monitors and/or the rising usage of GLP-1 drugs for weight management…heightened interest in blood sugar management has also expanded beyond the diabetic community. Obviously, “war” had been waged on sugar a long time ago…but a “MAHA-influenced marketplace” has slightly shifted, with consumers being more comfortable with sweetness that has natural connotations. Either way, this signals a potentially powerful opportunity for packaged food and beverage companies to embrace diabetic-friendly products (for general wellness), as it’s reasonable to imagine a similar adoption trajectory of gluten-free beyond those with celiac disease. Nonetheless, nearly 43% of consumers (today) associate healthy food with boosting performance, which means real-time data has increased demand for ingredients with measurable impacts, such as adaptogens for stress relief and nootropics for cognitive performance. Also, this influx of high-frequency biometric data can help shorten the product development cycle by providing functional CPG companies with "real-world evidence" that was previously unattainable. Next, these health technology wearables have opened a new engagement approach like how seeking to better reach the increasingly influential variations of the “wellness maxxing” internet community, marketers of functional CPG brands have begun showcasing wearable data in social storytelling to help prove product efficacy. While I totally understand the primary business cases involve premium positioning strategies…I’d bet that begins to change, as industry forward-thinkers recognize synthesizing this data into actionable low-cost, high-impact functional product solutions for broader populations is the REAL prize. Lastly, while continuous glucose monitoring revolutionized diabetes care…the same approach applied to inflammatory proteins could transform care for autoimmune diseases or other chronic diseases (i.e. cardiovascular health).

Back in April 2023, you might remember that I uploaded a piece of content titled something like “The Clorox Company should divest its dietary supplement brand portfolio.” It aimed to increase recognition that a collection of supplement brands was buried within The Clorox Company, to clarify the holistic strategic reasoning behind why Clorox spent nearly $1 billion acquiring these dietary supplement brands last decade, and to describe (maybe not so surprisingly) how these dietary supplement brands mostly struggled under Clorox's ownership. And despite all that previous silly M&A justification rhetoric around how The Clorox Company had been a “health and wellness company” for over 100 years, the primary driver behind divestment was an integrated strategic plan that sought to achieve profitable growth acceleration through sharpening its focus on core household care brands. So, in the end…Clorox determined that the dietary supplement business was not aligned with its long-term vision. Accordingly, it took about 18 months after my original content, but that “pure rumor and speculation” turned into The Clorox Company selling its dietary supplements business (in its entirety) including the Natural Vitality, NeoCell, Rainbow Light, and RenewLife brands, relevant intellectual property, and the company's manufacturing and distribution facilities, to Piping Rock Health Products. But let me introduce you to the pure-play business that acquired these assets from The Clorox Company…because (I’d guess) despite its heritage rooted in over a half-century of experience in the supplement industry, many don’t recognize the name Piping Rock Health Products. In 1971, the family’s journey began with Arthur Rudolph, a pioneering figure in manufacturing vitamins. Following in his father’s footsteps, Scott teamed up with him to form Nature's Bounty…which eventually became the world’s largest vitamin manufacturer (marked by private equity firm The Carlyle Group acquiring the company for approximately $4 billion in 2010). A year later, joined by Scott’s son Michael, the Rudolph family took that achievement to the next level by forming Piping Rock Health Products…a vertically integrated multi-format dietary supplement brand manufacturer, distributor, marketer, and retailer. Before acquiring RenewLife, Natural Vitality, NeoCell, and Rainbow Light from The Clorox Company, it internally developed Nature’s Truth…a flagship brand modeled after Nature’s Bounty that now generates around $300 million annually. Also, beyond offering a few other smaller brands…Piping Rock does a lot of private label contract manufacturing for leading retailers. So, irrespective of knowing every Clorox M&A financial detail…the acquisition still signals an upsized level of ambition for Piping Rock, right? But this story doesn’t stop there…as Piping Rock continues to expand its presence in dietary supplements by “remixing” last year’s M&A activity with The Clorox Company. Similarly, targeting a multibillion-dollar CPG conglomerate (with an identity crisis), it was recently announced that Church & Dwight (after concluding its strategic review) signed a definitive agreement to sell the VitaFusion and L’il Critters dietary supplement brands to Piping Rock. In closing, I’d expect Piping Rock to continue taking advantage of a growing trend of Big CPG divesting their dietary supplement brands, as this market momentum creates new opportunities for pure-play businesses to scale through buying established, reputable brands.

