Black Friday is three days away but there’s still time to tighten your strategy and avoid costly mistakes. In this episode of the podcast, the CTC team breaks down the 5 essential last-minute BFCM fixes every brand needs before the biggest weekend of the year.
Whether you're behind on creative, unsure about spend pacing, or just want to sanity-check your plan…this is the checklist that will save your BFCM.
What we cover:
Locking spend to aMER targets
Auditing & refreshing creative without producing anything new
Simplifying your offer across the entire customer journey
Operational readiness (don’t ruin a good sale!)
Hour-by-hour tracking & how to take action quickly
If you want a clean, no-nonsense guide to surviving Black Friday/Cyber Monday (and setting yourself up for your best one yet), this is the episode.
Show Notes:
In our first CFO Summit Taylor breaks down the Board, Budget, Bonus forecasting framework—CTC’s core system for building a clear, defensible, and aligned financial plan for 2026.This replay walks you through how high-performing ecommerce brands create scenario models that serve their board, their finance team, and their operators… all without losing focus during the busy BFCM season.In this replay, you’ll learn:-The 3 scenario model every CFO should build for 2026-How to anchor your plan in real data not hope or assumptions-Why most ecommerce forecasts break (and how to fix yours)-How new vs. returning customer trends shape next year’s revenue-How to connect your marketing calendar directly to your financial plan-Why forecasting succeeds or fails based on daily executionWhether you’re a founder, CFO, VP of Finance, or operator driving next year’s plan, this replay gives you the structure and clarity to build a forecast your board—and your team—can trust.Show Notes:The CFO Summit series brought to you by:
Meta’s new creative ranking systems are changing everything, and most brands have no idea how much it’s affecting their performance. In this episode, we break down exactly how Meta’s Black Box evaluates your ads, why your creatives are being grouped together, and why small variations (like hook swaps) no longer matter the way you think they do.
Our Guest today is Reza Khadjavi, CEO at Motion, the creative reporting platform trusted by top DTC brands.
What you’ll learn:
Why Meta sees one ad even when you upload ten
How Andromeda assigns “priors” to your creative
Why hook testing isn’t moving the needle anymore
How AI labeling is changing creative analysis
What creative diversity actually means to Meta
The end of growth hacking (and what comes next)
How to build a creative strategy that still works in a black box world
If your ads feel stuck, inconsistent, or unpredictable… This episode will explain why.
Show Notes:
How do you set the right ROAS target on Meta heading into Black Friday and Cyber Monday?
Most brands either guess… or use last month’s numbers and hope they hold.
But BFCM behaves nothing like a normal period and the attribution windows prove it.
In this episode, Tony and Steve walk through the real data behind Meta’s 7-day vs. 28-day click attribution, why value shifts dramatically in the weeks leading up to Black Friday, and how that should change your spend strategy right now.
You’ll learn:
How much value Meta under-reports in the 7-day window
Why pre-BFCM ad spend has a longer conversion tail
How to push your ROAS target lower without tanking efficiency
How incrementality testing plays into your spend ceiling
Why daily spending power spikes in early November—and how to use it
How to analyze YOUR 7-day vs 28-day attribution before BFCM
Show Notes:
Most ecommerce brands build one forecast — and that’s why most forecasts are wrong.
In this episode of the Podcast, Richard and Luke break down the 3-forecast model that every high-performing brand should use when planning for 2026: Board. Budget. Bonus.
You’ll learn:
Why every brand needs three forecasts, not one
How to balance short-term execution (Black Friday) with long-term planning (2026)
How to model different outcomes for your board, your operating budget, and your team goals
How to use tools like percentage-over-model and event effect modeling to make forecasts actually useful
If you’re leading growth, finance, or operations at a 7 to 9 figure brand, this episode will help you plan smarter, forecast with confidence, and build a roadmap that aligns your team from boardroom to bonus.
Get your 2026 forecast built with CTC’s Prophit System: https://commonthreadco.com/pages/prophit-system
Show Notes:
This episode is brought to you by Tie: meettie.comExplore the PROPHIT System: prophitsystem.com
Most brands are building their 2026 plan all wrong.
In this episode, Taylor breaks down why you can’t walk into the new year with one financial forecast — and why the smartest brands plan three: Board, Budget, and Bonus.
You’ll learn how to:
Build scenario plans that align finance and marketing
Forecast existing and new customer revenue with confidence
Connect your marketing calendar directly to your financial goals
Present a plan your board, your bank, and your team will actually believe in
Whether you’re a CMO, CEO, or founder planning for growth in 2026, this is your playbook for making smarter decisions before the year even starts.
