Value investor Brian Hirschmann, managing partner of hedge fund Hirschmann Capital, warns we're in the most dangerous time in financial history with three unprecedented bubbles—equities, real estate, and bonds. Hirschmann sees gold doubling to $8,000+ in the coming crisis, but argues for significant upside in gold mining developers. He predicts the Fed will be trapped in a stagflation scenario, and warns the next crisis will be the mother of all financial crises.
This episode is brought to you by VanEck.
Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJulia
Links:
Hirschmann Capital: https://www.hcapital.llc/
Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/HCapitalLLC
Timestamps:
0:00 Intro and welcome back Brian Hirschmann
1:20 Macro picture, 3 bubbles bigger, most dangerous time in US financial history
5:00 Era of bailouts is over, government debt at breaking point
8:10 Are we past the point of no return?
9:00 US debt at 120% of GDP, virtually all countries at this level defaulted
15:55 Gold discussion: doubled since last appearance 18 months ago
20:54 Gold could more than double to $8,500+ if crisis hits
24:27 Gold miners vs gold: developers trading at 20% of intrinsic value
30:36 Misconceptions about gold's rise: tariffs, Chinese central bank, ETFs
34:04 Bitcoin
39:33 Fed will be trapped, lose control of interest rates in stagflation scenario
42:00 Lessons from David Swensen
45:19 Closing remarks
Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst blog, joins The Julia La Roche Show for the debut of his weekly segment "The Wrap with Chris Whalen." Markets hit all-time highs this week before pulling back sharply as the Fed ended quantitative tightening amid growing liquidity stress in money markets—echoing the dangerous conditions of November 2018 when Chairman Powell nearly crashed the system. Whalen warns we're seeing the same warning signs: tightening liquidity, basis trades breaking down, and a Fed flying blind without proper tools to measure reserve availability. Meanwhile, cracks are appearing across markets—from Bitcoin's retreat below $100k to BlackRock's stunning 100% writedown on private debt it valued at par just weeks ago.
Links:
The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/
The Wrap: Is it November 2018 All Over Again?: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira778
Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673
Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen
Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/
Timestamps:
0:00 - Introduction: New weekly segment "The Wrap with Chris Whalen"
0:42 - Markets this week: biggest decline since April
2:34 - Treasury General Account and bank reserves
6:50 - December rate cut now 50-50 toss up
8:14 - Economy still bubbling along robustly
8:39 - If big sell-off, Fed will start QE again
10:40 - Is it November 2018 all over again?
14:38 - Are we setting up for another repo crisis?
17:27 - Bitcoin fell below $95,000 - what's it signaling?
20:50 - Gold discussion: most investors under-invested
24:44 - Private credit concerns
25:48 - Government shutdown resolution
28:29 - Mortgage markets and housing policy
30:00 - Closing remarks and what to watch next week
James Lavish, co-managing partner of the Bitcoin Opportunity Fund and author of The Informationist newsletter, joins Episode 305 of the Julia La Roche Show. In this episode, Lavish explains how the government shutdown has locked nearly $1 trillion in the Treasury General Account, draining liquidity from financial systems and raising concerns about a 2019-style repo crisis as bank reserves fall to dangerous levels. He argues Americans have lost 25% of their purchasing power from 2020 to 2025, and while technology should bring deflation, we instead have persistent 3% inflation because it's necessary to manage $38 trillion in debt through currency debasement. Lavish explains the K-shaped economy where the top 1% gained 8X wealth since 1990 versus 4X for the bottom 50%, noting commercial real estate defaults are spiking and subprime auto lenders are collapsing. When the TGA liquidity eventually floods back into markets, he warns not to mistake it for prosperity—it's currency debasement, which is why he recommends positioning in hard assets like Bitcoin, gold, and real estate. The Fed is trapped between dual mandates with no way out, and while AI stocks may have gotten ahead of themselves risking a market shock, his message is clear: own assets because he's not bullish on the economy, he's bearish on the currency.
This episode is brought to you by VanEck.
Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJulia
Links:
Twitter/X: https://x.com/jameslavish
The Informationist: https://jameslavish.substack.com/
The Bitcoin Opportunity Fund: https://www.bitcoinopportunity.fund/
Timestamps:
0:00 - Introduction and welcome
1:20 - Big picture macro view: Fed battling dual mandates
4:30 - Stagflation risk: prices rising as economy rolls over
5:10 - Government shutdown removing liquidity from markets
7:19 - Treasury General Account (TGA) explained
14:21 - 2019 repo crisis explained
21:31 - Current concerns about overnight lending market
26:18 - Will Fed do QE again?
29:03 - Credit markets
29:07 - K-shaped economy explained
37:08 - Position for currency deterioration
38:28 - Why people think 2% inflation is normal
40:11 - Lost 25% purchasing power from 2020 to 2025
40:41 - Technology should bring deflation, not inflation
46:30 - Why we need inflation: $38 trillion debt problem
50:59 - What's keeping James up at night
55:27 - Closing remarks and contact information
Edward Dowd, Founding Partner of Phinance Technologies, a global macro alternative investment firm, and author of "Cause Unknown: The Epidemic of Sudden Deaths in 2021 & 2022,” joins Julia La Roche on episode 304. Ed Dowd argues we're already in a technical recession, with the stock market bubble driven by just seven stocks masking underlying economic weakness as housing rolls over, layoffs accelerate at Amazon and UPS, and credit markets tighten. He warns that insider selling is at unprecedented levels as institutions distribute to retail investors in classic "FOMO" behavior, while the equal-weighted S&P has gone nowhere since January. Dowd criticizes the Trump administration for gaslighting Americans about the economy instead of communicating the Biden hangover from illegal immigration and deficit spending, explains China is exporting deflation due to their real estate crisis and 20 years of excess housing inventory, and predicts a deflation scare with oil plummeting to $30 before the Fed intervenes with massive QE. He recommends raising cash and moving into treasuries like Warren Buffett, expects the dollar to rip as liquidity dries up globally, sees gold hitting $10,000 by 2030 as central banks accumulate it, and warns Bitcoin will go much lower as it's underperforming treasuries—an early warning indicator of the risk-off environment ahead.