While beloved by children…did you know that the entire National Football League combined is estimated to consume about 100K Smucker’s Uncrustables annually? If you aren’t familiar with Uncrustables, it’s essentially a frozen peanut butter and jelly sandwich, minus the crust…and intended to be eaten after they have thawed. The J.M. Smucker Company launched Uncrustables in 1998, and annual net sales of the frozen sandwiches grew 15 percent YoY in fiscal year 2025…with the goal of reaching $1 billion in annual net sales by the end of fiscal year 2026. And largely due to those financial metrics, competition within the frozen sandwich category has increased substantially…as both branded and private label players battle for limited shelf space in the merchandising set. But newcomer Jams is packing the frozen peanut butter and jelly sandwich with more protein, along with deploying a growing roster of influencers and athletes as equity partners…including NFL stars Micah Parsons and CJ Stroud. And that sounds all good…but let’s just hope Jams learned the valuable lesson from Chubby Snacks to “not attack or mock Uncrustables” or the king of the category will gladly put you out business one way or another!

What’s developing isn’t a “high-protein convenient nutrition” categorical battle between wholesale club private label and branded products…but an evolving model of coexistence! The two largest warehouse clubs in the United States each offer shoppers unique features and their own style of bulk discounting…but more recently, the biggest commonality is the effort by Costco and Sam’s Club to expand private label product assortments. In a retail landscape shaped by economic headwinds, generational turnover, and changing definitions of value, private label has become a powerhouse…not only as budget-friendly alternatives but a strategic lever for growth, shopper loyalty, and brand identity. Similarly, in an inflation-conscious landscape, shoppers are choosing private label not just because it’s cheaper…but increasingly because it also meets their evolving expectations for quality, innovation, and experience. But with private label shifting from “stigma” into a reflection of consumer values, thus moving beyond simply being placeholders for branded products…Costco and Sam’s Club are leaning into this momentum by positioning expansive store-brand expansion as a destination. But if you aren’t a Costco member, you might’ve missed that Kirkland Signature launched a whey protein powder last summer. And if you aren’t a Sam’s Club member, you likely overlooked that Member’s Mark launched an ultra-filtered milk protein shake last month. Though, recognizing that both wholesale clubs had launched high-protein bars several years earlier…you might be questioning the significance of these other convenient nutrition private label products, right? For years, Quest Nutrition defined the “high-protein bar” category…essentially building the modern protein bar. Then, both Kirkland Signature and Member’s Mark entered the space…matching Quest Nutrition on just about every product variable. The biggest difference…price! But it was a clear signal that the high-protein bar category had officially gone mainstream. Similarly, Optimum Nutrition and Fairlife are defining the “protein powder” and “protein shake” categories respectively…essentially building those modern convenient nutrition subcategories. But now, wholesale club retailers have entered the space…matching Optimum Nutrition and Fairlife on just about every product variable. Again, the biggest difference…price! But it’s another clear signal that these high-protein convenient nutrition subcategories have officially gone mainstream. But for branded CPG products…private label activity from Costco and/or Sam’s Club can feel like an attack. However, those leading wholesale club retailers are simply upholding a promise to their members. Unfortunately, whether it’s macro-related or more categorically specific factors (like persistent dairy proteins input cost inflation), consumers have increasingly searched for better value without sacrificing quality…and wholesale club private label brands will steadily take fuller advantage of this market opportunity. Finally, despite this rise in categorical private label activity…I’ll end my latest first principles content piece by highlighting how branded products can continue holding a powerful place in consumers’ hearts (and shopping carts).

