Meta’s Andromeda algorithm didn’t just tweak performance it rewired how ads are delivered, scaled, and rewarded.
In this episode of the Podcast, we break down insights from 53,000 ads, 147 brands, and $14.5M in BFCM spend to show how Meta now evaluates creative, bidding strategies, and content formats in a post-auction, AI-driven system.
You’ll learn:
Why creative volume exploded — and why it’s now required to scale
How different bid strategies attract fundamentally different customers
Why video absorbs spend more efficiently than static ads
What makes UGC ads more likely to become high-spend winners
How promo vs evergreen ads actually perform under Andromeda
This isn’t theory or platform guidance — it’s real performance data from Cyber Five, unpacked to help brands understand what Meta rewards now and how to adapt heading into 2026.
If you’re scaling paid media and trying to keep up with Meta’s shift from auctions to content delivery, this episode breaks down what changed — and what to do next.
Show Notes:
TaxCloud has you covered: https://taxcloud.com/thread/
Explore the PROPHIT System: http://prophitsystem.com
Presented by:Fulfil : https://bit.ly/3KNjCYJTaxCloud: https://bit.ly/49mKdnRChargeflow: https://bit.ly/49mKfvZYou'll learn how to...
-Connect marketing actions to financial outcomes-Combine qualitative planning with quantitative modeling-Create alignment across your finance and marketing teamsGet our system: https://commonthreadco.com/pages/contact
The holiday shipping cutoff doesn’t end the year. It flips the calendar into Q5 — the six-week window where intent spikes, CPMs collapse, and the best customer cohorts of the year are born.
In this episode of the Podcast, we break down why Q5 is the Super Bowl for health & wellness brands and how operators should think about acquisition, offers, and retention heading into January.
Joining the conversation:
Dean Brennan, CEO of Heart & Soil
Dave Huffman, Co-Founder of Fifth Hammer
Together, we unpack:
Why Q5 is an identity-change moment and why that matters for conversion
The December 23 CPM floor and how media economics reset overnight
Volume vs. efficiency: when it makes sense to scale CAC in Q5
Community-led challenges vs. frictionless acquisition models
Why most growth comes from light buyers, not superfans
How January cohorts outperform the rest of the year in LTV
The “acquire + harvest” strategy that carries brands through all 12 months
If you’re a founder or marketer in supplements, health, beauty, or subscription ecommerce, this episode is your reminder that the year isn’t won in Q4 — it’s won in Q5.
Show Notes:
TaxCloud has you covered: https://taxcloud.com/thread/
Explore the PROPHIT System: http://prophitsystem.com
In this episode of the Podcast, Richard and Luke break down the uncomfortable truth most brands ignore: your marketing calendar not your spreadsheet—is the real driver of revenue. We walk through why forecasts consistently miss, how spending power actually shifts month to month, and the system top DTC brands use to tie marketing actions directly to revenue outcomes.
You’ll learn how to:
Build forecasts rooted in real marketing behavior
Use spending power and event effect models to predict revenue accurately
Diagnose why actuals diverge from plan (and what actions to take next)
Align finance and marketing so both teams finally speak the same language
If you want predictable revenue, tighter forecasts, and a clearer view of how marketing really moves the business, this episode is your blueprint.
Show Notes:
TaxCloud has you covered: https://taxcloud.com/thread/
Explore the PROPHIT System: http://prophitsystem.com
In this episode, Taylor and Joy break down the real 2026 playbook for 7-figure ecommerce brands, and why copying 9-figure operators is one of the biggest mistakes you can make.
Coming off BFCM, they unpack what actually happened for small brands and what it signals heading into the new year.
You’ll learn:
How to create “four peaks a month” using trends, cultural moments, and audience overlaps
Why forecasting is an execution system not a prediction tool
How aMER becomes your most reliable metric at the 7-figure stage
The traps that stall growth (SKU bloat, premature channel expansion, bad benchmarks)
What separates the 7-figure brands that scale from the ones that don’t
If you’re aiming to reach 8 figures in 2026, this episode outlines the roadmap.
Plus: How CTC’s Profit System and Global Accelerator help founders build predictable, scalable growth.
Show Notes:
How do high-performing ecommerce brands turn campaigns into predictable cash flow?
In this episode, we break down the exact forecasting process we use at Common Thread Collective to consistently land within 0–10% of goal across dozens of brands.