This episode is brought to you by VanEck.
Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJulia
This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://monetary-metals.com/julia
Links:
PhinanceTechnologies: https://phinancetechnologies.com/
US Economy Outlook 2025: https://phinancetechnologies.com/Product_USEconomyOutlook2025.htm?
Twitter/X: https://x.com/DowdEdward
Timestamps:
0:00 - Introduction and welcome
1:09 - Macro view
5:00 - Credit markets tightening, distribution phase of stock market, Trump administration gaslighting about economy
7:00 - China at a crossroads: real estate crisis going acute
7:55 - China exporting deflation, depreciating the yuan
9:00 - Tariffs are deflationary
10:00 - Risk-off environment is coming
11:00 - Dollar outlook
12:40 - Risk off environment: flight to safety into treasuries
14:20 - Three Hindenburg omens: market breadth disaster
15:00 - Gold discussion: long-term bullish, going to $10,000 by 2030
17:00 - AI bubble: momentum and administration fomenting it
22:20 - Retail FOMO buying: sign of unhealthy market
24:32 - Fed cutting but still behind the curve
27:00 - Credit markets sniffing out deflation scare
30:00 - 1970s stagflation period: inflation/deflation yo-yo
30:37 - Oil going to $30: China internal consumption plummeted
33:43 - Gaslighting about the economy: people feel the reality
35:30 - China facing crossroads and crisis starting in 2020
40:00 - Dollar liquidity issue: people scrambling for dollars
40:40 - Treasury Secretary Bessent can term out debt during recession
41:03 - Yellen front-loaded debt, significance of terming it out
42:30 - Immigration
48:40 - 100% probability we're in recession now
49:30 - How to be allocated: raise cash for flexibility
50:40 - Japan carry trade could blow up at any moment
52:00 - What makes Ed optimistic: asset prices will come down
54:07 - Where to find Ed's work and research
Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst blog, returns for an in-person conversation for episode 303. Whalen warns that stocks and crypto are slowing down as they run out of buyers, while real estate pain continues with older assets selling at discounts and more trouble ahead for private equity and private credit. He attributes Zohran Mamdani's NYC mayoral victory to inflation-driven affordability concerns, predicts a home price correction by 2027-28, and expects continued corporate exodus from New York City as long-term leases roll off. Whalen criticizes the Fed for pushing home prices up 50% since COVID and failing their mandate on price stability, discusses widespread fraud in private credit markets, and highlights Bank of America's duration risk mistakes compared to JPMorgan and Citi. He's currently focused on gold and junior mining stocks, explaining the "debasement trade" as central banks worldwide shift to gold as their primary reserve asset, while predicting crypto will "go bye-bye" and calling stablecoins a dead end.
This episode is brought to you by VanEck.
Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJulia
This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://monetary-metals.com/julia
Links:
Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen
Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/
The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/
Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673
Timestamps:
0:00 - Welcome and introduction
1:02 - Reaction to Mamdani election
2:03 - Is this the product of inflation?
2:10 - Inflation driving affordability issues, Fed's failure
2:54 - Heading into correction in home prices by 2027-28
5:26 - How mortgage lenders set rates vs. bond market
6:33 - Will we see a housing emergency declared?
12:08 - Outlook for New York for next four years
14:59 - Big picture view: stocks and crypto slowing down
15:30 - Pain in real estate, private equity, and private credit
20:37 - Duration risk story at banks
27:47 - Will we get December rate cut?
29:17 - Fed funds rate targeting piece
32:49 - Chris's portfolio: taking acorns off the table
35:59 - The debasement trade
39:36 - Crypto going bye-bye, stable coins a dead end
42:05 - Closing remarks
Value investor and former New York City mayoral candidate Whitney Tilson returns to The Julia La Roche Show following the election of Zohran Mamdani, a Democratic socialist, as NYC's new mayor. Tilson reflects on the election results, expressing concern about the candidate he called a "Trojan horse for the DSA" with dangerous ideas about defunding police and seizing private property—yet remains bullish on New York City's future. He also shares his market outlook, favorite long ideas including Berkshire Hathaway and Amazon, and the "stinky six" stocks he's avoiding right now.
This episode is brought to you by VanEck.
Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJulia
This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia
Links:
https://stansberryresearch.com/
https://stansberryresearch.com/whitney-tilsons-daily
Timestamps:
0:00 - Introduction and welcome Whitney Tilson, day after NYC mayoral election
1:04 - Mixed feelings about election night
2:00 - Warnings about Zohran Mamdani and democratic socialist concerns
2:45 - Still bullish on New York despite election outcome
3:10 - What Mamdani's election says about the city
3:22 - Democratic Party dynamics and Trump reaction
4:37 - Why Mamdani won: identifying affordability as key issue
4:54 - Mamdani's effective messaging: free buses, freeze the rent, universal childcare
5:45 - Economics don't work: the promises can't be funded
6:30 - Mamdani as a gifted politician and brilliant public speaker
7:10 - The "Trojan horse for the DSA" warning
7:43 - Whitney's concerns about Mamdani: hostility to Israel, defund police rhetoric
8:30 - Mamdani tacking to center: keeping Police Commissioner Jessica Tisch
9:27 - NYC's vibe is back post-pandemic
9:38 - Big employers making long-term commitments to NYC
10:25 - Risk of turning into San Francisco
10:52 - Wait and see mode: wealthy residents considering leaving
14:30 - Why Mamdani is still dangerous
16:06 - Running for mayor: what surprised Whitney
20:00 - Hope that Mamdani learns from cautionary tales
36:56 - Investment ideas: favorite longs
44:00 - Stocks to avoid: the "stinky six"
47:04 - Berkshire's massive cash pile: $382 billion
51:47 - What's keeping Whitney up at night
56:30 - What makes Whitney optimistic: America's economic recovery
59:38 - Closing remarks
Legendary economist Dr. A. Gary Shilling, President of A. Gary Shilling & Co., an economic consulting firm and a registered investment advisor, joins Julia La Roche on episode 301 on FOMC day. In this episode, Dr. Shilling warns that the economy is cooling with weakening labor markets and stagnant job creation, yet security markets continue to rise without reflecting this underlying weakness. Despite the government shutdown limiting official data, private sector information reveals businesses are cautious about demand and inflation, while consumers face limited financial slack due to heavy student loan and credit card borrowing. Shilling believes the Fed is cutting rates because they fear a recession is on the horizon, and he cautions that "we're probably gonna wake up one of these days and find that things are really a lot weaker than we expect" - at which point markets could deteriorate quickly. He also expresses concern about the "debt bomb" - the massive accumulation of government debt now exceeding $38 trillion with no logical endpoint in sight. However, Shilling remains impressed by the adaptability and resilience of the US economy, noting how it has successfully adjusted to disruptions like tariffs that many predicted would be disastrous.
This episode is brought to you by VanEck.
Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJulia
This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia
Timestamps:
0:00 - Introduction & welcome
0:48 - Big picture macro view: economy appears to be cooling
1:30 - Government shutdown: private data filling the holes
2:00 - Weakening labor markets: limited new hiring
2:45 - Businesses cautious about demand and inflation
3:17 - Recession concerns: won't know until well into it
3:45 - Security markets not reflecting economic weakness
4:03 - Fed Chair Powell presser context (October 29th FOMC meeting)
4:32 - Why markets are overly focused on Fed actions
5:30 - Fed's tightrope walk: keeping economy above water
6:25 - Are rate cuts signaling recession fears?
6:34 - Fed concerned about softening labor markets
7:20 - Finding hidden vulnerabilities during data blackout
7:51 - Labor market concerns: limited consumer slack
8:20 - Heavy borrowing: student loans and credit cards
27:24 - US fiscal picture: debt north of $38 trillion
27:45 - The debt bomb concept explained
28:45 - Massive global debt expansion concerns
29:49 - What happens when debt reaches its limit?
30:23 - What's keeping Dr. Shilling up at night
31:15 - Lack of concern about debt accumulation
32:00 - What makes him hopeful: US economy's strength and adaptability
32:46 - Economic adaptability to disruptions
33:11 - Tariffs discussion: six months later perspective
33:46 - How economies adapt to tariff disruptions
35:03 - Where to find Dr. Shilling's work
35:25 - Parting thoughts: avoiding fads of the moment
36:37 - Closing remarks
Access Dr. Shilling's monthly newsletter INSIGHT by calling this toll free number (1-888-346-7444) or visiting his website (https://www.agaryshilling.com/).
Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and Chief Strategist at QI Research, joins Julia La Roche to break down the October 2024 FOMC meeting and Fed Chair Powell's surprisingly hawkish stance despite mounting evidence of labor market weakness. Danielle questions whether the Fed is ignoring its dual mandate as major companies like UPS, GM, Meta, and Amazon announce tens of thousands of layoffs. She discusses the dissents from both Stephen Miran and Jeffrey Schmid, explores potential political dynamics at play within the Fed, and examines growing stress in private credit markets, commercial real estate, and rising corporate bankruptcies. Danielle also highlights alternative labor market indicators like state-by-state data and WARN notices that paint a concerning picture of the economy, while emphasizing the importance of compassion for struggling American families heading into the holiday season.
This episode is brought to you by VanEck.
Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJulia
This show is brought to you by Monetary Metals.
Learn more about Monetary Metals: https://monetary-metals.com/julia
Links:
Danielle's Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/dimartinobooth
Substack: https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@DanielleDiMartinoBoothQI
Fed Up: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-Reserve/dp/0735211655
0:00 Introduction & episode 300 celebration
1:37 FOMC meeting reaction - Powell's hawkish tone
2:33 What's really going on at the Fed?
3:48 The two dissenters - Miran & Schmid
5:39 Market reaction to Powell's comments
6:17 The Fed's labor mandate - are they ignoring it?
7:16 Major layoff announcements - UPS, GM, Meta, Amazon
8:00 Is the Fed sticking it to the administration?