Are we approaching a paradigm shift…where the conversation elevates from “quantity” to “quality” of weight loss? And if true…what could that mean for “muscle health” CPG products, which have benefitted greatly from the current GLP-1 market dynamics? The first wave of GLP-1 receptor agonists, which I’m dubbing the “quantity” paradigm, has been nothing short of revolutionary…with Wegovy Ozempic and Zepbound Mounjaro demonstrating significant weight loss, often exceeding reported data from Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly clinical trials respectively. This unprecedented efficacy fueled a massive surge in demand and Morgan Stanley projects annual GLP-1 sales will soon become the biggest drug class in history. However, the initial conversation was dominated by how much weight could be (and how quickly it was) lost. Therefore, as these medications became more widely used…critical concern emerged surrounding how a significant portion of the lost weight was not just fat but also valuable lean body mass. But this concern has catalyzed the move toward a next wave in the GLP-1 market, which I’m dubbing the “quality” paradigm…where the focus is on what kind of weight is being lost. Recognizing that health is about more than just a number on a scale, the shifted goal would now be (still) maximizing fat mass reduction but while simultaneously preserving, or even enhancing, lean mass. Also, the “quality” paradigm emphasizes an integrated approach to weight management…as patients seek outcomes that support an active, healthy lifestyle. Accordingly, many CPG companies (explicitly those positioned across the intersecting categories of food, beverage, and dietary supplements) have progressively adapted to support the specific nutritional needs of individuals prescribed GLP-1 medications. In fact, my introductory statement referred to how these GLP-1 market dynamics have been beneficial to certain CPG products (particularly ones aiding in “muscle health”). Also, just to clarify my definition of “muscle health” CPG products that are benefitting greatly from current GLP-1 market dynamics…I’m mainly talking about protein (the tried-and-true nutritional cornerstone of building muscle), but also creatine (a natural fuel source for muscles) and HMB (that helps protect muscle mass). Though, if we want to fully understand any potential “muscle health” CPG categorical impacts stemming from next-gen pharmaceutical innovation aimed at improving long-term metabolic health and functional outcomes. According to analysts at TD Cowen, combination treatments designed to help individuals preserve muscle while losing weight with popular GLP-1 drugs by Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly could generate more than $30 billion in sales by 2035. And maybe the most closely watched mid-stage drug trials have revolved around bimagrumab, which is a muscle-preserving drug that was part of an almost $2 billion Eli Lilly acquisition from mid-2023. Regardless of possible regulatory challenges still remaining, my strong conviction centers around eating less (with the help of current GLP-1 medications) can only do so much to better your health…thus “weight loss while maintaining muscle mass” is far too important for long-term health outcomes. Accordingly, these will become the next holy grail of obesity treatment (as we move closer to the 2030s). And if that prediction is directionally correct (which I believe is highly probable), it means eating/drinking culture will be reshaped further, accelerating a pivot toward nutrient density and functional benefits!

Amidst booming demand for functional beverages…niche ingredients have found a catalyst to mainstream awareness and mass acceptance. Though, there’s a big difference when comparing (say) lion’s mane mushrooms, which meets the FDA definition of a dietary supplement…and kratom, even if plant-derived sources of the niche ingredient could align with natural wellness trends. And I get it…there’s obviously growing market demand for kratom, that (depending on dosage) supposedly delivers a boost of euphoric energy or sedative relaxation. But poor regulatory enforcement doesn’t somehow make it allowable by default. And maybe this is a spicy take, especially coming from someone (personally) holding strong libertarian views when it comes to adults consuming whatever they want, but I believe professionally that beer-affiliated DSD distributors selling high-margin products with kratom (or even hemp-derived THC beverages in certain states) are no different than all these independent specialty supplement retailers selling unauthorized peptides or prohormones.