Get your 2026 forecast built with CTC’s Prophit System: https://commonthreadco.com/pages/prophit-system
Bonus Offer (through Nov 11): Sign up now and get our Black Friday Cyber Monday Hourly Tracking Report — free.
Show Notes:
This episode is brought to you by Tie: meettie.comExplore the PROPHIT System: prophitsystem.com
Black Friday isn’t won by guessing, it’s won hour by hour.
In this episode of the Podcast, Richard and Luke break down how top DTC brands use real-time ad spend optimization to hit — and even exceed — their Black Friday and Cyber Monday targets.
You’ll learn how hourly tracking transforms decision making during the biggest shopping weekend of the year, plus:
How to spot pacing issues before it’s too late
When to scale ad spend versus pull back in real time
What hourly data reveals about buyer behavior on BFCM
Why last year’s patterns are your best forecasting tool for this year
Limited offer: Get a free Black Friday Hourly Tracking Report when you purchase a Prophit System, your full-year spend and forecasting model built by Common Thread Collective.
Show Notes:
This episode is brought to you by: Finaloop: https://get.finaloop.com/ecommerce-playbook-podcast/Explore the PROPHIT System: prophitsystem.com
After months of mixed signals, new data from the DTC Index shows ecommerce revenue is up 10% year over year — but consumer confidence is heading in the opposite direction.
In this episode, host Richard sits down with Steve, CTC’s Chief Data Scientist, to unpack what’s really happening in the numbers. They dig into the latest data from our DTC Index and Consumer Confidence Index, exploring:
Why returning customers are driving growth this fall
The strange disconnect between economic sentiment and spending behavior
How to use consumer confidence data to forecast your spending power
What this all means for your Black Friday and 2026 planning
If you’re an ecommerce operator or growth strategist trying to separate signal from noise this holiday season, this one’s for you.
Show Notes:
The Ecommerce Playbook mailbag is open — email us at podcast@commonthreadco.com to ask us any questions you might have
Want to stop guessing when to spend your Meta budget during Black Friday and Cyber Monday? This episode breaks down exactly how to plan your ad spend hour by hour so you can hit your revenue goals without wasting a single dollar.
Taylor Holiday and Luke Austin walk through the real data behind BFCM revenue flow, showing when sales actually spike, when performance dips, and how top DTC brands use hourly pacing to stay ahead. You’ll learn how to:
Map your ad spend across Thanksgiving → Cyber Monday
Read the “horseshoe” pattern of revenue flow
Avoid early-morning panic when your ROAS looks bad
Set hourly targets using the Prophit System models
Course-correct in real time to hit your daily goals
Whether you’re managing a seven-figure Meta account or running your first big BFCM campaign, this framework will help you build a smarter plan — not just react to dashboards.
Show Notes:
Ready to solve your influencer strategy? Book Your Strategy Demo at https://www.getsaral.com/demoExplore the PROPHIT System: prophitsystem.com
This is a special Friday episode feature of CTC's DTC Hotline:
Most brands talk about hitting their Q4 goals — but few have a system to identify and close revenue gaps before they happen.
In this episode of The DTC Hotline, Tony, Luke, and Richard break down how to spot and fill revenue shortfalls during the holidays, using the same daily frameworks CTC applies across top DTC brands.
They’ll walk through:
If you’ve ever wondered how to turn missed forecasts into closed gaps — this episode is your blueprint.
Call or text the DTC Hotline: 866-DTC-2263 (866-382-2263)
Ask your burning eComm questions and we might answer them live on air.
Show Notes:
Whether you’re running paid ads on Meta, Google, or TikTok, FERMÀT can help you increase your conversion rates without touching your website.
https://www.fermatcommerce.com/ctc
Explore the Prophit System:
The DTC Hotline mailbag is open — email us at podcast@commonthreadco.com to ask your eCom questions.
In this special episode of the Random Show, Taylor Holiday and Andrew Faris unpack a wide-ranging conversation—from AI’s potential to predict creative performance before launch, to the messy truth about equity splits, competition, and why most brands misunderstand “growth.”
They debate:
Whether LLMs could replace creative testing entirely
How to design equity partnerships that actually reflect value
Why cloning someone else’s playbook rarely creates monopoly outcomes
The real incentives behind Meta’s “CPM psyop”
And why “growth is the CEO’s job” isn’t just a slogan—it’s an organizational design principle
This is a deep dive into how systems, incentives, and creativity intersect to drive (or stall) profit growth.
Show Notes:
Ready to solve your influencer strategy? Book Your Strategy Demo at https://www.getsaral.com/demo
Head to https://www.portless.com today to get your free quote, and see how direct fulfillment can transform your business.
