In this special post-election episode of inFocus with David Coletto, David breaks down the surprising results of Canada’s 45th general election. Just three months after entering politics, Mark Carney has led the Liberals to a fourth consecutive mandate—this time as a minority government—defeating Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives in a much tighter race than expected. David reflects on how the campaign was shaped by two competing ballot questions—change vs. Trump—and explains why voters ultimately chose stability over disruption. He offers behind-the-scenes insights from Abacus Data’s tracking, final polling, and what we got right (and where we’ll be looking to improve). Plus, he previews what’s next, including a major post-election survey launching this week and an upcoming event at the Empire Club in Toronto. If you want to understand what happened, why it happened, and what it means for Canada’s political future—this is the episode for you.

Tomorrow, Canadians head to the polls after a 40-day campaign that turned the political landscape upside down. In this special election preview episode of inFocus with David Coletto, David breaks down Abacus Data’s final poll results, offering insights into how the race shifted from a likely Conservative win to a competitive contest now favouring the Liberals under Mark Carney. David explores the emotional undercurrents driving voter decisions, the key ballot questions around change and stability, the leaders' brands as the campaign ends, and what the final vote estimates suggest. He also highlights the critical role turnout could play — and why a late Conservative surge, while unlikely, can’t be entirely ruled out. If you want a clear, data-driven snapshot of where things stand heading into Election Day, this episode will get you ready for the results to come.

With just days left before Canadians head to the polls, David Coletto breaks down the latest Abacus Data polling and what it tells us about where the 2025 federal election stands. In this episode of inFocus with David Coletto, David unpacks why the Liberals continue to hold a modest lead over the Conservatives, despite a strong public desire for change. He explores how Mark Carney’s personal appeal, regional vote strength, and the shifting ballot question—from Trump to affordability—are shaping the campaign’s final stretch. David also shares insights on what impact, if any, the leaders’ debates had, and what to watch for in the closing days of the campaign. If you want a quick, data-driven pulse check on the election—and what’s really motivating Canadian voters—this episode is for you. Listen now to understand where things stand, why the Liberals remain the favourites, and what could still shift in the days ahead.

In this episode of inFocus, David Coletto unpacks one of the most surprising shifts of the 2025 federal election: how fear of disruption—what he calls disruptophobia—has flipped the campaign narrative on its head. What began as a change election defined by frustration with the Liberals has become a search for stability in an uncertain world. David explains how Mark Carney’s rise, Donald Trump’s return to the White House, and growing public anxiety about global chaos have reframed the ballot question. Drawing on fresh data from Abacus Data, he explores how the desire for reassurance, not revolution, is driving voter behaviour—and why Carney now leads in most polls. If you want to understand what’s really going on beneath the surface of this campaign, and why Canadians may be choosing the lower-risk option rather than the loudest voice, this is an episode you won’t want to miss.

With less than two weeks to go until Election Day, the latest Abacus Data poll finds the federal race tightening. In this episode of inFocus with David Coletto, David unpacks the key findings from a new survey conducted just ahead of the French and English leaders’ debates. He explores why the Liberal lead has shrunk from six to just two points, how a resurgence in the desire for change is benefiting Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives, and what issues are driving voter decisions now. Cost of living is back on top, while Trump’s influence on the campaign appears to be fading. David also breaks down regional dynamics, leadership impressions, and what tonight’s and tomorrow’s debates could mean for the trajectory of the race. With advance voting starting this weekend and Canadians paying close attention, this episode offers a timely snapshot of where things stand—and what to watch for next.

In this episode of inFocus with David Coletto, we explore the dramatic collapse in support for the NDP in the 2025 federal election. Based on our latest Abacus Data survey, the NDP has seen its committed vote plummet from around 18% to just 9%. We dive into the reasons behind this significant shift, examining the two key groups of voters—those still loyal to the NDP and those who are now voting Liberal instead. David Coletto discusses the political context driving these changes, including the rise of Mark Carney as a stabilizing force for many progressive voters, and the role of strategic voting in this high-stakes election. With fears of a Conservative government under Pierre Poilievre and concerns about Donald Trump’s impact on Canada, many voters who once leaned NDP are now casting their ballots for the Liberals in an attempt to stop what they perceive as a greater threat. Tune in for a data-driven analysis of this critical shift and what it means for the NDP’s chances as the 2025 election unfolds.