I’m having a tough time understanding the latest Liquid Death joke…does that mean I don’t have a sense of humor? For those unfamiliar, the original inspiration (that eventually became Liquid Death) occurred in 2009…when Founder (CEO) Mike Cessario went to watch some friends perform with their band at the Warped Tour. And because the festival was sponsored by Monster Beverage…musicians would be on stage drinking out of branded cans. But instead of them being filled with the actual Monster Energy liquid, they’d been replaced with water to keep musicians hydrated during their sets. And that sparked Mike Cessario (an advertising agency creative at the time) to question “why aren’t there more healthy products that still have funny, cool, irreverent branding?” Then, working on a public service ad campaign about the health risks of sugary energy drinks in 2014…he pitched the client on “doing a canned water stunt to poke fun at energy drinks.” While the client hated the idea, Mike Cessario spent the next roughly two years tinkering with the concept in his free time…eventually settling on what he called the “dumbest possible name for a super healthy, safest beverage possible.” But after potential investors passed on canned water concept, Mike Cessario (hoping to prove it was a viable brand), spent a few thousand dollars creating (and promoting) a short commercial that reframed water as the “deadliest stuff on earth” and responsible for way more deaths than energy drinks. So, if the constant impetus for Liquid Death came from “poking fun at energy drinks,” what could it mean when the brand just launched its own energy drink? With the tagline “feels like a cup of coffee, not an electric chair,” what you’ll initially notice is these Liquid Death Sparkling Energy drinks are less loaded with caffeine than most new entrants and challenger brands. And I’d hate if my previous statement was misinterpreted though…because product details can matter! But we cannot overlook that most CPG marketers will proclaim, “our brand this or that,” but few companies ever get past simply attempting to sell undifferentiated products. Though, when you can sell a product that (oh by the way) also brings someone an extremely desirable emotion…you’ve done something truly special. So, particularly when a CPG brand (like Liquid Death) rightfully carries forward its product philosophy (and standards) that helped it become a breakout…details can (in fact) matter. However, while some CPG industry pundits proclaim, “the move appears to be a natural extension of its brand identity, as Liquid Death has long seemed well-suited for the energy drink category,” I’ve got some doubts…especially when reapplying some comments I made last April surrounding the launch of its “Death Dust” hydration supplement stick packs! So, if Mike Cessario is simply taking a snapshot of the U.S. energy drinks market from 2009, 2014, 2018, or right now…it would certainly show the same duopolistic market structure. However, just analyzing Red Bull and Monster Beverage would hardly explain much about which underlying drivers “recently have, currently are, and will undoubtedly continue” powering the remarkable categorical growth. So, this is where I continue to struggle…will the Liquid Death “irreverent marketing” approach resonate with more diverse energy drink consumers looking for authenticity and relatability in brand messaging?

While most Big CPG brand portfolios restructure, realign, and refocus…GHOST is making those strategic efforts by its parent company Keurig Dr Pepper a bit more complicated! After its recent M&A transition (involving JDE Peet’s) closes, KDP plans to separate into two independent public companies…currently given generic “Global Coffee Co.” and “Beverage Co.” placeholder names. And this corporate restructuring move will significantly improve the previous KDP “refreshment beverages” segment by sharpening focus of decision-making, tailoring capital allocation strategies, and (overall) enhancing strategic optionality. But why did GHOST see that last point around “enhancing strategic optionality” and jump straight into launching a new product format…essentially complicating that KDP portfolio simplification process? Well…if you haven’t seen the leaked images yet, GHOST is launching a Protein Bar this month at that’s reminiscent of a Twix bar. And for those ignorant enough to think GHOST really is that impulsive, I can remember having strategic conversations surrounding “protein bars” with their co-founders dating back to 2018. And while all product innovation roads were destined to eventually lead back towards the protein bar category, GHOST proved (once again) it won’t settle for swimming in the “Sea of Sameness” when distinctiveness is a powerful tool to gain a competitive edge.

Wait, you’re telling me that a $100 million plus acquisition just occurred in the North American protein bar market…and I’ve never once mentioned the brand name throughout its almost decadelong existence? That simply cannot be TRU! Though, before anyone tries to ignorantly throw dirt on my name…I'll finally reveal why I’ve been publicly ignoring TRUBAR! However, it was just announced that TRUBAR would be acquired by Eti Gida, a Turkish CPG company, for approximately $142.5 million. And if you were trying to understand the valuation…as of the 2025 third quarter closing (dated September 30, 2025), trailing twelve months revenue from the TRUBAR segment would be just shy of $61 million. So, this would imply a 2.3x trailing twelve-month revenue multiple. And this is why I suspect TRUBAR “retail investors” are unhappy with the M&A transaction, as it would mark what I believe to be one of the lowest revenue multiples in the last decade of the protein bars market. Yet, for several varied reasons…TRUBAR isn’t ONE Brands, Quest Nutrition, FITCRUNCH, Barebells, Power Crunch, or a few other protein bar companies involved in recent M&A activity. Firstly, unlike the negative EBITDA (on a trailing twelve-month basis) at TRUBAR, these other protein bar companies actually made money. Next, while customers might enjoy the taste (and consumption experience) of TRUBAR products, there isn’t anything differentiated about them. If you weren’t familiar, protein bars are mostly a contract manufacturing “follow the leader” dominated category with a “sea of sameness” market composition. But even if TRUBAR differentiation could’ve been gained by form factor uniqueness (complexity), it still requires creating (or owning) the manufacturing process if a protein snacking company really hopes to secure longer-term defensibility (and competitive advantage). Then, with Big CPG jumping heavily into “protein-ified variants” of their leading snacking brands, it will further deepen the competitive landscape and transform “protein” into a battleground category as it proliferates across the entire grocery store. And you can argue that most of the beforementioned protein bars are dealing (at some level) with this same challenge (as the market evolves, expands, and segments further), but mainstream buyers don’t know about TRUBAR. Yes, retail availability has grown substantially in recent years…and revenue growth has largely accompanied it, but TRUBAR still has an extremely low U.S. protein bars market share and brand household penetration percentage overall. But to understand if new ownership can materially improve the likelihood that TRUBAR will become culturally relevant with the next generation of modern protein snacking customers, I'll more closely examine Eit Gida...which is among the top CPG manufacturers based in Turkey (becoming well-known in multiple geographies across various bakery and snacking categories). Though, you might be wondering…why is a Turkish Big CPG strategic acquiring a relatively small Canadian public company selling plant-based protein bars mainly in the U.S. market? But more importantly if Eti Gida can really help TRUBAR carve out a distinct niche in the crowded North American protein bar market.