9:55 Fed balance sheet & mortgage-backed securities
16:19 Private credit market concerns
27:04 Corporate bankruptcies rising
28:18 October bankruptcy data - highest post-pandemic
29:22 Interest rate impact on corporate refinancing
30:05 What would you ask Powell? State-by-state data
31:29 WARN notices & real labor market data
32:19 Layoffs aren't free - cost to companies
33:10 ADP weekly data as labor market indicator
33:26 Message of compassion during the holidays
34:29 Closing & where to find Danielle's work
35:09 QI Research & Daily Feather newsletter
Michael Pento, president and founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies (PPS), joins Julia La Roche for episode 299. Pento continues to warn of three unprecedented asset bubbles in stocks, bonds, and credit existing concurrently. Despite being net long and up handsomely this year, he emphasizes the critical need for active management. Pento explains why the next crisis will likely stem from spiking bond yields and intractable inflation rather than insolvency alone, making traditional Fed interventions ineffective. He argues that any meaningful correction would be catastrophic given the massive scale of current distortions, while the Fed desperately tries to keep bubbles inflated through rate cuts and resumed quantitative easing.
This episode is brought to you by VanEck.
Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJulia
This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. Learn more: https://monetary-metals.com/julia
Links:
https://pentoport.com/
https://twitter.com/michaelpento
0:00 Intro and welcome back Michael Pento
0:59 Big picture macro view
1:38 Three unprecedented asset bubbles: Stocks, bonds, and credit
3:38 Inflation accelerating
4:01 Fed panicking to keep the bubble going
6:56 Are you nervous being net long the market?
8:35 The next crisis will be different - Stagflation risk
9:43 Bond market revolt scenario
12:28 Magnificent Seven concentration risk
14:15 Government shutdown and lack of economic data
16:19 Treasury issuance and bond market dynamics
18:42 Federal budget deficit concerns
20:33 Fed's balance sheet and quantitative tightening ending
24:18 Bifurcated economy
36:45 Political pressure on the Fed
38:50 Trump's economic policies and inflation risks
40:33 Tariffs and their inflationary impact
46:23 What keeps Michael up at night?
47:50 The great reconciliation of asset prices coming
49:02 Where to find Michael's work - Pento Portfolio Strategies
50:10 Closing thoughts
Financial commentator Chris Irons, also known as Quoth the Raven on X and author of the popular Fringe Finance substack, warns we're in "completely off the rails, unprecedented territory" with the Fed trapped between printing money to save markets or allowing deflationary debt defaults. He predicts the Fed will ultimately implement yield curve control to bail out the bond market, pushing America down an emerging market path negative for the dollar—which gold's historic rally is already pricing in. Irons dismisses gold meme stock concerns since central banks are the primary buyers, and argues government spending is politically impossible to cut. Drawing from his background as anonymous short seller "Quoth The Raven," he explains why short sellers face unprecedented challenges as Fed liquidity creates massive distortions—$2 trillion in worthless crypto finds bids while fundamentally sound shorts get squeezed. He believes during April's Liberation Day, markets were "days away from a bond market crisis" when stocks and bonds unusually sold off together. Irons warns a sharp deleveraging event is inevitable though timing is uncertain, offering blunt advice: "Don't listen to anybody, including me" and avoid certainty, because we've never been here before and things can change profoundly overnight.
This episode is sponsored by Monetary Metals. Visit https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/
Links:
X: https://x.com/QTRResearch
Substack: https://quoththeraven.substack.com/
Timestamps:
0:00 - Introduction & welcome
0:36 - Guest introduction: Chris Irons "Quoth The Raven"
1:14 - Big picture macro view: unprecedented territory
2:19 - Gold's rally & stock market highs
2:54 - The 100-year inflationary cycle
4:35 - Fed's dual mandate tension
5:34 - Upcoming Fed meeting & rate cuts
8:00 - Young generation following monetary policy
10:00 - Gold
16:00 - The debasement trade going mainstream
18:40 - Fiscal picture
23:00 - Gold, feels we are on the precipice of a big change
28:00 - Short selling
43:00 - The ultimate bubble
45:00 - Closing
Jim Bianco, president of Bianco Research, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 297 for an in-studio appearance. Bianco argues the Fed is making a policy error by cutting rates when financial markets are at all-time highs across the board—stocks, gold, bonds, M2, and home prices. He explains that job creation has slowed from 158,000 to 29,000 per month not because the economy is weak, but because immigration has essentially stopped, reducing population growth to an 80-year low—meaning 29,000 jobs may actually be appropriate. Bianco warns that cutting rates in this environment risks recreating inflation through two key channels: tariffs (average rates up 6x to 17-18%) and remote work (giving labor more power to demand higher wages). He sees dangerous concentration in AI stocks (41 companies representing 47% of S&P 500 market cap) reminiscent of late-1990s bubble dynamics, with aggressive retail buying and passive flows creating mispricing that could end badly when the "buy the dip" mentality finally breaks.
This episode is sponsored by Monetary Metals. Visit monetary-metals.com/julia
Links:
BiancoResearch.com
BiancoAdvisors.com
x.com/biancoresearch
0:00 Welcome Jim Bianco - first in-person episode
0:27 Big picture macro view
1:18 Jobs market slowdown - 158K to 29K jobs/month
2:18 Immigration and population growth collapse
3:04 How many jobs should we be creating?
4:34 Is the Fed making a policy error by cutting?