With just two weeks to go before Canadians head to the polls, David Coletto dives into one of the most remarkable trends of the 2025 federal election campaign: Prime Minister Mark Carney’s rising favourability numbers. Drawing on the latest Abacus Data polling, David explores why Carney is not just leading in vote intention—but also winning the hearts of Canadians across regions, age groups, and even partisan lines. In this episode of inFocus, you’ll hear how Carney’s net favourables compare to past leaders, what makes his appeal so rare, and why it could be the deciding factor in this election. From Atlantic Canada to British Columbia, among young and old, and even among some Conservative voters, Carney’s popularity is proving hard to shake. As the leaders’ debates loom, David unpacks the strategic implications for the opposition parties and explains why, if nothing changes soon, the Liberals are poised for another win.

In this episode of InFocus with David Coletto, David breaks down the latest Abacus Data poll conducted entirely after Donald Trump’s surprise announcement of reciprocal tariffs. With just under two weeks left in the federal campaign, the Liberals have surged into a six-point lead over the Conservatives—marking the first statistically significant advantage they’ve held since the campaign began. David unpacks what’s driving this momentum shift: strong regional showings in Ontario, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada, a broadening Liberal coalition that includes non-voters and former NDP and Conservative supporters, and rising favourability for Liberal leader Mark Carney. He also explores how shifting perceptions of who’s likely to win—and Carney’s growing lead as the preferred Prime Minister—could reshape the final stretch of the race. If you’re looking for clear, data-driven insights into where the campaign stands right now and where it could go next, this is an episode you won’t want to miss.

In this episode of InFocus with David Coletto, David dives into new Abacus Data polling that shows a high level of engagement among Canadian voters and examines why this heightened attention could shape the outcome of the upcoming leaders’ debates. With the Liberals and Conservatives tied at 39% support, the stakes for these debates—scheduled for April 16 (French) and April 17 (English)—couldn’t be higher. David unpacks how Mark Carney’s positive personal brand, Pierre Poilievre’s combative style, and each leader’s French-language skill might influence their debate performances. He also explores the role that Donald Trump’s ongoing presidency plays in raising concerns about leadership qualities, global challenges, and economic stability. Tune in for data-driven insights and a behind-the-numbers look at whether this unusually engaged electorate could shift Canada’s political landscape in the final stretch of the campaign.

In this episode of InFocus with David Coletto, David shares the results of Abacus Data’s latest polling—conducted from March 31 to April 3—capturing where voters stood just before Donald Trump’s surprise “Liberation Day” tariff announcement. David breaks down the key highlights: the ongoing tie between the Liberals and Conservatives, the surge in Conservative voter motivation, the Liberals’ deepening voter pool, and the leadership impressions shaping public opinion. He also explains how the reprieve from Trump’s tariffs could shift the narrative heading into the home stretch of the 2025 federal election. If you’re following this pivotal campaign, don’t miss David’s insights on the factors that might determine who forms government three weeks from now.

In this episode of InFocus with David Coletto, we examine President Donald Trump’s latest tariff announcement—and Canada’s unexpected exclusion from it. David unpacks fresh polling data on who Canadians trust more to stand up to Trump: Prime Minister Mark Carney and the Liberals, or Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives. With previously announced tariffs still in play, the stakes remain high for Canadian industries. Tune in as David explores whether being spared these new duties helps Carney bolster his claim of effective leadership, or whether it opens the door for Poilievre to focus on domestic issues—and potentially change the game as the campaign finishes its second week.

In this episode of InFocus with David Coletto, I dig into why the Liberals—now led by Prime Minister Mark Carney—are currently the favourites in this federal election campaign. Using advanced analysis from a binary logistic regression model, I break down what’s really driving support for the Liberal Party. We explore how voters’ priorities—like concern about Donald Trump versus anxiety over the cost of living—shape the likelihood of supporting the Liberals, and why impressions of Carney and Poilievre matter so much. I also unpack a few hypothetical voter profiles to illustrate how issue salience and leader perceptions work together to move votes. Whether you’re on the campaign trail, in the war room, or just trying to make sense of the latest polls, this data-driven episode offers insights into how the ballot question is being shaped—and what that means for each party’s path to victory.