Growth Strategy Manager Brian Sakansky joins Richard to unpack how CTC builds forecasts, operationalizes them, and uses daily expectations to make real-time decisions that drive revenue and contribution margin.
You’ll learn:
Why most forecasts fail—and how to fix yours
How CTC turns marketing calendars into financial plans
The daily system our team uses to hit targets with confidence
How to identify the “real” problem in your data (AOV, CAC, CVR, etc.)
The contingency planning that keeps brands on track when things go sideways
How smaller operators can build this same process with nothing more than a spreadsheet
If you want forecasting to be more than a spreadsheet…
If you want it to actually guide your decisions…
And if you want to turn campaigns into reliable cash flow…
Show Notes:
Start your free trial now at https://bit.ly/4isWjjqExplore the PROPHIT System: http://prophitsystem.com
In this episode of the Podcast, we break down the real story of BFCM 2025—from forecasting accuracy to media buying chaos, offer pivots, AppLovin’s breakout performance, and what this year’s results say about the broader consumer economy.
Richard and Taylor walk through:
The full BFCM data recap: +7% total revenue, +10% new customers, +13% contribution margin
Why Saturday became the surprise winner of the weekend
AppLovin outperforming expectations by 100%+
Meta delivery volatility, and why it’s part of the game
Tactical offer changes that saved entire BFCM weekends
The rise of BNPL and concerning consumer financial behavior
What this all means for 2026 planning
If you’re preparing for the year ahead, this episode breaks down the numbers, the lessons, and the trends shaping how brands should think about forecasting, spending, and customer acquisition going into 2026.
Show Notes:
Start your free trial now at https://bit.ly/4isWjjq
Explore the PROPHIT System: http://prophitsystem.com
Black Friday is three days away but there’s still time to tighten your strategy and avoid costly mistakes. In this episode of the podcast, the CTC team breaks down the 5 essential last-minute BFCM fixes every brand needs before the biggest weekend of the year.
Whether you're behind on creative, unsure about spend pacing, or just want to sanity-check your plan…this is the checklist that will save your BFCM.
What we cover:
Locking spend to aMER targets
Auditing & refreshing creative without producing anything new
Simplifying your offer across the entire customer journey
Operational readiness (don’t ruin a good sale!)
Hour-by-hour tracking & how to take action quickly
If you want a clean, no-nonsense guide to surviving Black Friday/Cyber Monday (and setting yourself up for your best one yet), this is the episode.
Show Notes:
In our first CFO Summit Taylor breaks down the Board, Budget, Bonus forecasting framework—CTC’s core system for building a clear, defensible, and aligned financial plan for 2026.This replay walks you through how high-performing ecommerce brands create scenario models that serve their board, their finance team, and their operators… all without losing focus during the busy BFCM season.In this replay, you’ll learn:-The 3 scenario model every CFO should build for 2026-How to anchor your plan in real data not hope or assumptions-Why most ecommerce forecasts break (and how to fix yours)-How new vs. returning customer trends shape next year’s revenue-How to connect your marketing calendar directly to your financial plan-Why forecasting succeeds or fails based on daily executionWhether you’re a founder, CFO, VP of Finance, or operator driving next year’s plan, this replay gives you the structure and clarity to build a forecast your board—and your team—can trust.Show Notes:The CFO Summit series brought to you by:
Meta’s new creative ranking systems are changing everything, and most brands have no idea how much it’s affecting their performance. In this episode, we break down exactly how Meta’s Black Box evaluates your ads, why your creatives are being grouped together, and why small variations (like hook swaps) no longer matter the way you think they do.
Our Guest today is Reza Khadjavi, CEO at Motion, the creative reporting platform trusted by top DTC brands.
What you’ll learn:
Why Meta sees one ad even when you upload ten
How Andromeda assigns “priors” to your creative
Why hook testing isn’t moving the needle anymore
How AI labeling is changing creative analysis
What creative diversity actually means to Meta
The end of growth hacking (and what comes next)
How to build a creative strategy that still works in a black box world
If your ads feel stuck, inconsistent, or unpredictable… This episode will explain why.
Show Notes:
How do you set the right ROAS target on Meta heading into Black Friday and Cyber Monday?
Most brands either guess… or use last month’s numbers and hope they hold.