6:35 Risk of recreating inflation with rate cuts
7:28 Tariffs update - average rate up 6x to 17-18%
9:00 Remote work as inflation driver
10:32 Labor power shift and wage pressure
13:00 Where will new workers come from?
15:00 What would you ask Jay Powell at FOMC?
17:05 What problem does cutting rates actually fix?
18:15 Market behavior - everything going up
19:08 The 60/40 portfolio debate
20:00 Passive bid and perpetual motion machine
21:25 Retail buying the dip aggressively
23:02 AI concentration - 41 companies = 47% of market cap
25:00 Data center overbuilding risk
25:59 Opening your statements - everything looks great
27:28 Top 10% making 50% of all income
29:21 Inflation destroys cultures and economies
30:00 Would you trade higher unemployment for lower inflation?
33:17 Inflating our way out of debt problem
34:19 Jay Powell's "do your patriotic duty" speeches in 2022
36:23 Story of interviewing for Fed Governor position
39:11 Judy Shelton coming up one vote short
41:28 Who will be next Fed Chair?
42:51 Why Kevin Hassett is the leading choice
45:30 Where to find Jim's work and the WTBN ETF
Macro trends blogger and economist David Woo @DavidWooUnbound, CEO of David Woo Unbound, a global forum devoted to the promotion of fact-based debates about markets, politics, and economics, joins Julia La Roche on episode 296 to discuss the trade war, AI, and markets.
Sponsors:
Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia
In this episode, Woo warns that the US economy is heading toward stagflation as tariff impacts finally materialize, with holiday shopping expected to be weak due to consumers having front-loaded purchases in anticipation of price increases. He argues the US is now in a weaker position versus China in the tech war, as China has survived Trump's tariffs through factory automation and AI integration while US manufacturing continues shedding jobs even in protected sectors. Woo is short NASDAQ heading into November 1st, when China's rare earth export restrictions take effect, believing the market has mispriced both the AI bubble (with companies like OpenAI spending unsustainably while hitting technology plateaus) and the intensifying US-China showdown over AI supremacy—calling this "the macro trade of our generation."
Woo, the former head of Global Interest Rates, Foreign Exchange, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy & Economics Research at Bank of America, is known for some of his bold and contrarian calls, including Trump winning the presidential race in 2016 (https://www.cnbc.com/2016/12/08/bofaml-analyst-got-ovation-from-co-workers-the-morning-after-election.html), and that the 2020 US presidential election would be much closer than expected and the results contested (https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/the-dangerous-groupthink-stalking-wall-street-20210909-p58q48).
Links:
Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/@DavidWooUnbound
Website: https://www.davidwoounbound.com/
Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/Davidwoounbound
Timestamps:
0:00 Welcome David Woo back to the show
0:54 Big picture macro view and difficult 2025
3:08 Why tariffs haven't impacted economy yet
6:09 Consumer spending as preemptive buying
9:16 Holiday shopping weakness ahead
10:05 Gen Z consumer struggles
12:05 Stagflation thesis explained
14:28 Manufacturing job losses in protected sectors
16:43 Who's benefiting from tariffs?
18:05 US-China trade war positioning
21:52 China's factory automation advantage
23:54 US vs China AI strategies
26:44 The race for AI dominance
29:31 The macro trade of our generation
32:01 Jensen Huang: China "nanosecond behind"
34:22 September 29th export sanctions expansion
35:51 November 1st deadline explained
36:27 What would you tell Trump administration?
38:37 Shorting NASDAQ and AI bubble thesis
40:01 OpenAI's revenue vs spending problem
43:44 Technology plateau concerns
46:09 AI bubble meets US-China tensions
47:06 Risk management for short positions
49:15 Key catalysts: November 1st & earnings guidance
52:31 What keeps David up at night
53:13 Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine concern
55:03 Final thoughts and where to find David
Lawrence Lepard explains how the "monetary debasement trade" has gone mainstream as gold hit $4,200 and silver broke to $52. He presents a chart showing Bitcoin lags gold by months before moving harder, predicting Bitcoin will hit $250K as signs point to the "imminent big print" with Powell's May 2026 term ending.
Sponsor: Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia
Links:
X: https://x.com/LawrenceLepard
Website: https://ema2.com/
The Big Print book: https://www.amazon.com/Big-Print-Happened-America-Sound/dp/B0DVTCWYNN
0:00 Welcome back Lawrence Lepard
1:09 Monetary debasement trade going mainstream
2:07 Gold broke from $3,400 to $4,200, silver new all-time high at $52
3:58 Fed
5:08 Fed balance sheet signs pointing to imminent big print
7:38 Bitcoin has lag to gold - gold smells it first, Bitcoin moves harder
9:38 US stock market $66T vs gold/silver miners $800B market cap
11:04 Silver move signals real bull market - heading to $60-$100
13:22 Big beautiful bill spending away tariff and DOGE savings
15:14 Chart: Bitcoin lags gold but moves harder when it catches up
18:09 Gold/Bitcoin both sound money - shouldn't fight each other
20:16 Everything bubble - been dead wrong shorting stocks
22:38 This decade like 1970s on steroids with stagflation
24:51 Possible currency reset or hyperinflation tail case
27:03 Base case: stagflationary 1970s on steroids
28:42 12 Fed members set price of money for 330 million Americans
31:13 Real Housewives of Wall Street - wife borrowed $200M non-recourse
34:17 HBS confronting Geithner - victory lap for corrupt 2008 bailouts
36:07 Changed shorting rules during crisis - got wiped out
41:22 Daniel Webster: inflation fertilizes rich man's field with poor man's sweat
42:50 WWI Liberty bonds first modern big print doubled prices
46:01 Next 10 years vision: Blue team 2028, hyperinflation by 2032
47:54 Michael Saylor for president 2032 - modern Thomas Jefferson
48:28 Why Bitcoin not gold? Better, digital age, hard to move gold
50:37 Bitcoin inequality concern - rich will spend it, plumbers get paid in it
52:59 Sound money means no more wars - governments can't afford them
54:12 Fix debt? It's in worthless dollars - we're out of debt
56:52 Decentralization saving us now
Thomas Thornton, founder and president of Hedge Fund Telemetry, returns to The Julia La Roche Show to discuss extreme market conditions with investors "all in, levered, and complacent." He argues we're at a blow-off top characterized by record call buying, leverage through ETFs, and a gambling mentality fueled by 0DTE options and sports betting culture.