In this episode of inFocus with David Coletto, David breaks down the first week of Canada’s high-stakes election campaign and explains why a sudden pivot to confront Donald Trump may not be the smartest strategic move for Pierre Poilievre and the Conservative Party. Drawing on the latest polling data—originally presented at the Empire Club and widely discussed in the media—David explores why the Liberals and their new leader, Mark Carney, have gained momentum by focusing on U.S. threats. He also reveals how the deep desire for change among Canadian voters has not disappeared, and how that undercurrent could still shape the outcome of the election if the Conservatives can keep it in the spotlight. Don’t miss this insightful analysis of one of the most consequential elections in recent memory. Read David's analysis on The Hub: https://thehub.ca/2025/03/29/david-coletto-avoiding-the-trump-trap-why-the-conservatives-might-want-to-keep-change-as-the-election-focus/?utm_medium=paid+social&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=boost

In this episode of inFocus with David Coletto, we dive into Abacus Data’s third poll of the 2025 Canadian election. David breaks down why Liberals and Conservatives are now tied at 39%, how Liberal support edges higher among those most committed to voting, and the demographic shifts reshaping the race. Plus, hear why Donald Trump’s presidency and the cost-of-living crisis are battling it out to become the dominant ballot question. If you’re looking for the latest insights on what’s driving voter intentions—and what it could all mean come election day—this episode has you covered. You can access the full poll results here: https://abacusdata.ca/2025-federal-election-poll-liberals-conservatives-tied/ Subscribe to my substack: davidcoletto.substack.com  

In this episode of InFocus with David Coletto, we dive into fresh survey data revealing why Canadians say they’ll vote Liberal or Conservative in the current federal election. David unpacks the two distinct visions for the country, from those who trust a new Liberal leader to stand up to U.S. trade threats and safeguard social programs, to those rallying behind a Conservative call for change, lower taxes, and a break from what they view as a decade of economic mismanagement. Tune in as David highlights the major themes shaping voter preferences, including leadership, cost-of-living concerns, and strategic voting. Whether you’re curious about the “anyone but Conservative” mentality or intrigued by why some believe it’s “time for change,” this episode explores the personal motivations fueling Canada’s political divide—offering clear insights into the biggest issues at play in the election.

Mark Carney has called the 2025 federal election and the race is on. In this episode of InFocus, David Coletto dissects new Abacus Data poll numbers showing a close contest between Carney’s Liberals and Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives, while Jagmeet Singh’s NDP struggles to gain traction. Learn which regions matter most, which issues will define the campaign, and how volatile voter preferences could shape the final outcome. Stay tuned for an in-depth breakdown of the numbers and what they mean for Canada’s political future.

In this episode of InFocus with David Coletto, we break down the looming Canadian federal election—from Justin Trudeau’s surprise exit and Pierre Poilievre’s stalled vision, to Donald Trump’s game-changing threats and Mark Carney’s sudden rise to prime minister. Tune in for a concise, data-driven guide to the factors reshaping Canadian politics right now.

In this episode of inFocus with David Coletto, we explore how Sun Tzu’s classic principles from The Art of War apply to Canada’s upcoming election. Discover why the Conservatives want to wage battle over cost-of-living while the Liberals prefer to focus on the “Trump factor,” and learn how each party is working to define the campaign on their own terms.

In this episode of inFocus with David Coletto, we break down our newest poll revealing how Canadians view Prime Minister Mark Carney and Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre—two relatively fresh contenders gearing up for an expected federal election. Join David as he unpacks the data behind each leader’s strengths, vulnerabilities, and perceived policy positions, and explores why a significant group of swing voters could tip the balance. If you want deeper insights, including charts and analysis, head over to David’s Substack at davidcoletto.substack.com. It’s a quick, data-driven look at the dynamics poised to shape Canada’s political landscape in the months ahead.

In this episode of inFocus, I dive into the latest political landscape now that Mark Carney is Prime Minister and an election call looms and unpacks Abacus Data's latest poll released earlier today. Discover how the Liberals have rapidly closed the gap with the Conservatives, why Donald Trump remains a polarizing force in Canadian politics, and what these shifts mean for the road ahead. Don't forget to subscribe to my substack!