But BFCM behaves nothing like a normal period and the attribution windows prove it.
In this episode, Tony and Steve walk through the real data behind Meta’s 7-day vs. 28-day click attribution, why value shifts dramatically in the weeks leading up to Black Friday, and how that should change your spend strategy right now.
You’ll learn:
How much value Meta under-reports in the 7-day window
Why pre-BFCM ad spend has a longer conversion tail
How to push your ROAS target lower without tanking efficiency
How incrementality testing plays into your spend ceiling
Why daily spending power spikes in early November—and how to use it
How to analyze YOUR 7-day vs 28-day attribution before BFCM
Show Notes:
Most ecommerce brands build one forecast — and that’s why most forecasts are wrong.
In this episode of the Podcast, Richard and Luke break down the 3-forecast model that every high-performing brand should use when planning for 2026: Board. Budget. Bonus.
You’ll learn:
Why every brand needs three forecasts, not one
How to balance short-term execution (Black Friday) with long-term planning (2026)
How to model different outcomes for your board, your operating budget, and your team goals
How to use tools like percentage-over-model and event effect modeling to make forecasts actually useful
If you’re leading growth, finance, or operations at a 7 to 9 figure brand, this episode will help you plan smarter, forecast with confidence, and build a roadmap that aligns your team from boardroom to bonus.
Get your 2026 forecast built with CTC’s Prophit System: https://commonthreadco.com/pages/prophit-system
Show Notes:
This episode is brought to you by Tie: meettie.comExplore the PROPHIT System: prophitsystem.com
Most brands are building their 2026 plan all wrong.
In this episode, Taylor breaks down why you can’t walk into the new year with one financial forecast — and why the smartest brands plan three: Board, Budget, and Bonus.
You’ll learn how to:
Build scenario plans that align finance and marketing
Forecast existing and new customer revenue with confidence
Connect your marketing calendar directly to your financial goals
Present a plan your board, your bank, and your team will actually believe in
Whether you’re a CMO, CEO, or founder planning for growth in 2026, this is your playbook for making smarter decisions before the year even starts.
Get your 2026 forecast built with CTC’s Prophit System: https://commonthreadco.com/pages/prophit-system
Bonus Offer (through Nov 11): Sign up now and get our Black Friday Cyber Monday Hourly Tracking Report — free.
Show Notes:
This episode is brought to you by Tie: meettie.comExplore the PROPHIT System: prophitsystem.com
Black Friday isn’t won by guessing, it’s won hour by hour.
In this episode of the Podcast, Richard and Luke break down how top DTC brands use real-time ad spend optimization to hit — and even exceed — their Black Friday and Cyber Monday targets.
You’ll learn how hourly tracking transforms decision making during the biggest shopping weekend of the year, plus:
How to spot pacing issues before it’s too late
When to scale ad spend versus pull back in real time
What hourly data reveals about buyer behavior on BFCM
Why last year’s patterns are your best forecasting tool for this year
Limited offer: Get a free Black Friday Hourly Tracking Report when you purchase a Prophit System, your full-year spend and forecasting model built by Common Thread Collective.
Show Notes:
This episode is brought to you by: Finaloop: https://get.finaloop.com/ecommerce-playbook-podcast/Explore the PROPHIT System: prophitsystem.com
After months of mixed signals, new data from the DTC Index shows ecommerce revenue is up 10% year over year — but consumer confidence is heading in the opposite direction.
In this episode, host Richard sits down with Steve, CTC’s Chief Data Scientist, to unpack what’s really happening in the numbers. They dig into the latest data from our DTC Index and Consumer Confidence Index, exploring:
Why returning customers are driving growth this fall
The strange disconnect between economic sentiment and spending behavior
How to use consumer confidence data to forecast your spending power
What this all means for your Black Friday and 2026 planning
If you’re an ecommerce operator or growth strategist trying to separate signal from noise this holiday season, this one’s for you.
Show Notes:
The Ecommerce Playbook mailbag is open — email us at podcast@commonthreadco.com to ask us any questions you might have
Want to stop guessing when to spend your Meta budget during Black Friday and Cyber Monday? This episode breaks down exactly how to plan your ad spend hour by hour so you can hit your revenue goals without wasting a single dollar.