Thornton highlights dangerous market mechanics: the Goldman Sachs most shorted basket is up 38% year-to-date, meaning short sellers have been squeezed out and won't provide natural buying support during corrections. He notes extreme concentration risk with 10 stocks comprising 40% of the S&P 500, and Nvidia alone responsible for 18% of market gains. Technical indicators show exhaustion signals while the market continues higher on narrowing breadth. Thornton identifies AI trade risks including slowing CapEx growth, insufficient power infrastructure, and water constraints for data centers. He rebuts bull arguments by comparing current conditions unfavorably to 2000, noting $38 trillion in debt versus $4 trillion then. He explains why the Fed can't save markets this time due to Treasury market dysfunction. Currently positioned net short with disciplined risk management, Thornton predicts people will look back on 2025 and say "the signs were so obvious." He advises investors to lower exposures and leverage, warning that opportunities will come when his indicators reach oversold levels and nobody wants to buy.
This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia
Links:
https://www.hedgefundtelemetry.com/
https://www.x.com/tommythornton
Timestamps:
0:00 - Introduction and welcome
1:02 - "People are all in, levered, and complacent" - Market positioning
3:43 - Gambling mentality and comparison to past market cycles
5:20 - How leverage and zero DTE options change market dynamics
7:39 - "Market correction or something worse" - What's ahead
7:52 - "I definitely think we're at a blow off top"
9:20 - Goldman Sachs most shorted basket and dangerous market mechanics
11:51 - Passive ETFs and leverage risk
12:46 - Market sentiment analysis with charts
14:13 - CNN Fear & Greed Index critique
15:30 - DeMark indicators flashing exhaustion signals
18:22 - Goldman Sachs most shorted basket technical breakdown
19:01 - Concentration risk: 10 stocks = 40% of S&P 500
21:28 - Call buying extremes and put/call ratios
23:23 - AI trade risks and CapEx spending concerns
25:42 - Energy and water constraints for AI data centers
30:28 - Market narrowing despite new highs
32:40 - Bull case rebuttal: Why this is different from 2000
34:48 - Why the Fed can't save the market this time
36:22 - Net short positioning and risk management strategy
39:44 - "The signs were so obvious" - How we'll remember 2025
41:35 - Long idea: Golar natural gas infrastructure play
44:28 - Hedge Fund Telemetry overview and parting advice
Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and Chief Strategist at QI Research, joins Julia La Roche in-studio following the Fed minutes. In this episode, DiMartino Booth highlights how the Fed quietly reclassified nearly $300 billion in loans on a Friday afternoon with no comment, shifting them from stodgy commercial categories into the "black box" of non-depository financial institution (NDFI) lending now totaling $1.7 trillion. She draws parallels to Enron as First Brands bankruptcy exposes what appeared to be an auto supplier was actually a financial using off-balance sheet vehicles, with subprime delinquency rates likely double reported figures. Elsewhere, Booth warns youth unemployment hit 1988 levels but from lack of demand not supply as companies blindly adopt AI without hiring, leaving the Class of 2025 worse off than 2024. She argues gold has become a "meme stock" with Wall Street firms' price targets signaling contrarian risk, while the government shutdown leaves the Fed "flying blind" without official data for their October 29th meeting.
Sponsors: Monetary Metals: https://monetary-metals.com/julia Links: Danielle's Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/dimartinobooth Substack: https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/ YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@DanielleDiMartinoBoothQIFed Up: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-Reserve/dp/0735211655
0:00 Hawkish Fed minutes - knife in Miran's back
1:44 Fed insider on Miran controversy
2:48 Did Fed want September cut?
5:08 Shutdown means Fed flying blind October
6:04 Gold and NASDAQ flying - unusual
7:03 Gold as meme stock - contrarian warning
9:50 NDFI loans - $1.7 trillion black box
12:21 $250B loan reclassification bombshell
13:14 Fed reclassified quietly on Friday
14:17 First brands like Enron revelation
16:21 Off balance sheet financing returns
18:25 Subprime delinquencies likely double
20:15 Is this systemic? Fed doesn't know
21:28 Fed won't move without official data
22:22 Challenger data horror at Fed
24:52 Charts need gray recession bars
25:12 Fed put born October 1987
27:32 Youth unemployment demand crisis
30:02 AI adoption without hiring
32:24 Parents worry kids made redundant
33:20 First five years determine career
35:48 Not sending kids to college
37:11 Put faces on repo statistics
38:47 Markets masking K economy
39:01 Lowercase i economy concept
Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst blog, explains why Americans remain uncomfortable with gold despite it hitting new highs - it implies dollar weakness after 150 years of reserve currency dominance. He reveals FDR seized the Federal Reserve's gold in 1933 with little compensation, while today US gold allocation sits under 1% of portfolios versus growing central bank accumulation. Whalen defends his call for earlier Fed cuts. He sees gold reaching $5,000+ by end of 2026 as US allocations shift from under 1% toward 2%, while warning the average person without assets continues getting screwed as the Fed will eventually monetize Treasury issuance through financial repression.