Did you know that PepsiCo has approximately 70% more packaged beverage SKUs than The Coca-Cola Company…but is generating roughly 15% less retail sales? That was just one of numerous fascinating insights included within the 75-page presentation Elliott Investment Management recently sent to PepsiCo board of directors. After building a $4 billion stake in PepsiCo, the well-known activist investor is urging the CPG giant to evaluate the potential refranchising of its bottling network…while streamlining its portfolio by divesting non-core and underperforming assets. Additionally, Elliott criticized the PepsiCo packaged beverages division for lagging behind principal competitors…despite a consistent flow of flashy (large) M&A deals. And if you’re wondering what that means for the recent “trade” between PepsiCo and Celsius Holdings, Elliott “thinks that the sale of the Rockstar Energy brand is a step in the right direction to simplify the portfolio.”

Has anyone else noticed that compared to a few of its peers…the Premier Protein growth story gets overlooked by pundits far too often? BellRing Brands (NYSE: BRBR) is a portfolio that owns a collection of convenient nutrition brands like Premier Protein and Dymatize Nutrition, which was previously wholly-owned by Post Holdings. A fast-paced and busy lifestyle is pushing consumers to switch to quick and healthy meal options. This has resulted in above average categorical growth rates and increased household penetration of RTD protein shakes that promote active lifestyles. Additionally, powders are becoming more mainstream, and category proliferation has created an environment where more consumers are purchasing both every day and performance nutrition positioned protein products at grocery stores and mass retailers. Bellring Brands reported 2025 Q4 net sales of $648.2 million, which was up 16.6% YoY. Premier Protein (~86% of BellRing Brands total revenue) grew 14.9% YoY, driven by strong volume growth. Dymatize Nutrition was up 32.9% YoY, stemming from strong volume growth and pulled forward international revenue ahead of planned pricing actions in fiscal year 2026. But since this was the company's fiscal fourth quarter, BellRing Brands annual results included generating net sales of $2.32 billion, an increase of 16.1% YoY…which comprised of a 14.7% volume increase and 2.2% increase in price/product mix. Moreover, I provide deep dives into Premier Protein RTD protein shakes business activity, along with examining similar metrics surrounding the protein powders from Premier Protein and Dymatize Nutrition. But my latest first principles content piece will end with briefly analyzing the product development variable defining this next phase of RTD protein beverages market. Premier Protein owns just over a quarter of the market…and the other quarter market share is held by the two RTD protein beverages under Fairlife (owned by The Coca-Cola Company). And from a product development standpoint, (in many ways) these are different products. Premier Protein is essentially an emulsified protein powder beverage…which has a comparatively thicker (higher viscosity) fluid and generally the consumption experience reminds you of drinking a healthy milkshake. Then, Fairlife (Core Power) is primarily ultra-filtered milk…which is thinner and generally the consumption experience reminds you of drinking a typical beverage. So, who (or I guess technically which product approach) wins? I don’t think there’s a definitive answer to this question just yet…despite Fairlife (Core Power) retail sales growth outpacing Premier Protein, and the gap closing quickly across a collection of other commercial metrics. While the competitive landscape is filled with declining legacy, newer insurgent, and crossover brands…it will continue as mainly a marketplace duopoly for some time, as it will take many years to replicate the manufacturing capacity, supply chain, product expertise, brand equity, and retailer relationships of these market leaders.