Taylor Holiday and Luke Austin walk through the real data behind BFCM revenue flow, showing when sales actually spike, when performance dips, and how top DTC brands use hourly pacing to stay ahead. You’ll learn how to:
Map your ad spend across Thanksgiving → Cyber Monday
Read the “horseshoe” pattern of revenue flow
Avoid early-morning panic when your ROAS looks bad
Set hourly targets using the Prophit System models
Course-correct in real time to hit your daily goals
Whether you’re managing a seven-figure Meta account or running your first big BFCM campaign, this framework will help you build a smarter plan — not just react to dashboards.
Show Notes:
Ready to solve your influencer strategy? Book Your Strategy Demo at https://www.getsaral.com/demoExplore the PROPHIT System: prophitsystem.com
This is a special Friday episode feature of CTC's DTC Hotline:
Most brands talk about hitting their Q4 goals — but few have a system to identify and close revenue gaps before they happen.
In this episode of The DTC Hotline, Tony, Luke, and Richard break down how to spot and fill revenue shortfalls during the holidays, using the same daily frameworks CTC applies across top DTC brands.
They’ll walk through:
If you’ve ever wondered how to turn missed forecasts into closed gaps — this episode is your blueprint.
Call or text the DTC Hotline: 866-DTC-2263 (866-382-2263)
Ask your burning eComm questions and we might answer them live on air.
Show Notes:
Whether you’re running paid ads on Meta, Google, or TikTok, FERMÀT can help you increase your conversion rates without touching your website.
https://www.fermatcommerce.com/ctc
Explore the Prophit System:
The DTC Hotline mailbag is open — email us at podcast@commonthreadco.com to ask your eCom questions.
In this special episode of the Random Show, Taylor Holiday and Andrew Faris unpack a wide-ranging conversation—from AI’s potential to predict creative performance before launch, to the messy truth about equity splits, competition, and why most brands misunderstand “growth.”
They debate:
Whether LLMs could replace creative testing entirely
How to design equity partnerships that actually reflect value
Why cloning someone else’s playbook rarely creates monopoly outcomes
The real incentives behind Meta’s “CPM psyop”
And why “growth is the CEO’s job” isn’t just a slogan—it’s an organizational design principle
This is a deep dive into how systems, incentives, and creativity intersect to drive (or stall) profit growth.
Show Notes:
Ready to solve your influencer strategy? Book Your Strategy Demo at https://www.getsaral.com/demo
Head to https://www.portless.com today to get your free quote, and see how direct fulfillment can transform your business.
Explore the Prophit System: https://www.prophitsystem.com
The Ecommerce Playbook mailbag is open — email us at podcast@commonthreadco.com to ask us any questions you might have about the world of eCom
He left JP Morgan to build a sock brand and it worked.
In this episode of podcast, Taylor sits down with Daniel Shim, founder of Ondo, the DTC brand reinventing no-show socks. They dig into how a finance background helped build a profitable ecommerce business, what it takes to stand out in a crowded category, and why growth isn’t just about scale — it’s about discipline.
You’ll Learn
How a banker turned founder built Ondo from scratch
The product insight that made no-show socks work
What it takes to scale profitably in 2025
Lessons from COVID era growth to now
Subscribe for more real stories of founders building smarter, not just bigger.
Show Notes:
Head to portless.com today to get your free quote, and see how direct fulfillment can transform your business.Explore the PROPHIT System: prophitsystem.com
Most brands treat retention and acquisition as separate strategies and that’s the problem. In this episode, we reveal why retention actually begins at acquisition and how understanding your customer lifecycle from day zero can unlock massive LTV growth.
Josh Tay joins Richard to unpack how our Global Accelerator program integrates growth and lifecycle strategy into one unified system. From front-loading LTV to designing retention programs that fuel acquisition, this conversation shows how the best brands build for long-term profitability — not just quick wins.
You’ll learn:
Why most retention strategies fail before the first purchase
How to connect your acquisition data to lifecycle marketing
Real examples of how integrated retention drives profitability
The retention frameworks used inside CTC’s Global Accelerator program
If you’re a 7- or early-8-figure brand looking to increase repeat revenue, this one’s for you.
Show Notes:
Head to portless.com today to get your free quote, and see how direct fulfillment can transform your business.Explore the PROPHIT System: prophitsystem.com
Learn more about the Global Accelerator: commonthreadco.com/accelerator