Sponsor:
Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia
Links:
Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen
Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/
The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/
Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673
Timestamps:
0:00 Welcome and introduction - Chris Whalen's first in-studio appearance
0:24 Julia's introduction highlighting Chris's credentials and analysis
1:16 Fed takeaway - Steve Miran only governor wanting 50bp cut
2:19 Housing emergency coming - Fed drove prices up, Trump faces constraint
2:31 Housing scenarios - mortgage rates retreating after quarter point
4:17 Monetary Metals ad read
5:34 Housing psychology - homeowners trying to sell at the top
6:53 Office space comparison - no longer premium asset class
7:38 Fed rate cut outlook - may not see more cuts for months
9:58 Bank balance sheet problems - mortgage securities underwater
10:54 Politics of inflation - housing affordability crisis
13:10 Viewer housing question response - Florida 1924 parallels
15:32 DC trip on GSEs - still no roadmap from Treasury
18:43 Fannie/Freddie trade - made 30% then got out
19:54 Taking profits
22:36 Watching the herd mentality
25:20 Dollar/deficit thesis - weaker dollar, Treasury pressure ahead
27:47 Fed restructuring vision - eliminate Board of Governors
31:09 Housing emergency declaration - resuming MBS purchases discussion
33:51 Mixed economy - wealthy vs bottom quartile struggling
34:34 Debt myths - Americans love inflation, debt is currency
36:18 Highest conviction trade - gold and strategic silver
Henrik Zeberg, head macro economist at SwissBlock and author of The Monetary House of Cards, presents his business cycle framework showing leading indicators crossed in November 2024 (Titanic hit iceberg), but imminent recession indicators haven't triggered yet (ship not sinking). He sees a final blow-off top with S&P potentially hitting 7,500 and NASDAQ 28,000 before a potential 50% crash that would still leave valuations at third-highest ever with market cap to GDP at unprecedented 220%. Zeberg warns gold is in a "mini bubble" front-running deflationary collapse and will decline when dollar bottoms, despite $35,000 long-term target. His most provocative thesis: after deflationary bust, Fed money printing will cause stagflation because "Mrs. Johnson" will hoard rate cut savings rather than spend, while Fed remains "way too late" using lagging indicators like "driving by looking in rear window."
Sponsors:
Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia
Links:
X: https://x.com/HenrikZeberg
Substack: https://henrikzeberg.substack.com/
Book: https://buy.stripe.com/aFacN62DQdYFbZt9APaR201
0:00 Welcome and introduction - Henrik Zeberg
1:13 Zeberg Business Cycle framework - four phases explained
3:28 Leading indicators crossed November 2024 - Titanic hit iceberg
5:43 Imminent recession indicators - credit spreads, yield spreads, initial claims
8:39 Markets don't lead - unemployment bottoms before stock market tops
13:52 Market cap to GDP at 220% - unprecedented bubble territory
16:08 Elliott Wave targets - S&P 7,500, NASDAQ 28,000 possible
18:40 Singapore index - canary in coal mine for global economy
19:17 Everything bubble explained - rate suppression distorted all valuations
22:44 Most dangerous when people don't recognize bubble
24:37 Fed micromanaging creates inefficient capital allocation
27:05 S&P could fall 50% to 3,350 and still be third highest valuation ever
29:59 Gold mini bubble - front-running deflationary collapse
32:54 Dollar bottom coming - gold decline ahead despite long-term bullishness
34:03 Own physical gold but don't buy more right now
37:05 Stagflation thesis - deflationary bust then high inflation
42:49 Mrs. Johnson won't spend rate cut savings - she'll hoard it
44:57 Fed way too late - rearranging deck chairs on Titanic
48:43 Housing affordability
51:01 Central bank hubris
53:55 Fed using lagging indicators - driving by looking in rear window
57:42 Peak euphoria warning - when it feels best, be most careful
Axel Merk, CIO and founder of Merk Investments with nearly $3 billion in AUM, shares his perspective on the current macro landscape and gold's surge to record highs. In this episode, Merk explains how "fringe" fiscal sustainability concerns have moved mainstream, driving gold to new highs above $3,700. He provides a gold mining primer, distinguishing between speculative junior miners and established producers, while focusing on developers with proven management teams as the "scarcest resource." Merk criticizes the Fed's evolution into micromanaging the economy through its "toolkit," arguing this creates inefficient capital allocation and enables political irresponsibility. He notes gold's correlation breakdown due to dollar weaponization and sees continued upside potential, though warns against overexposure, emphasizing that the best investment advice is to "invest in yourself" and control spending.