Even when everyone (including myself) thought it might be finished…could MusclePharm actually be showing signs of life again? But for those unfamiliar with the up-to-date FitLife Brands Inc. (NASDAQ: FTLF) portfolio configuration…due to the acquisition of Irwin Naturals, which officially closed on August 8, 2025, it now sells more than 500 SKUs across 16 supplement brands, each with a slightly different product portfolio and sales channel strategy. But throughout this content, you’ll hear me categorize the FitLife Brands portfolio into three segments: Legacy FitLife Brands, MusclePharm, and Irwin Naturals. In the third quarter of 2025, the consolidated FitLife Brands portfolio generated revenue of $23.5 million...which was up 47% YoY. But while the consolidated FitLife Brands portfolio comparative growth rates appear extremely strong, it’s important to remember that those reported results were greatly impacted by the Irwin Naturals deal. But in my latest first principles content piece, I'll share a detailed collection of segment-level updates that I believe are important when trying to understand the FitLife Brands story. These include revenue diversification strategies within the legacy FitLife Brands that has dramatically lowered "key customer risk" with the specialty retailer GNC and how even the “oldest” supplement brands can still generate revenue growth along with being the strongest contributor to companywide net profitability. But while there's strategic initiatives going on that involve the legacy FitLife Brands and Mimi's Rock segments, the most intriguing activity within FitLife Brands is also currently its smallest segment (i.e. MusclePharm). In the third quarter of 2025, MusclePharm segment revenue was just under $3.8 million...which increased 55% YoY. But you’re probably hearing that…thinking to yourself “incredible results,” right? And trust me…I want nothing more than to give Dayton Judd (and the FitLife Brands leadership team) a huge virtual “pat on the back,” but there’s A LOT of devilish things happening in the details! You probably think I’m being overly dramatic, especially when (in the third quarter of 2025) MusclePharm wholesale revenue more than doubled YoY…and I’ve stated previously “the biggest opportunities will come from B2B activity,” right? However, FitLife Brands wrongfully assuming MusclePharm still had enough distinctiveness in the marketplace to justify its current strategic gameplan (that quickly expanded product formats within the protein category) was a huge miscalculation…and undoubtedly exposed its “above- and below-the-line” weaknesses even more prominently. Though, maybe the newest FitLife Brands acquisition can indirectly help alleviate these MusclePharm challenges? FitLife Brands got a boost in human capital from Irwin Naturals possessing strength in routes-to-market that are beneficial to selling MusclePharm protein bars and RTD protein beverages. And while all of this seems ideal…don’t get trapped into a state of exuberance thinking 1+1=3.

Did you happen to notice that Tylenol recently launched a dietary supplement product range designed to promote joint comfort and mobility? When the best-selling pain relief brand in the U.S. market launches a drug-free product range…it not only speaks volumes about shifting consumer attitudes from treatment to prevention, but also about the increasing importance of supplements for the pharmaceutical industry. And maybe unsurprisingly to my fellow industry nerds, but this new product launch further strengthens the pharma-nutra convergence trend. In fact, pharmaceutical companies have been increasingly tapping into the preventive segment…seeking new revenue opportunities to mitigate against numerous factors hampering industry profits. Therefore, even during periods of relatively strong demand for OTC drugs, supplements still present an important opportunity to expand the product offering…thus we expect this trend to continue and likely permanently reshape the nutraceutical industry.