Explore the Prophit System: https://www.prophitsystem.com
The Ecommerce Playbook mailbag is open — email us at podcast@commonthreadco.com to ask us any questions you might have about the world of eCom
He left JP Morgan to build a sock brand and it worked.
In this episode of podcast, Taylor sits down with Daniel Shim, founder of Ondo, the DTC brand reinventing no-show socks. They dig into how a finance background helped build a profitable ecommerce business, what it takes to stand out in a crowded category, and why growth isn’t just about scale — it’s about discipline.
You’ll Learn
How a banker turned founder built Ondo from scratch
The product insight that made no-show socks work
What it takes to scale profitably in 2025
Lessons from COVID era growth to now
Subscribe for more real stories of founders building smarter, not just bigger.
Show Notes:
Head to portless.com today to get your free quote, and see how direct fulfillment can transform your business.Explore the PROPHIT System: prophitsystem.com
Most brands treat retention and acquisition as separate strategies and that’s the problem. In this episode, we reveal why retention actually begins at acquisition and how understanding your customer lifecycle from day zero can unlock massive LTV growth.
Josh Tay joins Richard to unpack how our Global Accelerator program integrates growth and lifecycle strategy into one unified system. From front-loading LTV to designing retention programs that fuel acquisition, this conversation shows how the best brands build for long-term profitability — not just quick wins.
You’ll learn:
Why most retention strategies fail before the first purchase
How to connect your acquisition data to lifecycle marketing
Real examples of how integrated retention drives profitability
The retention frameworks used inside CTC’s Global Accelerator program
If you’re a 7- or early-8-figure brand looking to increase repeat revenue, this one’s for you.
Show Notes:
Head to portless.com today to get your free quote, and see how direct fulfillment can transform your business.Explore the PROPHIT System: prophitsystem.com
Learn more about the Global Accelerator: commonthreadco.com/accelerator
In this episode of the podcast, Taylor and Luke take you inside the system Common Thread Collective has built to define what modern media management really looks like in 2025.
Media buying has evolved - incrementality, experimentation, MMM, and FP&A can’t live in silos anymore. Taylor and Luke break down how to turn these complex ideas into one cohesive, profit-first workflow that drives real business results.
You’ll learn:
Why data integrity is the foundation of profitable decision-making
How to set smarter budgets with the Spending Power Model
How to allocate across channels using incrementality benchmarks
How to operationalize measurement, testing, and optimization in one system
Why IRoAS > ROAS (and how to make that shift inside your team)
This is the exact system CTC uses to manage media for hundreds of DTC brands..
Show Notes:
Head to portless.com today to get your free quote, and see how direct fulfillment can transform your business.Explore the PROPHIT System: prophitsystem.com
Read the blog: https://commonthreadco.com/blogs/coachs-corner/building-useful-measurements-for-profitability
Stop guessing — start scaling.
In this episode of Podcast, Richard and Luke break down how one eight-figure brand completely rewrote its Q4 plan using the Profit System’s Spend Power Model and Creative Demand Model.
You’ll see exactly how reallocating ad spend, optimizing contribution margin, and forecasting creative volume can unlock immediate profit gains in the next 30 days — without guessing or overspending.
What you’ll learn:
How to identify overspending using the Spend Power Model
Why cutting ad spend can increase contribution margin
How to forecast creative volume with the Creative Demand Model
The immediate actions to take for Q4 profitability
How one brand uncovered $400K in incremental profit
Whether you’re planning your Q4 media budget or mapping your 2026 growth strategy, this episode gives you the playbook for winning with data, not intuition..
Show Notes:
Head to portless.com today to get your free quote, and see how direct fulfillment can transform your business.Explore the PROPHIT System: prophitsystem.com
Most brands blow their Q4 creator budget on one thing: holiday only content. In this episode of thPodcast, Richard sits down with Adrianne, Director of Creator Content, to break down why that’s a mistake and what to do instead.
Learn CTC’s full framework for sourcing and scaling creator content that actually performs through Q4 and beyond. From building evergreen briefs to managing creator timelines, Adrianne walks through the exact checklist, examples, and ad structures her team uses to keep pipelines full, ads optimized, and budgets profitable.
What you’ll learn:
Why holiday focused UGC is a budget trap
How to build evergreen creator briefs that scale
The ideal timeline for sourcing, editing, and launching UGC in Q4
The one still image format that outperformed every video
How to repurpose creator content across Meta, TikTok, Pinterest & more
Show Notes:
As Q4 kicks off, one of the biggest levers brands can pull is their offer strategy. In this episode, Richard Gaffin (Director of Digital Product Strategy) and Taylor Holiday (CEO) break down how to design offers that maximize both new customer acquisition and retention during Black Friday/Cyber Monday.