This episode is sponsored by Monetary Metals. Visit https://monetary-metals.com/julia
Links:
https://www.merkinvestments.com/
https://x.com/axelmerk
Timestamps:
0:00 Welcome and introduction - Axel Merk returns after 6 months
0:38 AUM growth from $2B to $3B reflects gold space interest
1:29 Liberation Day framework - tariffs impact financial flows
3:04 Fringe views moving mainstream amid elevated valuations
3:49 Long-term fiscal sustainability concerns driving gold investment
6:08 Fed micromanaging economy enables political irresponsibility
7:47 Gold's parabolic rise - perception vs reality of "barbarous relic"
10:23 Gold mining dynamics - junior miners haven't had explosive rally yet
13:10 Gold Mining 101 - conservative vs speculative investor profiles
15:23 Big miners' over/under-investment cycle post-financial crisis
17:19 Developer focus - scarcest resource is good management
18:31 Junior vs major miners - venture capitalists with hard hats
21:14 Gold correlation breakdown - weaponization changed dynamics
24:37 Fed micromanagement critique - toolkit means intervention
26:48 Inefficient capital allocation favors big companies
27:58 Preventing recessions vs natural business cycles
31:58 Gold as 20-year hedge - glad you had it in hindsight
32:32 Silver complexity - industrial use creates volatility
36:02 Investment advice - invest in yourself first, control spending
Michael Howell, CEO of CrossBorder Capital, an investment advisory firm, and author of Capital Wars, returns to The Julia La Roche Show, where he analyzes global liquidity trends and warns of market risks ahead.
Sponsor: This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia
In this episode, Howell presents his global liquidity cycle framework showing markets are late in a 35-month bull run that began in late 2022, with early warning signs emerging in repo markets as SOFR spreads spike. He warns of a massive debt refinancing wall hitting 2026-2029 from COVID-era borrowing, while the Fed transitions from QE to "Treasury QE" under Bessent's direction to fund real economy priorities. Howell's most striking thesis involves gold price targets of $10,000 by the late 2030s and $25,000 by 2052 based on structural deficit math, driven by both US monetary inflation and China's liquidity expansion to escape its debt crisis. He advocates for monetary inflation hedges like gold and Bitcoin as central banks deliberately weaken currencies in a "Make America Great" strategy against China.
Links:
Website: http://www.crossbordercapital.com/
Twitter/X https://x.com/crossbordercap
Substack: https://capitalwars.substack.com/
Book: https://www.amazon.com/Capital-Wars-Rise-Global-Liquidity/dp/3030392902
0:00 Welcome and introduction - Michael Howell returns to discuss markets
1:14 Global liquidity cycle framework - 5-6 year cycle approaching top
3:41 Late cycle positioning - thinking end game vs beginning
6:06 Debt-liquidity integration - 80% of lending now collateral-backed
8:46 Early warning signs - SOFR spreads and repo market tensions
11:49 Debt-liquidity ratio analysis - refinancing crisis ahead
14:15 COVID debt echo effect - massive refinancing wall 2026-2029
17:04 Fed balance sheet slowdown - similar to early 2022 conditions
18:51 Treasury QE emergence - Bessent directing liquidity to real economy
20:20 Stablecoin monetization - credit providers buying government debt
22:36 Plain vanilla cycle - everything following normal script
25:00 Asset allocation phases - rebound, calm, speculation, turbulence
29:20 Gold breakout analysis - disconnect from real rates since 2022
31:45 Structural deficit math - mandatory spending blowout ahead
33:42 Gold price targets - $10,000 by late 2030s, $25,000 by 2052
35:56 Monetary vs high street inflation - currency devaluation vs CPI
39:44 Fed independence questioned - Treasury QE running the show
41:51 Make America Great currency war - deliberate dollar weakening
44:08 China's gold strategy - escaping debt crisis through monetization
46:33 Chinese liquidity expansion - driving global commodity reflation
50:05 Final thoughts - late cycle caution, gold as monetary hedge
Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst blog, returns to the show for an in-person episode to recap the FOMC, discuss the state of the economy, housing, and his highest conviction ideas.
Sponsor:
Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia
Links:
Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen
Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/
The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/
Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673
Timestamps:
0:00 Welcome and introduction - Chris Whalen's first in-studio appearance
0:24 Julia's introduction highlighting Chris's credentials and analysis
1:16 Fed takeaway - Steve Miran only governor wanting 50bp cut
2:19 Housing emergency coming - Fed drove prices up, Trump faces constraint
2:31 Housing scenarios - mortgage rates retreating after quarter point
4:17 Monetary Metals ad read
5:34 Housing psychology - homeowners trying to sell at the top
6:53 Office space comparison - no longer premium asset class
7:38 Fed rate cut outlook - may not see more cuts for months
9:58 Bank balance sheet problems - mortgage securities underwater
10:54 Politics of inflation - housing affordability crisis
13:10 Viewer housing question response - Florida 1924 parallels
15:32 DC trip on GSEs - still no roadmap from Treasury
18:43 Fannie/Freddie trade - made 30% then got out
19:54 Taking profits
22:36 Watching the herd mentality
25:20 Dollar/deficit thesis - weaker dollar, Treasury pressure ahead
27:47 Fed restructuring vision - eliminate Board of Governors
31:09 Housing emergency declaration - resuming MBS purchases discussion
33:51 Mixed economy - wealthy vs bottom quartile struggling
34:34 Debt myths - Americans love inflation, debt is currency
36:18 Highest conviction trade - gold and strategic silver