Monster Beverage Corporation (NASDAQ: MNST) is without a doubt one of best two-way players in the beverage game, but it’s hard to argue another “best defender in the industry” award isn't warranted after it recently announcing a new female-focused energy drink called FLRT will launch in early 2026. Offense and defense are terms that we’re mostly familiar with when talking about sports, but these words are also applicable in business strategy. When a company is playing offense, its making investments that move the business forward. Alternatively, when a company is playing defense, its making investments to prevent potential downside. Offensive and defensive business strategies are equally important, but when you utilize them depends on numerous internal and external considerations...and accounting for these various marketplace dynamics could mean an offensive-heavy or defensive-heavy strategic gameplan would yield more short- and long-term value generation. So, who’s the “King of Defense” in the beverage industry? If I was voting for this totally made-up award (again), I would give it to Monster Beverage Corporation just like when I examined the Reign Total Body Fuel and Reign Storm product innovations in February 2023. But instead of launching copycat energy drinks to defend against Bang Energy and CELSIUS, another highflying energy drink brand (or I guess brands) are currently on the Monster Beverage hit list. And while recent business performance has been relatively great at Monster Beverage, but that doesn’t mean it’s benefitted from every underlying growth driver powering the energy drinks market. Amid a slew of distribution partnerships, investments and acquisitions, the biggest success stories of the past several years have come to energy drink brands reaching toward female consumers. And the massive, continued achievements by Alani Nu and record-breaking early categorical results from Bloom Nutrition must’ve finally signaled “the future is female” to Monster Beverage because they just announced the upcoming launch of FLRT. Initially debuting in four flavors, FLRT will be positioned as a zero-sugar, female-focused energy drink brand. And while totally understanding (and respecting) the strategic defensive move from Monster Beverage, I didn’t need to read the overwhelmingly negative comments from pundits to know FLRT wasn’t going to be received well online. But since energy drinks are marketed as lifestyle brands that offer beverages with a functional benefit of caffeine, authenticity matters A LOT. So, while Alani Nu and Bloom Nutrition were each co-founded by female fitness influencers, Monster Energy is the epitome of such longtime mainstays of energy drink marketing like extreme sports and bikini models…that for some time suggested the only valuable categorical consumer were young males. And even if Monster Beverage attempted to develop female-focused energy drinks more than a decade ago, that overwhelmingly negative sentiment online obviously shows the brand identity of Monster Energy is so entrenched that consumers feel it seems grossly inauthentic to suddenly pivot now. Instead, if Monster Beverage wants to become liked by female consumers…it probably needs a more dramatic strategic plan. Thus, how about I leave you with this idea…Monster Beverage should acquire Olipop.

Did Applied Nutrition report the type of annual performance that deserves a shot at the championship belt? Applied Nutrition Plc (LSE: APN) is a leading sports nutrition brand sold in over 80 countries worldwide. There are several product ranges, including the namesake Applied Nutrition, All Black Everything (ABE), Body Fuel, and Endurance. Additionally, because of a trademark issue, the U.S. division sells its products under the AN Performance name. In fiscal year 2025, Applied Nutrition reported generating revenue of about $141 million, which increased 24.2% YoY. Given that its annual results were stellar, and Applied Nutrition has relatively low awareness in the U.S. market…my latest first principles content piece will examine a collection of recent strategic decisions that will help you better understand the business growth story. Applied Nutrition has historically reinvested profits back into the manufacturing capabilities and that existing pattern of capital allocation was reinforced in the latest financial statements. And that vertical integration (manufacturing around 80% of all products in house) allows Applied Nutrition to quickly evolve its product strategy to access emerging trends and fill opportunity gaps across the marketplace (positively impacting growth of distribution points and shelf space with existing and new customers). Also, Applied Nutrition’s product strategy (aided by vertical integration) can be leveraged for geographical expansion. Currently, about 45% of Applied Nutrition total revenue is being captured from commercial activities in its home market of the UK. But arguably the most important geographical expansion progress has been happening within the United States. Though, despite describing the geographic activity as “remaining in its infancy,” Applied Nutrition originally entered the U.S. market three years ago and became (from what I understand) the first sports nutrition brand headquartered outside of North America to land on all Walmart shelves nationwide. Moreover, Applied Nutrition has launched products catering towards U.S. consumers like licensed flavor collaborations with the global fruit brand Chiquita and nostalgic orange drink Tang. While I’ve tried a few of these products (and generally rate them high in terms of flavor matching, flavor likeability, and formulation approach), those great (glocalized) Applied Nutrition products are only a foundational element to unlocking any chance of success within the U.S. market. And I’m not recommending that Applied Nutrition completely transform its brand strategy globally, but if it hopes to have a meaningful chance at outsized commercial success in the fastest moving, quickest evolving, and most competitive marketplace for the sports/active nutrition niche of the supplement industry…it will need to better define its brand distinctiveness, increase its global marketing investments, and overall turn up the strategic aggressiveness. However, there remains a massive obstacle for Applied Nutrition, as it cannot sell under Applied Nutrition in the U.S. market because Irwin Naturals (owned by FitLife Brands) holds the trademark rights.