Arctic Front and First Snowfall

The Chicago area is under a Winter Storm Watch for late Sunday night into Monday due to an Arctic front and lake-effect snow potential. Rain is expected Saturday evening, transitioning to snow overnight, with the heaviest snow likely from midnight to 8 a.m. Monday. (Or 10am). 

Temperatures will drop sharply, with highs in the 30s Sunday and Monday, and wind chills in the teens Monday morning.

Snowfall Amounts

Official forecasts from the National Weather Service (NWS) indicate 2–8 inches for Cook County, but localized totals could be higher (possibly double-digit amounts where intense bands set up). Some models suggest up to 15 inches in certain spots, though placement is uncertain.

Snowfall rates of 2–3 inches per hour are possible in the most intense bands. 

Lake Michigan Water Temperature

Lake Michigan surface water temperatures in early November typically range 45–52°F. But currently they are in low to mid 50s which is warm for this time of year.


Lake-Effect Snow Dynamics

Strong temperature contrasts between the lake and the 850 mb level (around 5,000 ft) are necessary for Lake-effect snow. It requires a difference of roughly 23°F or more. 

Northeast winds usually occur at the start of a storm for Chicago. This creates  enhanced lake-effect snow for Chicago. However for winds to be off the lake as a storm departs and Arctic air arrives is uncommon for Chicago. This is what causes lake effect snow. It's also uncommon for this to happen in November due to warm Lake changing precipitation to rain.


Buffalo 2022 Comparison

The Buffalo storm in November 2022 produced over 80 inches of snow in some areas, with snowfall rates up to 6 inches per hour and thundersnow. Comparing this event to that event is reasonable in terms of dynamics, though Chicago’s totals will be far lower.

Timing: Heaviest snow expected overnight Sunday into Monday morning, tapering by late morning Monday.
Wind Gusts: Up to 35 mph, causing blowing snow and reduced visibility.


Chicago: 8.6-9.8 inches
Cicero: 9.8 inches
Oak Lawn: 5.4 inches
Harvey: 6.4 inches
Tinley Park: 5.8 inches
Oswego: 0.3 inches
Plainfield: 0.8 inches
Wheaton: 1.5 inches
Schaumburg: 1.8 inches
Palatine:1.9 inches
Evanston 8.2

These totals are for 12 hour period from 10 pm Sunday night 11/9 to 10am Monday 11/10/25.
They assume a 10 to 1 snow to water ratio and follows the High resolution rapid refresh model as advertised on Windy.com
I used this computer model because it is high resolution which is essential for lake effect snow and seems to be better than the NAM model regarding lake effect snow events from. What I've seen.
It should be noted that while at times the snow to water ratio will be 10 to 1 due to warm Lake, but lake effect often takes on a powdery snow. Should snow to water ratio be double, then amounts could potentially be double whatever listed here in some spots.

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Summer heat overtakes the Midwest despite the fact that it's October. This wave of heat will last several days and will be followed by a cooler area of high pressure. Following the high pressure will be a return to another summer heat wave for much of the Midwest, but some of the Midwest may be right along the front seeing well above normal temperatures but not quite a heatwave. Either way rain will be limited during this holiday of succos, but there is a chance for rain Monday night and again Thursday night with minimal impacts. Temperature should remain within room temperature throughout most of the holiday but briefly dropping into the middle 50s for a couple nights in the mid part of the week. If temperatures do exceed 86° during the holiday it would occur towards the end. Until then - 86° heat or higher could be expected until the holiday starts.. this episode covers the most recent Midwest heatwave and covers some of the cities which received temperatures in the 90s for three consecutive days. Some say that this heat is connected to a marine Heat Wave taking place in the North Pacific.

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Alaskan hurricane, Summer heat in the midwest flooding in the desert Southwest, periods of rain and thunderstorms across the southeast and so much more is covered in this episode. This episode also covers the Succos holiday weather.

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Powerhouse Storm develops in the Gulf of Alaska. Late season heatwave overtakes the Midwest due to the remnants of a tropical storm over the Southeastern portions of the United states. This brings compressional warming into the midwest. We have a hurricane expected to become a major hurricane category 3 by the mid portions of next week. This hurricane may impact the coastal areas of the Eastern portions of the United States as early as Thursday October 2nd. What watches are in effect across the desert southwest. And a blast of heat may impact Israel a week from Sunday and the day before succos. This episode includes the forecast for the holiday of Succos, for Chicago and other nearby areas for the first several days. It's a general outlook.

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Focus on Jerusalem with a rare heatwave, rare showers, and most impressive humidity. Recorded August 13th 2025.