They walk through insights from CTC’s Black Friday/Cyber Monday Offer Database—a collection of 679+ offers from top eComm brands—and explain how to tailor messaging across channels like paid social, email, and SMS.
You’ll learn:
Why BFCM is the biggest new customer acquisition moment of the year
How to balance broad sitewide discounts with segmented offers for VIPs or inventory clearance
The trade-offs between discount depth, inventory availability, and timing across the holiday season
Common pitfalls brands face (like over/under-spending and missing the true margin math)
Why transparency about your actual market position matters when setting offer expectations
If you want to build an offer strategy that actually maps to your numbers—and not just guesswork—this episode will get you there.
Show Notes:
Go to https://bit.ly/4mFOWa1 to get 20% off your first 3 months of Omnisend with code CTC20.
Join over 15,000 merchants protecting their revenue with Chargeflow. Use our promo code CF30 and start saving money, time, and sanity today: https://app.chargeflow.io/auth/sign-in?utm_source=ctc+hotline%2C+podcast&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=CTC+Hotline+%26+Chargeflow&utm_id=CTC+Hotline
Explore the PROPHIT System: prophitsystem.com
The Ecommerce Playbook mailbag is open — email us at podcast@commonthreadco.com to ask us any questions you might have about the world of eCom
In this special episode, we share Taylor Holiday’s keynote from Stord’s Summit.
He unpacks the four eras of DTC—COVID’s boom, the lean “Ozempic era,” and what he calls the “Flow Era.” Drawing from CTC’s dataset, client stories, and industry benchmarks, Taylor explains why 2025 could mark the strongest period in DTC history.
You’ll learn:
Why the excess of capital and demand during COVID was both logical and unsustainable.
How the “Ozempic era” forced brands to get lean—and why that was necessary for survival.
The financial mechanics that quietly cap growth when brands self-fund.
How product-led growth, compelling stories, and supplier financing separate the winners.
Why natural selection in e-commerce has created a stronger species of brands ready for what’s next.
If you want a clear picture of how we got here—and why the brands that remain are better positioned than ever—this keynote is essential listening.
Show Notes:
Ready to stop gambling on unreliable contractors?
Check out AllStars and Book Your Strategy Call:
https://www.hireallstars.com/contact
Explore the Prophit System:
https://www.prophitsystem.com
The Ecommerce Playbook mailbag is open — email us at podcast@commonthreadco.com to ask us any questions you might have about the world of eCom.
In this episode of the E-Commerce Playbook, Taylor Holiday and Richard Gaffin dig into the Measurement Roadmap—CTC’s framework for deciding what to test, when to test it, and why it matters. They unpack why incrementality testing is so crucial, the massive swings it can reveal in platform reporting, and how brands can use repeated tests to progressively “shrink the error bars” around decision-making.
From Meta’s 20% under-reporting benchmark to surprising Amazon lift results, Taylor shares concrete examples of how measurement gaps can change behavior, creative strategy, and even channel prioritization. The conversation highlights a hard but liberating truth: marketers don’t need perfect certainty—they need enough clarity to make confident decisions anchored in contribution margin.
Show Notes:
Ready to stop gambling on unreliable contractors? Check out AllStars and Book Your Strategy Call: https://www.hireallstars.com/contact
Explore the Prophit System: https://www.prophitsystem.com
Most brands rush into new ad platforms before they’re ready. In this episode, Richard and Tony break down why channel expansion is less about “good or bad” and more about timing and fuel.
They revisit the core sequence—master Meta, then Google—before adding channels like Snapchat, TikTok, YouTube, or Pinterest. And they go deep on why CTC is bullish on AppLovin, the mobile gaming ad platform that’s driving genuinely incremental growth for select brands.
You’ll learn:
The prerequisites for channel expansion (creative system + incrementality measurement)
How AppLovin differs from Meta & Google—and why it’s working now
The scale opportunity CTC sees as the platform opens up Oct 1
Why CTC approaches channels as investments, not experiments
If you’ve nailed your core channels and want to know when (and how) to expand, this episode is your playbook.
Show Notes:
Ready to solve your influencer strategy? Book Your Strategy Demo at https://www.getsaral.com/demo
Explore the Prophit System: https://www.prophitsystem.com
The Ecommerce Playbook mailbag is open — email us at podcast@commonthreadco.com to ask us any questions you might have about the world of eCom