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Here's a chapter breakdown with timings:

• 0:00 - 1:08: Introduction: Intense Heat in Israel (Setting the stage with the unusual and dangerous heatwave)
• 1:09 - 2:11: Coastal Humidity: Tel Aviv and the Mediterranean (Focusing on the high dew points along the coast)
• 2:12 - 4:19: Jerusalem's Triple-Digit Heat and Humidity (Highlighting the rare combination of heat and humidity in Jerusalem)
• 4:20 - 5:22: Overnight Lows and the Dead Sea (Discussing the lack of nighttime relief and extreme conditions near the Dead Sea)
• 5:23 - 6:25: Dead Sea Extremes (Elaborating more on high humidity and temperatures near the Dead Sea)
• 6:26 - 7:27: Tel Aviv Forecast (Going back to Tel Aviv's conditions)
• 7:28 - 8:32: The Jerusalem Thunderstorm Mystery (Addressing the surprising and unlikely thunderstorm forecast)
• 8:33 - 9:50: Model Discrepancies and the Lack of Forecast Discussions (Discussing the differences between models and the information gap compared to the US)
• 9:51 - 11:58: Global Heat Hotspots: Las Vegas, Death Valley, and Baghdad (Shifting focus to other areas experiencing extreme heat)
• 11:59 - 14:09: Iran's Sizzling Heat and the Importance of Forecast Discussions (Highlighting the extreme temperatures in Iran and reiterating the value of forecast discussions)
• 14:09 - End: Conclusion and Impact (Concluding with a summary and the potential impact of the heatwave)

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Here is a table of contents summarizing the weather podcast, focusing on extreme weather events and conditions globally, with a special emphasis on heatwaves and high dew points, and ending with the songs that played in the background.

Chapter 1: Introduction and Extreme Heat in the Persian Gulf (00:08)
The podcast begins by highlighting extreme weather conditions, particularly the phenomenal dew points and wet bulb temperatures in the Persian Gulf, where dew points reach the upper 80s and wet bulb temperatures are expected to hit 90 degrees, potentially reaching the upper limits of human tolerance. Temperatures in Iran's Great Salt Desert are forecasted to soar, with surface temperatures possibly exceeding the official record due to a lack of weather stations. Shuster, Iran, is mentioned as a city where temperatures frequently reach the 130s, although official records may not reflect this due to the distance of the nearest weather station.

Chapter 2: Heat Dome in the US and High Dew Points (03:19)
The discussion shifts to a strengthening heat dome in the US Midwest and East Coast, with forecasts indicating it will intensify over the next two weeks. High dew points are noted not only in the Persian Gulf but also in the United States, especially around the Gulf of Mexico and the Midwest corn belt, creating swamp-like conditions. The air originates from the Gulf of Mexico, traveling over a thousand miles, and the corn belt enhances the humidity levels.

Chapter 3: Extreme Heat in Dubai and the Caspian Sea (04:28)
The podcast revisits the United Arab Emirates, focusing on Dubai, where temperatures remain consistently in the mid-90s, driven by high dew points leading to heat indices approaching 130. The conversation then turns to the Caspian Sea in Russia, where unusually high ocean water temperatures, similar to those in the Gulf of Mexico, lead to very humid conditions. The possibility of weather phenomena similar to Tornado Alley in the US occurring near the Caspian Sea is speculated due to the presence of both humid and dry air masses.

Chapter 4: Global Weather Observations and the Lack of Hurricanes in July (08:43)
The podcast notes intense warmth in the Arctic regions of northern Canada and Alaska, with temperatures expected to reach the 80s. Intense heat is also observed on the West Coast of the US, particularly on the eastern side of the Cascades. The lack of hurricanes in July, despite warm ocean temperatures, is attributed to the plume of Sahara dust that interferes with hurricane development.

Chapter 5: Heat Advisories and Closing Remarks (10:54)
Heat advisories are in effect across the northern states of the Midwest, with a large area of excessive heat warnings covering much of the Midwest and South Central states. The heat dome is expected to center over the mid-Atlantic area later in the week, bringing super hot weather. The podcast concludes with encouragement to stay healthy and hydrated.Chapter 6: Songs Played During the Podcast (12:30) The podcast concludes by identifying the songs played in the background, including "Journey through the Desert" by Trace Way, and several Blue Dot Sessions tracks such as "Skyway", "Borrow", "Molly Molly" and "Glass Beads", ending with a track listed as "L I T E 20, saturation 25".

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Major heat dome settles itself over the Midwest including the upper Midwest the Northeast Mid-Atlantic area and the Great lakes area for the next several days some places for the next two weeks. Extremely high humidity and temperatures well into the 90s and 100s could be expected area wide.

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108° in South Dakota This Thursday, 80° Dew Point in Tennessee this Saturday evening. Extreme humidity over spreads New York, Philadelphia and Baltimore as well. 79° dew point in Minneapolis. 102°F for Detroit. Major 6+ day heatwave in Chicago. Highs from 93° - 100°. Dew points 72° - 77°. Many other cities are included in heat wave. A 597 decimeter heat dome combined with marine heat wave is the scientific culprit. Hashem is real culprit.

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This episode discussed a rare atmospheric setup bringing record heat near the Arctic circle and rare nor'easter to East Coast. There is divrei hisor'e'rus at the end to accommodate the the 24/6 platform that this podcast is available on..

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107° - 111° yesterday in hottest parts of Israel. Some reports included a 115° reading. This week we prepare for yet again another multi-day severe weather outbreak in Midwest. St.Louis is included in this. As of Sunday evening May 18th a tornado watch and severe thunderstorm watch covered a very large portion of the plains.

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This is a weather trailer for "Weather With Enthusiasm"

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This episode grades the accuracy of yesterday's podcast, speaks about the severe weather outbreak potential for today and its location along with the most effective way to stay up to date and the importance of doing so. It discusses a little bit of the Divine along with an intense is really Heatwave expected to happen tomorrow this Shabbos. Happy Lag Ba'Omer! Enjoy!

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